Lockheed and the C-5M, up 108% from last year.
We gotta frog march some of these execs out of their offices in hand cuffs.
Category: Defense Procurement
Something Else Over Budget on the JSF
The engine, or more specifically, the Pratt & Whitney F-135, to the tune of at least $850 million.
I’m not sure if this is an excuse to kill the alternate GE/RR F-136, or to keep funding it to keep them honest.
Seriously, the Indian Defense Establishment is the Most Fracked Up Military-Industrial Complex on the Face of the Earth
I just saw this press release from the Indian government about the Nag anti-tank missile.
It’s supposedly a “third generation anti-tank missile”, and it’s supposed to undergo final trials in the next week or so, but the missile has been 22 years in development.
22 years? For an anti-tank missile?
That is completely whack, and once again the initials DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization), a government agency and defense contractor, which figures prominently in this absurdity.
Perhaps, shuttering the organization, bulldozing the buildings, burning the rubble, encapsulating the ashes in concrete, and starting afresh in establishing an indigenous defense establishment would help, because, based on the performance that I’ve seen, this is the most screwed up defense procurement establishment in the world.
EADS Looks for U.S. A400M Partner in Push for Pentagon Sales
The weak dollar, which has increasingly made US labor attractive to the Europeans may be a contributing factor, but the EADS’ discussions with Northrop-Grumman and Lockheed-Martin for final assembly (Paid Subscription Required) are really all about getting access to the US military market.
The Problem With Pakistan
Is that the entire country resembles the German Imperial Navy circa 1913. The Kaiser’s naval officers would end each meal with the toast, “Der tag,” meaning “The Day,” referring to the day that a final epic confrontation with the British Grand Fleet.
Well, if we look at the problems with Pakistan, whether it’s misappropriation of funds intended for anti-terror operations, or the support given by the Pakistani security service, the ISI, which continues to support the Taliban in order to ensure that the influence of India in Afghanistan is minimized.
It’s why Pakistan is fundamentally unreliable as an ally in the war on terror. The Pakistani military, and to a lesser extant Pakistani civilian leadership is fixated on the prospect of war with India, even though, as both are nuclear powers, anything beyond fierce border clashes is unlikely.
Well, it looks like Bush and His Evil Minions™ have decided to double down with the “War with India” dead enders who have been supporting the Taliban and preventing meaningful action against al Queida. They are proposing that $230 million in anti-terror aid, roughly 2/3 of all anti-terrorism funds, be transferred to upgrades of the Pakistani F-16 fleet.
These F-16s have no role in operations against the Taliban or against al Queida. They are purposed almost exclusively for use against India.
By releasing this money for upgrades, we are reinforcing bad behavior, and encouraging the Pakistani military to provide a safe haven to al Queida and for elements of the Pakistani security apparatus to act as the primary sponsor for the Taliban.
Raptor Ducking this Year’s Red Flag
Considering the fact that it has been at previous Red Flags, and it has zero role in the so called “War on Terror”, and they could shake one loose for the Farnborough airshow but this year, when the Indian AF will be sending Su-30MKIs to the exercise, David Axe reports that they are too busy to participate.
They are doing their hair, or some such.
I’m certain that they guys who actually fly the F-22 want to see how their likely adversary, advanced derivatives of the Su-27 will perform against them, what sort of tactics would be used, and similar issues, but the guys who fly desks, and are still interested in additional purchases of the white elephant, so they don’t want any losses in exercises, to get in the way of that.
Boeing Pisses Off F-35 Program Executive Officer
As if USAF Genearals weren’t already Pissy enough, it appears that General Charles Davis is upset about Boeing’s sales pitch for the F-18 E/F.
He’s upset because Boeing is, “predicting further cost overruns and delays for the F-35 program,” and using it as a selling point for the Super Bug.
Seeing as how the JSF has already had a, “50% cost increase and an at least 18-month delay during the first seven years of development,” perhaps the good general should look inward, rather than outward.
Thanks for the Plane….When do We Get the Boat?
MiG is saying that it will be MiG-29K carrier variant to the Indian Navy shortly.
Unfortunately, the ship that they are to serve on, the Admiral Gorshkov, is still in refit in Russia, and it will be at least two years late.
Of interest is that the MiG-29K’s avionics will operate on a MIL STD 1553B bus, a western standard.
