Category: Aviation

X-51 Video Pr0n

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Well, the USAF has finally launched the X-51A Waverider to much self-congratulation, claiming it to be the first Mach 6 air breathing aircraft demonstration.

The thing is, it wasn’t for two reasons, the Australians got to Mach 10 on their tests at the Woomera range, and the test was a failure, with the engine appearing to flame out at Mach 5.

X-51 hypersonic scramjet test: Flameout at Mach 5? • The Register:

The X-51A didn’t fulfil that potential yesterday, however. Having lit up it burned for around 200 seconds, reaching approximately Mach 5 and climbing to 70,000 feet. According to a statement issued by Boeing (whose Phantom Works plant built the Waverider):

Something then occurred that caused the vehicle to lose acceleration. At that point, the X-51A was terminated as planned.

It’s possible to speculate that the flame in the Waverider’s SJY61 scramjet, built by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne, simply blew out. Project officials are still happy with the test, and seem confident that they will be able to achieve the designed speed before running out of test craft – there are three more.

This may actually be more significant that the folks at the USAF/DARPA are letting on.

The real intended breakthrough for the X-51A was that, unlike the Woomera tests, it used a hydrocarbon fuel, it started on ethylene and switched to JP-7, rather than the hydrogen used in earlier tests.

If there are problems sustaining combustion with hydrocarbon fuels, this could be something that slows down the program a lot.

In either case, here is some video Pr0n.
Actual Launch Video


Computer Animation

PAK-FA/T-50 Video and Photo Pr0n

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Click for full size

This shot shows that the fan face is visible.
(Note, full size pic is humongous)


Detail of inlet


A variable geometry radar blocking technology.


Russian with subtitles


A useful PowerPoint from public sources

In terms of the development of the aircraft, it appears that both the Salut and United Engine Corp. (UEC) will work jointly to develop the a 2ndproduction engine for the aircraft, (paid subscription required) in addition to the engine being developed by Saturn, the prototype is flying with a variant of Saturn’s AL-31-F.

This indicates I think that the Russians are placing a lot of importance on the timely service entry of this aircraft, and I think is a far more sensible course of action than the jihad the Pentagon has had against the F136 alternate engine for the JSF, which may lower development costs in the near term, but almost certainly raises costs, and risks in the longer term.

As to stealth, it’s clear from the top two pictures that the engine fan face is clearly visible from a fairly wide (15°+) angle, which implies that some sort of radar blocker must be present. (H/t whoever posted them online)

If you look at the first video (3rd item on right), it looks like they may have a variable geometry radar blocker, which would provide a helical path for air, and signal, under some circumstances, non-maneuvering subsonic CAP, for example, and would provide a straight path when more airflow is desired, such as during a dogfight or supercruise.

Additionally, the bottom video lets drop an interesting manufacturing technology at about 2:25.

The fixtures for composite construction that that they are using have a very different philosophy than those used with US aircraft.

With US aircraft, Invar, which has a low coefficient of expansion, is used, where the Russians are going with tooling that is made from the same composite that is used on the airframe, so it will expand and contract with the underlying structure during the autoclaving process.

I just find this interesting as an engineer.

H/t Bill Sweetman for both vids.

Finally, there is a PowerPoint, h/t Stephen Trimble, which assembles most of the publicly available data on the PAK-FA, and serves to paint a rather more complete picture of the program and its capabilities.

India Restructures MMRCA Competition

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It appears that because of an inability of the Indian defense bureaucracy to evaluate proposals in a timely manner has required that the schedule for the downselect to 3 competitors for the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program be pushed back an indeterminate length of time, (paid subscription required) which, under the terms of the contract, requires a rebid from the competitors.

FWIW, my money is still on MiG winning, the Indians already fly the aircraft, and the Eurofighter, Rafale, and Superhornet are really too large to be “Medium,” the F-16 is also operated by the Pakistanis, and the Gripen, by virtue of being Swedish, does not have the requisite geopolitical pull.

Then again, the final selection still appears to be at least 3 years off, and my powers of prognostication are in serious doubt.

And the Tanker Saga Continues………

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It’s official

There was much hemming and hawing, but the Pentagon offered a 60 day extension for EADS to make the the bid, which will will slip the award of the contract to some time next year and French President Nicolas “Bling Bling” Sarkozy leaned on them to make the bid, so EADS moved forward.

They have entered into entered into negotiations with L-3 as a key supplier, which is basically a way for them to put a bit of a US front on the program tanker.

