Category: Europe

The Black Sea Follies

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Not surprisingly, we have Cheney visiting the region before slinking off to an undisclosed location, and he is very clear on the fact that he wants a new cold war for political advantage, NATO membership for Georgia and the Ukraine, and pretty much anyone else, if only because it pisses off the Russians. (see here, here, and here)

Of course, the Ukraine’s coalition government appears to be on the verge of collapse, and while Ukrainian President Yushchenko is still going for NATO membership, while PM Yulia Tymoshenko* is more cautious, and less viscerally anti-Russian (and anti-ethnic Russians in the Ukraine) than the president.

It also appears that while the Ukranians are interested in EU membership, support NATO membership is somewhat more tepid.

Even with that, there is no unanimity within the EU over Ukraine’s membership.

I’m not sure if this is because of concerns with Russia, because the Ukraine is really not ready in terms of things like transparency, or because the EU is already suffering from massive growing pains and transfer payments from it’s breakneck expansion of the past few years.

Meanwhile, NATO appears to be taking a leading role in the rebuilding of the Georgian military, with NATO networking with NATO radars and their early warning system.

Meanwhile, we have a pretty good rundown of Georgian misstatements and flat out lies about the war, and that Georgia had been planning its invasion of South Ossetia for many months, as evidenced by this story from April regarding the radars being moved into the conflict areas.

What is clear is that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was hoping to draw NATO into his war, which is a pretty good reason not to even begin considering EU or NATO membership for Georgia until it is clear that the firebrand politician has left the stage; he was engaging in nuclear chicken by proxy.

In any case it appears that the Russians are deescalating, with a promise to withdraw all troops from Georgia proper.

*Why, oh why can’t news happen in places where the names are easy to spell?

As the Caucuses Turns

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Unsurprisingly, we have reports that Cheney to made promises to support Georgia while there.

Once again, Mr. Deferment is letting his mouth cut checks that someone else’s kids will have to cash.

No doubt he promised more welfare for American defense contractors to help rebuild their military, which the Georgians are reportedly very eager to do.

Additionally, it appears that once again, Cheney is determined to make another problem worse, as he is lobbying for the US terminating the civil nuclear cooperation pact with Russia, which is likely to mean more ill-secured nuclear material in that nation.

This isn’t to say that Russian diplomatic efforts are going well. They just got the kiss of death diplomatically, when Hugo Chavez of Venezuela backed the Russian recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Also, in the, “I thought that this has already happened,” category, we have Georgia severing diplomatic ties with Russia.

I think that the final word on this conflict comes from William Pfaff:

Ukraine and the Baltic states have been given the lesson that great powers do not go to war against other heavily armed great powers just to settle ancient sectarian quarrels or linguistic rivalries in client countries, even if those are prospective NATO members.

Meanwhile, Saakashvili is beginning to see domestic push-back from his failed adventure, with the opposition now saying that some of the blame lays in the, “US educated Georgian leader,” for the spanking received from the Russians.

Meanwhile, the EU has been unable to come to a consensus on any diplomatic actions to take, which is an indication that the EU does need a change in governance structure, just not the one that they are trying to ram down the throat of the Irish.

Russia remains completely unapologetic about the whole affair, which is not surprising, as over the top as some of the statements made by Moscow on the conflict are, it’s clear that this is a real statement of how Russia feels about both Georgia and NATO expansion.

While I am not as big a fan of delving into the minutiae of military conflicts analysis as, for example, the War Nerd, Aviation Week does have an interesting report on Russian self-analysis on what happened in Georgia. (paid subscription required)

Not surprisingly, the RuAF comes in for most of the criticism. There was apparently little preparation on their point, and no attempts to use long range PGWs to take out Georgian air defense systems.

Georgia, Russia, and the End of US Hegemony, and Updates

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First, Seumas Milne has a very good article noting that the US is no longer the “hyperpower” it was in the mid 1990s, and Russia just showed it in its recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The US military is too overstretched to do anything meaningful there, even if Russia did not have somewhere around 2000 nuclear warheads, and on the diplomacy side, countries now require an indication that it serves their national interests when they are asked to follow the US on a military adventure.

