Category: Africa

Zimbabwe Update

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It looks like the MDC will join the ZANU-PF in a unity government.

Unfortunately, it appears that the MDC will have no control of the state security apparatus, so I’m wondering if this will be as hollow as Nkomo entering government.

Of course, right now, government actually has to work, with current cases of cholera estimated to be in excess of 60,000, and the currency so debased that foreign currencies will now be allowed to be officially used in commerce.

I think that 5 years from now, there will be no Zimbabwean dollar at all.

The EU has tightens sanctions on prominent ZANU-PF members, but I don’t thing that this will amount to much

Laurent Nkunda Captured by Rwandan Army

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His arrest, see also here, comes as a bit of the surprise, as he was always close to the Rwandan army, and his pursuit of the remnants of the genocidal Hutu Interahamwe militias were certainly in agreement with the Rwandan government.

It appears that this might be some sort of quid quo pro, with Congo allowing Rwanda to send in troops to take out the Hutu militias in exchange for neutralizing Nkunda.

Zimbabwe Update

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It seems that on the way out of office, Bush issued an order making it legal to sell arms to Zimbabwe. He found that, “Furnishing of defense articles and defense services to the Southern African Development Community will strengthen the security of the United States and promote world peace,” which authorizes sales to Zimbabwe too.

Meanwhile, the MDC is finally flat out saying that Mbeki is unacceptable as a mediator, which they should have done many months ago.

Of course, Mbeki is still there and mediating, and doing his best to enable Mugabe.

We also have reports of Senior MDC officials being arrested, along with reports of plans for an iminent arrest of Morgan Tsvangerai, head of the MDC.

Unsurprisingly, the most recent set of talks on powersharing have failed.

Zimbabwe Update

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It’s been about 3 weeks since I posted on Zimbabwe, and the news remains remarkably depressing.

While there were indications of some level of dissention within the ZANU-PF at their party congress, Mugabe is still casting all this as an attempt by white farmers to keep their farms, and that was eaten up by the party faithful.

The problem with the land distribution was not that land was seized, but that it was not redistributed, it was simply given to party cronies who have little inclination or interest in farming.

Of course, Mugabe and ZANU-PF are not really to well attached to reality anyway, as evidenced by his claim that he sent invitations for Tsvangerai and Mutambara to further meetings about a unity government, when he hadn’t.

Even if he were to have sent invitations, the meetings would clearly not be in good faith, with mass arrest of opposition and human rights activists, along with his refusal to obey judicial orders to release and/or present them to the court. (also here)

Needless to say, the fact that South Africa is once again covering for this, saying that, this should not delay the formation of a unity government, is depressing.

Both the United States and Britain are now publicly saying that Mugabe cannot be trusted as an honest broker in any unity government.

Finally, Mugabe is saying that he will unilaterally form a new government in February.

On the brighter side, it looks like there is a COPE, the ANC splinter party, calling for sanctions against Zimbabwe.

Given that South Africa supplies much of the power, fuel, and food that Zimbabwe needs, there is a fairly good chance that this stick would have real meaning.

What’s more, Desmond Tutu is suggesting that there needs to be a credible threat of military force against Zimbabwe in order for their to be real change.

When a Nobel Peace Prize winner calls for the Marines…..

The humanitarian nightmare is also continuing unabated, with Cholera still running rampant, and increasing problems with severe malnutrition, particularly among children.

One of the Consequences of the Financial Meltdown

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Is that it has shown to the world that the Neoliberal economic policies of the IMF and world bank are not applied to Europe and the US.

As such, the parties in power in many parts of the world are becoming far less receptive to “soak the poor” policies that have been foisted upon them by international institutions like the IMF and World Bank.

We are the fruits of that revalation going on in South Africa right now, where South African labor unions have extracted changes in policies from the ruling ANC.

The Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) is getting commitments to poverty reduction in exchange for their support of Jacob Zuma in his confrontation with Thabo Mbeki, and now they want a change in focus for the next government.

