Category: Elections

Another Shoe Drops on Blumenthal

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The Stamford Advocate quotes him as saying, “I wore the uniform in Vietnam,” which sounds particularly damning, though there is not video or audio tape at this time.

Seriously, the primary is in a few weeks, Connecticut Dems, time to switch horses.

It’s more than just a misstatement or two, because saying things like this:

“I wore the uniform in Vietnam and many came back to all kinds of disrespect. Whatever we think of war, we owe the men and women of the armed forces our unconditional support.”

Appears to be at the core of his public personae. It’s his version of, “A noun, a verb, and 911.” Every 3rd word out of his mouth is something like this, or like the largely apocryphal spitting stories, and as such this makes him seriously damaged goods.

If he does not lose the primary, he just got the state party endorsement, he will very likely lose the general.

H/t The Plum Line.

Lame, Even By Republican Standards

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Will Bunch notices that Pennsylvania State Attorney General, and Republican nominee for governor, Tom Corbett, has issued subpoenas to determine who is making nasty tweets and blog posts about him:

Corbett’s actions here look like one of the most stunning abuses of power I’ve seen in a while — not just in Pennsylvania but anywhere.

A blog focused on exposing the alleged “hypocrisy” of Attorney General Tom Corbett and the Twitter account associated with that blog could soon be enjoying a bounce in reader interest, thanks to a subpoena ordered by Corbett’s office earlier this month.

Corbett, who won a primary against Rep. Sam Rohrer Tuesday and will be the Republican nominee for governor in November, subpoenaed Twitter representatives to appear as grand jury witnesses to “testify and give evidence regarding alleged violations of the laws of Pennsylvania.”

The case could gain viral attention, since the subpoena calls into question the right to free speech, specifically from anonymous posters on the World Wide Web.

Maybe I’m missing some nuance here but at first blush it looks like the anonymous owners of these two Twitter accounts and blogs are doing nothing more than exercising their 1st Amendment rights of free speech to criticize Corbett’s public actions. If Corbett believes that he has been libelled by any of the blog or Twitter posts, he is within his rights to personally sue them (a difficult case for him to win, as a public figure). But that is a far different thing from using the power of the state and the grand jury.

Bunch further updates with a Pittsburgh Post-Gazette story, where a they imply that the blogger/bloggers are a defendant in a case, but in a quick reading of the blog, there is no mention of the case, just a litany of accounts of unethical behavior by Mr. Corbett.

This is clearly an attempt at retaliation against critics.

First, You Say Something Stupid, Then You Lie About It, but It’s On Video

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There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission.*

No, not Blumenthal, he fessed up in the back-handed way that pols do.

I mean Sue Lowden, who is a Republican running for US Senate against Harry Reid in Nevada.

First, she suggests that people should barter chickens for medical care, and does not have the good sense to say she meant, “Bargain,” and now she is denying that she ever said this.

The problem is that she has been caught on video repeatedly making just such a statement, so let’s roll tape, specifically the inestimable Rachel Maddow.

The first rule is that when you are in a hole, stop digging.

The former anchor woman turned politico brings to mind the immortal Don Henley lyric, “We got the bubble-headed-bleach-blond who Comes on at five, She can tell you ’bout the plane crash with a gleam In her eye.”

In any case, she may be Harry Reid’s electoral salvation.

*Virtual Kewpie doll for whoever picks the reference for the caption.

Looks Like the New York Times Did Not Do Their Homework

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Click for full size

The McMahon Campaign’s Statement, since scrubbed, that they were the source of the story

And neither did I when I commented the Times story on Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal’s statement that he had served in Vietnam, when he actually went through multiple deferments and a stint in the reserves to stay out of the war.

It appears that the paper, and me indirectly, swallowed a piece of opposition research from a political opponent without further checking the story.

Well, the New York Times posted a short clip of his speech where he clearly said that he served in Vietnam.

What they didn’t post was the whole speech, where he leads off with a statement that makes it clear that he is claiming that he simply served during that era, not making a claim of serving in the ‘Nam.

Hell, even Fox News’ Neil Cavuto says that the New York Times did a hack job:

Blumenthal didn’t. As far as I can tell, he quite often made a point of saying he didn’t do the heavy lifting in service, just that he appreciated his Marine Reserves service and really appreciated those who did far more in service. He almost always explained the difference, and almost always cited his gratitude.

What’s more, see the pic, with Republican Senate Linda McMahon’s campaign claiming that the Times swallowed their research lock, stock, and barrel, which falls under the, “What the f%$# were they thinking when they admitted that?” category.

Also, people are not talking with the Connecticut press, and it appears that Blumenthal was generally (an important modifier) clear about his status.

