Category: Campaign Finance

Economics Update

No Comments

If anyone thinks that real estate can lead us out of of a recession, or even that we can, as Mssrs. Obama, Geithner, Summers, etc., think that we can reinflate the bubble, you need to look no further than the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales index, which fell 16% in November well under the forecast of -2%, though it is still up year over year.

They are trying to reinflate a balloon with a hole in it.

In any case, the horrible housing numbers drove treasury prices up as investors fled to safety.

It does appear, however, that foreign investors were going elsewhere, with the dollar falling against the yen, and in energy .

Not Enough Bullets

No Comments

AIG general counsel Anastasia Kelly is to receive millions in dollars in severance after her pay was cut by Obama’s “pay Czar”.

I would note that she is the only one of the AIG executives to go through with their threat to leave, which implies that she might have been pushed, and as general counsel, she doubtless played a central role in the creation of these severance deals.

Sorry, but I think that it is time for the DoJ and SEC to see if she was doing something illegal in the way of self dealing.

Considering her background, she was also general counsel at the MCI/Worldcom, perhaps the bar association should investigate her too, since they can take action against incompetent lawyers.

Another Endorsement from Your’s Truly

No Comments

Marcy Winograd, who is running against Blue Dog Jane Harman in CA-36. I got an email from them, which means that they are hitting the “Q-list” blogs, which is a low cost high reward strategy.

After all, if you want someone’s support, sending an email is a virtually free way of asking them for it.

It should be noted she ran against Harman in 2006, and scored a respectable 37.5% of the vote, and Harman has actually improved as a result of that challenge.

It should be noted though that Harman ran in the 1998 Gubernatorial primary as being, “the best Republican in the Democratic Party,” so improvement is not difficult to achieve.

She is, and remains, a Blue Dog puke.

In any case, she is now on my Act Blue page, as well as having a direct donation page her web site.

Text of letter after break:

Marcy Winograd For Congress


Dear Friends,Marcy Winograd For Congress

If you’re like me, one of your hopes for 2010 is that our government accomplishes a great deal more than it did in 2009.

Frustration has become the norm. Yet as we close out the year, you have a very specific choice to make: Do you allow that frustration to become apathy or action?

Will you support the status quo or those that believe better decisions can and should be made in 2010?

Please help me end 2009, literally and figuratively, by donating to my June 2010 campaign against Blue Dog Democrat Jane Harman in CD 36.

I have been a community activist for decades, fighting for education funding, affordable access to health care, worker and consumer protections, and the environment.

Nothing, however, is more pressing than the issue of jobs. We can and must reinvest in America – converting an economy currently based on making war overseas into one that makes better schools, roads, bridges, railways, and new Green Industries at home.

As we come to the end of the year – you can take action right where you’re sitting by making a decision to end Jane Harman’s 12 year effort to become the Lieberman of the House, largely serving the interests of large corporations and military contractors.

Contribute before January 1 to elect a true Democrat – not one who proudly accepted the label of “best Republican in the Democratic party.”

As I campaign up and down the 36th congressional district (West LA to San Pedro), I hear the same question over and over: “How are you going create jobs?”

I tell people we must fight for a Green New Deal, modeled after the New Deal of the Great Depression.

There is 200-billion left over from TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program) that we can use not to bail out corrupt banks – but for common good: the creation of a sustainable economy.

While some banks may be reticent to accept the TARP funds, the aerospace industry is not. Its association has explicitly asked for 6-billion in TARP to create new jobs.

We can immediately contract with regional aerospace companies, not to build more bombs, but to create jobs in the New Green Economy. We need their engineering know-how and skilled workforce to build rapid transit and develop solar and wind resources that will make us strong and energy independent.

Jane Harman has spent too many years lobbying for weapons contracts, failing to expand the reach of aerospace beyond a permanent war economy.

We have only until Thursday at midnight to show people sitting on the fence that 2010 can be very different.

Help elect a REAL Democrat – a teacher, an anti-war leader, an environmentalist – in California’s June 8, 2010, Democratic Party primary. Contribute before midnight Thursday.