The US is still the only remaining world power, but Russia is one of a dozen or so regional powers who are now able to challenge the us in their regions.

In a very real way, it is the end of empire.

Russia has rebuilt its military into a credible fighting force over the past decade. 10 Years ago, the Georgian military would have still lost by dint of numbers, but they would have held out for weeks, and not collapsed in a day.

I will also note that I think that Putin believes it when he says that United States encouraged Georgia to attack South Ossetia. I believe it too, and I imagine that in a decade or so, we will have historians confirming the fact.

For what it’s worth, we now have evidence that diplomats don’t have to be Bush political appointees to be complete idiots, case in point, Daniel Fried, who is claiming that Russian military actions are a sign of weakness, “But being angry and seeking revanchist victory is not the sign of a strong nation. It is the sign of a weak one.”

So, that would make invading Iraq….What?

Meanwhile, the US military is looking at ways to rebuild the Georgian military, which strikes me as imprudent, at best.

It was the military aid which convinced the Georgians that they could start this military adventure in the first place.

The EU is warning Moscow to stay out of the Ukraine, but I really don’t think that Russia is looking at rolling up the Ukraine.

I could see that situation developing if a Ukrainian nationalist comes to power and starts trying to ethnically cleanse the region, but I don’t see anyone being stupid enough to do this…..At least no one on the scene right now is stupid enough.

That being said, the reaction of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) regarding the recognition of those provinces, where Russia is a member, was decidedly tepid, and the Asian former Soviet Republics who are its members (with China) are among those most likely to be supportive.

And in the comedy as foreign policy department, Georgia is calling for the UN Security Council to take action against Russia…..Ummmm….What part of “veto” don’t you understand?

For what it’s worth, we now have a report, albeit a self serving one from South Ossetia’s prosecutor general on the numbers of casualties from the initial Georgian assault, 1,692 killed.

I would take that with a serious grain of salt. It probably is more than the 130 stated by other sources though.

Georgia: Can We Just Say that Russia Won, and Be Done with It?

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We have NATO demanding that Russia rescind its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia without explaining why Kosovo is legal, and Abkhazia and South Ossetia are not.

Because I said so is not a good argument in foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Medvedev is talking to the China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan about their recognizing the break away provinces.

I think that China will wait, but that one or two of the FSU central Asian naations will go along.

Kosovo is refusing to back sovereignty, which is not surprising.

In terms of the purely legal aspects of the situation, they are very similarly, but the Kosovars were targeted with an organized campaign of Genocide, while the Georgians went with a brutal program of imperialism, and there is a difference morally.

In any case, the independence of Kosovo, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia are really more about the “great game” between the US and Nato and Russia than they are about concern for the people in those regions….on both sides.

Meanwhile, Serbia said, I told you so,” which is not unexpected.

As if Things Didn’t Already Suck for Georgia

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Dick Cheney will be visiting Tbilisi next week, which should be unpleasant for everyone involved.

Cindy McCain is going there too, doubtless to provide tips on make-up, face lifts, and shoe purchases, in addition to her obvious expertise in drug abuse.

Unsurprisingly, the Russian Duma voted to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent, but there has not yet been a definitive statement by Medvedev, as the formal recognition of a state is the president’s and not the Duma’s prerogative, though I expect one shortly, because of the Kosovo precedent.

The US is warning that this is “unacceptable”, and I expect that the Russians will consider this with just as much seriousness as the US considered similar Russian warnings on Kosovo.

I supported, and continue to support, the independence of Kosovo, but one of the negative consequences was that it provided a precedent of secession of regions in Europe, and it’s entirely possible that we may see a similar movement in the Crimea in the next few years as a result.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and France are saying that Russia remaining in the so-called buffer zones is a violation of the cease fire, and Russia is maintaining that these are called for under agreements negotiated in the 1990s, and are thus covered by the cease fire.

My prediction: I expect formal recognition of the two breakaway regions as sovereign nations by Russia in the near future, and significant distancing from Georgia, or at least from Saakashvili by the West. It’s already happening in “Old Europe”, and I would expect it to occur in the US in January.

Georgia Again

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Obviously, what makes the news in the US is that the USS McFaul delivered aid to Georgia, but in the grand scheme of things, that means very little.