So, EADS has decided to go it alone, without a US partner, and bid for the contract.

I think that a lot of this is really about maintaining a presence, so as to keep lines of communication open with the members of Congress and the Pentagon staff for future bids, but as Stephen Trimble notes, they do seem to be doing their best to play to win, as evidenced by the talking points they are sending out to Congress, which are a harsh slam of Boeing, noting the fact that their plane is flying, and works, while Boeing’s proposal is not flying, and that the 767 tankers sold to the Italians and Japanese still have issues with their hose and drogue systems.

Because the new contract gives very little in the way of credit for exceeding the basic requirements, this means that their best chance to win this is to show that Boeing cannot be expected to fulfill a contract on time and on budget.

Considering Boeing’s record, this is probably true, but considering EADS’ record **cough** A400M **cough**, it is also true for them.

USAF Decides to Shoot Self in Foot

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Because of delays in the F-35 program, there will be a shortfall in fighter strength for the USAF over the next few decades, so they are looking at service-life extensions for existing F-15s and F-16s, and they have flatly ruled out any purchase of new build legacy fighters.

The idea here is that if they buy them, Congress might be tempted to cancel their white elephant.

BTW, speaking of white elephants, it not looks like the USAF will have to have its other white elephant, the F-22 will have to be escorted by F-15Cs upgraded with AESA radar, since the F-15’s larger antenna size allows for greater jamming capability. Basically, bigger antenna means more AESA modules which means more power and more range, and the AESA functions as a jammer.

Additionally, the F-15, “have the persistence [because of larger fuel loads] to stay there while the [stealthy fighters] are conducting their LO attack”. Note here that the F-15C is about ⅓ smaller than the F-22A, but apparently out-ranges, or at least out-lasts, it.

Your JSF Update

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Carrier Drop test h/t Graham Warwick

First and Foremost, I think that we need to start with the cost escalation of the F-35, with the unit cost estimates having escalated from $113.6 million to 136.2 million over just the past few weeks, which has triggered an official notification of a Nunn-McCurdy breach to Congress, which means that the price has escalated by more than 50%.

In the interest of fairness, Lockheed-Martin is rejecting the Pentagon numbers, and claiming that they will hit, or at least come closer to the original numbers, based on ……… I’m not entirely sure what, possibly reading chicken entrails.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond, both Italy and the Netherlands are making noises about scaling back their purchases/commitment to the program, (paid subscription required)with the Italians demanding a larger workshare, and the Dutch wondering if the entire thing is simply too dam expensive.

Note that the Dutch are supposed to participate in the Initial Operational Test & Evaluation (IOT&E), purchasing 2 aircraft, but they have only contracted for one, and they can sell the aircraft instead of participating in IOT&E.

It all hinges on the upcoming elections.

On the brighter side for the program the first F-35 with a full sensor suite has flown, sort of:

The mission system installed for the initial flight includes the APG-81 active electronically scanned array radar, EW system, integrated CNI, integrated core processor and the pilot’s helmet-mounted display. The electro-optical targeting sensor and 360-deg EO distributed aperture system will be added later.

(emphasis mine)

So the most low observable sensor, and the sensor that is supposed to allow the aircraft to compete against more maneuverable aircraft by giving the pilot a 360° field of view around his aircraft are not yet flying.

Finally, we have an analysis showing that the F-16 in 1998 out-ranges the F-35. Basically a 1998 PowerPoint slide for the F-16 gives a 630 NM radius with conformal fuel tanks on a strike mission on a hi-lo-lo-hi profile with the final 50 NM in and out on the deck, as versus a 728 NM radius for the F-35, which only pops below 5000 feet once.

Additionally, the F-16 carries 2 GBU-10 2000 lb bombs + 2 Sidewanders + 2 AMRAAM, while the F-35 carries 2 AMRAAM + 2 GBU-12 500 lb bombs.

If the F-16 is just carrying 2 AMRAAM + 2 GBU-12, and conducts its operations above at 5000 feet or above, it out-ranges the F-35, and that’s without considering that the F-16 numbers include the drag of an external jamming pod, and modern F-16s have internal jammers.

Finally, for your viewing pleasure, some the Jim Lerher’s News Hour has a segment on the F-35 that appears to cover all the bases.

Elections Have Consequences, Hostages on the Tarmac Edition

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The US Transportation Department has denied a request for a waiver the “3 hours on the tarmac” rule by Jet Blue, Delta, American, Continental, and USAir.

