Category: Foreign Relations

Iranians Sick of Ahmadinejad Too

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While Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the most prominent Iranian leader, it’s also true that he actually has very little role in foreign policy.

It now appears that officials who are involved in Iranian foreign policy are telling him to STFU, with Ali Akbar Velayati, a top foreign policy adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying that, “Iranian officials must avoid making ‘provocative’ statements”, and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki saying that the EU proposals on Uranium enrichment were “constructive”.

There are more adults in the various executive branches of Iran than there are in the US White House.

Polish Will Not Sign EU Treaty

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I think that this will be in the long run a good thing for the EU. The behavior of the EU nations, particularly Sarkozy in France, suggesting that the Irish must re vote their referendum plays into all the worst stereotypes of the EU as a fundamentally anti-Democratic institution.

The fact that Polish President Lech Kaczynski is refusing to sign the treaty pretty much puts a stake in the heart of all these efforts, and makes it far more likely that other governments will take similar actions, because they now have political cover.

The point is very simple: If you want to forge a governance document, and what you come up with is so complex that literally no one in the world fully understands all of it, and your response to failed referenda to approve it is simply to restructure the agreement so that there is very little public input, you are being an idiot.

When your policy is rejected by the people that you ostensibly represent, taking the people that you ostensibly represent out of the picture is dangerously misguided.

Polish MP Says Missile Defense Deal Basically Done

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Yep, with 6½ months to go in the Bush regime, it appears that Poland may have completed an agreement to place a US ABM system in their country.

As I’ve said before, it’s diplomatically disastrous and it’s poorly located to deal with the stated threat, Iran.

Bush and His Evil Minions™ want the missile site there because they want a hostile and threating Russia, because they feel that it benefits them politically.

Sy Hersh: Bush and His Evil Minions&trade Escalating Covert Ops In Iran. Goal: Create Casus Belli

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Seeing as some in the administration *cough* Dick Cheney *cough* they see this as a win, win, I find the idea that they are funding military and terrorist actions in Iran to be credible.

My guess would be is that if an American special ops soldier were captured by Iran, they would consider it to be a lucky break for them, because it would allow them to strike.

It reinforces their view that American military might is the only way to conduct foreign policy, and they believe that it would benefit Republicans in November.

So Now The Europeans Sound Like Washington State Congressmen

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There is no evidence that this is happening yet, but US merchants of death are worried that it might(paid subscription required):

Access to the European defense market for U.S. companies could be one of the first areas where the GAO decision will leave its mark. One senior U.S. industry official developing business opportunities in Europe says there’s concern that European countries will react by excluding U.S. products for consideration in competitions on their home turf.

If the Northrop Grumman/EADS North America team were to be stripped of the tanker contract, it would have “unpleasant” implications for the transatlantic security relationship on a broader scale, notes Giles Merritt, director of the Security & Defense Agenda, a Brussels-based think tank. “Europe will be in a distinctly unfriendly frame of mind” when it comes to matters such as troop commitments to Afghanistan and other initiatives that would require burden-sharing, he states.

Let’s be clear. This is not yet happening. What’s going on is that Americans are afraid that the Europeans will act like them.

An Interesting Sidebar to the Israeli Bombing in Syria

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First, Israel is alleging that Syria had a deal with Iran to send some of the spent fuel back to them for Plutonium processing, and second, the raid may have been what led to the current talks.

First, it appears that the fact that Bashir Assad remained in power following the bombing gave the Israelis confidence that he was actually in control, and second, it appears that the bombing reminded the Syrians that the “gang that can’t shoot straight” show that occurred in the Lebanon war is the exception, not the rule.

Together, both articles paint an interesting picture.

Bush Administration to Pull DPRK from Terror Watch List

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It’s actually quite refreshing that Bush and His Evil Minions™ are acutally doing something to deescalate the diplomatic situation with North Korea.

Not surprisingly, Cheney, et al, are steadfast against this.

The fact is that the North Koreans are not crazy, they are paranoid, and when you have Cheney lobbying for a military attack, that’s just being a realist.

Hopefully, this will be a step towards formal diplomatic relations. The only thing keeping the regime in power is paranoia and distrust of the USA.