I think of more import is that fact that Saakashvili is a nut-job relegated to chewing his own tie…Really…see the vid at end.

First, he is promissing to rebuild his army and retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia. That’s clearly not going to happen. Both areas will be declaring independence, and will be recognized by Russia, in the next 18 months, and probably before January 21.

We also have him flat out lying about the original Georgian offensive into South Ossetia, claiming that the Russians had already moved tanks in, and I honestly think that he believes that.

Certainly there are issues of provocations on both sides, but the idea that somehow Georgia was forced to invade South Ossetia and launch an artillery barrage on its capital has no relationship to reality.

Of course, it doesn’t help that the Georgian parliament has extended martial law, which I think at this point will be used against political opponents, and not either the Russian military or Ossetian or Abkhazian militias.

Interestingly enough this article in Newsweek provides some insight into the dynamics between Georgia and the West:

It would have been hard not to be charmed by Mikheil Saakashvili. Young, dynamic, Western-educated and -oriented, he was among the most intriguing characters to move onto the global stage after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

….

….Soon after, I met the president again at his newly built residence in Tbilisi. He had dark rings around his eyes and he alternated between enormous, if not misplaced confidence that his Western allies would help him, and rather childish despair about Russia’s view of him personally. He said he had heard that Russian officials play billiards with the word MISHA written on the black ball, and asked the reporters assembled at his home, “What is going on in Russia? Am I hated there?” That evening he seemed traumatized by this. With his head in his hands, and pear juice and brandy running down his chin, he pleaded: “Does anybody know what Russia is up to?”

This is Western Tribalism at it’s finest: He spoke good English. He went to an elite technical school, Columbia University, so despite the fact that he unleashed riot police on protesters, and seized opposition media outlets, he has to be a good guy.

We see the same thing in Iraq: The representatives of ISCI, a proxy for Iran, speak fluent English, and affect American manners, so they must be the representatives of western style democracy.

The West in general, and America in particular, must get over this little bit of chauvanism.

Perhaps the most extreme example of just how far this short-sightedness takes us is this piece of doggerel from Richard Holbrooke, who claims that somehow the Russians have lost because Saakashvili is still nominally in power, when it is clear that he is a dead man walking.

He is an indicator of just how morally and intellectually bankrupt the foreign policy establishment is in Washington, DC.

Rule Number 1 of US Defense Procurement

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Is that if it’s a joint program with the Europeans, then the Department of Defense will screw around with it, and try to kill it. (paid subscription required)

Case in point is MEADS, which packages an improved Patriot PAC-3 missile with extensive European involvement, and now the Pentagon wants to reorganize the program. (paid subscription required)

I kind of knew the program was doomed when I worked a (very little) bit on in in 1998. Jointness is the kiss of death for the Pentagon.

Georgia Update

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It appears that the Russian pullout is in fact happening, though they are taking up stations in their buffer zones, and they blew up military installations on the way out.

The UN Security council is currently deadlocked, with the Russians demanding that force to reunify the provinces be specifically forbidden, and the US demanding that it not be, and that “Georgian territorial integrity” be specifically affirmed in the document.

I also heard (no link, radio report) rumors that both South Ossetia and Abkhazia will be declaring independence at some point in the near future.

Georgia News

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It appears that by late last yearIsrael scaled back arms sales to Georgia last year, because they saw a war between Georgia and Russia brewing.

Based on what I’ve read at this point, it appears that, with the South Ossetians, there was no one within 1500 km who did not know that the Georgians were preparing for an invasion of the breakaway province.

Meanwhile, Georgia is suffering economically, both as a result of transportation disruptions and a flight of foreign capital.

Meanwhile, in response to NATO’s downgrade of relations, the Russians have frozen cooperation with NATO, which includes things like anti-drug operations and supply routes to Afghanistan.

On the military side, while the Russian counter-offensive was clearly successful, there are accusations that the Russian Air Force was unprepared, with little or no effort made in the initial stages of the war to take out surface to air missile and radar sites.

Mikhail Gorbachev has written a blistering editorial excoriating the west and the western media, that he feels was in the pocket of Georgia.

It looks like the promised Russian pullout is procedeeding, albeit slowly, though Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili is claiming that the pullout is widening the occupation of Georgia.