They had claimed that the crowded skys in New York (Philly for USAir) made delays of 3 hours or greater likely, and they wanted relief, but Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood (who is, BTW a Republican, credit where credit is due), denied the request, leaving them unsatisfied:*

Five U.S. airlines lost a bid to exempt New York-area flights from a rule requiring carriers to release passengers from planes stuck on tarmacs for three hours.

Concerns that runway construction at New York’s Kennedy airport will lead to excessive cancellations “can be resolved through more careful flight scheduling,” Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood wrote today in denying the request. Passengers “have a right to know that they will not be held hostage.”

LaHood’s three-hour rule, effective April 29, fines carriers up to $27,500 per passenger for failing to give them an option to exit planes sitting on the tarmac. JetBlue Airways Corp. March 4 requested the Kennedy exemption until Dec. 1 when runway work is complete.

The evidence is fairly clear, that this is a way to avoid having to pay to house and feed passengers on flights that should have been canceled, and it is an egregious excess.

Good for Sec. LaHood

*Yes, I know, a cheap rhetorical twist, but it’s all I got.

Plane Crash Kills Polish President

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It appears that his plane crashed in a heavy fog, while attempting to land in Smolensk, killing Poland’s president, Lech Kaczynski.

He was on his way to the Katyn Woods, where Polish and Russian authorities were to have a memorial service for the Polish officers and politicians murdered by the NKVD in 1940, which is kind of ironic:

Russian emergency officials said 97 people were killed. They included Poland’s deputy foreign minister and a dozen members of Parliament, the chiefs of the army and the navy, and the president of the national bank. They included Anna Walentynowicz, 80, the former dock worker whose firing in 1980 set off the Solidarity strike that ultimately overthrew Polish Communism, as well as relatives of victims of the massacre that they were on their way to commemorate.

…………

Among them, the Polish government said, were Mr. Kaczynski; his wife, Maria; Ryszard Kaczorowski, who led a government in exile during the Communist era; the deputy speaker of Poland’s Parliament, Jerzy Szmajdzinski; the head of the president’s chancellery, Wladyslaw Stasiak; the head of the National Security Bureau, Aleksander Szczyglo; the deputy minister of foreign affairs, Andrzej Kremer; the chief of the general staff of the Polish Army, Franciszek Gagor; the president of Poland’s national bank, Slawomir Skrzypek; and the commissioner for civil rights protection, Janusz Kochanowski.

My condolences to the victims families.

Note that President is a mostly ceremonial position under the Polish system, though a quick search through my archives seems to indicate that he was a bit of a euro-skeptic.

Not a Good Week for the JSF

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The Problem: As development times of microprocessors and cars have remained steady or fallen, fighter development times have exploded.

The GAO has released its report on the JSF, and the nickel tour, as described by Bill Sweetman, is rather brutal:

The good news for the JSF program in the March 20 Government Accountability Office report – combined with the other numbers released in March – is that the program is no longer at risk of failure.

The bad news is that it has already failed.

(emphasis mine)

It’s true.

The $50 million (2002 dollars) affordable aircraft is now a $106+ million ($127+ million for the B & C versions, 2010 dollars) aircraft, and there are still significant technical hurdles to its success:

  • There is no money to pay for the alternate engine (F136).
  • The current engine, the F135 has deep and real cost and performance issues.
    • The term for these first two items is “Catch 22”: You cannot afford a alternate engine, and not having an alternate engine means that you lack a lever to force the contractor to address issues with cost and reliability.
  • Cost reduction efforts have under performed.
  • There are indications that there is significant price elasticity of demand for foreign customers, which means that they will purchase fewer, or cancel contracts, as costs increase, which will further increase unit cost. (See the Danes, below)
  • Direct operating costs are slightly more than the F-15, and significantly more than the F-16 which it is tasked to replace.

DARPA has looked at this, and concluded that the system engineering techniques used in aerospace are largely responsible for the program, because they take the top level requirements and “stovepipe” them down the chain, where they remain isolated until they eventually come together in something that resembles a multi-car pileup

In any case, one of the consequences of the cost and schedule slippage has been that the Danish government has decided to delay any decision on purchasing the F-35.

I see this as a prelude to cancellation: If they aren’t ready to buy the $106 million dollar aircraft now, they won’t be willing to buy the $126 million dollar aircraft in 4 years. (link to Google translation of the report)

Basically, once you commit to a purchase, it’s very tough to pull out, even when the cost escalates, but if you defer the decision, and the cost escalates, it’s a no brainer to stay out of the program.

