Category: Defense Procurement

F136 Saga Continues

No Comments

Well, the Senate Appropriations Committee cut funding for the F136 alternate engine for the JSF, though the committee chair, Daniel Inouye (D-HI) has made it clear that he wants it back when the conference report comes out.

In any case, it’s clear that the White House’s opposition to continuing work on an alternate engine is soft, as the discussions between the Pentagon and GE/Rolls on a firm fixed price for the engine, are continuing, and GE is promising a, “formal unsolicited Fixed Price offer,” in the next week or so.

I’m not sure if the DoD is seriously looking at proposals, of if they are just trying to browbeat Pratt & Whitney though.

When Technology Works For You

No Comments

I give you the Spike missile, the version from the Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division (NAWCWD) at China Lake, not the rather more expensive ATGM produced by the Israeli company Rafael.

This Spike is a small (25″), light weight (2.5 kg) and very inexpensive (about 5000 lbs) that can be effective out to about 3200 m against relatively lightly armored targets. (The warhead weighs 1 pound)

It’s not fast, being decidedly subsonic, and it leaves launch tube at around 100 mpg, which means no backblast.

What makes this missile different is that it was designed using technology to meet a cost goal, so the seeker is, basically a camcorder bolted to the front of a rocket motor, and it can launch at low speed because it relies on COTS processor for flight controls, which do not require high initial speed.

It locks on the target image, and so is fire and forget, a capability that has been in the US arsenal since the 1970s with the Maverick missile.

Another advantage of this system is that it can easily be carried by a UAV when targeting things like insurgents, with a much lower cost, and a much higher number of rounds on existing UAVs that carry Hellfires, or it could be mounted on much smaller UAVs.

It just goes to show that technology can be used to create a reasonably effective weapon at a very reasonable price.

Some PDF with more details are here and here.

House of Saud Looking at Silent Eagle

No Comments

So, it looks like al Queida’s best friends are looking at buying an additional 72 F-15 Eagles, and the word is that they are very interested in the modified reduced signature (stealth is way to strong a word here) F-15 SE.

If they do, it will likely be instead of purchasing the F-35 Lightning II, and a quick perusal of the Wiki shows that nothing is moving there yet.

What the F-15 SE brings to the table for the Saudis is greater speed and payload at the expense of having a larger radar cross section.

Sanity Hits Missile Defense Plans

No Comments
Click Pictures for full size images
Tehran to DC


Masshad to Washington, DC


Masshad to San Francisco


Masshad to Rome


Masshad to Madrid


Masshad to Istambul


Masshad to Athens


Masshad to Chicago

Obama has canceled plans for missile defense installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. Basically, they determined that the threat is not there, and the Russians find it provocative, so they are dropping it.

The Russian response is positive, if somewhat muted, probably because they have been aware that the signals that Obama has sent on this issue for some time, and do now want to stir the pot.

Notably, they mention cost a number of times in their official statement.

I think that this is a combination of a number of things:

  • Recognition that there were no real benefits to the system beyond playing to the right wing in Eastern Europe, and to upset the Russians, because it was thought that a hostile Russia would play well for Republicans in domestic politics.
  • The fact that there are technologies that allow for non-permanent installations to serve the same purpose, most notably THAAD and a potentially larger derivative, and various flavor of interceptors based on the Navy Standard, which won’t have the effect of leaving Turkey, Italy and Spain, as shown in my analysis from earlier this year.

In the case of a diplomatic crisis, you can have a THAAD or a ground based Standard interceptor battery in place in less than 72 hours in northeast Europe, and have an Aegis destroyer off deployed near Cyprus, or possibly in the Black sea, in order to protect the southern tier of NATO in less time than that.

This is a remarkably sensible and sane decision, and it appears that SecDef Gates is fully behind this, so I expect Republicans to start screaming “Munich
if they haven’t already.

I think that we will see more support from the Russians on a number of issues as a result.