I still think that Blumenthal is dead meat because of this, and that the Dems should nominate someone else (who?) on primary day, though, hopefully, so is Linda McMahon, because they fingered themselves over this, and this is an opening for her Republican primary opponent, Rob Simmons, particularly since there are also credible allegations that she warned a drug (steroid) dealing doctor about a federal investigation.

This will be a crazy race.

Dodd Drops Plan to Kill Lincoln Swaps Restriction

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If Blanche Lincoln had won the primary outright last night, then her proposal to require that banks separate themselves from their swap desks would be dead, and the bullet would have been Chris Dodd’s proposal, which was to defer implementation for a year for a ‘study’, and then let Timothy “Eddie Haskell as Wall Street’s Bitch” Giethner decide whether it was necessary.

We all know what Geithner would do.

But Lincoln is going to a runoff, and her opponent, Bill Halter, is already saying that this is exactly what she planned, that she would make the proposal, but would let it die once it was politically convenient.

So, Chris Dodd has decided not to introduce the “kill the regulation” amendment.

My guess is that he got a frantic call from Lincoln this morning, begging him to wait until after the June 8 runoff, and so the dynamics of the Congressional incumbency protection racket dictates that he pull the amendment off the table ……… At least until June 9.

Dem Primary Results in Pennsylvania and Kentucky, Returns in Arkansas

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It’s official, Joe Sestak has defeated Arlen Specter for the Democratic nomination for Senate in Pennsylvania.

Rather refreshingly, Specter is staying relatively classy:

Specter also said he called Sestak to congratulate him and tell him he thinks it’s vital to keep the seat in the Democratic Party.

I don’t expect him to aggressively stump for Sestak, first, he’s an 80 year-old cancer survivor, and second, he lost in large part because of his unpopularity, but I expect a joint press conference in the next few days.

And in the Democratic primary for Senate in Kentucky, Conway beats Mongiardo in a close one, so the good Dem beats the faux (anti-abortion, etc.) Dem.

In the special election in PA-12 to replace Murtha, Mark Critz defeated Tim Burns, which means that the Dems hold on to the seat, but Critz is the a seriously right wing Dem, rather far to the right of Murtha, who he worked for as a staffer.

On the other hand, both Congressional campaign committees dumped a lot of money on this, so it’s a good sign that Critz won, and that it was not particularly close.

It’s still to soon for Arkansas, but right now, it looks like it will be headed to a runoff, because neither Blanche Lincoln nor Bill Halter will get 50% of the vote.

As it stands right now it’s Bill Halter with 42.65%, Blanche Lincoln 43.26%, and DC Morrison with 14.09%, with 53% reporting, which means that Halter or Lincoln would need to get somewhere around 58% of the remaining votes to avoid a runoff, which is not going to happen.

The only question now is who will finish in 1st place.

(on edit)

There will therefore be a runoff on June 8.

Primary News: Kentucky

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They are calling the Republican Senate primary for Rand Paul, the son of tea-party godfather Ron Paul:

Political novice Rand Paul rode support from tea party activists to victory in Kentucky’s Republican Senate primary Tuesday night, delivering a jolt to the GOP establishment and providing fresh evidence of widespread voter discontent in a turbulent midterm election season.

Paul had 59 percent of the vote — with returns counted from 29 percent of the precincts — to 37 percent for Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who had been recruited to run by the state’s dominant Republican, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Make no mistake about it: This is a major loss for McConnell and the Republican machine in Kentucky.

This may make the seat more winnable for the Dems, though it is still a long shot, because the Republican establishment, led by McConnell, is not going to pull the lever for Paul, and might even pull the lever for a Dem.

And, at least in the preliminary numbers, it looks like the Dem won’t be a blue dog type, as, at the time that I am typing this, “Attorney General Jack Conway led Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, 49 percent to 39 percent.”

Conway is pro choice, pro-union, etc.

I think that this improves the Dems’ chances here, because people will vote for a real Democrat, Conway, ahead of a fake blue dog, Mongiardo.

Again, this may be a reaction to the party machine, which backed Mongiardo.

OK, This is Really Stupid

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Blanche Lincoln went to vote today, but she was turned away because she had already requested an absentee ballot:

Sen. Blanche Lincoln suffered what might be one of the all-time greatest campaign staff fails this morning. According to her campaign staff, Lincoln was initially turned away when she tried to vote at her home her polling place this morning after elections officials discovered she had already requested an absentee ballot be sent to her Virginia home. Poll workers told Lincoln their records showed she had already voted.

So, her photo-op turned into a clusterf%$#.

Sounds typical for Ms. Lincoln.

Oh My God………

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OK, I was a bit of a fan of Dodd, so I was upset, Geithner and Obama hung him out to dry over his doing their bidding on AIG bonuses.

