Category: Former Soviet Union

Scott Walker Started as a Tragedy, and is Finishing as a Comedy

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So, the Republican Party’s next “Great White Hope,” Wisconsin governor Scott Walker’s assault on the right to unionize, has gone from the Republican’s best plan for tearing down the base of the Democratic party to a rather unpopular farce.

First, attempts in Indiana Republicans to ape* Wisconsin led to Indiana lawmakers fleeing the state to stop the effort.

I don’t know what this sh%$ is doing for the economies of Wisconsin and Indiana, but it sure is boosting the hospitality industry in Illinois.

Also, it is becoming increasingly apparent that these actions are unpopular, the polls are pretty strongly against it, and Republican notables are backing away from the idea, with Indiana governor Mitch Daniels telling the ‘Phants in his legislature to kill the bill, and Florida governor, and über-Teabagger, Rick Scott coming out against the idea.

So it already looks like this strategy is playing a lot like the 1995 government shutdown, and now Scott Walker got punked by the editor of the Buffalo Beast, who pretended to be David Koch.

The interesting take aways here is that he’s not seeing any need to compromise and is planning to:

  • Dock the state Senator’s pay.
  • Looking at going after them on ethics violations, and a possible felony, if they took food or lodging assistance from unions. (FWIW, he accepted an invite from “David Koch” for a flight out to California and being put up there later in the call)
  • That he’s intending to organize a “summit” of some sort with the Democrats, and use their presence to push the vote through while they are in the room with him (it’s a quorum/recess game).
  • Discussed planting “troublemakers” with the activists to either create bad press, or provide an excuse to crack down.

So, he’s now on tape admitting that he cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith, the quote is:

I would be willing to sit down and talk to him, the assembly Democrat leader, plus the other two Republican leaders—talk, not negotiate and listen to what they have to say if they will in turn—but I’ll only do it if all 14 of them will come back and sit down in the state assembly…legally, we believe, once they’ve gone into session, they don’t physically have to be there. If they’re actually in session for that day, and they take a recess, the 19 Senate Republicans could then go into action and they’d have quorum…so we’re double checking that. If you heard I was going to talk to them that’s the only reason why. We’d only do it if they came back to the capital with all 14 of them…

So he’s been caught on tape admitting that he would basically launch a sneak attack during peace talks, good luck getting anyone to trust you ever again.

*No offense intended to primates. I’m using the verb form, and I can understand how simians might find comparing them to Republicans to be offensive.

The (legal in Wisconsin) tape of the phone call and the transcript after the break:


Part 1


Part 2

Transcript follows:

