Category: Finance

Economics Update

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Well, you know that the economy sucks when lawyers are being laid off, in this case at Cadwalader, Wickersham* & Taft because the 70% decline in the commercial real estate market had created redundant personnel.

When you consider the fact that Citi will likely write-down its CDOs to the tune of $8 billion, following Merrill Lynch’s $5.7 B writedown of its CDOs, it’s not surprising nothing is moving.

Citi currently values its CDOs at 53¢ on the dollar, but Merrill sold at somewhere between 22¢ and 5.5¢ on the dollar (see this post), so this will be ugly for them, and for a lot of other financial institutions.

Some people are predicting writedowns of over $100 billion for Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, but it could be worse if there is a rush to the exits.

I think that it’s also pretty likely that the credit crunch had a lot to do with Mervyns, department stores filing for bankruptcy, reorganization, not liquidation, as the straw that breaks the Camel’s back is typically the withdrawal of credit.

Still, we have a decent numbers in the ADP jobs report, which has also strengthened the dollar.

Additionally, the efforts by government institutions continue with Federal Reserve extending its loan program to Wall Street banks, “Cash for Trash,” from mid-September to January 30 and the SEC has extended its naked short-selling ban until August 17.

In energy, oil is up, and retail gasoline is down.

*Interestingly enough, I probably would not have even noticed the story, but for the fact that the name Wikersham was there. he first political story that I have any recollection about was about that ship, and the problems that developed as a result of cabotage related issues with the Jones Act, which required it to stop in Canada between American ports,

I actually rode on the ship when my family was leaving Alaska.

More Evidence that Arbitration is a Racket

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This sad tail of corruption as a feature, not a bug, in arbitration courtesy of Jane Bryant Quinn.

Short story, people screwed over in auction rate security deals will likely have to be heard by arbitrators whose own companies are the subjects of actions by people screwed over in auction rate security deals.

This will be an issue that I will start dunning candidates on, because binding arbitration is a racket.

Merrill Lynch CDO Sale at Far Less than 22¢ on the Dollar

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Yesterday, I wrote about a 5.7 billion write-down that Merril was taking on CDOs.

It turns out that the numbers, which showed them getting 22¢ on the dollar are completely bogus. They took an even bigger haircut than reported.

Nouriel Roubin has the details, but the cliff notes version is:

  • Merrill financed the purchase.
  • The finance rate is at sub market rates.
  • The security for the deal is the same CDO crap that they are selling
  • Merrill has, “would absorb any losses on the CDOs beyond $1.68 billion”

Their face value is $30.6 billion, so this figures to a 5.5¢ on the dollar worst case.

FDIC Puts Brakes on overed Bonds

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As I wrote earlier, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is pushing a new (for the US, at least) sort of bond, the covered bond, to unfreeze the mortgage credit markets.

Well, it looks like the FDIC just put up a road block, saying that it is considering limiting these new bonds to 4% of bank liabilities.

It has expressed concern about the instruments might place additional risk on them:

“The FDIC is concerned that unrestricted growth, while the FDIC is evaluating the potential benefits and risks of covered bonds, could excessively increase the proportion of secured liabilities to unsecured liabilities,” the agency said. In other words, Back off my insurance fund. The agency did say it would consider revising its guidance after it has a chance to evaluate the effect of covered bonds on banks.

The FDIC could refuse to cover these bonds in the event of a bank failure, and as such, if they institute this policy, it may very well put a stake through the proposal’s heart.

Of course, these days, all real estate loans are risky instruments.

Loan Servicers Under Stress

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One of the funny bits of the current mortgage market is that even when the banks hold the loans, they don’t generally handle the money.

They pass this off to loan servicing firms, who send out the bills, collect checks, handle escrow, etc.

Well, it appears that they have to make payments of interest and principal to the loan holders for accounts up to 90 days delinquent, in addition to handling property tax payments, and as a result, they are taking a beating from the skyrocketing rate of delinquencies.

H/t HousingWire

Economics Update

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The Bush administration is now, finally, predicting a slowing economy, with a GDP growth rate of 1.6%…though with a higher prediction of inflation at 3.8%, it’s a net contraction, which is why they are also predicting an increase in the unemployment rate.

Given this environment, it is unsurprising that home prices fell in May by 0.9%, 15.8% year over year, which is grim.

What is surprising is that Consumer confidence was up a bit, to 51.9 from 51.0, but even 51.9 is very pessimistic.

We may be seeing a bottom of consumer pessimism, which is different from seeing a bottom to the credit crisis.

The slowdown seems to be driving the price of oil down, as well as the price of retail gasoline, and falling energy prices seem to be bolstering the dollar versus foreign currencies, though the bad news on Japanese unemployment, a 2 year high, may have contributed to this.

Still, the banks are buying lots of money from the Federal Reserve to deal with the liquidity problems, $75 billion this time, so we ain’t out of the woods.

For your amusement, a cartoon:

Another Day, Another Financial Term

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This time, it’s “Covered Bond”, and Sec Treasury Paulson is clarifying regulation to make them more attractive in the United States. (They are more common in Europe, particularly, according to the Wiki, Germany)

The difference between this and more common mortgage backed securities is that the banks have to keep the mortgages on their books, and the bonds are specifically secured with these bonds.

I don’t think that this will make much of a difference.