At least the person selected by the powers that be to replace him, Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, had a lock on the seat in the general, because the Nutmeg State is very blue.

Well, not any more. It appears that the Blumenthal, who has repeatedly used his service in Vietnam to justify his support for military tribunals and a continued military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, has been lying about serving in Vietnam:

At a ceremony honoring veterans and senior citizens who sent presents to soldiers overseas, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut rose and spoke of an earlier time in his life.

“We have learned something important since the days that I served in Vietnam,” Mr. Blumenthal said to the group gathered in Norwalk in March 2008. “And you exemplify it. Whatever we think about the war, whatever we call it — Afghanistan or Iraq — we owe our military men and women unconditional support.”

There was one problem: Mr. Blumenthal, a Democrat now running for the United States Senate, never served in Vietnam. He obtained at least five military deferments from 1965 to 1970 and took repeated steps that enabled him to avoid going to war, according to records.

……

In 1970, with his last deferment in jeopardy, he landed a coveted spot in the Marine Reserve, which virtually guaranteed that he would not be sent to Vietnam. He joined a unit in Washington that conducted drills and other exercises and focused on local projects, like fixing a campground and organizing a Toys for Tots drive.

……

But what is striking about Mr. Blumenthal’s record is the contrast between the many steps he took that allowed him to avoid Vietnam, and the misleading way he often speaks about that period of his life now, especially when he is speaking at veterans’ ceremonies or other patriotic events.

I’m with the Swing State Project’s take on this, “The Dem statewide convention is this weekend. Conceivably delegates could nominate someone other than Blumenthal. If someone else wants to get on the primary ballot via petition, they need to file 7,500 signatures by June 8th (PDF).”

I think that it is probably too late to get the convention to nominate someone else, but there are 3 weeks to get the signatures, though I would make sure to get at least 12,000 because the PTB who selected Blumenthal in the first place will challenge them.

What I do know is that there are hundreds of hours of Blumenthal lying on video and audio tape, and whoever runs against him will play it over, and over, and over again.

He is dead meat.

I’m beginning to think that serving as attorney general or DA should be taken as a strike against those serving higher office.

The Lines Cross, and the White House Backs Away From Specter

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Absolutely brutal, and completely true.


And the lines cross

I understand why the White House supported Arlen Specter in the Democratic primaries, it was a reward for his switching parties, and provided an inducement to other potential Republicans who might consider switching, like uh……… uh……… uh………

OK, there is not another potential switcher, but it all seemed so wonderfully hopey–changey post partisan.

Well, largely on the basis of the fact that Arlen Specter is really all about Arlen Specter, and the fact that Joe Sestak is pointing it out to people (see vid), Arlen Specter is now lagging in the polls, and as the incumbent with good name recognition.

The rule of thumb that the undecideds nearly always break for the challenger by something like 2:1, so I reiterate my statement that Arlen Specter is toast.

So, the White House loses one here, and they are doing something really stupid, which is to walk back their support of Specter now that it is likely that he is going to lose the election:

If this is true, it’s significant: CBS chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer is now saying that he has it on good authority that the White House is privately bracing for Arlen Specter to lose tomorrow.

………

I’ve also learned that Veep Joe Biden will not be doing any campaign events for Specter in the final stretch, though it’s not immediately clear how significant this is. Last week, Biden said he’d be doing events for Specter “as needed.”

But a Biden aide confirms for me that no campaign events are scheduled, even though Biden will be in Pennsylvania tonight speaking at his daughter’s graduation. Biden has done radio interviews on Specter’s behalf.

This recognizes a problem with the Obama administration, and for the Clinton and Carter administrations before them: An unwillingness to continue fighting when victory seems unlikely.

I can understand some talking points flowing out about, “an anti-incumbency mood,” and suchlike, but the idea that when faced with less than a 50:50 change of success, the choice is to fold like overcooked Brussels sprouts has negative consequences.

It convinces allies that you don’t have their back, and it convinces opponents that they can take a temporary advantage, and use it to kill a proposal early in the process.

I never thought that they should support Specter, or for that matter Lincoln, but sawing off the branch won’t endear other Democrats with the concept of going out on a limb for Obama.

Building an Infrastructure for Tyranny in the UK

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One of the peculiarities of Great Britain is that they have no constitution, so they can change what should be inalienable rights with a law.

A few years back, for example, they removed the right to remain silent in a criminal investigation, and so juries can now explicitly use non-testimony against the defendant.

Well, as part of the coalition deal the Tories and the Lib-Dems, they intend to
set a fixed 5 year term for the parliament.

The current state of parliamentary terms is a maximum of 5 years, but new elections can be called before then, and have to be called before then if there is a failure of a confidence vote.

