Category: bubble

Signs of the Coming Crash: Exotic Liquidity Instruments

I came across a term that I had never heard before, Dark liquidity pools.

These pools are basically a private and unregulated system of equity and bond trading.

It allows people to execute large purchases and sales without any public knowledge.

An activist hedge fund, for instance, may not want to reveal that it is buying up large blocks of stock in a company it is about to attack, or a mutual fund might want to sell a large amount of stock without causing a downdraft that would hurt any shares it still holds.

In a less enlightened era, this might be called fraud or insider trading, but those quaint notions originating from the FDR era reforms have been set by the wayside as a result of “reforms” beginning in the late 1970s (Thanks Jimmy Carter), accelerating in the 1990s (thanks Bill Clinton), and regulations have been largely ignored in the 2009s.

What’s more, the uses of these instruments are exploding.

The hunger for anonymous block trading has caused the field to explode. There are about 40 active pools, double the number just last year. New pools and services to aggregate them are announced almost every month.

We should be concerned because it is yet another way for the insiders to make money off the information asymmetries in the market, and to further leverage their investments.

Much Like in 1929, theese will come back to haunt us. Without transparency, when reverses will set off a cascade of collapse, much in the way that they did on Black Tuesday, because the public prices will no longer accurately reflect asset values, and people will be trading blind.

Home price depreciation at levels not seen since the Great Depression”

At the Big Picture, there aresome thoroughly shocking quotes from Countrywide Financial Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo.

I agree with Mr. Ritholtz’s assessment that the shocker quote is, “Company is seeing home price depreciation at levels not seen since the Great Depression“.

FWIW, Mr. Mozilo also said, “no one saw the deterioration of real estate values coming“. I beg to differ.

There were a few people, including me, who were noting that house prices were insane, as early as 2002. (Not on this blog, on a message board)

I’ve also said that the dollar and the balance of payments in the US is unsustainable, and this will create a situation where interest rates going up makes real estate illiquid, and rates going down puts the US dollar through the floor.

We’ll see how it goes.

Prime Mortgages Going Bad Too

The refrain of the NAR, and other people pimping for real estate has been that the meltdown will be confined to sub-prime mortgages.

Coffin, meet nail.

Countrywide feels pain of ailing mortgage market – Los Angeles Times
CEO reports that even ‘prime’ borrowers are having more trouble making payments. Company’s second-quarter profit slides 33%.
By Annette Haddad
Times Staff Writer

2:25 PM PDT, July 24, 2007

Shares of Countrywide Financial Corp. tumbled today after the nation’s biggest mortgage lender signaled that rising defaults and delinquencies were spreading beyond the troubled sub-prime market to higher-quality “prime” loans.

The Calabasas-based company reported a 33% drop in its second-quarter profit and slashed its outlook for the rest of the year, citing an “increasingly challenging” housing market.

“We expect difficult housing and mortgage market conditions to persist,” said Countrywide Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo.

During the quarter ended June 30, softening home prices in many areas of the country caused delinquencies and defaults to rise for Countrywide borrowers with all kinds of mortgages, Mozilo said.

People paid more than they could afford for houses because they were afraid that rising prices would lock them out forever, and they paid too much, and got mortgages that were too bkg.

On the HedgeFund/Subprime Meltdown

A survey of what is out there has the New York Post approaching this in its typically sensationalist manner, though there are some pieces of useful information:

HEDGE HORROR

SUBPRIME MELTDOWN COULD WIPE OUT BILLION$

By PAUL THARP
The stunning formal disclosures, which eventually could affect as much as $2 trillion in various mortgage securities, is expected to trigger widespread revaluation of the paper, which some analysts believe could wipe out 40 to 50 percent of their values.
….
“The hedge funds are so over-leveraged, they’ll be the first to crack,” said Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital.

By of perspective, that is about $6500 in mortgage securities for every man, woman, and child in the US, and the point about leverage is a telling one.

….
The housing crunch sent the dollar plunging to a new low against the euro for the second day, to $1.3787. The greenback fell to a 26-year low against the British pound, at $2.0271.

This is where a lot of foreign investment is going, and if it’s scared off, it may not come here at all, pushing the dollar down and interest rates up.

The rather alarmist Post headline is reinforced by the fact that two Bear Stearns mortgage hedge funds have basically been wiped out. Investors have lost everything because of a relatively small drop by virtue of the amount of leverage.

So much for smart investors.

On the other side, we have Ben Bernanke claiming that everything will be fine , that the housing collapse will just a small bump int he road.

