Category: Finance

So Long and Thanks for All the Fish

Andrew Lahde managed a hedge fund that returned 866% by shorting the subprime collapse.

Well, he just quit and shut down his fund, and his letter of resignation is a doozy:

Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.

I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don’t worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer’s company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life — where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management — with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.

On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government. Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man’s interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft’s near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.

Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won’t see it included in BP’s, “Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions,” television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM’s similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country? Ah, the female. The evil female plant — marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let’s stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient.

With that I say good-bye and good luck.

All the best,

Andrew Lahde

Someone needs to give this guy Hank Paulson’s job.

I approve of the bit about hemp too.

Turn on, tune in, drop out.

Eated*

High Desert Federal Credit Union, taken over yesterday.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

High Desert Federal Credit Union Placed Into Conservatorship
High Desert Federal Credit Union is Open and Operating, Member Accounts are Safe and Federally Insured

October 16, 2008, Alexandria, Va. — The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) has assumed control of the operations of High Desert Federal Credit Union headquartered in Apple Valley, California. The Federal Credit Union Act authorizes the NCUA Board to appoint itself conservator when necessary to conserve the assets of a federally insured credit union, protect members’ interests or protect the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund.

Service continues uninterrupted at High Desert Federal Credit Union and members are free to make deposits, access funds, make loan payments and use share drafts. While the credit union was placed into conservatorship because of a declining financial condition, the decision to conserve a credit union enables the institution to continue normal operations with expert management in place.

Member accounts are insured to at least $250,000 while IRA and KEOGH retirement accounts are separately insured up to $250,000 under coverage provided by the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund, a federal fund backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government. Members with questions about their insurance coverage can contact NCUA’s Consumer Assistance Center at 800-755-1030 Monday through Friday between 8:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. (EDT).

High Desert Federal Credit Union was originally chartered in 1951 and today serves those who live, work, or worship in San Bernardino County, California. The credit union has $149 million in assets and serves over 13,000 members.

The National Credit Union Administration is the independent federal agency that charters and supervises federal credit unions. NCUA, with the backing of the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, operates the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund, insuring the deposits of 89 million account holders in all federal credit unions and the vast majority of state-chartered credit unions. NCUA is funded by credit unions, not tax dollars.

The following links to a document for members being posted on the High Desert Federal Credit Union website concerning the conservatorship, http://www.hdfcu.org.

-NCUA-

*I ripped off this term from Atrios.

Signs of the Apocalypse: ECB Drops Inflation as Priority

We now have a report that the European Central Bank, the entity that serves in the role held by the Federal Reserve in the Euro Zone, has decided to set aside all inflation concerns for the moment:

The European Central Bank’s main task is to keep inflation down. But over the past month, it has thrown caution to the wind in trying to prevent financial system and integrated economy of Europe from falling apart.

When you consider the fact that the charter of the ECB was only to deal with inflation, because of German experiences with hyperinflation in the 1920s (wheelbarrows of cash for a loaf of bread).

Unlike the Fed, the ECB has no mandate to maintain stable employment….It’s only role is to keep inflation low, and they are freaking out.

Economics Update

Not a great day.

Consumer confidence had the largest plunge ever, from 70.3 to 57.5, and home construction fell to a 17½ year low.

There are some indications that the credit freeze is relaxing, at least temporarily, the short term spread between LIBOR and Treasuries has dropped a bit.

I’m not sure that there is a real thaw, as evidenced by the fact that hedge funds are hemorrhaging money and investors.

The dollar, meanwhile was largely static today.

In energy, oil is back above $70/bbl, but that is likely the result of OPEC holding an emergency meeting to cut production.

Can Central Banks MAnage Asset Bubbles

Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan said that it was impossible, so all that could be done was to clean up afterwards, though it’s clear that Ben Bernanke is s looking at ways for the Federal Reserve to intervene before bubbles get too frothy.

He’s also looking at how excessive consolidation in banks made the current troubles worse.

This is a clear repudiation of Greenspan’s policies and philosophies.

Kevin Drum nails the problem clearly, at least with respect to housing, when he asks when do asset bubbles become inflationary.

While it is hard to claim that the Dot Com boom was inflationary, it’s clear that the housing bubble was. These were not abstract financial assets, they were essentials of life that people pay for, but the Fed, and the BLS, specifically gamed the inflation data so as not to have to count double digit increases in the cost of shelter as inflation.

Of course Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan, who hates wages, but loves unearned income, would never subscribe to the idea that this was inflationary, but he’s a complete wanker.

Economics Update

We are all, as Bender is wont to say, “totally boned”, and you need to look no further than the fact that :NASCAR is experiencing cash flow problems because financially strapped sponsors are bailing.