Good Assessment of Sales Pitch for Saab Gripen E/F
Basically, it comes down to the alternatives being too damn expensive or too politically restricted, and the additional payload/range/performance of the upgraded Gripen making it quite competitive, particularly with the option of an AESA radar.
This quote is intertesting to me:
[Robert] Kemp [senior vice president for international sales & marketing at Gripen International] says many potential F-35 customers were uncomfortable with the “You’re either with us or against us” approach to fighter sales. He claimed that growing dissatisfaction with technology transfer, workshare and offsets, coupled with F-35 cost escalation and slipping timescales have led “more and more JSF customers coming to talk to us about a replacement for JSF”.
It’s one of the concerns I have about the F-35 is that it appears to have a closed nature, and if a competitor to Lockheed-Martin’s weapons systems wants to get certified, I think that there are doubts about how cooperative LM will be.
I would also direct you toward Bill Sweetman’s snippets of an interview with Mr. Kemp:
“Schedule. So many governments have been grossly embarrassed by programs that run years late.” (Consider the Australian Seasprites and Canada’s CH-148 Cyclone.) Kemp points out that the last major Gripen program, the C/D update, came in on time and cost.
“Price.” Kemp continues. “If it works and you can deliver it, the price – including operational cost – is extremely important.” International politics are less important than they used to be, Kemp says, but domestic issues are more so. (It was the activism of coalition partners that forced the Netherlands government to re-evaluate its choice of the JSF.)
Close air support (CAS) missions are becoming more crucial as time goes on, particularly in countries which have supported operations in the Middle East. “The guys commanding those operational units were the ones who got promoted, and their influence and experience will be more important.”
I still think that the sales folks at SAAB are delusional about having a shot at winning in the Netherlands, because the Cloggies have spent too much money on the JSF already, but the basic sales strategy of, “On time and on budget,” seems to me very sound.
Epic Fail: India Finally Ends Arjun Tank Program
More specifically, they will be terminating production after their already-committed total of 124, and upgrading the remainder of their tank corps with some 1,657 1,657 T-90S Bhishma tanks of Russian origin.
Note that the design and development of this tank began in 1974, so after 34 years of development, it finally appears dead.
Not even US defense procurement programs are this screwed up.
JSF May Present Weapons Integration Issues
Aviation Week discusses possible issues involved in integrating new weapons into the JSF (Paid Subscription Required).
Because of the limited space in the weapons bays, and the highly integrated nature of the fire control systems, it’s beginning to look like integrating home grown weapons into the airframe will be an expensive and difficult proposition.
The article specifically mentions the UK concerns regarding integrating their Meteor air to air missile.
767 for Tanker Rebid
It’s not surprising that Boeing will stick with the 767 for the rebid of the tanker program. They have only a few months to respond, and going with, for example, a shortened 777 would be a very difficult thing.
The problem is that the A330 is a better plain, and the A330 MRTT, which is the airframe that Airbus is using, is flying now, even while Boeing is struggling to deliver its 767 tanker to Italy, which is not the same airframe as is proposed for the US tanker.
Airbus is clearly the better choice, even the GAO review said that while faulting the selection process, but politics being what it is, I would give Airbus a no better than 50/50 chance of winning this if it ends up a soul source bid.
Navy Wants to Pull Plug on Zumwalt Class
Well, it looks like the Navy is coming to its senses, and that it will be trying to terminate its DDG-1000 Zumwalt class destroyer at just two ships.
I think that this is a good thing. They are too damn expensive to build many, and whatever capabilities you add, you lose too much coverage. A large ship (14,500 tons) simply can not be in two places at once, while two (or three) smaller Burke class destroyers can.
It’s the sensible decision, but I agree with Galrahn that there is a risk that Congress may overrule the Navy, because there are prominent people who want the defense pork, which would be a damn shame.
Sweden AF Will Commit to Gripen NG Buy if Norway Buys
It’s not an ironclad commitment to purchasing the aircraft, but I think that some sort or series production is almost a certainty for the upgraded Gripen, which is now being referred to as the E/F models.
F136 engine completes STOVL testing
This GE-Rolls Royce competitor to the Pratt & Whitney F135 in the JSF has completed a round of tests in STOVL mode, which is generally considered the most demanding part of the engine envelope.