Of course, moneyed interests are not amused:

Investors fear the left has gained influence over the African National Congress in the past year and believe it might pressure the government to ditch policies that helped spur nearly a decade of growth in Africa’s biggest economy.

Of course those policies haven’t benefited a majority of the population. The argument is that by keeping social programs sparse, and any minimum wage low, that growth would eventually trickle down.

It hasn’t in South Africa, or anywhere else.

In fact, what is arguably the best example of a formerly poor society becoming well off, Singapore.

Its leader in its formative years, Lee Kwan Yoo, made it clear to its capital class, that it would be unacceptable to take it all, that some of the profits had to find its way to everyone.

Fundamentally, if South Africa wants to follow this path, we aren’t talking going Sweden. Simply by raising the minimum wage, improving the access to health care, and making sure that public school is free, available, and universal, you can improve the lot of everyone.

Zimbabwe Update

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On the theory that if it bleeds, it leads, the lead story here is the shooting of the commander of the Zimbabwe Air Force known to be a close ally of Mugabe, in an apparent assassination attempt.

I would be unsurprised if there were more of this.

I am also unsurprised at the African Union’s decision to ratchet up measures against Mugabe and the ZANU-PF. There is a lot of, “There but for the grace of God, go I,” in what has been going on there.

In any case, some things stay the same, like Thabo Mbeki still working for power sharing, and never once laying an ounce of blame on either Mugabe or the ZANU-PF.

I have no clue why anyone in their right mind would treat him with anything but contempt.

Mugabe is attempting to put forward his false “unity government”, by publishing a the government law (it’s a parliamentary thing), though the MDC majority in parliament has no intention of ever taking taking it to the floor.

The same can be said for Mugabe’s “asking” Tsvangirai to allow himself to be sworn in as PM.

Under the current power sharing arrangement, both mean nothing.

In any case Mugabe is now suggesting that there be new elections, which would be even heavier on the violence than the prior ones no doubt.

Anyone who thinks that he will negotiate in good faith, need only look at the speech that he gave to the ZANU-PF annual conference, where he said, “Zimbabwe is mine.”

The only way we will see reform from him is if the sanctions against him are severe enough to coerce his agreement.

One sign that Mugabe is looking to step up the violence is that he is now claiming that the opposition is sponsoring a guerrilla war against him.

The idea of the state security forces of Zimbabwe being unleashed with the fig leaf of a counter-insurgency campaign is appalling.

It is thus no surprise that the MDC is threatening to leave unity talks, which I think is an attempt to get Mugabe to stop disappearing opposition leaders.

Finally, it appears that the cholera epidemic is getting worse.

When the Other Guy is About to Overrun Half Your Country, Don’t Screw Around

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That seems to be basic common sense, but it appears that the government of the Democrat Republic of Congo don’t understand this.

It appears that talks between the government and the National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP) led by General Laurent Nkunda have broken down because they want to bring in other militias….You know, the ones that aren’t on a path to seizing half the country, because they do not have their act together:

The Democratic Republic of Congo government at the weekend invited around 20 other armed groups to participate in the talks, aimed at ending fighting in North Kivu province that has displaced a quarter of a million people since August.

The CNDP and the government of Congo are the only players here, and adding 20 people to the table is intended to simply diminish the CNDP.

Um….Hello? You need to get a clue: The CNDP is kicking the ass of your sorry excuse for the army, and can seize much of the region in a few weeks.

I would note that one of the 20 other groups invited is the genocidal Huto FDLR militia, who are the proximate cause of all this, because when they aren’t trying to kill Tutsi women and children in Rwanda, they are trying to kill Tutsi women and children in eastern Congo, though the governments of Congo and Rwanda have agreed to disband the militia.