With great thanks for your support,


Marcy Winograd

To donate, please click here.
To get updates, please click here.
Forward to a Friend

facebook icontwitter

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

No Comments

Remember Parker Griffith, the DINO Congressman who turned ‘Phant today? (link)

Well he, donated $1,500.00 to Howard Dean in 2004.

He also donated a grand to Harry Reid in 2003, and $500 to Evan Bayh in 2006, and $500 to Harold Ford in 2005.

And yes, I am banging my head against the keyboard over this.

For the other three, I can kind of get, but for Howard Dean, the candidate from the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party?

I is confused.

Economics Update

No Comments

Well, someone sliced and diced the numbers, and the unemployment picture continues to improve, with unemployment dropping in 36 States in November, though this U3, and not the more expansive, and to my mind more accurate U6.

We are also seeing a marked improvement in German business confidence this month.

In real estate, we have another shoe dropping, with Moody’s Investors Service stating its intend to review $143 billion in residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) with an eye toward downgrading them, because their loss rates have continued to climb.

In currency and energy, the reversed the past few days’ course, with oil rising, and the dollar weakening, but these may just be traders unwinding positions that they accumulated over the past week.

Economics Update

No Comments
Click for full size

h/t Calculated Risk

Yea, sure, the recession is over. That’s why initial jobless claims rose again this week, up 7000 to 480,000, and continuing claims rose as well, though the 4-week average fell.

I’m beginning to think that those “stunning” NFP payroll numbers in November were an artifact of a seasonal correction of some kind.

In any case, real estate is not looking so hot, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising again, and the estimates for the “shadow inventory” in housing , basically homes that are being foreclosed on, or are being held off the market by the foreclosing institutions to keep from depressing prices too much was revised upward:

The number of homes that may be in the pipeline for a sale because of foreclosure and delinquency climbed about 55 percent to 1.7 million at the end of September, according to estimates by First American CoreLogic.

The “shadow inventory” rose from 1.1 million a year earlier. Such properties include those taken over by banks and mortgage companies and those where the loans are at least 90 days delinquent, the Santa Ana, California-based research firm said in a report today. The number of unsold homes listed for sale was 3.8 million in September, down from 4.7 million a year earlier, First American said.

So I think that any claim to a recovery in residential real estate has been, greatly exaggerated.

That being said, the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, as well as the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s Business Outlook Survey both showed signs of growth, though, as Calculated Risk notes, the recovery is weaker than in earlier months, indicating, perhaps, the start of a “W” downturn.

In either case, the LEI and the Philly Fed report did not seem to have much of an effect on Treasuries, which rose, meaning that the yield dropped, largely on concerns about Greece.

This sentiment also drove the dollar up.

In energy, the strong dollar drove oil down, but natural gas rose, largely on the cold weather and smaller than expected inventory numbers.

Economics Update

No Comments
Click for full size

H/t Calculated Risk


H/t Calculated Risk


The 2006 spike is just before the new bankruptcy law
h/t Calculated Risk,

Well, we are in for a bumpy ride, with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey falling 21 points in November. (top pic)

It’s still positive, barely, meaning that there is expansion, but it is a rather precipitous drop.

We also saw US industrial capacity utilization rise in November, (2nd pic down) so it appears that there is an upswing going on, albeit a slow one.

Even so, we are saw both homebuilder sentiment falling (3rd pic down), credit card chargeoffs rising (bottom pic), and the Architecture Billings Index falling in November on the other side of the ticket.

In energy, oil rose for its first time in 10 days, and in currency, the dollar was up, hitting an October high.

I Am Glad that I Pulled My Email(s) from the OFA Mailing List

No Comments

Because I don’t get the sort of blatantly dishonest fundraising pitches that Kos gets:

We will not back down

From: President Barack Obama to Markos

Markos —

As we head into the final stretch on health reform, big insurance company lobbyists and their partisan allies hope that their relentless attacks and millions of dollars can intimidate us into accepting the status quo.

So I have a message for them, from all of us: Not this time. We have come too far. We will not turn back. We will not back down.

But do not doubt — the opponents of reform will not rest. So I need you to fight alongside me.

We must continue to build out our campaign — to spread the facts on the air and on the ground, and to bring in more volunteers and train them to join the fight. I urgently need your help to keep this 50-state movement for reform going strong.