Until house prices bottom out in absolute dollar terms, which means that inflation might save us, the housing market will remain sluggish to frozen.

Economics Update

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The dollar is down relative to the Euro, because the further deterioration in the credit markets makes Fed rate hikes unlikely, though the US dollar has strengthened against the Canadian dollar, because oil has been down so much recently, which means that the Canadian trade surplus to the US, they are the US’s largest external oil supplier.

It looks to me like the financial markets are continuing their slow motion car wreck.

Banks are tightening business loans and commercial paper, decreasing total lending by 3%, and requiring much higher interest rates to account for the uncertainty.

As to what foreign investors are doing, I can’t speak for all of them, but Russia has cut investment in Fannie and Freddie by 50%, and the international monetary fund sees no light at the end of the tunnel on the housing crash.

The result is fairly straightforward, much tighter money, particularly for entities like Lehman, which has seen its borrowing costs skyrocket. They are now 7.7%, 6 months ago they were 5.2% for a 5 year bond.

This is a 4.2% premium US Treasury notes, which is about double the number in early January.

In energy, oil is up about $1/bbl today, largely on Iran concerns, but retail gasoline prices have continued to fall.

Lawrence Summers Calls for Nationalization of GSEs

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He is suggesting that if the GSEs do actually need a bailout, that the government should operate them for some period of years:

We need the GSEs to be highly active in support of the housing market and financial system in the months ahead. If authorities can see a path to their being able to play such a role in a framework where their borrowing is based on confidence in their financial position, rather than primarily on federal guarantees, then this is obviously the preferred alternative. But after what we have seen, such a judgment cannot be based on the GSEs’ own claims, the understandable desire of government officials to maintain confidence and attract private capital, or the fact that the GSEs are able to borrow — which only reflects the strength of federally provided credit assurances.

If this preferred alternative is, as I fear, not realistic given the state of GSE finances, the government should use its new receivership power to protect taxpayers and the financial system. In the process, payments to stockholders, holders of preferred stock and probably subordinated debtholders would be wiped out, conserving cash for the benefit of taxpayers. The GSEs’ borrowing costs would fall considerably, helping prospective homeowners.

In this scenario, the government would operate the GSEs as public corporations for several years. They would then be in a position to extend credit where appropriate to support resolution of the housing crisis. Once the crisis has passed, the federal government would divide their functions into government and private components, the latter of which would be sold off in multiple pieces. The proceeds could be used to fund the low-income housing support activity that was previously mandated to the GSEs.

It should be noted that Fannie Mae was a federal agency from the late 1930s to the late 1960s.

Economics Update

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Wekk, retail gasoline has finally dropped below $4.00 per gallon, the first time in almost two months, oil moved very little, depending on grade, somewhere between ±$0.15/bbl.

Meanwhile, Nouriel Roubini is arguing that foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds are increasingly less willing to take huge losses in order to bail the USA’s financial system out, and that this will lead to a systemic collapse, with, “ensuing fall of the U.S. will make this fire sale of the best U.S. private asset a true bargain basement deal: with the dollar price of these assets now imploding and with the U.S. dollar now in free fall non-residents will be able to buy most of U.S. Inc. for the cheapest bargain.”

One final note, and some information that shocked me, is the amount which short sales decreased in financial stocks as a result of the new SEC rules banning “naked” short selling: 98%.

S3 Matching Technologies is reporting that short sales in the newly regulated stocks fell by a factor of 50, which is far more than I would have expected.

Even if some of the decline in short sales was investors who were spooked by the new rules, it’s clear that the overwhelming number of short sellers are engaging in “naked” shorting.

Fitch Now Predicting ANOTHER 25% Drop in House Prices

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This was a part of their updating their ResiLogic mortgage loss model, which is used to rate residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS), and they now believe that in constant dollar terms, residential real estate will fall 25% over the next 5 years.

Peak to trough, local housing bubbles bursting are typically 5 years, but this is far more widespread, and the bubble is far frothier.

I think that they are too optimistic. They ignore the size of the bubble, the national nature of the bubble, and the fact that unsustainably low interests created the bubble.

I agree with Rich Toscano’s assessment he did two years ago, which was far grimmer, (a 3-parter, see here, here, and here), though it should be noted that it’s primarily about San Diego, one of the frothier markets before the bubble burst.

New Stock Market Terms

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Courtesy of WallStreetJackass:

CEO –Chief Embezzlement Officer.
CFO— Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET — A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET — A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
….

Read the rest at the site…It’s a hoot.

The Big Picture on the “Stop Excessive Speculation Act”

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I’ve always been a doubter that speculation is responsible for much of the run up in oil prices, but I wholeheartedly the proposed “Stop Excessive Speculation Act”, which would crack down on speculators by allowing the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) to regulate futures market and, “differentiate between “legitimate” and “illegitimate” hedge trading”.

The reason that I support this is because it is a real sea change. It is a refutation of the myth that completely unsupervised markets self-regulate to the benefit of society.

It is the arbitrage and exotic financial vehicles that have been created in the past nearly three decades of free market fundamentalism, frequently lauded by Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan, which are at the core of our current credit crunch.

The markets have devolved into complex self-serving insider deals that have harmed everyone.

I think that this bill is a baby step, but it’s a step in the right direction.