Category: Foreign Relations

Militants Cultivated By Pakistani ISI Now Out of Control

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The Pakistani intelligence service, the ISI, has for some time cultivated networks of militants, with the idea of being to control them.

Well, it appears now that these militants are saying, “So long and thanks for all the fish.”

As the military has moved against them, the militants have turned on their former handlers, the officials said. Joining with other extremist groups, they have battled Pakistani security forces and helped militants carry out a record number of suicide attacks last year, including some aimed directly at army and intelligence units as well as prominent political figures, possibly even Benazir Bhutto.

The growing strength of the militants, many of whom now express support for Al Qaeda’s global jihad, presents a grave threat to Pakistan’s security, as well as NATO efforts to push back the Taliban in Afghanistan. American officials have begun to weigh more robust covert operations to go after Al Qaeda in the lawless border areas because they are so concerned that the Pakistani government is unable to do so.

This was absolutely forseeable. It was a marriage of convenience on both sides.

In a very real way, it mirrors the US relationship with Pakistan….And the House of Saud….And the sh^%tty little oil monarchies all across the Gulf….etc.

Castro’s Final Days?

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Castro is now saying that he is too unhealthy to campaign in parliamentary elections.

My guess is that he’s not long to this world.

Hopefully, the US policy following his death will be a dropping of sanctions, and an agreement on policies to keep the Cuban émigré community out. They are more poisonous than Achmed Chalabi.

Machiavelli got it right when he said (Discourses, Book 2, Chapter 31):

“It ought to be considered, therefore, how vain are the faith and promises of those who find themselves deprived of their country. For, as to their faith, it has to be borne in mind that anytime they can return to their country by other means than yours, they will leave you and look to the other, notwithstanding whatever promises they had made you. As to their vain hopes and promises, such is the extreme desire in them to return home, that they naturally believe many things that are false and add many others by art, so that between those they believe and those they say they believe, they fill you with hope, so that relying on them you will incur expenses in vain, or you undertake an enterprise in which you ruin yourself….. A Prince, therefore, ought to go slowly in undertaking an enterprise upon the representations of an exile, for most of the times he will be left either with shame or very grave injury.

In a country of 300 million, the wacko wing Cuban émigré community has damaged US diplomacy and credibility significantly.
If they given ties to Cuba through property restoration, they will create an unstable despotic state that will be a US security risk.

To quote Tallyrand on the Bourbons, “They have learned nothing and they have forgotten nothing. “

Justice Deptartment Says State Department Offers of Immunity Make Prosecution Difficult

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Gee, I wonder if those offers of immunity, which make complication prosecution because they, “might make it difficult to prove that evidence gathered by federal prosecutors did not stem from statements made by the guards after they were promised limited immunity,” have anything to do with the fact that this guy is a loyal Republican donor from a family of loyal Republican donors.

It certainly seems that Blackwater has been using State to run interference on drunken murder, fraudulent billing practices, and human sacrifice.

OK, the last one is pulled out of my ass, but I’m going BillO here.

Israel Coalition Government Falters

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Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu’s has pulled out the government, and subtracting its 11 lawmakers from the government leaves a narrow majority of 67 in the 120-seat Knesset.

They objected to talks with the Palestinians.

This also means that the Ultra-Orthodox Shas party, with 12 members, is all that prevents a new round of elections, that Olmert would almost certainly lose, and Shas has said that it would leave the government if any compromise is made over Jerusalem.

You’ve gotta love Israeli politics.

BTW, this sort of crap is why proportional representation sucks wet farts from dead pigeons.

Poland Worries About Being Left Holding the Bag on the “Missile Shield”

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I think that the new government in Poland realizes that George W. Bush does not stand up for his allies, and his successor will be unlikely to stand up for George W. Bush’s allies, so they are special military treaty ahead of negotiations on a US missile shield in Europe, such as the ones with Turkey and Italy.

For Poland, “The worst scenario is a situation in which Poland would agree to the shield, will incur the political costs and then the base is not built, because of a change of government in the United States”.

They are afraid of being left holding the bag.

With a year left in the reign of the Avignon President, it’s a sensible concern.

Bob Gates: Moron

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I guess that Robert Gates is just Don Rumsfeld without the charisma.

He’s criticising NATO forces for not doing a proper job in Afghanistan.

Of course, he would be a bit more convincing if:

  • The US had not allowed Osama bin Laden and Mullah Mohammad Omar get away because they were too timid about potential US casualties.
  • Bush and His Evil Minions™ hadn’t simply dropped a not-yet pacified south to go after Saddam, who had nothing to do with 911.
  • If US tactics in the south weren’t so violent and indiscriminate (particularly the bomb happy USAF), that the British weren’t asking US special forces to get the hell out.
  • If US aid policies in Afghanistan weren’t primarily for the benefit of US contractors who were Republican donors.
  • If the US wasn’t juxtaposing this incompetence in delivering aid with an aggressive anti-opium program that leaves Afghan farmers with a choice between aiding the Taliban or starving.
  • The US wasn’t currently limiting its operations in the east, where Taliban activity is minimal.
  • If the US were not committing a smaller proportion of its military to Afghanistan than the NATO allies.

Is there a single competent Republican party Apparatchik in this entire nation?

Musharraf Fingerprints Increasingly Appear on Bhutto Assassination

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First, the Musharraf govenrment is rejecting a U.N. inquiry, on the basis that “No foreign government was involved”, though they have already fingered al Queida, a group of foreign terrorists based, at least in part in Afghanistan, and definitely supported by a foreign group, the Taliban.

Bag News Notes also has an interesting analysis, where they lay the blame at the feet of Condoleeza Rice, who thought that another “election”, like those in Iraq, would show democracy on the march in Pakistan, but then she never followed up, and left Bhutto unprotected.