The program appears to be in a death spiral, where increasing unit costs reduce purchases, which increases unit costs, etc., or to quote The Boss, “It’s a death trap, it’s a suicide rap.”

What I Did This Afternoon

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The Enola Gay


SR-71 Blackbird


A rear view of the Blackbird, illustrating how flat it is


The Boeing 707 prototype, the Dash 80, in the fugliest color scheme I’ve ever seen


Gemini capsule


Samuel Langley’s Aerodrome


Bell-Boeing XV-15 tilt rotor demonstrator


Concorde


Space shuttle prototype Enterprise


Spotted on the tail of an F-14, Felix the Cat from VFA-6

I went to the National Air and Space Museum Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center, located right next to Dulles Airport in Chantilly, VA.

Charlie’s Cub Scout Pack went there for an outing.

While is is a most impressive collection of aircraft, as a museum, it left me a bit cold.

Unlike the branch on the Mall in Washington, DC, this was basically just a shed full of aircraft, and the exhibits, such as they were, were basically just afterthoughts.

I enjoyed myself, but I would much rather go to the DC museum.

OK, The Weird Have Turned Pro: Tanker Tango Edition

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Yes, the Russkys are Proposing a 4 Engine Tanker

So, the Northrop-Grumman/EADS team has bowed out, and EADS CEO Louis Gallois has said that it is impossible for them to make a solo bid by the May 10 deadline.

This is not surprising, they would have to develop a plan to establish a manufacturing facility, reconfirm and/or create arrangements with suppliers, etc.

Well, the Pentagon understands that, and is willing to extend the deadline to allow for a bid from EADS:

The Department has received notification from EADS North America indicating possible interest in competing for the Air Force’s KC-X Tanker and we would welcome that. Consistent with our commitment to conduct a fair and open competition, the Department invites proposals from all qualified contractors and, if necessary, we would consider a reasonable extension to the RFP deadline. That is not unusual. In fact, a few recent examples include BAMS, VH-71, Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) II, LOGCAP IV, LCS, LPD-17 Repair Services, and FMTV.

So, it sounds to me like the USAF really wants to light a fire under Boeing with the prospect of some competition, because otherwise they know that the tanker will be both expensive and late without a the possibility of meaningful competition.

EADS has has not ruled out bidding if the deadline is extended (press release):

EADS will assess new situation on US Tanker Request for Proposal

Leiden, 19 March 2010

Yesterday the US Department of Defense (DoD) indicated it would welcome a proposal from EADS North America as prime contractor for the KC-X tanker competition. This is a significant development. EADS is assessing this new situation to determine if the company can feasibly submit a responsive proposal to the Department’s request for proposal (RFP).

And while this development is a positive sign that the DoD seeks competition, it does not address EADS’ underlying concerns that the RFP clearly favors a smaller, less capable aircraft, and that the additional combat capability offered by our system may not be fully valued.

An important prerequisite for our consideration of entry into this competition will be a significant extension to the period within which to prepare and submit a proposal. EADS welcomes the DoD’s recent statement which indicated a willingness to extend the timeframe. Though this is essential, it is only one factor in making a decision for EADS to compete. In the end, the company will only submit a proposal if there is a fair chance to win, after evaluating all relevant factors.

EADS is a global leader in aerospace, defence and related services. In 2009, the Group – comprising Airbus, Eurocopter, EADS Astrium and EADS Defence & Security – generated revenues of € 42.8 billion and employed a workforce of more than 119,000.

OK, I bet you have a question now, why did I say that this was weird?

After all, this appears pretty normal in the world of defense contractors angling for maximizing their chances at a Pentagon contract.

Well, the weird does not come from Boeing, nor does it come from EADS. Rather we are getting our dose of weird from the Russians, who are proposing that a modified version of their Ilyushin Il-98, called the Il-98, for the competition.

While I can see the aircraft being cheaper, low cost is what Russian aerospace has as its chief asset, I cannot see anyone going with a 4 engine aircraft, the operational costs would be higher.

Furthermore, were a Russian aircraft to get the contract, it would have the effect of reinforcing a world-wide spares and maintenance infrastructure for Russian civil aircraft generally, which would be bad for both EADS and Boeing, since this would make Russian aircraft far more competitive.

My guess is that this announcement involves a sick sense of humor and a bit of Vodka.

