The short version is that everything is screwed up and the deal is collapsing.

There is, however some good news, which is that after Mbeki’s latest visit, the SADC has defacto taken him out of the process, because both sides have asked the SADC to intervene directly, as opposed to through Mbeki, in what Tsvangerai calls “Tsvangirai slams Mugabe’s dialogue of the deaf.”

This really should help things move along, because Mugabe no longer has a biased ally at the negotiating table, though actually holding the meeting may be problematic, because Tsvangerai cannot travel to the meeting until he is
given a passport by the government.

As a result of all this, we have warnings of new sanctions from the US and EU.

Both the MDC and Botswana have made calls for a new election, though one wonders how much of that is gamesmanship at the negotiating table.

Of course, nothing involve Zimbabwe would be complete without some truly bizarre machinations, in this case the accusation by the MDC that the deal that was formally signed was changed from what was negotiated, specifically:

• an increase to the number of non-constituent senators issued to the Mutambara faction;
• changes to a clause stating that a replacement for vice prime minister cannot be a non-constituent MP;
• changes to the agreement that parties would jointly consult each other on the appointment of ambassadors and other key government officials.

Basically, because Thabo Mbeki wanted a deal to secure his legacy, he forced the MDC to sign a deal that wasn’t fleshed out, so now Mugabe has unilaterally appointed his minions to head the military, police, and state media ministries.

This means that the ZANU-PF would retain control of the country, and their thuggish “war veterans” would continue to operate with impugnity.

Representatives of the MDC have stated the obvious, that they should have waited until the details on power sharing were hammered out. Of particular interest is the quotes that point the finger for this failure squarely at Mbeki:

Various media reports quote informed sources as saying: “Tsvangirai made it clear that he did not trust Mugabe and insisted that the key issue of the allocation of ministries should be put into black and white first and vowed he would not sign the deal if this condition was not met,” said a source who negotiated for Tsvangirai’s party. “Mugabe had promised that all the parties would have a key ministry and even suggested that he would retain Defence and Agriculture, while Tsvangirai would be allocated Home Affairs and Information. Mutambara was supposed to get Justice and Youth.”

But the sources said Mbeki lambasted Tsvangirai, after Mugabe had declared his commitment to making the deal a success. “Mbeki told him, ‘Heads of states are already here for the signing of this deal and you say you cannot sign’ – and Tsvangirai had no option,” said the source. Mbeki had held private talks with Tsvangirai the previous Tuesday as the power-sharing deal remained deadlocked.

It is now blindingly clear that Mbeki is, as I have repeatedly said, is the problem, not the solution.

Not surprisingly, Tsvangirai has threatened to withdraw from the power sharing deal as a result.

In an attempt to put out this fire by adding gasoline, Mbeki is headed back for more negotiations.

The right move would be to replace Mbeki with someone who isn’t in Mugabe’s pocket.

As a result we are seeing another refugee flood into South Africa, and threats of of new sanctions against Zimbabwe.

Mugabe’s thugs are returning to form, with riot police beating protesters.

It appears that the main driver of this is the fears of Mugabe’s generals that they would be subject to criminal prosecution if the opposition takes any control of the state security apparatus.