Category: Congress

Election Update

Well, the Franken campaign is now explicitly claiming that it is in the lead over Coleman, maintaining that his campaign is using bogus challenges to keep their numbers up.

They say that their lead is somewhere in the mid 20 vote range (here and here)

Basically, they took notes of all the challenges, and recorded the precinct staff’s opinion as to the clear intent of the voter.

Additionally, it appears that 133 ballots have gone missing from a solidly Franken precinct.

Even if the missing ballots are a clerical error, and I doubt it, it’s been clear from the start that Coleman is going full Bush 2000 on this.

Election Update

Nothing on Georgia, polls haven’t closed, and I don’t have access to exit polls, this is all him, Al Franken,* in Minnesota.

The lede has to be that they found 171 uncounted ballots in Ramsey County, a Franken stronghold, and heads are exploding in the Coleman campaign.

Based on the percentages there, that should net around 30 votes for Franken.

Even so, there are indications that the two campaigns are trying to make nice, or at least appear to, as they are suggesting withdrawing some of their more stupid ballot challenges.

My suggestion: never trust a smiling Republican, and Norm Coleman is always smiling.

Meanwhile the good folks at TPM Election Central have a rundown on recent developments, in addition to the found ballots, we have a further narrowing in the vote, and the
Secretary of State, Mark Ritchie, has instructed local election officials to separate rejected absentee based on the reasons for rejection, which indicates that he is taking Franken’s challenge to the rejection of about 1K ballots seriously.

My take is that it will all come down to the challenges, and that the Coleman campaign has been much more aggressive with these, so I would give a very slight advantage to Al Franken.

*It’s a roughly 30 year old reference to a running sketch on Saturday Night Live.

Elections Updates

A setback for Franken:

The State Canvassing Board, a panel of five arbiters charged with determining the winner in the overtime election tussle between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and Democratic rival Al Franken, unanimously voted this morning to deny the Franken campaign’s request that rejected absentee ballots be included in the recount.

I still say that it will come down to the challenges.

Election Updates

The recount in Minnesota is getting increasingly conentious in Minnesota, with ballot challenges on the increasing on both sides, (click image for current graph) and the Franken campaign expressing concerns about missing ballots to the Secretary of State.

Additionally, the Franken campaign is claiming that Norm Coleman and His Evil Minions&trade are using bogus challenges to keep his total above Franken to influence the canvassing board, which will make the final decision on challenged ballots.

It’s going to be a while before this is all sorted out.

Election Updates

Well, Franken is still down, but Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com says that his math has Franken to winning the recount by 27 votes.

He notes that his number have error bars much larger than 27 votes though, but Nate did call a Begich win the day after the election.

That being said, he is also not considering either the thousands of challenged ballots or rejected absentee votes, and those numbers dwarf his error bar too.

Meanwhile, in the Georgia Senate runoff, the ‘Phants fracked up big time. They sent out a mailing to Republithug voters to get thm to vote by absentee ballots, and neglected to mention that they should sign the applications:

Many of the unsigned requests came in the form of cards printed by the Republican National Committee and mailed to voters. Republican U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss is in a tight battle to retain his seat by beating Democratic challenger Jim Martin.

The signature line on the RNC cards is easy to miss since it appears after an entry asking voters to enter an address different from their permanent one. Georgia doesn’t require voters to give a reason for voting by absentee ballot.

OOPS.

We also have Tom Perriello certified as defeating racist scumbag Rep. Virgil H. Goode by 745 votes. Goode is likely to ask for a recount, but the margin is actually large enough that it’s unlikely to matter.

One interesting thing about all this is that because the certification was so late, Perriello couldn’t take part in the office lottery for freshmen.

Not to worry though, he gets what’s left and that’s Virgil Goode’s office, which, because Goode was a 6 term incumbent, is a very nice office. Heh.

Finally, though not technically an election, but Biden aide Ted Kaufman has been selected to replace the him when he becomes Vice-President.

MN Election Update

There are indications that the Coleman Campaign is being aggressive with challenges, probably to attempt to ensure that they go into the canvassing board with a lead, because they do not like the trend.

In any case, the Colman campaign is now eschewing its earlier statements about not talking the canvassing board’s decision to court.

So Coleman is definitely nervous….I would note that the swings are much smaller than in Florida, indicating a better balloting process.

This is About Pork, Nothing Else

Well, it looks like the US Navy is looking at moving a carried from Hampton Roads, Virginia to Mayport, Florida, near Jacksonville, and the Virginia Congressional delegation is throwing a fit over this.

This is not surprising, the presence of that carrier pumps something like ½ a billion dollars into the local economy.

The Navy is arguing that, “The five East Coast carriers should be dispersed as a hedge against a natural disaster or attack that could shut or cripple the sprawling Norfolk base.”

So, in order to hedge against natural disaster, you want to move the ships into hurricane alley, otherwise known as Florida.

Of course the idea that foreign power will launch a sneak attack on the base is ludicrous.

SecNav John Lehman did this in the 1980s, on the argument that it would make more difficult for Soviet subs to shadow fleet movements, but it was a crap argument then.

Of course, these days the USSR is no more, and the Russians can’t deploy a significant portion of their fleet and the Chinese are a decade from a meaningful submarine fleet, so there is no risk of attack.

The reality was that Lehman wanted to do this because it created more constituencies for his vision of a 600 ship navy, because a large number of small bases gets you the support of many congresscritters, where as one large base just gets you 1 or 2 districts support.

With the Navy claiming that their ships and aircraft are wearing out and need to be replaced, they still want to drop a billion dollars on the move, not because of military need, but because of political need.

Senator Harkin To Introduce Bill to Force Derivatives Onto Regulated Exchanges

I think that it’s a good idea, because the markets need transparency:

Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Tom Harkin plans to introduce a bill Thursday that would force all over-the-counter derivatives, including credit-default swaps, onto regulated futures exchanges.

The problem for some folks, like hedge funds and former Lehman employees is that this will shut their business model down, because it is predicated on secrecy.

It’s not a problem for me, though. Just shut it down, and the stuff that continues, let a Commodity Futures Trading Commission with serious teeth aggressively enforce this.

Any business model that is predicated on information asymmetry and secrecy is dishonest at its foundations, and should be restricted.