I think that it’s clear at this point, despite Saakashvili’s fluent English and his Columbia University degree, which counts for way more than it should in US diplomacy, he’s just a bit…..well….nuts.

The Georgia Pullout

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I stand by my earlier assessment, that the Russians are pulling out, but doing so with all deliberate slowness.

In any case, it does appear that the Russians are determined to humiliate the Georgians, and their state security apparatus, as much as possible on the way out.

They still seem to be messing around in the main Georgian port of Poti, and they are maintaining that, “A 1999 document written up by the Joint Control Commission, an international body that monitored tensions in South Ossetia, gives peacekeepers access to a long piece of land that extends about nine miles into Georgian territory.”

This is about showing who is boss, which is immature, but at least no shots are being fired right now.

That being said, the Russians are suffering some diplomatic blow-back, with Ukraine offering NATO access to a former Soviet missile early warning station, and Poland signing a deal on installing the US ABM system.

Certainly these will be more noticed by the Russians than what will be a temporary downgrade of NATO-Russian relations, which is not going to last long, if just because cooperation with them on Iran is essential.

We have an interesting quote in this article about the US capitulating on NATO membership for Georgia:

“Russia has successfully burned Georgia’s NATO card,” said Sarah E. Mendelson, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Whatever the outcome, Russia has all but obliterated Georgia’s possibility of joining NATO, as it cannot belong to this alliance if it has unresolved border disputes.”

Let’s be clear. The Russians won.

Georgia Update

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Russia says that it is pulling troops out of Georgia, though Pentagon sources are disputing this.

My guess is that there is a withdrawal going on, the Russians don’t want to deal with an insurgency, but that it is proceeding with all deliberate slowness.

Aviation Week has analysis of the relative success of Georgian air defense systems (Paid Subscription Required), specifically of the SU Tu-22M3, and suggest that it was shot down because of Israeli aid in upgrading the Soviet era air defense systems.

Additionally, they note that the Georgian air defense system was less sophisticated, less networked, and less automated than the Syrian one, and as such, it may have been less vulnerable to the cyber attacks that were allegedly used by the Israelis when they struck the Syrian reactor complex.

Shades of Battlestar Galactica, the new one, not the old one.

As to the Su-25 losses, they suggest that these were shoulder launched SAMs, and I agree, as the Su-25 is really a close air support aircraft, which puts them in the sweet spot of such weapons.

South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Kosovo

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First, it appears that there is evidence of looting and burning by South Ossetian militias. It’s unclear how much of this is ethnic violence, and how much is simple opportunism.

The Russians are not doing a whole bunch about this right now, they are busy destroying the Georgian security infrastructure under their control, but it does appear that they have arrested some militia men.

This does parallel what happened in Kosovo following the expulsion of the Serbian army, though with the Russians in control, it’s likely to get worse than it was in Kosovo with NATO troops who were somewhat less tolerant of the activities of the KLA post liberation.

Meanwhile, Serbia is lobbying the UN to refer the matter of Serbian independence to the International Court of Justice, which is awkward for the US, who has to argue that Kosovo can and should be independent, but that South Ossetia and Abkhazia should not be.

What is Going on in Georgia

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I knew that Russia decimated the Georgian army, but I had no clue as to how totally completely they owned them:

It soon became clear that the six-point deal not only failed to slow the Russian advance, but it also allowed Russia to claim that it could push deeper into Georgia as part of so-called additional security measures it was granted in the agreement. Mr. Sarkozy, according to a senior Georgian official who witnessed the negotiations, also failed to persuade the Russians to agree to any time limit on their military action.

So the Georgians have forsworn the use of force to get back the provinces, Russia has the right, for an indeterminate amount of time, to stay in Georgian territory, and take “additional security measures.”

Meanwhile, the Russians are telling George W. Bush and the Georgians to pound sand on the autonomous regions:

Medvedev said he would support the independence aspirations of South Ossetians and Abkhazians in accordance with the United Nations Charter, international conventions of 1966 and the Helsinki Act on Security and Cooperation in European.

“You have been defending your land, and the right is on your side,” Medvedev said at a meeting with leaders of the two breakaway regions.

