Category: Finance

The “Stress Testing” of the Big Banks is a Lie

I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on here!

As Atrios notes, this is, “just overpaying for sh&%pile.

Statement from the Treasury
Currently, the major U.S. banking institutions have capital in excess of the amounts required to be considered well capitalized.:

A strong, resilient financial system is necessary to facilitate a broad and sustainable economic recovery. The U.S. government stands firmly behind the banking system during this period of financial strain to ensure it will be able to perform its key function of providing credit to households and businesses. The government will ensure that banks have the capital and liquidity they need to provide the credit necessary to restore economic growth. Moreover, we reiterate our determination to preserve the viability of systemically important financial institutions so that they are able to meet their commitments. “We announced on February 10, 2009, a Capital Assistance Program to ensure that our banking institutions are appropriately capitalized, with high-quality capital. Under this program, which will be initiated on February 25, the capital needs of the major U.S. banking institutions will be evaluated under a more challenging economic environment. Should that assessment indicate that an additional capital buffer is warranted, institutions will have an opportunity to turn first to private sources of capital.

Otherwise, the temporary capital buffer will be made available from the government. This additional capital does not imply a new capital standard and it is not expected to be maintained on an ongoing basis. Instead, it is available to provide a cushion against larger than expected future losses, should they occur due to a more severe economic environment, and to support lending to creditworthy borrowers. Any government capital will be in the form of mandatory convertible preferred shares, which would be converted into common equity shares only as needed over time to keep banks in a well-capitalized position and can be retired under improved financial conditions before the conversion becomes mandatory. Previous capital injections under the Troubled Asset Relief Program will also be eligible to be exchanged for the mandatory convertible preferred shares.

The conversion feature will enable institutions to maintain or enhance the quality of their capital. “Currently, the major U.S. banking institutions have capital in excess of the amounts required to be considered well capitalized. This program is designed to ensure that these major banking institutions have sufficient capital to perform their critical role in our financial system on an ongoing basis and can support economic recovery, even under an economic environment that is more challenging than is currently anticipated. The customers and the providers of capital and funding can be assured that as a result of this program participating banks will be able to move forward to provide the credit necessary for the stabilization and recovery of the U.S. economy. Because our economy functions better when financial institutions are well managed in the private sector, the strong presumption of the Capital Assistance Program is that banks should remain in private hands.”

(Emphasis is from FT Alphaville, not the original)

I don’t know about you, but it appears to me that Timothy Geithner has absolutely no intention of applying the normal standards of solvency to any of the big banks.

We have this further reinforced by this lovely quote:

Said one high-level official, “I think the market is missing that the whole intent of this process is to show that the banks have enough capital for even worse outcomes than we currently envision and to show there’s a program in place to give banks access to that capital if they need it.”

So that’s Geithner’s and by extension Barack Obama’s official policy: privatize profits, and nationalize losses.

(H/T Naked Capitalism for finding the quote)

BTW, just when you thought that Geithner could not get his tongue any further up Wall Street’s anus, we have news that he wants to loan massive amounts of money to hedge funds, to encourage them to buy large pieces of the sh%$pile.

By Dagon’s doughnuts, if this is that bad, we need to nationalize preprivatize the banks tomorrow.

I’m Speechless (Scummy Bank Edition)

It appears that a number of states have moved to debit cards for unemployment applications, and the banks that have been contracted the service are nickel and diming the recipients with fees (see also here).

Even better, the banks in question are TARP recipients.

I will note that the banks are already making millions in interest on the “float” on the accounts sitting there, and if you call to complain, they charge you for that too.

Quoting Bruce Cockburn, If I had a rocket launcher, some son-of-a-bitch would die.”

Citi’s Plan to Get Bailed out….Again

Once again, I can’t believe it, but I’m quoting Henry Blodgett, and he runs the numbers on the proposed conversion of preferred stock to common stock:

And what will the US taxpayer get for this preferred stock conversion? 40% of the company for some of its $45 billion of preferred, say reports. The reports add that Citigroup’s goal here is to keep the US’s ownership under 50%, so this won’t be a de facto nationalization.