Well, Conservative David Cameron, Liberal-Democrat Nick Clegg have decided to go with a fixed term of 5 years, requiring at least a 55% vote of Parliament to dissolve the institution.

It appears that this was done because Clegg is concerned about getting cut loose as soon as it is convenient for Cameron.

While this is understandable it is a major change in the way British governance works.

In the US, with the exception of the (thankfully rare) impeachment, terms are fixed, and state actors are controlled by checks and balances from competing branches of government.

This is not the case in a parliamentary system. The Prime minister has much greater powers, particularly in the UK, where there is no formal constitution.

What prevents excesses in government by the ruling party is the threat of government turnover at any time: the no-confidence vote can put the shoe on the other foot in very short order.

If you remove that, you remove many of the constraints on the behavior of the executive.

Clegg is being penny wise, and pound foolish.

Great Googly Moogly

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The latest poll has Sestak beating Arlen Specter by 9 points, 49%-40%.

the MOE is 4.9% with a 95% confidence.

Barring a herculean turnout from the minority community, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter as well as other African American pols are working hard for him, he is toast.

Idiocracy Was a Documentary

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Idiocracy writ small

Yes, this an actual campaign ad in which a candidate is lambasted for believing in the independently observed fact that is evolution.

It’s actually a little more complex, because it’s an ad for a Republican primary, and intelligence and fact count for very little in that world.

Additionally, it may be the Alabama Education Association, the state branch of the NEA union, that is running the ad.

The AEA has had a number of long running battles with the candidate, Bradley Byrne, most prominently over his attempts to ban community college employees from holding public office.

Whether or not it’s the AEA funding this, the point is that they (probably correctly) see a person who understands the scientific method and proof as being vulnerable if this is exposed to the Republican party base.

It’s probably true, and it’s very sad.

Gordo Out

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Gordon Brown has announced that he is stepping down as head of the Labour Party, which should improve Labour’s chances of forming a coalition with the Lib-Dems and the small fry parties:

Gordon Brown has announced he will step down as Labour leader by September – as his party opens formal talks with the Lib Dems about forming a government.

The PM’s continued presence in Downing Street was seen as harming Labour’s chances of reaching a deal.

Labour and the Tories are both trying to woo the Lib Dems with promises on electoral reform as the battle to run the country reaches its critical phase.

Still, we are in for a time of minority government, with either Labour or the Tories in the lead, and no small amount of instability.

Specter is Toast

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So says the latest tracking poll, which has Joe Sestak leading Arlen Specter by 46% to 42%. (PDF)

If you assume that the numbers go the wrong way for Sestak on the margin of error (±5%), and figure in the 2:1 undecideds going for the challenger, then Specter wins a 51%-49% victory, but this is really grim for Specter, and the numbers also now appear to imply that Sestak is stronger in the general election against Neanderthal Pat Toomey.*

Basically, Sestak has started hitting Specter as being a political opportunist, and it works because it’s true.

Here’s hoping that Blanche Lincoln suffers the same fate.

*My apologies to Neanderthals for the comparison.

Teabaggers Win One

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Bob Bennett, one of the most conservative members of the Senate, has lost the party caucus in Utah, which means that he will not be in the primary ballot.

He could mount a write-in campaign, but this is highly unlikely.

Seeing as how Utah is not only thoroughly Republican, but foaming at the mouth red-conservative, it’s unlikely that this would give us a Democratic Senator, as happened in that New York Congressional race.

Democratic Senate Primary Poll Update

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These are obviously daily tracking polls, and only reflect last night’s sentiment, so they are just snap shot.

Arlen Specter is tied with Joe Sestak at 43%, which cannot be good for Specter.

Lincoln seems to be in better shape. She is leading Bill Halter by 44% to 32%, which, if you use the rule of thumb that undecideds go 2:1 to the challenger, has her winning by 52%-48%, though it is still close.

Both primaries are on May 18, so I expect these numbers to move over the next 11 days.

I’m rooting against both incumbents.

Jon Stewart Makes a Very Good Point

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See profiling comment at 4:20

As always.

Actually, he makes a number of them, with the big one being, “What are we going to do in this country when we get attacked by someone who’s not one of the Home Alone burgers?”

But there is the little point that he makes that I find far more trenchant.

He runs an ad put out by a Teabagger candidate running against Alan Grayson, Dan Fanelli, talking about profiling terrorists, and brings out two men, one swarthy and bearded, and one white and old, which asks “Where’s Waldo” which one is the terrorist?

This leads the doyenne of late night news to ask the question himself, “Which one? Doctor Kevorkian on the left, or the cast member from The Jersey Shore on the right?”

Stewart’s answer is that the terrorist who flew his plane into the IRS building in Texas looked an awful lot like Congressman wannabe Fanelli.