Or, perhaps they are trying to get a payment from Boeing not to bid.

(on edit)
My bad, the Russians will be offering a 2 engine based on the Il-96 to create the Il-98, so the economics might not be quite so bad, and given its Soviet origins, it may very well be able to operate off of less robust airfields, since Soviet designs typically have more/larger tires, and so lower ground pressure.

Still, this is just freaky.

Your JSF Update

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Just the landing


The short take off & vertical landing & cheesy music.


F136 at full reheat using JSF nozzle

The aircraft appears to have performed well in this maneuver, though it was conducted at a lighter weight than would be used in combat.

They will be taking the weight up to around 5,000 lbs of fuel and weapons as they expand the envelope.

From the video, there is no evidence of problems with things like spalling the tarmac, but this is at Pax River, and the airfield there is rather robust.

Of course, this technical success does not make the program any better run, as shown by the latest Pentagon price estimates which show the cost of the plane increasing by 90%, to $135 million each, up from the original $69 million ( inflation adjusted, it was $50m in 2001 dollars) promised in 2001.

Additionally, because of cost and weight issues, the F-35 will be eliminating fire extinguishers and “shutoff fuses for engine fueldraulics lines,” which will increase vulnerability to ground fire, and make the aircraft more vulnerable to things like light AAA and small arms fire, which makes it less attractive to operate in a close air support.

All in all, this reminds me of the death throws of the Naval F-111B, where they were literally pulling glass off the gauges and replacing it with plastic, in an attempt to get the weight low enough to make a carrier landing feasible.

Finally, the GE/Rolls-Royce F136 alternate engine has hit full thrust in reheat (paid subscription required) on the test stand, and results indicate a thrust margin above that of P&W’s F135:

With all the improvements in place, DiLibero says Engine 006 test results so far indicate performance and durability is exceeding design expectations and turbine inlet temperatures are cooler than planned. “So that’s more margin for durability, or power,” he adds. GE/Rolls-Royce declines to comment on the top thrust levels achieved in maximum afterburner, but the team previously said it anticipated an estimated 5% margin over the F-35’s baseline Pratt & Whitney F135 powerplant.

“Both engine developers are working to the same specifications, and our customer has made it clear it is not in anybody’s interests to be over. However, we’re on firm ground by saying we have margin,” says F136 marketing manager Tim Morison. GE/Rolls-Royce says the additional thrust may be particularly valuable for increasing weapons bring-back capability and hover performance for the F-35B Stovl version. “We think the three-stage low-pressure turbine is what drives the margin in Stovl,” Morison says.

Considering the cost increases that appear to be in the pipe for the F135, as well as the ongoing issues with bringback weight with the STOVL version, it does seem to me that continued development of the F136 is prudent.

Ummmmm…Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

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We have a report that Denmark is withdrawing from the JSF program, and will instead purchase F/A-18 E/Fs.

Here is the Danish report translated.

I’m not surprised.

When you compare the $50 million F/A-18, with the let’s-be-serious-here $100 million + F-35, and the fact that with global warming and the potential opening of the Northwest Passage, the Danes will need to patrol around Greenland, it gives a 2nd engine has some real value.

Then again, we could have a denial tomorrow.

Why Would the USAF Buy French Mirages?

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Because they don’t want the planes sold to the Iraqi Air Force, and this would take them off the market, so the Iraqis could buy F-16s:

This is an interesting rumor. While the Mirage F-1 has almost reached the end of the line as an operational asset with the AdA, it remains a capable fighter and should stay in service for about another decade with a few other air forces (Ecuador, Morocco, and Iran). The Iraqis have recently requested that France delivers the 24 pre-embargo F-1s ordered at the time by the regime of Saddam Hussein in 1985. The Iraqi air force has a long, and relatively successful, history with the F-1 and is particularly looking forward to rebuilding its air defense capability with an aircraft it knows well. However, things are somewhat more complicated; there has been a long standing rumor of F-16s going to the Iraqi Air Force instead and lately, it would also appear that the UAE Mirage 2000-9s have entered the fray.

Sorry, but if this is true, and note that it only a rumor, some heads should roll.

While I understand how US Air Force officers might favor the F-16, it is something that they are familiar with, the idea that they would purchase the aircraft in order to clear the way for a defense contractor is over the top.

This appears to be a decision driven by a desire by some Air Force officers to secure a cushy gig at Lockheed-Martin in retirement, not a decision driven by the real needs and capabilities of the Iraqi military.