Juxtaposed with this, you have Vulture Hedge fund Black Pearl preparing to snap up cheap mortgage securities. They believe that, “The subprime market is approaching a point where ‘widespread price dislocation’ is likely.”

Translated from the legalese, this means that folks are panicking, and they intend to capitalize on this.

I trust them more than Bernanke.

What’s Going On With Subprime Loans

I came across this post at Alea blog, which has a picture worth many thousands of words:


As you can see, the other loan default rates are at or below their levels in the 2001-2002 recession.

The big question is whether the other default rates will follow subprime variable rates.

My guess is yes, for at least 2 of the remaining 3. Notwithstanding the Dow, we are headed for a slow down, and interest rates are going to have to rise. They are still at or near historically, and unsustainably, low levels.

With oil likely to break 90 by year’s end, and trillions in mortgage resets due to hit in the next few years, I see it as getting very, very bad.

And Then There is The Yen Carry Trade

While I have talked about currencies, it has primarily been about the fall of the dollar relative to the Euro. A more significant risk in the short term is a strengthening Yen.

Much of the current investment mania has been driven by the Yen carry trade.

Basically, Japan has the lowest interest rates in the industrialized world, so if one borrows money in Yen, and invests them in another country.

The Japanese interest rates are currently arounc 0.5% (no, I did not misplace a decimal point), so you could invest in the US at around 4-5%, and pocket the difference.

The rates are low because of the long Japanese recession, and deflation, starting in the early 1990s.

The carry trade is not risk free. If the Yen strengthens versus the Dollar, then you have to pay back more dollars, and you can end up losing money.

Japan appears to be finally over its 15 year downturn, it’s economy “grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter”, so it’s likely that the central bank will raise rates, which will bolster the Yen generally.

In any case a rate of 0.5% is simply not sustainable, so it has to go up, and the currency can be expected to go up then too.

So, in addition to the private equity binge, sub prime mortgage securities, exotic mortgages generally, and an IPO boom, we have another potential for a collapse with the Yen strengthening.

Even With the Sub Prime Market Crashing, Bad Paper Still Flows Freely.

People know that this is crashing. People know that someone will be left holding the bag on trillions in bad loans, but they are still making bad loans.

It’s simple: In our “flexible and deregulated economy” the crooks make their money, and get out of town before the house of cards collapses.

At some point, a risk premium will be associated with investing in the US, and it will get very ugly here.

Subprime lending: Business as usual

A consumer group charges that many subprime lending abuses continue to plague the lending industry despite the recent crisis.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
June 28 2007: 3:25 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — It would appear that subprime lenders have yet to learn from their mistakes. According to a consumer advocate group, abuses persist industry wide, despite the recent subprime mortgage meltdown.

At a Senate subcommittee hearing on ending mortgage abuse this week, the Center for Responsible Lending (CRL) presented its findings on subprime loans included in 10 recent packages of mortgage backed securities.

“A lot of the terms that make these loans so dangerous are still being used,” said Keith Ernst, CRL’s senior policy counsel. “We had been told that these things are going away.”

More than three quarters of the subprime loans CRL looked at turned out to be adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). 90 percent of those were hybrid ARMs – otherwise known as “exploding” ARMs.

Hybrid ARMs have two- or three-year periods of cheap, low-interest, fixed-rate payments, or “teaser rates.” But after two years, the loans reset at much steeper rates, which can prove fatal for homeowners who can’t handle the higher payments.

On a $200,000 loan with a teaser rate of 5 percent, for example, borrowers would pay about $1,074 a month. At reset, the interest rate could jump to 8 percent, adding nearly $400 to payments, which could continue to increase every six months.

Private Equity is Not Trying Blackmail Over Tax Code

It appears that the managers of private firms are threatening to stop doing deals if they don’t get to keep their tax loophole.

This is bulls%$#. A private equity firm that does not do deals is shut down. Furthermore, they make a lot of money now.

While I do not support the capital gains tax break, I don’t see why we should favor unearned income over that created by honest work, the theory is that you reward people for risking their own money. Here, their fees are for managing someone else’s money. It’s normal income period.

Two Million Adjustable Mortgages to Reset

You heard right, over the next few months, TWO MILLION mortgates will reset:

Borrowers who took out hybrid ARMs in 2004 and 2005 to secure low “teaser” rates for the first two or three years of the loan may see their monthly mortgage payments climb by 35 percentor more.

….

“In October alone more than $50 billion in ARMs will reset,” according to Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody’s Economy.com. That’s a record, according to Zandi.