Walker: Hi; this is Scott Walker.
Koch: Scott! David Koch. How are you?
Walker: Hey, David! I’m good. And yourself?
Koch: I’m very well. I’m a little disheartened by the situation there, but, uh, what’s the latest?
Walker: Well, we’re actually hanging pretty tough. I mean—you know, amazingly there’s a much smaller group of protesters—almost all of whom are in from other states today. The State Assembly is taking the bill up—getting it all the way to the last point it can be at where it’s unamendable. But they’re waiting to pass it until the Senate’s—the Senate Democrats, excuse me, the assembly Democrats have about a hundred amendments they’re going through. The state Senate still has the 14 members missing but what they’re doing today is bringing up all sorts of other non-fiscal items, many of which are things members in the Democratic side care about. And each day we’re going to ratchet it up a little bit…. The Senate majority leader had a great plan he told about this morning—he told the Senate Democrats about and he’s going to announce it later today, and that is: The Senate organization committee is going to meet and pass a rule that says if you don’t show up for two consecutive days on a session day—in the state Senate, the Senate chief clerk—it’s a little procedural thing here, but—can actually have your payroll stopped from being automatically deducted—
Koch: Beautiful.
Walker: —into your checking account and instead—you still get a check, but the check has to be personally picked up and he’s instructing them—which we just loved—to lock them in their desk on the floor of the state Senate.
Koch: Now you’re not talking to any of these Democrat bastards, are you?
Walker: Ah, I—there’s one guy that’s actually voted with me on a bunch of things I called on Saturday for about 45 minutes, mainly to tell him that while I appreciate his friendship and he’s worked with us on other things, to tell him I wasn’t going to budge.
Koch: Goddamn right!
Walker: …his name is Tim Cullen—
Koch: All right, I’ll have to give that man a call.
Walker: Well, actually, in his case I wouldn’t call him and I’ll tell you why: he’s pretty reasonable but he’s not one of us…
Koch: Now who can we get to budge on this collective bargaining?
Walker: …I think the paycheck will have an impact…secondly, one of the things we’re looking at next…we’re still waiting on an opinion to see if the unions have been paying to put these guys up out of state. We think there’s at minimum an ethics violation if not an outright felony.
Koch: Well, they’re probably putting hobos in suits.
Walker: Yeah.
Koch: That’s what we do. Sometimes.
Walker: I mean paying for the senators to be put up. I know they’re paying for these guy—I mean, people can pay for protesters to come in and that’s not an ethics code, but, I mean, literally if the unions are paying the 14 senators—their food, their lodging, anything like that…[*** Important regarding his later acceptance of a Koch offer to “show him a good time.” ***]
[I was stunned. I am stunned. In the interest of expediting the release of this story, here are the juiciest bits:]
Walker: …I’ve got layoff notices ready…
Koch: Beautiful; beautiful. Gotta crush that union.
Walker: [bragging about how he doesn’t budge]…I would be willing to sit down and talk to him, the assembly Democrat leader, plus the other two Republican leaders—talk, not negotiate and listen to what they have to say if they will in turn—but I’ll only do it if all 14 of them will come back and sit down in the state assembly…legally, we believe, once they’ve gone into session, they don’t physically have to be there. If they’re actually in session for that day, and they take a recess, the 19 Senate Republicans could then go into action and they’d have quorum…so we’re double checking that. If you heard I was going to talk to them that’s the only reason why. We’d only do it if they came back to the capital with all 14 of them…
Koch: Bring a baseball bat. That’s what I’d do.
Walker: I have one in my office; you’d be happy with that. I have a slugger with my name on it.
Koch: Beautiful.
Walker: [union-bashing…]
Koch: Beautiful.
Walker: So this is ground zero, there’s no doubt about it. [Talks about a “great” NYT piece of “objective journalism.” Talks about how most private blue-collar workers have turned against public, unionized workers.]…So I went through and called a handful, a dozen or so lawmakers I worry about each day and said, “Everyone, we should get that story printed out and send it to anyone giving you grief.”
Koch: Goddamn right! We, uh, we sent, uh, Andrew Breitbart down there.
Walker:Yeah.
Koch: Yeah.
Walker: Good stuff.
Koch: He’s our man, you know.
Walker: [blah about his press conferences, attacking Obama, and all the great press he’s getting.] Brian [Sadoval], the new Governor of Nevada, called me the last night he said—he was out in the Lincoln Day Circuit in the last two weekends and he was kidding me, he said, “Scott, don’t come to Nevada because I’d be afraid you beat me running for governor.” That’s all they want to talk about is what are you doing to help the governor of Wisconsin. I talk to Kasich every day—John’s gotta stand firm in Ohio. I think we could do the same thing with Vic Scott in Florida. I think, uh, Snyder—if he got a little more support—probably could do that in Michigan. You start going down the list there’s a lot of us new governors that got elected to do something big.
Koch: You’re the first domino.
Walker: Yep. This is our moment.
Koch: Now what else could we do for you down there?
Walker: Well the biggest thing would be—and your guy on the ground [Americans For Prosperity president Tim Phillips] is probably seeing this [stuff about all the people protesting, and some of them flip him off].
[Abrupt end of first recording, and start of second.]
Walker: [Bullshit about doing the right thing and getting flipped off by “union bulls,” and the decreasing number of protesters. Or some such.]
Koch: We’ll back you any way we can. What we were thinking about the crowd was, uh, was planting some troublemakers.
Walker: You know, well, the only problem with that —because we thought about that. The problem—the, my only gut reaction to that is right now the lawmakers I’ve talked to have just completely had it with them, the public is not really fond of this…[explains that planting troublemakers may not work.] My only fear would be if there’s a ruckus caused is that maybe the governor has to settle to solve all these problems…[something about ’60s liberals.]…Let ‘em protest all they want…Sooner or later the media stops finding it interesting.
Koch: Well, not the liberal bastards on MSNBC.
Walker: Oh yeah, but who watches that? I went on “Morning Joe” this morning. I like it because I just like being combative with those guys, but, uh. You know they’re off the deep end.
Koch: Joe—Joe’s a good guy. He’s one of us.
Walker: Yeah, he’s all right. He was fair to me…[bashes NY Senator Chuck Schumer, who was also on the program.]
Koch: Beautiful; beautiful. You gotta love that Mika Brzezinski; she’s a real piece of ass.
Walker: Oh yeah. [story about when he hung out with human pig Jim Sensenbrenner at some D.C. function and he was sitting next to Brzezinski and her father, and their guest was David Axelrod. He introduced himself.]
Koch: That son of a bitch!
Walker: Yeah no kidding huh?…
Koch: Well, good; good. Good catching up with ya’.
Walker: This is an exciting time [blah, blah, blah, Super Bowl reference followed by an odd story of pulling out a picture of Ronald Reagan and explaining to his staff the plan to crush the union the same way Reagan fired the air traffic controllers]…that was the first crack in the Berlin Wall because the Communists then knew Reagan wasn’t a pushover. [Blah, blah, blah. He’s exactly like Reagan. Won’t shut up about how awesome he is.]
Koch: [Laughs] Well, I tell you what, Scott: once you crush these bastards I’ll fly you out to Cali and really show you a good time.
Walker: All right, that would be outstanding. [*** Ethical violation much? ***] Thanks for all the support…it’s all about getting our freedoms back…
Koch: Absolutely. And, you know, we have a little bit of a vested interest as well. [Laughs]
Walker: [Blah] Thanks a million!
Koch: Bye-bye!