The $736 Million 1000 Man Stove on the Euphrates

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Yes, after 736 million dollars, the State Department’s Baghdad Embassy is a fire hazard.

In addition, the power plant and electrical has not been tested at all.

No surprise. A ¾ Billion contract handed out to a, “Contractor had never built an embassy and did not realize that under State Department rules it needed approval for substituting certain materials.”

But I’m sure that they have a long history of contributing to the Republican party.

Pirate Bay.org Being Hauled into Court Again

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Swedish law is fairly lax, and my guess is that they proprietors of the site will win.

They are are being charged with conspiracy to breach copyrights.

Considering the fact that , “seven parliamentarians from the ruling conservative party called in a newspaper opinion article last month for the decriminalization of file sharing.”, and the fact that the Pirate party has more members than the Greens, I’m not surprised that they are relying on public defenders.

This is being driven by the US, and everyone knows it.

Australia Looking at Procuring Russian Fighters

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I think that this is more gamesmanship than anything else. The Australian militaryreally want the F-22, but it has not been cleared for export, so so they claiming that they are evaluating the MiG-29 and the Su-35.

The Australians are not happy about having the buy the F-35 JSF, because it lacks the agility that they want, and because there are serious scheduling and budget issues.

The new defence minister has meanwhile warned that Canberra will not tolerate further delays or an increase in the cost of the F-35.

Additionally, Australia is making noises about canceling its $5.8 billion purchase of 24 F/A-18 E/F “Superhornets” as a part or reevaluating their defense needs.

My assessment is that they are playing chicken in an attempt to get the US Congress to change the law that prevents F-22 exports, though even with that hurdle taken care of, the development costs of an export version looks to be around $1 billion.

Straights of Hormuz, Gulf of Tonkin, It’s All the Same

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This report sounds very familiar, a bunch of small boats, “threatening” US naval vessels.

While I have no doubt that the Iranians have detailed plans for an assault of US Naval forces, this is not how they would do it.

On Black Monday in 1987, the US and Iranians engaged in the largest surface engagement since the battle of Leyte Gulf, which resulted in the destruction of half the Iranian surface fleet.

It didn’t get much coverage because of the stock market crash that day.

The Iranians have a very good idea of how much they are over matched, even in littoral waters like the Persian Gulf.

They won’t be broadcasting threats on the radio and broadcasting, “Your ships will explode in a couple of minutes”.

Any attack will be conducted in small boats, launched from a number of different locations, and it will be conducted in radio silence.

There was no attack, or any provocation, just some testosterone laden maneuvering.

Bad Investments

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Interesting numbers on foreign investments in the US:

Foreign investors exploited the declining U.S. dollar during the past three months to snap up American companies, taking the biggest share of U.S. deals in at least a decade.

Buyers from Dubai to the Netherlands accounted for 46 percent of the $230.5 billion of U.S. mergers and acquisitions announced in the fourth quarter, the largest portion since 1998 when Bloomberg started compiling the data. The total excludes $17.9 billion of so-called passive investments by state-run funds in Asia and the Middle East in U.S. banks, including New York-based Citigroup Inc.

So, counting the “passive investments” we’re over 50%.

This reminds me of when the Japanese bought in the US in the early 1990s, and later sold at a 30% loss.

This time though, I think that it’s more likely that the losses will come from a plummeting dollar.

Economic Update

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The Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing index had declined for the first time in 11 months. Predictions had placed it at 50.5, rather slow growth, but it came in at 47.7, on drops in orders and production, and we have the same thing happening worldwide, with the Global manufacturing PMI falling to a 4½ year low, which seems to indicate that the rest of the world has not “decoupled” from the US economy.

Singapore’s economy is taking a hit, because Americans are no longer able to buy their stuff.

Then we have the other Mecca of Anglo-Saxon capitalism going through the same real-estate crisis that is hitting in the US

The latest figures indicate that 23 per cent of people – 9.5 million adults – were finding their current level of debt “unmanageable”. Although the Bank of England cut the base rate of interest last month, an estimated 1.4 million people will still have to pay more for their home loans when their fixed-rate deals come to an end this year, costing an extra £150 to £250 a month.

Sounds familiar.

Merrill Lynch has sold itself for some more cash, which seems to indicates taht there are some more losses, probably significant ones, that have not yet found their way to the balance sheets and quarterly reports.

In further banking news, General Electric and the Blackstone Group had to backoff of a buyout of PHH, a mortgage and auto-leasing company, because their financing fell through.

Finally, we have reports that dollar-based assets held by the world’s national banks have fallen to a record low. There is not yet a stampede to the door, but people are definitely standing up and stretching their legs.

The data indicated that of the $3.8 trillion in allocated reserves, about 63.8 percent was held in U.S. dollars, down from 65 percent at the end of the second quarter this year.

Snark, As Only the British Can Do It

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The Financial Times has an absolutely snarkalicious review of John Bolton’s book, Surrender is Not an Option.

A quick sample:

….

A lack of intellectual curiosity might not matter if Bolton were a gifted storyteller, or interestingly introspective. But that is not the case. If he has ever had difficult personal or moral choices to make, he is not letting on. At one point, he does acknowledge that he took steps to avoid being drafted to fight in Vietnam. He writes: “I made the cold calculation that I wasn’t going to waste time on a futile struggle,” adding: “Looking back, I am not terribly proud of this calculation.” The whole episode is dealt with in a paragraph.

Many people of Bolton’s generation made similar decisions. But it would be interesting to hear a little more on this subject, from a man who has given his book the bellicose title Surrender is Not an Option. When it came to Vietnam, surrender was not an option for Bolton because he never got close enough to the enemy to make it feasible.

….

(emphasis mine)

Go read it.