JSF Engine Update

No Comments

There is actually a fair amount going on here, with the F135 engine experiencing a test at supersonic conditions on the test stand. They discovered bits of engine, specifically fan tips on the integrally bladed first and second stage fans, flying out the nozzle at the back.

At this point, there is no evidence of foreign object damage, they have found no missing bolts or the like, but the cause is still unclear.

Along with this news, we have a report that defense acquisition chief Carter has ordered a high level investigation of the state of the F135 engine, particularly with regard to cost and schedule, as there are reports that it’s about 30% over budget.

It’s kind of ironic than that the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee eliminated funding for the alternate F136 engine a few days ago, though chairman Inouye strongly implied that it would find its way to funding in conference committee.

I think that the primary motivator for killing the F136 engine is because they want to save money now, even if it costs more later, but the cost and technical issues with the F135 would seem to make this less likely.

USAF Light Attack Program Proceeds

2 Comments
Boeing OV-10X Bronco

Hawker Beechcraft T-6

It looks like the USAF is getting serious about buying something to provide close air support in a counter-insurgency scenario, and we are now seeing the Boeing (originally North American Rockwell)It looks like the OV-10X Bronco and the Hawker Beechcraft (originally Pilatus PC-9) AT-6 Texan II being developed for these roles.

My own inclination would be to go with the Bronco. Twin engines, which can mitigate the effect of a lucky shot with an AK, along with a history of operating in austere conditions, works for me.

When a Hijacking Isn’t

No Comments

I’m reading conflicting stories about what happened to the Russian freighter that was captured by pirates, but there are also reports that the ship was carrying S-300 SAMs (Probably the NATO designation SA-12) to Iran, and that the capture of the ship by “pirates” was a ploy by Russia to avoid delivery of missiles that had already been sold by someone who should have sold them.

In any case, it is definitely weird.

FMTV Production Contract Award Protested

No Comments

Remember when I said that Oshkosh had won the FMTV military truck production competition, and so would be replacing BAE subsidiary Stewart and Stevenson?*

Well, BAE has filed a protest on the FMTV award, which means that there stop work order in effect.

Thankfully, production does not start for about year, so it should not have much of an effect, unless, of course, Oshkosh is using the time to redo the drawing package, which is likely.

*Full disclosure I worked at Stewart & Stevenson, Tactical Vehicle Systems, in Sealy, TX on the FMTV in 1992 and 1993.†
†Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

U.S. Navy: No Risk From Bad Welds – Defense News

No Comments

It appears that the construction defects in some of the Virginia class submarines may not be as worrying as previously thought:

Both Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding and General Dynamics Electric Boat have conducted exhaustive analysis and testing that demonstrates: the low probability of improper welds occurring aboard submarines; that improper welds are unlikely to fail during the ship’s operational life; and that should a weld fail it would leak but not break, thereby alerting the crew in time to address the issue before the weld degraded further.

That sounds reassuring.

Note that this is separate from the issues involving bolts for the weapons handling system.

Brazil Deal FX-2 Not Done

No Comments

It appears that the deal has not been sealed, much less finalized, and the Brazilian Defense Minister is saying that the Gripen and Super-Hornet. “could be still allowed to “redefine” their offers for the FX-2 contract.”

My guess is that deal was 98% done at the time of the initial announcement, and the Brazil is angling for more support, either technically or via purchase, for their C-390 transport.

Background here.

The Return of the Fixed-Price Development Contract

No Comments

Case in point, the next iteration of the Small Diameter Bomb, the SDB II, will be have a fixed price development contract.

This represents a welcome change in philosophy:

The theory is that technologies should be mature enough (technology readiness level 6, or tested in an operationally relevant environment, in Pentagon parlance) to enable accurate cost and schedule estimates by industry bidders competing for a development contract. This approach shifts more responsibility to contractors to keep their proposal promises. For the Pentagon, however, there is also risk. Requirements must be well-articulated and not altered in order to reap the benefits of a fixed-price contract. Once change orders are requested, leverage over contract price is lost.