Zimbabwe Update

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Well, it appears that I missed a rampage by Zimbabwean troops who had not received their pay, but caught the story that Mugabe is looking at retribution against those soldiers:

In a clear sign that President Mugabe’s hold on his state security machinery is starting to crumble, his once-loyal soldiers ran amok across the capital on Monday after they failed to access their paltry wages in the cash-strapped banks. The unarmed soldiers fought with heavily-armed police and several were arrested.

It was the third outbreak of such violence since last Thursday. The sight of rampaging soldiers was then unprecedented. Army sources said an inquiry had already begun, with dozens facing courts martial. Unconfirmed reports say three of the 12 soldiers who took part in Thursday’s riot have been killed.

So it appears that the rank and file in the Zimbabwean Army are starting to lose discipline.

In the short term, this is troubling, in the medium term, it may mean that Mugabe is closer to being out than I would have believed, and in the longer term, it does not bode well for a post ZANU-PF nation.

In the mean time, things are getting worse, with cholera deaths increasing, and there have been public protests about this from health care professionals.

It’s not just cholera though, the UN has run out of funds for food aid, so for many, starvation looms.

On the bright side, we are seeing a bit of backbone from the African community, with
Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga calling explicitly for Robert Mugabe’s removal and he and ANC president Jacob Zuma have publicly declared that that will work together on the crisis, which is clearly a disavowal by Odinga of Thabo Mbeki.

It’s also interesting that the Kenyan Prime Minister has called for a military intervention to depose Mugabe, followed by war crimes trials.

Hopefully, this means that there will be some meaningful movement (meaningful means out) by Robert Mugabe, but I have a feeling that he will not leave while he is still alive.

Interesting Juxtaposition in the Media Coverage of Africa

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We have this story alleging that Rwanda is behind the insurgency in the east of Congo, and we have this story discussing negotiations between the governments of Rwanda and Congo to disband the FDLR militias.

The Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), are the genocidal criminals who massacred a significant portion of the Rwandan Tutsi population, and once driven from the country, set themselves up in “refugee camps” where their basic food and nature needs are provided for by the UN and NGOs, and have continued to wage genocidal campaigns against Tutsis, both in Congo and Rwanda.

A first step to fixing this is to close down the camps, and considering that the Tutsis have not engaged in mass reprisals in the 18 years since the genocide, these camps are not needed.

As to how to close down the camps? That’s simple, just stop delivering supplies.

This is Not the Onion

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It appears that the The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has issued a statement commending the US and UK central banks for following its lead: See also here):

As Monetary Authorities, we have been humbled and have taken heart in the realization that some leading Central Banks, including those in the USA and the UK, are now not just talking of, but also actually implementing flexible and pragmatic central bank support programmes where these are deemed necessary in their National interests.

That is precisely the path that we began over 4 years ago in pursuit of our own national interest and we have not wavered on that critical path despite the untold misunderstanding, vilification and demonization we have endured from across the political divide.

Yet there are telling examples of the path we have…For instance, when the USA economy was recently confronted by the devastating effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, as well as the Iraq war, their Central Bank stepped in and injected life-boat schemes in the form of billions of dollars that were printed and pumped into the American economy.

(emphasis in original central bank statement)

I don’t know about you, but I’m very relieved that a bank that has engineered a 231 million percent inflation rate (and that’s just the official number) has endorsed our monetary policy.

Zimbabwe Update

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Well, Annan and Carter are calling for the SADC to get off their tuchases and do something, which is unlikely to happen, since they’ve already tried to fob off a phony deal on the MDC.

Thabo Mbeki and most of the leadership of the Southern African Development Community do not want just resolution, because it’s a gun pointed to most of their heads, since much of their opposition comes from the trade union movement too, so a victory will embolden them, which is why they suggested a fictitious “joint ministry” for interior, which is one the primary tools used by Mugabe to maintain control through harassment, violence, and intimidation.

In the meantime, the MDC says that any deal it signs must involve real and profound power, which is not surprising.

ZANU-PF is so blatantly corrupt that they changed an agreed upon document out before signing. (link)

They also note that the illegal detention of MDC activists by agents of the ZANU-PF do not give them cause to believe that talks would be worthwhile.

