Category: Elections

Caucus Delegates ARE Different

Much has been made about Hillary Clinton’s comment as to the differences between primary and caucus delegates. Josh Marshall has an analysis that shows this is not a meaningless distinction.

Specifically, caucus goers do not select delegates. They select representatives who go to the next level, either county or state wide, and at the end of this process, a delegate is selected.

So, if Obama representatives do not show up at these meetings, it is possible, and completely within the rules, for Clinton representatives to pick up some delegates this way.

Of course, we have Obama supporters whining that it’s not fair, but given that he raised $55 million dollars in February, investing a million or so in making sure that their representatives actually show up to the higher level caucuses would be a good idea.

Democrats Looking at Mail in Primaries in FL and MI

I’ve always been a fan of mail in voting, so I like the idea.

My guess will be that it will be the Obama campaign that expresses problems, because people have already voted, and in the event of a revote like this, they stand to lose, a lot.

Additionally, as shown by the results in Alabama on Super Tuesday, where a large win resulted in a nearly break even number in delegates for him, the revotes in MI and FL would be stacked against him delegate-wise.

Let me note that this is not evil. This is politics, and Obama is likely to favor something like a caucus instead, because it benefits his campaign.

That’s how political campaigns are supposed to work, to structure the process toward their candidate’s advantage, and absent stuff like Republican style vote suppression, it is neither good nor evil, it simply is, as Mount Everest is, and Alma Cogan isn’t.

Anti-Musharraf Government Formed in Pakistan

The PPP and PML-N have formed a coalition government, and they have almost 2/3 of the seats in Parliament.

In order to change the constitution, they would need a 2/3 majority, with impeachment requiring the same numbers, but their current majority appears to be enough to reinstate judges.

I don’t think that Musharraf is long to his post as president, and in fact, if the judges are reinstated, they may rule his last election to that post to be illegal.

Florida and Michigan Update

I think that it is clear is something will be done to reselect delegates.

The options are a primary and a caucus, and neither the states or the DNC are willing to front for a primary, which would cost about $25 million, $10m for Michigan and $15m for Florida.

My guess is that its probably going to be a caucus, but you could fund the primaries with soft money, so theoretically 1 person could cut two checks to make it happen.

Governors Granholm (D-MI) and Crist (R-MI) Fall for The Full State Delegate Slate to Be Seated at Both Conventions

The have released a joint statement on this, and it seems to be backtracking on the part of Crist, who originally made noises about reholding the primary.

I’m not clear on the politics involved, I assume that Granholm is a Clinton supporter, and Crist, being a Republican, may just want to piss in the proverbial punchbowl, since the delegates mean nothing at the Republican convention as McCain has already clinched.

Then again, this may just be pandering to the local electorate.

Wanker of the Day: John Aravosis of Americablog

John, for those of you who don’t know, is the proprietor of Americablog, and he has a post on the election titled What will the Republicans throw at Hillary Clinton in the fall?

Generally, I highly recommend his blog, just not this post:

…. But I’m not going to detail those things today because I’m, surprisingly, still pulling punches with regards to what I write about Hillary. I don’t want to damage Hillary should she become our nominee, as increasingly unlikely as that appears. I don’t want to write about very real scandals in Hillary’s past, scandals that we will be forced to revisit for the next 8 months, and 8 years. I don’t want to write about the rumors about Bill that no one has written about to date, even though the rumors include lots of details which are at least just as true as Obama being a Muslim. While Hillary’s campaign is pushing known lies about Obama, such as the “Muslim” connection, most of the stories about Hillary are anything but lies. They’re real stories that she will have to discuss publicly, again and again and again, to her and our party’s detriment.

But I’m not going to be discussing the details of those stories today because I don’t want to make our candidate damaged goods in the fall. You will notice that neither Obama’s campaign nor Obama’s official, or unofficial, surrogates are talking about the Clintons’ past or present scandals, the Clintons’ negatives, what a Clinton run for the presidency will to Democratic congressional races and governor races across the country. The Clintons are counting on the fact that none of us will write about their negatives, because we’re too nice. So they can get as dirty as they want, with impunity.

He then goes on to say that he will unload if Clinton does not get 65%.

This is bull%$#@. I disagree on any number of levels:

  • The empirical evidence, specifically the long primaries in 1976 and 1992 when the Democrats won the elections, indicates that prematurely wrapping up the nomination process does not create wins.
    • Just look at 2004. John Kerry was consistently ahead of GW Bush until he had locked up the nomination.
    • For that matter, look at 2008, where the only way that John McCain gets any coverage, now that he’s pretty much nailed down the nomination, is when a right wing bigot endorses him.
  • Clinton’s and Obama’s attacks on each other are really pretty tame, that “3am phone” ad is rather mild.
  • I’d like to see the Pennsylvania primary used to build the party there, and that will happen only if the primary means something.
  • At this point, we are talking about a 5-6% difference in delegate count.

I don’t want a brokered convention, but the fat lady has not sung, though it does appear that she has started warming up.

I certainly have my disappointments about the nomination process, John Edwards pulled out before I could vote for him, but the fact that that the Democratic candidates and the Democratic agenda is getting additional coverage because the process is ongoing is a good thing.

Dem Wins State Senate Special Election in New York

Darrel Aubertine beat Will Barclay, taking the state senate to 32 Republicans and 31 Democrats in a special election.

FWIW, the last time that a Dem won this district was in the 1800s, so this does not bode well for the Republicans.

If one Republican switches sides, control of the state senate changes hands.

After that, the first order of business should be redistricting, at least on the state level.

In a state where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by something like 4:1, it’s clear that some serious gerrymandering is going on and needs to be fixed.