Please donate $5 or whatever you can afford today:

http://my.democrats.org/…

Let’s win this together,

President Barack Obama

I agree with Markos Moulitsas:

This is so freakin‘ obnoxious I can hardly stand it. We are about to get a turd of a “reform” package, potentially worse than the status quo. We have the insurance industry declaring victory, Republicans cackling with glee, and the administration is using that piece of sh$% to raise money?

($% mine)

I can think of no better way to demoralize the base than for Obama and His Stupid Minions™ to keep acting this way.

It’s enough to make me wonder if he is a Manchurian candidate, only it’s not bin Laden who’s backing him, it’s Dick Cheney….

And then the drugs kick in, and I feel much better…

Shadenfreude

No Comments

Remember when I talked about the folks at AIG who were threatening to leave because the Pay Czar wants to limit their pay to just $½ million?

Well, one of the most vociferous opponents of the pay limits, AIG General Counsel, Anastasia Kelly, has been informed that her services are no longer required.

Considering her history, that, “before joining the bankrupt firm, was a GC at such reputable organizations as MCI/WorldCon (sic) and Fannie Mae,” I’m not sure why anyone would require her services ever.

Heh.

As I’ve said before: The US government is a majority shareholder in the insurance firm, and as such, it should be making it clear to the board of AIG that they would enforce non-compete agreements to the fullest extent of the law.

Back on My Act Blue Page

No Comments

Regina Thomas is running again against John Barrow in the Democratic primary for Georgia’s 12th Congressional district.

This will not be easy, she got only 24% last time, but this time, John Barrow won’t have Barack Obama recording an endorsement for him, and Barrow has been down the line against Obama’s initiates, which should play poorly with the primary electorate.

In any case, she is now on Matthew Saroff’s Act Blue Page again.

Posts from the last election cycle are here.

I Loves Me Some Good Parody

No Comments

And the folks at New York Magazine have riffed on Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book Too Big to Fail, an account of the financial meltdown, and come up with Too Big to Fail and ZOMBIES.

Do not read this while drinking anything, or you will need to clean your screen.

Here is a sample:

It made for an awkward moment, as Merrill CEO John Thain was only seats away. He was likely the next to get the plague, the executives well knew, as his firm was full of the deathless monsters. He had remained notably silent during the exchanges.

“You guys get this done for me, and I’ll make sure I can take care of AIG and Merrill,” Paulson replied. “I’m a little uncomfortable talking about Merrill with John right in the room.” He glanced uneasily at Thain, whose face, everyone suddenly became aware, had taken on a deathly pallor. “John,” said Paulson hesitantly. “Have you been bitten?”

It was then that Thain let out a gutteral animal howl. Half-rising from his chair, he lunged toward Pandit. “BRAINS!” he moaned.

“Holy sh%$!” exclaimed Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack, who was sitting in between the men. He rolled his chair out of the way.

Geithner ran out of the room, screaming like a little girl.

(emphasis mine)

I needed to clean my screen.

People to Whom You Should Consider Giving Money To

No Comments

The following congressmen, Ann Kirkpatrick, Harry Mitchell, Gabrielle Giffords, Dennis Moore, John Hall, Alan Grayson, Mark Schauer, Mike Arcuri, Steve Kagen, Jerry McNerney, Melissa Bean, Debbie Halvorson, Bill Foster, Tim Walz, Bill Owens, Carol Shea-Porter, Tim Bishop, Dina Titus, Mary Jo Kilroy, and Kurt Schrader all voted for healthcare reform and against the Stupak amendment, and they all have districts that imply a close election.

See this ActBlue link.

You can donate to them all at once at the link, or separately, as, for example, Grayson has already raised over $400,000 on act blue, and Melissa Bean is way too friendly with the banking industry, though she is good on other things.

I Get Emails from Politicos Raising Funds

No Comments

In this case Frank Kratovil, who was looking for both money and sweat equity.

My reply:

I live in Owings Mills, very close to your district, and might be inclined to contribute or volunteer for efforts in Baltimore County, except for the vote on Healthcare Reform.

