Another really good week, with initial jobless claims falling 5,000 to 359,000, (well sort of, last week’s numbers were revised up from 348K to 364 K, so apples to apples is a little bump up), with the 4 week moving average fell 3,500 to 365K, with continuing claims falling by 41K to 3.34 million, and extended claims fell 79K to 3.24 million.

Of course, there is a proverbial turd in the punch bowl in all of this, which is that all of these figures are seasonably adjusted, and we’ve had the mildest winter in the United States pretty much ever so we might be seeing a lot or economic activity that would normally be in April or May.

I guess we’ll find out then.

The best numbers in 4 years, initial claims fell 5K to 348K, the 4 week moving average fell to 355K, and both continuing and extended claims fell.

Unambiguously good news.

And we have some pretty good news, 351,000 initial claims, with the less volatile 4-week moving average unchanged, but continuing and extended claims rose a bit.

It matches a 4 week low.

And it was not particularly good news.

Initial claims rose by by 8,000 to 362,000, 10,000 more than forecast, with the less volatile 4-week moving average rising by 250, continuing claims rising by 10K to 3.42 million, and extended claims rose 26.8K to 3.4 million.

Not great news, but still better than it was 6 months ago.

We should be getting the official NFP numbers tomorrow, but the ADP numbers were pretty good.

Of course, “pretty good” still means that we are looking at a decade before we return to trend.

351,000 initial claims this week, with the 4-week moving average falling to 354K, as did continuing claims, though emergency claims rose slightly.

Generally decent news, but if it stays at this level, we are looking at more than a decade below trend.

We had some more good news on the unemployment front. Initial claims were down by another 10K, and continuing claims.

There is still a part of me that does not believe the good news though.

Defying forecasts, initial claims fell last week, with the 4-week moving average falling to an almost 3 year low, though continuing claims rose.

Good news, I just hope that this isn’t just a temporary blip.

The January jobs report is out, and there were 243000 net jobs created, and the unemployment rate fell from 8.5% to 8.3%.

This is good news. If we have about 6 years of this, and we’ll have recovered.

Initial claims fell to 367000, with the 4-week moving average, and continuing claims falling as as well, though emergency/extended claims rose.

Good news, and we’ll get the non-farm payroll numbers tomorrow.

The GDP numbers came out, and the word is “meh”, with the economy growing at a 2.8% annual rate in the 4^th quarter,  under performing the forecast of 3%, and giving a 1.7% increase for the year.

We need to top 3% for a while to really improve our situation.

Yesterday,initial unemployment claims rose, to 377,000, as did continuing claims, though the 4-week moving average, and extended claims fell.

That being said, Consumer sentiment rose in January, which is good news.

Not good news.

Initial claims just rose to 399,000, up 24K from last weeks “already revised upward” number, basically the dividing line (rule of thumb 400K) between getting worse, and not getting worse, with the less volatile 4-week moving average rising by 7,750 to 381,750, with continuing claims rising as well, though emergency claims fell.

One step forward, one step back.

And the numbers are good in an anemic sort of way, with unemployment (U-3) falling from 8.7% to 8.3%, and non-farm payrolls rising by 200K.

So how good is this?

Not very good, according to the Shrill One:

First, note that there are still about 6 million fewer jobs than there were at the end of 2007 — and that we would normally have expected to have added around 5 million jobs over a four-year period. So we’re 11 million jobs down — and we need at least 100,000 jobs a month just to keep up with working-age population growth. Do the math, and you’ll see that it would take 9 or 10 years of growth at this rate to restore full employment.

Alternatively, note that during the Clinton years — all 8 of them — the economy added around 230,000 jobs a month. As it did that, the unemployment rate fell about 3 1/2 percentage points — which is about what we’d need from here to get back to something that felt like full employment. Again, this suggests that we’re looking at something like a decade-long haul to have full recovery.

Not good enough.

Pretty good news today, with initial unemployment claims falling to 372K, a drop of 15,000, from last weeks (adjusted upward) claims, with the 4-week moving average falling to the lowest number since July 2008 (!), 373,250, with continuing claims falling, though emergency claims rose slightly.

Additionally, the ADP survey, (same link) indicates a 325,000 increase in private sector jobs, though I’ll wait for tomorrow’s NFP numbers for the official word.

We also saw the ISM’s manufacturing index grew strongly and the non-manufacturing index rose modestly.

All in all, it’s pretty good news, I’m just wondering how much government jobs have hemorrhaged over the past month.

Still, initial unemployment claims rising by 15K to 383,000 is still not good news.

The 4-week moving average fell, but continuing claims rose, though emergency claims fell.

I’ll wait until we are out of the holiday season before drawing any conclusions.