Walker: Bye.

When the Going Gets Tough, the Ukrainians Gets Weird

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An-124 Ruslan (NATO Designation: Condor)

Yes, it appears that Antotov is serious about bidding on the KC-X tanker contract, and they have just asked for a 60-day freeze on the competition so that they can get their bid together.

These folks haven’t even decided what plane to submit, with reports of their considering, “three potential offers based on the An-124-KC and two new aircraft designs – the An-122-KC and An-112-KC.”

The AN-124 is clearly too big for the competition, it’s bigger than the C-5, and the competition is for a medium tanker, the KC-10 is the big boy, and according to the Wiki, the An-122 appears to be a 2 engined variant of the of the Ruslan, and lord knows what the AN-112 is.

On the plus side of the bid, Russia’s mega transport does appear to have much better rough field capabilities than the competition, both because of the multi axle main and nose gear, and because its high wing is makes engines less likely to suck debris off an unprepared strip.

Still, this is so silly as to be surreal.

I think that someone, possibly on the side of their US partner might be playing both ends against the middle, and the money is heading to Lichtenstein.

Sanity in the Ukraine

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Ukraine is formally withdrawing its application to join NATO. It’s parliament passed a law making joining the organization illegal.

Ukraine’s aspirations, much like Georgia’s were clearly motivated more by hostility towards Russia than about the real needs of the Ukrainian people, and this should serve to reduce tensions in the region.

Of course, what can be made through legislation can be unmade through legislation, but at the very least, it should reduce the drama from the Black Sea region for a while.

And NATO Support and $14.95 Will Get You a New Trenta Size Starbucks Skinny Half Caf White Chocolate Cappuccino

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Russia has cut a deal with the government in the Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia to build a military base, and NATO has condemned the action:

Russia has signed a deal to build a military base in the rebel Georgian territory of Abkhazia. NATO says the deal violates an existing agreement and has urged Moscow to reverse the decision.

Russia has signed a deal to set up a military base in the Georgian break-away region of Abkhazia. The agreement, which will give Russia a permanent presence in the region on the Black Sea, has been declared invalid by NATO.

Officials from the region said the base will provide a home to at least 3,000 Russian land troops which are already stationed in Abkhazia. As it stands, the deal would enable Russia to station personnel in Abkhazia for a period of at least 49 years.

I would like to see a resolution of these issues in Georgia, but so long as you have the increasingly unstable and anti-democratic Saakashvili in charge, and the west continues to support him, because, I guess he went to western schools, and speaks English well, we won’t.

I Spoke too Soon

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The Ukrainian Supreme Court has temporarily suspended the election results for the Presidential election, so the official declaration of Viktor Yanukovich’s victory is on hold.

