Category: Africa

Thoughts on Kenya

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I don’t know a lot about the place. I’ve never been there, and I’ve never been to Africa, and that continent has never figured prominently on my radar.

That being said, the current conflict appears to be driven by tribal rivalries, which in turn are driven by arbitrary colonial boundaries.

While I do not think that the US should be in the position of drawing boundaries in, or creating countries in, Africa (preventing Genocide is a moral imperative, despite the cowardice of GHW Bush, Bill Clinton, GW Bush, and Condoleeza Rice on this).

However, I do not think that the US should support the policy of the African Union that the colonial boundaries are sacrosanct.

Countries and boundaries have been fluid throughout history, and much of the strife in Africa comes from the insistence that barely viable nation states are forced to muddle on.

Kenya is a tribal conflict, exacerbated by corruption, but the corruption is largely driven by tribalism.

Simply put, when the primary consideration is tribal, clean effective government is at best an afterthought, because your guys have to beat their guys, but if the society is largely homogeneous, ethnic baiting becomes far less effective.

Jacob Zuma Defeats Thabo Mbeki As Head of the ANC

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Basically, this means that he will be elected South African president. While there is a lot of hand wringing about how Zuma won’t be as “investor friendly” as Mbeki, the fact that there was a contested leadership election in the ANC, and that the incumbent lost in a free and fair vote is a good thing.

This is good…it’s called democracy…

I think that its clear that Zuma’s mandate is to improve the lives of South Africans who live in poverty, and as such, members of the foreign and domestic investor class are likely to have to pay a bit more in taxes and fees, but this is a good thing, not a threat to democracy.

He got more votes than the other guy, and it appears that the exhumation of old corruption charges is more about an anti-democratic effort of Mbeki to stay in power than anything else.

France Finally Gets Foreign Sale of Rafale: 14 to Libya

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The deal appears to be done, though there are still “i”s to be dotted and “t”s to be crossed.

This is very good news for both the French air forces, who were looking for foreign sales to drop unit costs, and Dassault, who have been pulling their hair out over the flop that the aircraft has made in the world market.

14 is not a lot, but it makes the aircraft a lot more attractive to a second potential purchaser, as being the only export purchaser tends to create worries about support.