I paid 20% down in 2004 for a 30 year fixed.
I fully expect to be under water at some point in the near future, dispite the fact that the value increased by over 40% from 2004-2006.

More Blood in the Hedge Fund/Derivative Water

My commentary is at the end.

Italease blow-up stokes derivatives fears
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 1:47am BST 05/07/2007

A derivative blow-up at the Italian bank Italease has sent tremors through Milan’s banking fraternity and exposed the hidden dangers of exotic credit instruments.

The bank has paid off 610 million euros (£419m) in recent days to counter-parties in what amounts to a massive margin call after interest rate rises in Europe caused hedging and derivative losses by clients to mushroom out of control.

The share price has tumbled 9pc so far this week, and is down 64pc since the troubles first began to emerge in April.

“These derivatives were very complex and suddenly turned against us,” said Pierantonio Arrighi, the bank’s spokesman.

Think about that last statement. They are saying that they do not understand the instruments that that they are investing in.

This is a freaking bank, and they do not understand the instruments that that they are investing in.

Jeebus.

Would someone put adults in charge?

Home Foreclosures: This is Not San Francisco, Florida, or New York.

One of the things that is going on right now is that the bottom of the housing market has stopped selling.

This IS going to work its way up the chain.

Increasing Rate of Foreclosures Upsets Atlanta
By IKAS BAJAJ

ATLANTA — Despite a vibrant local economy, Atlanta homeowners are falling behind on mortgage payments and losing their homes at one of the highest rates in the nation, offering a troubling glimpse of what experts fear may be in store for other parts of the country.

The real estate slump here and elsewhere is likely to worsen, given that most of the adjustable rate mortgages written in the last three years will be reset with higher interest rates, said Christopher F. Thornberg, an economist with Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. As a result, borrowers of an estimated $800 billion in loans will be forced in the next 12 months to 18 months to make bigger monthly payments, refinance or sell their homes.

A big reason the fallout is occurring faster here is a Georgia law that permits lenders to foreclose on properties more quickly than in other states. The problems include not just people losing their homes, but also sharp declines in property values, particularly in lower-income and working-class neighborhoods.

The Real Estate Panic Begins

Markets do not react in linear ways. They are vehicles for mob psychology, so people hold on past where the top should be, and then panic, and head for the door.

This is panic time.

Future shock: Central Florida markets will fall
A short-sale expert says he can predict market slumps by client traffic. Next stop: The Sunshine State.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
July 6 2007: 12:55 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — A tidal wave of foreclosures may be heading toward Florida, if you judge by the number of homeowners looking to get rid of their homes as fast as they can.

Duane LeGate, president of House Buyer Network, arranges quick sales for home owners in distress. He claims he can predict where markets will go bad by looking at the traffic on his Web site.

“We can tell you what’s going to happen nine months from now,” he said. His most endangered market right now is Orange County, Florida, home of Disney World.

“Orlando has blown up. There’s been a 700 percent increase in traffic of people filling out our forms,” he said. “I could put a bull’s-eye on Orlando and write the headline for what will be going on in January and February.”

What will be going on could include a large increase in foreclosures as well as lower prices, longer inventories and a slower sales pace.

Here’s how the House Buyer Network works: A homeowner wants a quick sale and signs up. The network connects the homeowner with a real estate agent who gets an appraisal for, say, $200,000. The agent markets the home at $195,000. If it fails to sell within the time stipulated in the contract, the agent will buy the house at a prearranged, discounted price of perhaps $180,000.

LeGate estimates the discount from what sellers would get if they didn’t need to sell quickly is 5 percent to 8 percent, once all the costs and fees are figured in.

LeGate’s forecast runs ahead of the latest home price statistics. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Orlando prices for the first quarter rose 2.5 percent compared with a year ago, which would point to a weak – but more stable – market. Nevertheless, LeGate trusts his indicators.

….

People Cannot Sell Their Hedge Fund Investments at ANY Price.

There is something like 500 trillion in instruments like this. What happens if even 5% of that goes south?

Buyers avoid Bear Stearns’ cut-priced sale
By James Mackintosh and Gillian Tett in London

Published: July 4 2007 03:00 | Last updated: July 4 2007 03:00

Investors in the worse-hit of two stricken Bear Stearns hedge funds are offering to sell their holdings for as little as 11 cents on the dollar but still finding no buyers, according to unfilled trades on Hedgebay, a secondary market for funds.

Vulture funds and others have been quick to bid for holdings in the two funds, but the best bid for Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leveraged Fund, the more geared of the two, is just 5 cents on the dollar.