It has not suspended the inauguration, so it may largely be a formality, but my guess is that they will give a few days for Yulia Tymoshenko to present evidence.

I don’t expect much in the way of vote fraud to be found, and certainly not enough to change the results, but my record on predictions is a bit spotty.

I Have Neglected the Ukraine

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They had elections for President, and in the first round, current President Viktor Yushchenko was completely blown out, and the top vote getters, Russian friend Viktor Yanukovych, and current Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko went to a runoff.

Well, Yanukovych won the election, though Timoshenko is still contesting the election.

As a result, investors are avoiding a Ukrainian debt issue like the plague as a result, because:

  • Investors don’t like an unstable government, and because they prospect of Timoshenko remaining in government unsettles them because:
  • She has a reputation for obstructionism that makes John Boehner look like Doctor Ruth The cabinet that she has nominally been in in charge of has been unable to agree on budget cuts that the bond investors are demanding.

It’s a mess.

Moscow Russians Working on a Next Generation Bomber in 2025-2030 Time Frame

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Unlike some of the other Russian programs (*cough* PAK-FA *cough*) which seem to have overly aggressive time frames, this program has a realistic time frame, and the technical requirements are rather modest (paid subscription required) :

“At the end of the first stage, we selected four options [for the future bomber] out of an initial 47 for further consideration and analysis,” [head of the Special Aircraft Division, Alexander] Bobryshev said during a Dec. 23 meeting with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Bobryshev committed to the design being completed in 2011-12, with development of the aircraft to be finished by 2017. Funding needs were not disclosed.

[Strategic aviation commander Maj. Gen. Anatoly] Zhikharev says the new bomber will be low-observable, using advanced materials and other technologies. However, he notes that it cannot be made “invisible,” signaling Russia will not pursue the all-aspect, multi-signature stealth performance the U.S. is considering for its next-generation bomber project.

Part of this is, I think, the understanding that if they were to go up against a highly integrated ground bases air defense system, it would be based on their technology, where they would have intimate knowledge of the technology and capabilities, as NATO relies more heavily on aircraft for this sort of defense.

Additionally, they are no doubt aware how expensive the full up stealth is, and they know how improvements in processing and the combination of signals from various sensors have the promise of negating stealth to a significant degree in the next few years.

Also, the Russians do not have the need for the extremely long range power projection capabilities that the US does. They are primarily concerned about their “near abroad”, basically former Soviet Republics and Warsaw Pact nations, with a special focus on Georgia and Ukraine, where NATO membership is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Bush-Cheney Were Even Crazier Than We Imagined

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During the Russian-Georgian war in 2008, Bush and His Evil Minions™ considered military strikes against Russia:

As Russian tanks rumbled into Georgia in 2008, a post-Cold War turning point was at hand.

George W. Bush’s national security team considered launching air strikes to halt the invasion. …………

…………

Thus we learn that “several senior White House staffers” urged “at least some consideration of limited military options,” such as bombing the mountain tunnel that served as Russia’s main supply line.

What part of the phrase, “Russia has around 10,000 nuclear warheads in its arsenal,” didn’t these guys get?

Great googly moogly!

What Took Them So Long

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So, the EU has investigated the Russia-Georgia war, and concluded that Georgia started the war, and that Russia’s reaction was excessive.

The former ruling is much more significant than the latter, since the international community always wants everything to end at the old borders.

Look at the hand wringing over the demise of the Tamil Tigers.

Still, this took them over a year?

I knew this in within 24 hours of the war having started: the Georgians shelled civilians, and the Russians knew what was planned, and when it was coming, and reacted with overwhelming force.

An-70 Moves Forward

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Click images for full size

It looks like the on-again off-again An-70 transport project is back on, with Russia and the Ukraine signing agreement to restore development to the aircraft. (see also here)

Given the problems with that Airbus A400m, being at least 2 years late, 12 tons (!) overweight, and short on promised range and cargo as a result of these problems, the AN-70 has an opening here.

They both fly at the same speed, but that Antonov flies a bit further with a 20 ton payload 6,600 km as versus 6390 km, has a bigger max payload, 47 metric tons as vs 38 metric tons, which would seem make it very competitive, though its contra-rotating props are doubtless louder, and hence more of an issue for people living near their bases in western nations.