My guess would be the GE/RR want to get as far as possible as quickly as possible, because the Pentagon has repeatedly tried to kill the program, and it’s been Congress keeping it alive.
I have mixed emotions on the F-136. It’s clear that the F-100/F110 competition was a success in the F-15 and F-16, lowering cost and getting increased performance, but the F-110 was a derivative of the F-101 developed for the B-1 bomber, and as such the start up costs were much smaller.
JSF Pricing
And you thought that hedge funds and derivatives were complex.
So Lockheed-Martin is trying to set realistic prices for the F-35 (paid subscription required), so that it can finalize deals, particularly with countries on board the program who have not yet made official decisions to purchase the fighter.
The most recent estimates are the CTOL at $49.5 million, STVOL at $69.3 million, and the carrier variant at $64.5 million, and I don’t believe any of that. I would be surprised if the CTOL variant is less than €50m and the STOVL and CV versions were under €65 million, and I expect the dollar to fall against the Euro a lot over the next 5-8 years.
In any case, L-M is looking for a “consortium buy”, where the partners in the program lock in the price by paying for jets in 2011 that are delivered after 2014, think of it as a stealthy Brooklyn bridge purchase.
Of course LM officials maintain that their cost models are “more reliable” than of past fighter programs…which honestly is not saying all that much.
The idea is to lock the partners into multiyear procurement when the US Congress won’t allow the US military to do so until the aircraft is certified for full rate production.
Only that certification comes in 2014 at the earliest, so they want to have multi year pre-paid contracts to buy in 2011, for delivery in 2014, even though that is the earliest date one can expect to have the aircraft certified for full rate production.
When you add to this the fact that the system will be highly integrated, and customers will find it very difficult to install their own upgrades (the Israelis are already in talks on this), I think that this will be much more expensive than they are claiming here.
I could be wrong, but it’s tough to be wrong when you expect cost overruns and schedule slips in a major defense contract.
JSF: It’s All About the Benjamins
It’s the Dutch, so it would actually be Guilder, or Euro, Meijer, or Snip, or Geeltje, but in any case, the the kickback scheme that has the Netherlands as a JSF customer is now up for negotiation.
Basically, Dutch industry got a lot of offsets as a part of the F-35 deal, and the Dutch government is supposed to get a percentage of that revenue back from the defense contractors.
The problem is that the deal is not fully fleshed out, and the government is now asking for 10.3% of all revenue JSF related orders through 2053 as opposed to their original figure of 3.5%, because the falling US dollar will reduce public revenues in this scheme.
This may explain why the government is going through the charade of reexamining the procurement decision on the JSF, asking to look at the Eurofighter Typhoon (refused to respond with proposal), Dassault Rafale (Refused to respond with proposal), and SAAB Gripen.
They are using it as a lever to get more money out of their private defense contractors.
Finally Found a DoD Project That’s On Budget and On Schedule
It’s the AH-64 Apache Block III Upgrade.
This is actually a non trivial upgrade:
The Block 3 improvements are pretty fundamental, requiring a new airframe, more than 1 million lines of code, a new transmission system, longer range and automatic recognition radar, UAV connectivity, the ability to communicate with a much wider range of platforms (but not stealthy aircraft), software that will help the air crew make rapid decisions and a host maintenance management systems that are expected to reduce the average flight hours lost to fixing and maintaining things by 30 percent.
And it appears that it’s working because of the basics, keeping up good lines of communications and avoiding requirement creep.
That last one seems to be the biggie in defense procurement fiascoes, which is why the entire spiral development model is problematic.
Russian AF to Order New Build Su-35’s
The Russian air force would like purchase 2-4 dozen of the new Su-35 fighters as a stop gap until the PAK-FA enters service.
This is notable because these would be new build airframes, thesw would be the first new build multi-role fighters since the Soviet days (paid subscription required) for the Russian AF.
Tanker Saga Update
Northrop Grumman is now saying that it will complete all 4 system design and development (SDD) tanker airframes by the end of 2009, even with the hold for the rebid.
This is in stark contrast to Boeing, where they are so far behind schedule for their 767 tanker for the Italian Air Force, that hief of the defense staff, Gen. Vincenzo Camporin, will refuse to meet with Boeing executives at the Farnborough air show.
The tankers are already over 3 years late.
More evidence as to why EADS should be the winner on this.