First, I do not believe that this would be a good use of my time. As Harry S Truman said, “Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time,” and I believe that the voters of MD-1 will choose the real Republican regardless of what I do.

Secondly, on a more personal level, I am self-employed, and use MHIP for my insurance, because there is no other insurance available due to my wife’s pre-existing conditions, and I have seen cuts in coverage and a rate hike in excess of 50% just this year.

Third, anyone who cites the Washington Post editorial board on healthcare [he linked to some WaPo Op/Eds], where they have consistently and deliberately got the facts wrong, is being either clueless or disengenuous.

So long, and thanks for all the fish.

—
Matthew G. Saroff

And yes, I did reference Hitchhikers.

Economics Update

No Comments
Click for full size


Employment Chart H/t Calculated Risk

Home Vacancy, Home Ownership Rates, and Rental Vacancy Rates Also Courtesy of Calculated Risk


Some Improvement on Homeowner Vacancy Rates


Note that the Rental Vacancy Rate is an All Time High

Thursday is the new jobless day, and new unemployment claims were basically flat, falling from 531,000 initial claims to 530,000. The 4 week moving average, a generally better metric, was down to 526,250, from the previous week’s 532,250, and continuing claims fell to 5,797,000 down 148,000 from last week’s 5,945,000.

All in all, generally good news.

Additionally, US GDP increased at a 3.5% annual rate in the 3rd, which is a solid, though not stellar, growth rate.

By way of example, the recovery in the early 1980s was around 7% for a full year.

There is also the question about how much of this was driven by cash for clunkers driven auto sales, and the first time home buyer’s tax credit.

The former has expired, and the is due to expire, though I would only give it a 1:2 chance that Congress won’t renew it.

In any case, the 30-year fixed mortgage was basically flat this week.

The market’s reaction to the GDP news was as expected.

There was movement from safety to higher rates of return, which drove US Treasuries down, and their yields up, and the Dollar fell.

Anticipation of a recovery also drove oil higher, to back above $80/bbl.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

No Comments
Click for full size

H/T Calculated Risk for the Graph Pr0n


Yeah, CR again, this time LA Port Traffic

Notwithstanding green shoots, it still appears that consumers, who account for 70% of GDP,* remain pessimistic, with the Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 69.4, down from August’s 73.5, and well below the forecast that the number would be flat.

On the other hand, industrial production rose 0.7% in September, and capacity utilization (see top graph) rose to 70.5%.

You also have a secondary indicator of the economy, port traffic for the LA/Long Beach ports continues to fall.

Additionally, the banks who actually do make loans to real people, as opposed to the Wall Street parasites, are not doing well, with Bank of America posting a loss, and credit card delinquencies are rising.

Wall Street may be doing fine, but main street is still being hammered.

Meanwhile, in energy, the industrial production numbers drove oil to a 12-month high, and the US dollar recovered a bit, though it is still down for the week

*Or maybe not, see here.

Washington Post Reporters Don’t Actually Read the Washington Post

No Comments

Paul Kane, writing for the Washington Post, notes that Democratic political committees are seeing a major drop in fund raising, but he assigns blame to, “Complacency among their rank-and-file donors and a de facto boycott by many of their wealthiest givers, who have been put off by the party’s harsh rhetoric about big business.”

It ain’t complacency, it’s anger and demoralization, because the Democrats in general and Barack Obama in particular, have folded any time the small by historical standards Republican minority has gotten their nose out of joint.

I saw that in the paper today on the front page, and by paper, I mean paper, I have the ink and newsprint sitting by my keyboard.

You know what else I saw in the paper, just today?

Let me make this clear, this is just what is in today’s Washington Post.

When you add in:

  • Obama’s support of the status quo on gays in the military, the Defense of Marriage Act.
  • Support of Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers and His Evil Minions™ on the idea that there should be no meaningful accountability for banks or their executives.
  • His phony reforms on the state secrets privilege.

Is it any wonder that people are disinclined to donate money to a Democratic Party fund raising apparatus that he is firmly in control of?

You know, if Barack Obama showed a little bit of guts, members of the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party might be inclined to have his back.

But when you are in Baucus and Conrad’s corner, you ain’t in ours.