“Russia’s position is unchanged: we will support any decisions taken by the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in accordance with the UN Charter,” he said, adding that “not only do we support but we will guarantee them.”

Georgia is going to be smaller in a few years.

Economics Update

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Weekly initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, at 450K as opposed 432K, and the 4 week moving average is 440.5K, the highest number since 2002.

At the same time, the CPI numbers are grim, with prices up 0.8% in July, and 5.6% year over year.

The Europeans are not doing much better, with GDP declining 0.2% in the 2nd quarter.

The European weakness, meant a Euro weakness, with the dollar gaining against the Euro.

These indications of a global slowdown have pushed oil prices lower, and Gasoline is down too.

Don’t expect a real estate recovery to save the economy though, foreclosures are up 8% for the month, and 55% year over year, and home prices have fallen 7.6% year over year.

More Confusion, and Stupidity On Georgia

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First, I think that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili realizes that he’s lost, and that his support is now crumbling. At least that’s my explanation for his increasingly erratic rhetoric, where he went on CNN, and talking about fighting to the “last drop of blood”.

He gambled, and he lost, and at best all he can hope for is that he manages to hold out until the next elections.

This is also explains why he claims that the US will take control of Georgian ports, a claim what was promptly refuted by the Pentagon, “We are not looking to, nor do we need to, take control of any air or sea ports to conduct this mission,” said Geoff Morrell, Pentagon spokesman. (emphasis mine)

It’s also why he said that the humanitarian aid was a part of a greater military involvement:

But while Mr. Bush said the United States “stands with the democratically elected government of Georgia and insists that its sovereignty and territorial integrity be respected,” his remarks contained no hint of an American military role in Georgia, other than providing humanitarian assistance.

However, minutes after Mr. Bush’s comments, President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia characterized the import of the American aid as “definitely an American military presence” and called it a “turning point.”

Needless to say, Bush’s statements that he wanted to convey, “unwavering support for Georgia’s democratic government,” are not helping the situation.

Putin is the last person on earth that I would want to bluff if he knew it was a bluff, and he knows that Bush’s bravado is just a bluff.

Needless to say, the only person desperate enough, or stupid enough to believe this is Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

There is a Cease Fire in Georgia, Sort of

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It looks like there has been a cease fire accord signed between the Russians and the Georgians.

As to the net result of the accord, the Washington Post, being the paper that Bushies leak to when they want credibility (Moonie Times does not cut it), strongly suggests that Moscow capitulated to Western demands, because they were concerned about their role in international bodies.

I think that the reporting of the Los Angeles Times and the The Guardian, which see this as a Georgian capitulation.

The Georgian army has largely disintegrated, and the conditions of the terms are highly favorable to Moscow:

The key demands are that the Georgian leader pledges, in an agreement that is signed and legally binding, to abjure all use of force to resolve Georgia’s territorial disputes with the two breakaway pro-Russian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; and that Georgian forces withdraw entirely from South Ossetia and are no longer part of the joint “peacekeeping” contingent there with Russian and local Ossetian forces.

(emphasis mine)

The Russians are also maintaining their right to “additional security measures” until foreign monitors were in place.

This would support the reports that the Russians are still advancing (see also here, here, here, and here), and that the Russians had destroyed Georgian naval vessels.

Some of the reports had a convoy heading from Gori to Tbilisi, but this was denied by the Russian military, who said that they were, “Demilitarizing the area near the South Ossetia border so that Georgia could not launch new attacks.”

I don’t see the Russians entering Tbilisi, though I could see them setting up artillery in range of the city as a means of intimidation.

We are also getting reports of burining and looting in areas under Russian control.

It appears that the Russians are not doing this, but that Ossetian militias are, and the Russians are taking no action, to stop them.

Bad Idea, Barack

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Woah, this is a full metal pander:

Obama appeared to agree, saying, ‘I have consistently called for deepening relations between Georgia and trans-Atlantic institutions, including a Membership Action Plan for NATO, and we must continue to press for that deeper relationship.’

It was this sort of statement that encouraged Georgia to get its war on and level a city full of women and children.

Additionally, it makes him look weak, because it makes him look like he is triangulating and that McCain is taking the lead on foreign policy.