Well, that’s nice for Citigroup…and another ream-job for taxpayers.

Citigroup’s common equity is currently worth $10 billion. If the US were to convert all $45 billion of its preferred at the current stock price, it should end up with 80% of the company, not 40%.

Basically, preferred stock is very similar from an accounting standpoint, to debt, while common stock is assets….What’s more in the process of writing off debt to assets, the taxpayer is expected to take a 50% haircut.

So the way for the banks to stay out of government hands is for the government to own the banks.

Citi also wantsother sovereign investors, such as, “Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, and the Kuwait Investment Authority,” to take part in a similar debt to equity swap, though it is not clear if they are being asked to take a similar haircut.

It appears that the US government, particularly treasury are, “open to considering a request to so do,” because placing an insolvent bank, which is what we have with Citi, in receivership is, at least according to Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner evil beyond belief.

Someone needs to explain to Mr. Geithner that he is no longer an employee of the New York banks, as he was when he was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

When Lebanon is A Safe Haven for Your Money….

You know that we are completely boned:

Instead, the silver-haired banker became a hero by playing it very, very safe. In 2005, he defied pressure from the Lebanese business community and bucked international trends to issue what now looks like a prophetic decree: a blanket order barring any bank in his country from investing in mortgage-backed securities, which contributed to the most dramatic collapse of financial institutions since the Great Depression.

So as major banks in America and Europe were shuttered or partly nationalized and thousands of people in the U.S. financial sector were laid off, Lebanon’s banks had one of their best years ever.

Billions in cash continue to pour in to the relative safety of Lebanese savings accounts, with comfy but not extravagant yields of 6%. A nation shunned for years as the quintessential failed state has become a pretty safe bet, or as safe a bet as investors are likely to find in this climate.

Lebanon as safe haven….I have a real problem wrapping my head around this.

Economics Update

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index showed a small bump in January, though it should be noted that December was an absolut disaster, so I’m callijng dead cat bounce, particularly since the 3 month moving average is at a record low.

It also appears that the gift that keeps on giving, AIG, is looking for more welfare from the government.

The US government already owns 70% of the company. How about giving all of senior management the boot….TODAY.

BTW, it appears that the rising levels of derfault on commercial real estate are giving Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart the willies. He says that it is keeping him up at night.

Meanwhile, the go-go free market capital of the Arab world, Dubai, has just gotten a bailout from the United Arab Emirates following the failure of its bond offering.

Dubai has done its level best to cast itself as the banking sector of the Arab petro-states in the region, and now it looks like things are going bad there too.

Not only are there problems with bond offerings, but thousands of expats are fleeing the country, because they have lost their jobs, and under the law there, they face debtors prison.

Meanwhile, it appears that oil spiked above $40 on Friday, but it’s below $40/bbl again.

In currency, the dollar gained against both the Yen and Euro.

The Yen is down largely on concerns about declining exports will effect Japan’s export driven economy.

The concern with the Euro is that the former Warsaw Pact and Soviet States that were absorbed (too soon) in the optimism that followed the fall of the Berlin Wall are beginning to resemble Iceland, or Ireland, or Argentina.

I will be posting on Citi, and “stress testing”, later.

Schadenfreude, Sweet Schadenfreude

Goldman Sachs partners are being forced to borrow money to cover margin calls on their shares:

Several Goldman Sachs partners have leveraged their Goldman Sachs stock to buy alternative investments such as hedge funds & private equity, and they have done so through their Goldman Sachs brokerage accounts.

But Goldman stock has declined in value by more than 50 percent since last spring, meaning that Goldman Sachs is in the awkward position of making margin calls on its own partners, who can’t meet those calls because their alternative investments are underwater and they don’t have enough cash on hand.