I would actually go further, and make cost and schedule unalterable requirements statutorily, and prohibit, and possibly criminalize, any effort made by contractors and procurement personnel from changing this.

The article notes that this change is, “Raising questions among some industry executives about how much risk they will have to assume as they compete for Defense Dept. business,” but this is not surprising.

Defense contracting under Bush and His Evil Minions™ was an exercise in all reward, no risk, for defense contractors, which resulted in skyrocketing costs, horrendous schedule slips, and a dearth of solutions for the Marines and soldiers on the ground.

Brazil (Probably) Buys Rafale

No Comments

So, Dassault has finally gotten an export sale of its Rafale fighter, to Brazil. (Official announcement in Portuguese on a very poorly configured web server)

There were a number of things that helped with this:

  • The Rafale had already taken off and landed on Brazil’s aircraft carrier (see below).
  • The French agreed to purchase the Embraer KC-390 transport, which the US wouldn’t, and the Swedes couldn’t.
  • The France and Brazil are already collaborating on the Brazilian nuclear attack submarines, which, once again, which the US wouldn’t, and the Swedes couldn’t (or maybe they could, as the collaboration with the French is non-nuclear, and the Gotland class AIP boats would have a systems to a nuke boat).

This breaks the logjam for Rafale, but the customer, which has a significant aerospace industry with indigenous design capabilities and extensive existing ties, is fairly unique.

That being said, we also have this report (Google Translation from Portuguese) saying that the deal may not be completely nailed down yet.

H/t ELP Defens(c)e Blog for the tip/vid that the Rafale has already been launched from, and landed on the Foch, which was sold to the Brazilians and rechristened NAe São Paulo.

Well, This is Reassuring

No Comments

It appears that the Electric boat and Newport News Shipyards are having to do some rework after serious flaws were discovered in the manufacturing of the weapons handling systems for the Virginia Class Submarines under construction. (also here)

Northrop Grumman Corp. and General Dynamics Corp., the U.S. Navy’s two largest shipbuilders, are reviewing their work on Virginia-class nuclear submarines after defects were found on weapons-handling systems of four vessels.

The companies have discovered improperly drilled and machined bolt holes, bolts that had been wrongly machined and fasteners that weren’t installed correctly, Alan Baribeau, a Navy spokesman, said in an e-mail today. The companies will deliver their combined review to the service in two weeks, he said.

It appears the the defects have the possibility of making it impossible to load weapons, or weapons coming loose under shock.

The commissioning of the New Mexico, and the entry into service of the North Carolina, will both be delayed as a result.

Something is seriously Cheneyed up here. These are not the first of these boats out of either yard, and bugs like this should be worked out by now.

Russia Looks to Buy French Amphibious Assault Ship

No Comments

The Russians are looking at buying a Mistral Class amphibious assault ship.

It’s roughly equivalent to the Tarawa class of LHA, it’s a through-deck helicopter carrier with a well deck, and the possibility of carrying some STOVL aircraft, and can carry, and act as a command center for, amphibious assaults.

This is a capability that was never really the focus of the Russian navy, nor of the Soviet navy before it, which would explain why they want to purchase this capability from a 3rd country.

I’m not entirely sure why they feel that they need this capability though. The only 2 applications that I see are in multinational peace-keeping operations, and for invading Georgia, though issues with both the Turks and the Ukrainians would make the latter application difficult.

Oshkosh Wins FMTV Contract

No Comments

It beat out BAE subsidiary Stewart and Stevenson* to win the contract for the FMTV Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles, a bunch of cab-over 4×4 2½ ton and 6×6 5 ton transport vehicles.

I am surprised that they beat out Stewart and Stevenson.

This is not because of any great knowledge of capability in S&S, but because in the various attempts to compete this deal, competitors have always been leery making of a bid because of the low quality of the drawing package…..Talk about screwing up in reverse.

I guess that the DoD finally got around to insisting that a proper drawing package be produced, and once there was a drawing package that allowed other manufacturers to compete, it was inevitable that the award would go to a company with actual experience in making trucks.