Private sales of stakes are the only way investors can exit the two Bear funds, after the bank suspended redemptions in May amid a wave of withdrawals.

“There are buyers but they can’t agree on price,” said Jared Herman, co-founder of Bahamas-based Hedgebay.

The less-geared Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund, which the bank has rescued with a $1.6bn loan, is being offered at about 70 cents on the dollar. The fund is only attracting bidders at about 30 cents, according to people who use the system.
….
The Enhanced Leverage Fund’s net assets of $638m were more than 10 times geared in March, meaning a drop of just 10 per cent in the value of its holdings would wipe out investors.

drop of half the value is not unrealistic right now if a seller needs to sell

A 50 percent drop means that anyone who has bought or refinanced in the past 15 years would be owing more than they could sell the home for.

This is why short sales, where the bank accepts a loss, are becoming more common.

Seller cuts price of house by $1 million

Mary Anne Windes, a veteran broker in Destin who has Real Estate Professionals of Destin, said in an e-mail interview, “The trend is that prices are moving to the same level that they were in 2003. As you will recall, 2004 and 2005 saw tremendous and often unrealistic growth. The market has now corrected itself. Many properties doubled in value during that time, so a drop of half the value is not unrealistic right now if a seller needs to sell.”

United Capital Asset Management hedge funds halt withdrawals – Jul. 3, 2007

This is called a run on the bank, and when investments start to become illiquid this way, people lose everything.

United Capital Asset Management hedge funds halt withdrawals
Embattled hedge fund management group suspends redemptions from four funds following losses in subprime mortgages.
July 3 2007: 3:43 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — United Capital Asset Management has temporarily suspended payments from four of its Horizon funds following losses from its investment in subprime mortgage bonds.

….

In the past ten days, the firm received an unusually high number of redemption requests, including one from its largest investor which accounts for one-quarter of the firm’s assets under management.

Where People Will Find Themselves Under Water with Their Mortgages

Under water means owing more than it is worth.

Top 10 Places Where the Housing Bubble Will Bust
The current housing bubble first reared its ugly head in 1997. Prices began to climb so rapidly that they quickly became unaffordable for potential buyers making the median household income. By 2006, some of the air started being released from the bubble, and now the balloon is on the verge of busting.

What Goes Up…Must Come Down
Experts say that prices need to fall to 1997 levels to be sustainable.

Which experts? Nice Chart though. Also, there is always an overshoot.

Metro Area 2007 Price 1997 Price* % Decline to Return to 1997 Prices
SF-Oakland-Fremont, CA $748,100 $288,484 61.4
Miami-Ft Lauderdale, FL $385,300 $148,900 61.3
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA $404,400 $157,011 61.1
Sarasota-Bradenton, FL $337,000 $135,977 59.6
Los Angeles, CA $589,800 $241,976 58.9
San Diego, CA $595,200 $249,553 58.0
Orange County, CA $697,300 $293,362 57.9
San Jose-Sunnyvale, CA $788,000 $390,660 50.4
Nassau-Suffolk, NY $479,800 $240,933 49.7
Sacramento, CA $365,500 $196,738 46.1

*1997 prices have been adjusted at the general inflation rate and are reported in 2007 dollars.

Note also, that anyone who got a conventional old fashioned mortgage, 20% down, fixed rate, will be under water in these locations, and in many more not shown.

For those with interest only, no money down, negative equity, 5% down, etc., these numbers will be much higher.

Rich People Are the Only Ones Still Buying Houses in NY.

Condos in New York are seven figure, and sometimes eight figure purchases.

The very well off, as opposed to the hyper-rich, cannot afford this, and they buy into co-ops.

The housing market is losing ground everywhere except with the at the very, very, very, top.

Co-ops Slip, but Condos Lead Rise in Manhattan Apartment Prices
By CHRISTINE HAUGHNEY

While housing prices are falling in many parts of the country, the cost of a Manhattan apartment is continuing to rise over all. But a stark divide is emerging between the prices of co-ops and condominiums. More buyers are choosing condominiums over co-ops and are paying far more for them, according to studies being released today.

The average price of a condo in Manhattan rose by as much as 28 percent in the second quarter of this year compared with last year, according to data tracked by four large real estate brokerages. In the same period, the average co-op price dropped by as much as 10 percent. Buyers paid an average of $1.49 million for a condominium, compared with $1.13 million for a co-op, according to figures from Brown Harris Stevens.

Brooklyn did not share Manhattan’s price rise. There were more deals, but the average apartment price dropped by 4 percent, to $629,000, compared with last year, according to data from the Corcoran Group.