Now those partners are being forced to borrow money—millions of dollars—to meet Goldman Sachs’ own margin calls.

(emphasis mine)

That’s some yummy schadenfreude….Until you realize that, even if completely wiped out, they are still worth millions….sigh.

Economics Update

Well, we have another Asian economy cratering in Q4 of 2008, with Taiwan’s GDP shrinking at an 8.36 annual rate. Unsurprisingly, they are now predicting a contraction for 2009.

This is “post Berlin Wall coming down shock-treatment elderly begging in streets” numbers.

In the US, producer prices posted a large gain, 0.8%, or about a 9½% inflation rate. I’m not certain if this is good or bad news, as the concern right now is deflation, but the impetus for the jump seems to be massive cash infusions from the Fed and the Treasury, which implies that we may be tiptoeing toward Zimbabwe.

Still, the jobless report was brutal, with initial claims remaining at 627,000, and continuing claims jumping to 4.99 million, the highest number ever.

I wouldn’t expect manufacturing or building to be a part of a recovery any time soon though, as the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey hit a record low, as did the Architecture Billings Index (ABI).

Note that the ABI typically presages construction activity 9-12 months ahead.

Additionally, I think that we are near seeing some of the non AIG insurance giants failing, with the first indicator being that Prudential Financial Inc. being excluded from the Federal Reserve’s commercial paper program, because Fitch Ratings downgraded them.

Note that Prudential Financial Inc. is the parent of Prudential Insurance, and that the insurance division can still use the “Commercial Paper Funding Facility,” for a while, at least.

The dollar fell a bit today, largely on reduced concerns about the smaller nations in the Euro zone going completely broke.

In energy, oil rose, though it is still well below $40/bbl, because of a surprise drop in inventory.

More Calls to End “To Big to Fail”

We are hearing more calls for breaking up the banking giant, this one from Rusty Cloutier, of MidSouth Bank, a regional institution.

Clouter, as CEO of a bank, obviously has an axe to grind, as the prospect of the banking giants getting massive bailouts makes it difficult for him to raise capital.

Right now, this doesn’t seem to be on the agenda, but three weeks none of the very serious people in Washington DC were willing to discuss it as anything but a joke, but yesterday hell froze over, and Alan Greenspan, longtime friend of Ayn Rand, said that it was the least bad solution.

Hopefully, we will see this bubble up over the next few weeks/months.

H/t Calculated Risk

Economics Update

Well, I guess the lede is that the Federal Reserve is cutting its 2009 economic forecast….Reality has a way of doing that.

Real estate is ugly today, with housing starts and applications for building permits falling to record lows, which is not surprising as it’s clear that there is a significant overhang in inventory.

That overhang in inventory is why builder sentiment is at the staggering number 9, with 50 being neutral.

It’s not pessimism, it’s sanity.

We did get another jump in mortgage applications, but that’s just a refi surge when the numbers go below 5%.

We also saw a record slide in GDP for OECD nations in Q4 of 2008.

On the brighter side, I’m not in the Ukraine, where industrial output shrank by 34.1%, which is return to the stone age type numbers.

We also have record lows from Taiwan’s central bank, which cut its benchmark rate to 1.25%.

We also have some insurance news, including our friends the monoliner bond insurers.

First, we have MBIA splitting itself. It’s separating its municipal bond insurance from its mortgage backed securities interests, which is likely a good thing in the long run, though S&P downgraded them from AA to BBB+, which, while not junk bond status, is rather too close to junk bond status for comfort.

Additionally, Moodys cut ratings mortgage insurers MGIC, Radian, Republic, and Genwort.

We are actually seeing some indications that the price drops in commodities are dropping, most notably the Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs has doubled recently, which indicates more cargo, particularly in terms of raw material.

Obama’s housing rescue plan appears to have strengthened the dollar, and driven oil up today.

A Good Article on Why the CDS May Still Destroy US

This is a good read on why credit default swaps are destroying our financial system.