About the only good news is that collapsing demand appears to be keeping inflation in check.

BTW, the crisis just hit Phil Gramm’s bosses, as the Swiss government was just forced to bail out UBS.

Don’t expect a turn around in the real estate martket, because mortgage rates just posted their largest increase since 1987.

This might explain why the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index has fallen to an all time low, 14, where a neutral reading is 50.

In the real world of manufacturing, industrial production and the Fed Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index both plummeted to levels not seen in over a decade.

With a very strong indicatrions of a recession, commodities, in particular oil ($69/84/bbl!!!) and gasoline, continued their falls.

What takes this from an economic down turn to an apocalypse are signs of the apocalypse, and one of the is when Americans consumers save, rather than spend their money.

If you want another sign of the apocalypse, how about banks cutting back on issuing credit cards, because they need to hold additional reserves against defaults.

When banks cut back on what is probably their most profitable business, you know something is up.

Jobless claims for the week aredown, but week to numbers are noisy, and the it’s an artifact of the fact that we’ve had a hurricane free few days.

The dollar strengthened a little. I think that there are two competing pulls here: the concern that the US is no longer the financial colossus striding the world, and the habit of going into the dollar when times are uncertain.

It’s a Small World, But I am Not Painting it

Martin Eisenstadt discovered some interesting facts about “Joe the Plumber”. aka Joe Wurzelbacher.

It turns out that he’s related to Robert Wurzelbacher….

…wait for it….

Who was a senior vice president of American Continental Corporation

…wait for it….

Which was the parent company of the failed Lincoln Savings and Loan.

…wait for it….

And he pled guilty to three federal fraud counts in response to the failure of that institution.

…wait for it….

Also it turns out that he was the son in law of

…wait for it….

Charles Keating!

Someone on the McCain campaign staff is reading this somewhere, and invoking Bender when he shouts, “We’re boned!

Not Enough Money in the World

It’s a scary phrase, but when credit default swaps have a nominal value in excess of the GDP of the world, it’s true in a sense. The level of fraud, waste, and abuse is at a level that exceeds all the money in the world.

Scare quote courtesy of Chris Floyd:

Try to imagine that: a $55 trillion market now at risk of complete destruction. Even the derivative debt owed by individual institutions stands at nation-wrecking levels. For example, a single bank in Britain, Barclays again, holds more than $2.4 trillion in credit default swaps, the tradable “insurance” mechanism against securities default. This is more than the entire GDP of Great Britain. If all this paper goes bad, there are not enough assets in the entire country to pay it off. And that’s just one bank, in one country.

Well, isn’t that special.

SEC Failed to Monitor Bear Stearns Well Before Collapse

The SEC prematurely folded an investigation of Bear Stearns involvement in collateralized debt obligations:

In the report, obtained by CNBC, SEC Inspector General David Kotz says the agency inexplicably dropped the case in 2007, even after Bear Stearns had offered to pay a monetary settlement.

The report says the director of the SEC’s Miami office, David Nelson, had an “ongoing personal relationship” with the Bear Stearns attorney in the case. In dropping the case, Nelson allegedly told his friend, “Christmas is coming early this year,” adding Bear Stearns “can keep their money.”

More importantly, the SEC’s Inspector General notes that this investigation would likely have uncovered the problems that led to the demise of the investment bank.

Economics Update

Well, I just overheard on the radio that the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of the cost of shipping, just fell to a more than 5 year low.

Ships are sitting idle as manufacturers try to reduce inventory.

We are also seeing this at the other end of the manufacturer to market equation, with retail sales falling 1.2% in September…And remember, this was before Lehman imploded.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a report of the state of the economy, is pointing down too, as is the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

In energy, crude oil ended at less than $75/bbl today…..One note, when I predicted some time back that we would never see the south side of $100/bbl, I was wrong.

Interestingly enough we are also seeing reports that Paulson can give money to banks, but he can’t make them lend it out, which would seem to imply that we need someone more interventionist at the helm.

Overheard on Stellar Parthenon

I should note that the private BBS, Stellarparthenon.org, frequently supplies me with ideas, or at least a direction in the generally civil and well informed discussions there.*

It turns out that even the musings on conspiracy theories tend to be pretty literate and well reasoned.

Case in point, SP member “Pickapeppa” made the following observation:

So just for the sake of discussion, let’s say Bush does intend to declare martial law and become it’s first dictator.

What do you think would be the first thing he’d want control over besides the military (which he already has).

Perhaps the banks?

Well, I’m sleeping like a baby tonight.

*The “closed” bit is why there are, “generally civil and well informed discussions” there.