The background of the original contract award is a bit “colorful,” BTW.

*Full disclosure I worked at Stewart & Stevenson, Tactical Vehicle Systems, in Sealy, TX on the FMTV in 1992 and 1993.†
†Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

On the F135/F136 Debate

No Comments

Well, we have Pratt & Whitney talking to the press about how very serious they are about containing costs, even though the latest estimate shows that its price will increase to $8.3M an engine, up from $6.7 million in the most recent DoD estimate. (H/T ELP Defens(c)e Blog)

People who cover defense for a living are noting that also there is no real indicator of a cost savings by killing the F-136, it just saves a few pennies now at the expense of a few dollars later.

In any case, the DoD is in full “cover your ass” mode with Secdef Gates telling Program Executive Officer, General David Heinz, to sit down and shut up, because he is being too forthcoming about potential benefits.

We also have dueling consultants on Aviation Week’s Ares weblog, with retired general Michael Hough (GE-Rolls Royce), dsaying that there was never a competition between the engines, and retired general Mike Loh (P&W) claiming that the bidders in the program competed the engines and selected the F136.

As it turns out, General Loh is lying. The bidders for the JSF, Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, and McDonnell-Douglas, never competed the engines, they simply selected an engine for the prototypes, and since the F119, the basis of the F135 engine was already in production, they deemed it more mature for the prototype effort. (see also
here)

It should be noted that the competition is already saving money for the government, as P&W is now offering a fixed price for the first 100 of their engines, in response to the GE-Rolls Royce fixed price offer.

BTW, as to the idea that P&W has their sh%$ together in regard to cost and performance? Maybe not, because the government is sending a team of fixers to evaluate the progam, a good indication of cost and schedule problems.

An-70 Moves Forward

No Comments

Click images for full size

It looks like the on-again off-again An-70 transport project is back on, with Russia and the Ukraine signing agreement to restore development to the aircraft. (see also here)

Given the problems with that Airbus A400m, being at least 2 years late, 12 tons (!) overweight, and short on promised range and cargo as a result of these problems, the AN-70 has an opening here.

They both fly at the same speed, but that Antonov flies a bit further with a 20 ton payload 6,600 km as versus 6390 km, has a bigger max payload, 47 metric tons as vs 38 metric tons, which would seem make it very competitive, though its contra-rotating props are doubtless louder, and hence more of an issue for people living near their bases in western nations.

Army Revives Guided 2.75-inch Rocket Procurement

No Comments

Well, it’s beginning to look the army is going to take another look at a guided 2.75-inch rocket after the congress took the money from their advanced precision kill weapon system program, and transferred it to the Marine Corps, who were apparently much further along on the task of integrating guided rockets into combat units that the Army.

The original concept was to have a guided weapon to hang from the OH-58 and similar helicopters, but given the hot and (very!) high operating conditions in Afghanistan, and the nature of the targets, a Hellfire is overkill for a truck or an ox cart.

As the picture shows, you can carry 7 rockets (right of picture store) for each Hellfire:

A market survey released on 28 August by the army’s joint attack munition systems office says that high-altitude conditions require the army to trade the number of “stowed kills” on board an aircraft in favour of adding extra fuel.

“This undesirable trade is believed to be unnecessary given recent developments by industry on lightweight precision munitions,” it adds. “Industry efforts have resulted in a number of semi-active laser (SAL) munitions that may have the potential to satisfy army aviation’s need for a lightweight, precision munition.”

Market survey? I know what they mean, but the juxtaposition of the phrase “Market Survey,” and US Army is a bit odd.

Background here.

Russia May Terminate Bulava SLBM

No Comments

After numerous test failures of the new solid-fuel Bulava submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) intended for the new Borei-class submarines, there are reports that it could be replaced by the liquid fueled Sineva missile, which is currently deployed on older submarines.

My guess is that it would take less time and effort to make the Bulava work than it would to replace it, since it is derived from a land-based system which already works, and the rework of the Borei’s to do this would be involved, but I am speaking from a position of profound ignorance here.