The money quote:

These are deliberate flaws built into the game that include the lack of a central counterparty, no effective limit on dealer leverage and a schizophrenic pricing methodology that has nothing to do with the several different types of underlying risk contained in these contracts. It is a market designed by and for the seller, to the disadvantage of the buyer. But CDS may also be thought of as a poker game where the dealers have few chips on the table.

It comes down to excessive leverage, and the author, Christopher Whalen, is rather more of an optimist than I am about the outcome and how soon the mess will be straightened out.

Hell Freezes Over

Yes, Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan is now saying that bank nationalization deprivitization is likely the least bad solution to the banking crisis:

In an interview, Mr Greenspan, who for decades was regarded as the high priest of laisser-faire capitalism, said nationalisation could be the least bad option left for policymakers.

”It may be necessary to temporarily nationalise some banks in order to facilitate a swift and orderly restructuring,” he said. “I understand that once in a hundred years this is what you do.”

This from a close friend, and acolyte of, Ayn Rand.

Hint to Geithner and Summers, when Alan fracking Greenspan says it’s time to nationalize, it’s time to nationalize.

Why Geithner Sucked on the Bank Rescue Plan Rollout

Well now we have an idea as to why Geithner’s unveiling of the stimulus package sucked. According to the Washington Post, a few days before the scheduled announcement date, Geithner discovered that the plan would not work, and he had to change it.

He wanted to do his “bad bank” thing, but, as people have been saying for weeks, if you pay fair value, the banks are insolvent, and if you pay enough to keep them afloat, then you waste trillions of taxpayer dollars.

So, now we have the public-private partnership and “stress tests”.

The question is whether he made this choice because he realized that he wrong, or if it was because he knew that he couldn’t sell the bad bank.

Given Geithner’s history, his last job was as an employees of those investment banks, I believe that he still wants to bail out the banks with no cost, but he hasn’t been able to figure out a way to sell it.

Bill Moyers has an interview with former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson, and he says that we need to break the oligarchs who got us into this situation, just like the IMF did with 3rd world nations. (video and transcript at link)

I agree with Mr. Johnson on nationalization pre-privatization, and I do not believe that Timothy Geithner will do this.

His career has been made as a protege of people like Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin, and so he is joined at the hip to Wall Street.

Not Enough Bullets: TARP Recipients

So, after taking billions of dollars of money from the treasury, and trillions from the Federal Reserve’s sh%$pile for cash program, we now discover that they are overcharging for federally guaranteed loans:

Since the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. started guaranteeing debt in November, banks have charged clients, including themselves, more than $375 million in fees on $154 billion of deals in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial Services Group Inc., which received $7.6 billion from the U.S. Treasury, paid Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co. 30 basis points, or $6 million, in December to sell FDIC-backed notes due in three-and- a-half years. A month later, JPMorgan and two other banks charged Freddie Mac 7.5 basis points for a similar offering.

(emphasis mine)

Also, the bailed out banks continue to maintain lavish offices, complete with office staff, for their recently ousted CEOs:

Looking for Charles O. “Chuck” Prince, ousted 15 months ago as Citigroup Inc.’s chief executive officer? Just call his extension at the bank, which still pays for his office and secretary in Midtown Manhattan.

Former Citigroup investment-banking head Michael Klein also has a free office and secretary after receiving a $34.3 million exit package when he quit in July 2008. John Reed, 70, who hasn’t worked at the bank since he resigned as co-CEO in 2000 with a $5 million parting bonus, is entitled to an office and secretary for as long as he wants.

Sanford I. “Sandy” Weill, who retired as chairman in 2006, is ending a 10-year consulting contract with the bank in April after just three years. The agreement gave him millions of dollars in perks, including an office, car and driver and use of company aircraft, which he gave up in February.

Sure as hell beats working for a living, I guess.

It appears to me that we have our own oligarchs in the United States, and we need to deal with them appropriately.

Unfortunately, I can’t find Vladimir Putin on my speed dial.