On the brighter side, if there can be said to be a brighter side in Zimbabwe, it appears taht the general populace has gotten so desperate that they are fighting back against Zimbabwean troops:

Hundreds of angry Zimbabweans attacked soldiers carrying out a crackdown on illegal foreign currency trading in the capital Harare on Monday in a further sign of the country’s collapse.

The crowd hurled stones at the troops and chanted “beat the soldiers,” accusing them of hitting and robbing people during the currency operation.

On the darker side, there has been an outbreak of cholera, killing at least 500, and the response of Mugabe and his associates has been to shut down the municipal water supply, which is more like trying to put a fire out with gasoline than anything I could possibly imagine.

Seriously, while Gordon Brown is calling Iceland a terrorist state, the ZANU-PF government of Zimbabwe is a terrorist government, and a declaration by the US and UK, with the associated freezing of assets held by high level government officials might do something.

These folks are engaging in a terror campaign to maintain power.

Zimbabwe

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It looks like Mugabe is going to be forming a government unilaterally. They have already sent a copy of the legislation to form the government to Thabo Mbeki, who will doubtly side with Mugabe again.

Thankfully, Mbeki is no longer South African president, because if he were, he would never have moved to withhold 300 million rand ($28 million) in Zimbabwe aid over the stalled negotiations.

That’s a positive development, and occurred only because the ANC forced Mbeki out of the presidency.

The War Nerd on Eastern Congo

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His only posts every few weeks typically, and when he covers conflict, there is a glee that is a bit unsettling (he admits it himself), but he knows and understands conflict, both on the tactical level and the social level, to a degree I have not seen elsewhere.

Case in point, his latest post on the ongoing conflict in eastern congo:

Every word, every disgusting damn word, of these BBC and Guardian stories is bullsh@#. actually makes me sick, listening to these stupid lies over and over. The reason Nkunda’s little army (estimates range from 5000 to 10000 men) advanced into Eastern Congo this week is that the Hutu gangs were getting a little too aggressive about jumping ethnic-Tutsi villages in eastern Congo, killing the men and kidnapping women and girls as sex slaves. Nkunda knows very well nobody else will protect the Tutsi, for the simple reason nobody ever has. So he went in to do it himself.

(expletives expurged mine)

Read the whole thing, because it’s a wonderful background on the whole region, Rwanda included, and it makes it clear that the continued operation of Refugee camps by the UN and NGOs long after it was clear that almost all of these people could return home without any major retribution is the real problem here, and not Nkunda.

Quoting again:

The rest fled into the forests of Eastern Congo. They’re the “refugees” that [BBC Reporter] Orla Guerin feels so sorry for: the frickin’ monsters who did their best to kill the whole Tutsi population of Rwanda in ninety days, like they were on one of those timed shopping sprees.

As I’ve said before, I lost most of my respect for the NGO’s, and much in the way of the UN’s refugee apparatus, when they signed off on running concentration camps for the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.

If there were no refugees, they would not have a job, so they do their best to make sure that there are refugees.

Go read the whole thing.

Zimbabwe

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Well, with the election, I’ve taken my eye off the ball with regards Zimbabwe.

It appears that there are two camps in the Zimbabwe crisis among the Southern African Development Community (SADC), led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, who generally cuts Mugabe infinite slack, and President Ian Khama of Botswana, whose opposition to Mugabe is best described as vociferous.

I agree with Mr. Khama.

In any case, the SADC summit was held, and both parties attended, though Tsvangerai made it clear that he would not sign an agreement just to satisfy mediators, which is a not so thinly veiled swipe at Mbeki’s disasterous involvement in the process.

Of course, while this is all going on, ZANU-PF is still engaged in a broad ranging program of harassment, violence and intimidation….Same old, same old….