This is Wicked Stupid

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It looks like the US Military is going to resume training the Georgian army.

Considering the fact that President Mikheil Saakashvili is a truly delusional and despotic nutcase who is spoiling for another war with Russia, this is a very bad idea on that level, but it’s also clear that the Georgian state security apparatus has been completely penetrated by the Russian intelligence service that they knew to the minute, if not the second, when the Georgians were going to invade South Ossetia.

But we need bodies for Afghanistan, so we’re training them.

Russia Sends Warning of Georgia

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Considering the heated rhetoric on this issue, this is pretty mild.

What they are saying is that they will cut military and diplomatic ties with nations that sell Russian built or Russian designed weapons to Georgia.

All in all, this a remarkably narrowly drawn statement, that it will not be offering support or spares to nations that ship Russian, and one would assume Soviet, weapons to Georgia.

Compared to earlier statements made where various government officials appeared to insult each other over parentage and penis size, it’s a major step forward.

Card Check Killed in Senate

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Most of the rest of the reforms remain intact, but the card check provision has been removed.

What remains is the right of unions to campaign on company property, a faster election cycle, which gives less time for employers to strong arm and illegally fire employees, making mandatory anti-union meetings illegal, and binding arbitration.

Truth be told, I expect it to be watered down further, because the Barack Obama administration has been studiously silent on this measure, throwing yet another key constituency, unions, under the bus as they have with labor.

This bill will not progress with meaningful reform without White House support, and none is forthcoming.

Massive Rally in Ukraine Triggers Yuschenko Backdown on Elections

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I’m not sure how much of this is gamesmanship and how much is unrest over an economy falling at a double digit rate, but Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has now said that he is open to new elections, which is a big walk back, seeing as how he is at 3% in the former Soviet Republic.

Honestly, Ukraine needs to develop a slightly less adversarial relationship with Russia, even if they are not fond of Russians themselves, a stance which the more pragmatic (and less batsh^% insane) Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, Yushchenko’s chief rival understands while he does not.

Kyrgyzstan Makes it Official

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The Kyrgyz ruling party voted to close the airbases.

It comes down to three things:

  • The Kyrgyz wanted a better deal.
  • The initial deal mostly gave money to family the now overthrown despot, and the Kyrgyz were honked off by that.
  • A Kyrgyz citizen was shot on base by a US soldier, and no meaning action was taken by US authorities against the soldier, inflaming local anger.

This, along with Russia giving them a better offer, was more than enough for them to kick us out of their airbase.

A Challenge to NATO?

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Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have agreed to form a joint quick reaction force with a, “joint command and be based permanently on Russian territory.”

It does not appear to be a particularly large force, it looks like perhaps a brigade, but it does imply an upgrade to the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which appears to be an attempt at a counterweight to NATO.

Kyrgyzstan To Close US Airbase

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President Kurmanbek Bakiyev of Kyrgyzstan Kjust announced his intention to close the Manas air base at a press conference with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

He is claiming that the US is not paying enough, and my guess is that the Russian aid also announced influenced him:

Russia, meanwhile, was ready to pay. The Kyrgyz president collected pledges of a $2-billion discounted loan and a $150-million grant. The Russian government also agreed to cancel Kyrgyzstan’s $180-million debt and to build a hydroelectric power plant.

I think that Russia does not want Afghanistan to fall back into the Taliban’s hands, but I also think that they see the bases in former Warsaw Pact and FSU nations as being a deliberate attempt to create a “ring of steel” in order to contain Russia.

I think that there are elements in the US military, and elements in the past administration (Cheney, Rice, etc.) who have been rather strong supporters of the “ring of steel” concept, so it’s not like they are paranoid for nothing.

From a tactical perspective, the loss of Manas is crushing, as it will, leave Pakistan as the only supply route available.

Gas Deal Reported

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I hope that this one is not a false alarm

Under the reported deal, Ukraine will pay 20 percent less than the European price for this year. This means a substantial increase for Ukraine in the first quarter but the price could fall significantly later in the year as gas prices are expected to drop.

It does seem to be a fair deal to both sides….Which Is why I’m wondering when it will fall apart.

Also, Slovakia has put off restarting is Soviet era nuke plant.

They had declared an emergency because of the gas crisis, and were talking about restarting it.