A Brilliant Solution in Zimbabwe

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In a New York Times OP/ED, Peter Godwin muses on what to do about the brutal war that Mugabe is waging on his own people.

He notes that the international community should delegitimize the Mugabe regime, and take steps to recognize the government in exile.

Then he has his moment of genius:

Of course, South Africa could use its economic power to draw Mr. Mugabe’s rule to an end in weeks rather than months. Yet Mr. Mbeki has steadfastly refused to act, providing a protective cloak for Mr. Mugabe’s repression. And just a few weeks ago, even as opposition members were being tortured, Mr. Mbeki visited Zimbabwe, allowing himself to be garlanded at the airport and displayed on state-run TV with a broadly grinning Mr. Mugabe. In the United Nations Security Council, where South Africa currently has a seat, Mr. Mbeki has opposed attempts to put the political situation in Zimbabwe on the agenda.

If Mr. Mbeki’s cost-benefit calculus has been such that he hasn’t seen it necessary to take tougher action, perhaps it’s time to change that calculus. Perhaps, for example, now is not the time for you to book a safari to South Africa. Or for you, or any institution that manages your funds, to make new investments in the country.

Most important, there is the FIFA soccer World Cup, for which South Africa is to act as host in 2010. That may seem like a long way off, but South Africa is already investing huge amounts both financially and politically, for what is supposed to be its triumphal coming-out party. Maybe Zimbabwe should become to the South Africa-hosted World Cup what Tibet has been to the Beijing Olympics — the pungent albatross that spoils every press conference and mars every presentation with its insistent odor.

Perhaps it’s time to share the Zimbabweans’ pain, to help persuade Mr. Mbeki to bear down on its source by threatening to grab the world’s soccer ball and take our games elsewhere.

I don’t follow soccer, so I was unaware that the World Cup would be in South Africa.

This is brilliant, and people should start lobbying FIFA now to change the venue.

Tsvangirai Takes Refuge in Dutch Embassy, but Here Comes Mbeki to the Rescue

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While he has not formally requested asylym, it’s clear that Tsvangirai believes that his life is in danger, which is why he’s sleeping there.

We also have Thabo Mbeki traveling to Zimbabwe, to make a “final plea” to Mugabe about doing the right thing. We can be sure that Mbeki’s effort will be ineffectual, and will be full of enabling language. That is what he’s done for the past 10 years.

US Talking With Lithuania About Missile Interceptor Location

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It appears that because the Poles are getting cold feet, or demanding more for the base, they are talking with Lithuania about locating the missiles there.

This means a number of things:

  1. The relatively new Polish government is not being as cooperative as they would like.
  2. That most other nations are not interested (the Lithuanians really hate the Russians)
  3. That this missile defense installation is directed against the Russians, and not the Iranians.

The last point is simple: If you have a sub optimal location, one that is too far north to protect parts of Turkey, Greece, and Italy, starting negotiations with a country that is further north, and hence less well suited to intercepting Iranian missiles, but just as well suited to intercepting a Russian strike.

What is going on is simple: This is Republicans trying to recreate the cold war, because it benefits them politically.

Not Getting it in the EU

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Looking at this report on the responses to the failure of the Irish referendum on the new EU treaty, it’s clear that the many of the movers and shakers simply don’t get what their problem is.

I am generally not a big fan of the referendum as a process, but it is a valid process, and the degree that the Eurocrats are claiming that it is somehow illegitimate, they are reinforcing every negative stereotype about them.

The problem is quite simple, and has 3 parts:

  1. The new constitution is too damn complex. At 250 pages, no one understands all of its sections, and so this breeds distrust.
  2. The response to the failure of the last constitution, where France and the Netherlands had referenda that failed was to eliminate referenda, which further breeds distrust in the process.
  3. Among the Eurocrats, there seems to be the idea that the decision making structures of the EU must be insulated from politics, which means that they are insulated from democracy, which further breeds distrust.

Simply put, in order to update the EU governance structures such that they will win the support of the public, or at least the Irish public, since any change in Ireland mandates a referenda, these structures must be seen as less opaque and more democratic.