In any case, it’s refreshing to see that Jacob Zuma, who had Mbeki ousted as South African president, Zuma says SADC summit must force Zimbabwe deal | International | Reuters
is making it clear that he will not accept Mbeki’s do nothing style:

“As far as I’m concerned SADC must make those Zimbabweans reach an agreement,” Jacob Zuma told Reuters after a speech to the Cape Town Press Club. “They must force them.”

So it now appears that there may be a full summit of the SADC, which is pretty much a recognition that Mbeki is simply not up to the task here.

So they held the summit over the weekend, but which came to nothing.

It appears that there was an offer to “co-manage” the home affairs ministry, but I think that it’s clear that the MDC “co-manager” would have no voice in the matter, which they rejected.

In any case, it appears that Mugabe is now saying that he will unilaterally allocate cabinet positions.

One final note is that we now have confirmation of one of the more bizarre aspects of this whole affair, that the ZANU-PF for signing at altered the prior agreement document

Before any progress can be made the SADC leaders will have to resolve the controversy over the documents that were signed by the three Zimbabwean leaders. In an earlier report The Zimbabwean stated that they had been doctored behind Tsvangirai’s back by Zanu (PF)’s Patrick Chinamasa, MDC-M’s secretary-general, Welshman Ncube and one of Thabo Mbeki’s representatives.

We now understand Ncube had nothing to do with the doctoring and we apologise to him unreservedly. Patrick Chinamasa has admitted to tampering with the documents and to “accidentally” deleting two paragraphs which alter the document substantially.

I’m not sure exactly how you deal with people who see this as a legitimate negotiating ploy, and, short of declaring ZANU-PF a terrorist organization, and while it it is actively terrorizing its populace, this would be a misuse of the statute, I’m not sure what the US can do.

African National Congress Party Appears to Be Fracturing

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The splinter group is is calling itself the South African Democratic Congress, and the ANC has sued, claiming that the name is too confusing.

The fracturing of the ANC may be a very good thing. Parties are always opaque to outsiders, and having a meaningful multiparty system tends to bring openness.

I still wonder how much of this is about Jacob Zuma, and how much is an issue of class distinctions between the Oxbridge educated people who have traditionally held leadership roles, and their less cosmopolitan associates.

South African Rooivalk Attack Helo Still in Limbo

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I always thought that this was a promising project, particularly in an COINS application, as the SADF had that as its primary duty before the end of Apartheid.

It appears that I was wrong and the Rooivalk program is a mess (paid subscription required).

Only 12 production helos were delivered, there are no prospects for foreign sales, and they have dissimilar avionics fits across the fleet, and they are now talking about, “revised functionality within the existing allocated financial resources,” which means downgraded capabilities.

Blame the NGOs for the Dead

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Well, right now, there is something very close to a full blown war in the Congo going on, and the proximate cause is the presence of Hutu militias, largely led by the same men who directed the Rwandan Genocide, which is the Causus Belli for Gen. Laurent Nkunda, and his militia.

This problem has two sources, the original Rwandan Genocide, and the actions of NGOs like Oxfam, the World Food Program, CARE, the International Rescue Committee, Caritas Internalis, etc.

They NGOs provided food and support to camps on an indefinite basis, even when it was clear that they were run internally as military bases, so long as no one wore a uniform or carried a gun when in line for food.

While it was understandable in the context of the immediate crisis, it is less so on a continuing basis, particularly when it was clear that the militias in the camp were preventing refugees from returning home.

In so doing they took the tragedy of the Rwandan Genocide, and multiplied it by many times, creating death and warfare across Zaire, later the Democratic Republic of Congo.

As callous as it sounds, if they had had a firm end date in the 6 month range after the refugee flow, everyone but the perpetrators of the Genocide would have benefited, but that’s not the organizational imperative of the NGOs.

It was short sighted, and destructive, just as was their signing off on supporting Serbian concentration camps in Kosovo before the NATO invasion, but without refugees, these organizations have no purpose.

Think about that the next time you are contacted for a donation.