Category: Former Soviet Union

What is Going on in Georgia

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I knew that Russia decimated the Georgian army, but I had no clue as to how totally completely they owned them:

It soon became clear that the six-point deal not only failed to slow the Russian advance, but it also allowed Russia to claim that it could push deeper into Georgia as part of so-called additional security measures it was granted in the agreement. Mr. Sarkozy, according to a senior Georgian official who witnessed the negotiations, also failed to persuade the Russians to agree to any time limit on their military action.

So the Georgians have forsworn the use of force to get back the provinces, Russia has the right, for an indeterminate amount of time, to stay in Georgian territory, and take “additional security measures.”

Meanwhile, the Russians are telling George W. Bush and the Georgians to pound sand on the autonomous regions:

Medvedev said he would support the independence aspirations of South Ossetians and Abkhazians in accordance with the United Nations Charter, international conventions of 1966 and the Helsinki Act on Security and Cooperation in European.

“You have been defending your land, and the right is on your side,” Medvedev said at a meeting with leaders of the two breakaway regions.

“Russia’s position is unchanged: we will support any decisions taken by the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in accordance with the UN Charter,” he said, adding that “not only do we support but we will guarantee them.”

Georgia is going to be smaller in a few years.

More Confusion, and Stupidity On Georgia

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First, I think that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili realizes that he’s lost, and that his support is now crumbling. At least that’s my explanation for his increasingly erratic rhetoric, where he went on CNN, and talking about fighting to the “last drop of blood”.

He gambled, and he lost, and at best all he can hope for is that he manages to hold out until the next elections.

This is also explains why he claims that the US will take control of Georgian ports, a claim what was promptly refuted by the Pentagon, “We are not looking to, nor do we need to, take control of any air or sea ports to conduct this mission,” said Geoff Morrell, Pentagon spokesman. (emphasis mine)

It’s also why he said that the humanitarian aid was a part of a greater military involvement:

But while Mr. Bush said the United States “stands with the democratically elected government of Georgia and insists that its sovereignty and territorial integrity be respected,” his remarks contained no hint of an American military role in Georgia, other than providing humanitarian assistance.

However, minutes after Mr. Bush’s comments, President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia characterized the import of the American aid as “definitely an American military presence” and called it a “turning point.”

Needless to say, Bush’s statements that he wanted to convey, “unwavering support for Georgia’s democratic government,” are not helping the situation.

Putin is the last person on earth that I would want to bluff if he knew it was a bluff, and he knows that Bush’s bravado is just a bluff.

Needless to say, the only person desperate enough, or stupid enough to believe this is Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

There is a Cease Fire in Georgia, Sort of

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It looks like there has been a cease fire accord signed between the Russians and the Georgians.

As to the net result of the accord, the Washington Post, being the paper that Bushies leak to when they want credibility (Moonie Times does not cut it), strongly suggests that Moscow capitulated to Western demands, because they were concerned about their role in international bodies.

I think that the reporting of the Los Angeles Times and the The Guardian, which see this as a Georgian capitulation.

The Georgian army has largely disintegrated, and the conditions of the terms are highly favorable to Moscow:

The key demands are that the Georgian leader pledges, in an agreement that is signed and legally binding, to abjure all use of force to resolve Georgia’s territorial disputes with the two breakaway pro-Russian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; and that Georgian forces withdraw entirely from South Ossetia and are no longer part of the joint “peacekeeping” contingent there with Russian and local Ossetian forces.

(emphasis mine)

The Russians are also maintaining their right to “additional security measures” until foreign monitors were in place.

This would support the reports that the Russians are still advancing (see also here, here, here, and here), and that the Russians had destroyed Georgian naval vessels.

Some of the reports had a convoy heading from Gori to Tbilisi, but this was denied by the Russian military, who said that they were, “Demilitarizing the area near the South Ossetia border so that Georgia could not launch new attacks.”

I don’t see the Russians entering Tbilisi, though I could see them setting up artillery in range of the city as a means of intimidation.

We are also getting reports of burining and looting in areas under Russian control.

It appears that the Russians are not doing this, but that Ossetian militias are, and the Russians are taking no action, to stop them.

Bad Idea, Barack

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Woah, this is a full metal pander:

Obama appeared to agree, saying, ‘I have consistently called for deepening relations between Georgia and trans-Atlantic institutions, including a Membership Action Plan for NATO, and we must continue to press for that deeper relationship.’

It was this sort of statement that encouraged Georgia to get its war on and level a city full of women and children.

Additionally, it makes him look weak, because it makes him look like he is triangulating and that McCain is taking the lead on foreign policy.

Georgia Daily Update

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First, let’s go meta and explain why no nation on earth should trust Bush and His Evil Minions™ in a diplomatic context:

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has also been noticeably absent on the diplomatic scene, having failed to interrupt her holidays to fly to Tbilisi in support of the Georgian government.

This is actually easily understood. She’s an academic, which means never allow reality to alter your view of the world, and never cut a vacation short.

In any case, the Russians have officially declared an end to military operations, though there is clearly some combat still going on.

Hopefully, it will die down in the next few days.

Of interest is the fact that Georgia must remove its troops from the area and sign a binding renunciation of force against both South Ossetia and Abhkazia.

If they don’t get that, then the Russians are saying, “no deal”, and if they do get that, then Saakashvili is done as a political force in Georgia.

I think that he’s done in any case.

Interestingly enough, I see a pattern of tribalism in this description of Georgian Mikheil Saakashvili’s comeuppance.

Specifically, it appears that much of his credibility in terms of the actions that he has taken, and the west’s view of him, come from the fact that he got his law degree at the George Washington University Law School, and when he purged the civil service and universities, he replaced them with other western trained personnel.

When I look at coverage he has received, and for that matter the coverage of other leaders of dubious records, it appears that those old school ties make a very big difference as to who the press covers what they do, particularly when it is less than savory.

Economics Update

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The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly fell in June, though I wonder how much of that will go away now that the dollar is about 6% stronger than it was that month.

I just wonder when people are going to start noticing that the Fed is printing money like a SOB with it’s aid to the financial industry.

Today’s bit of additional money comes to $25 billion with their financial toxic waste for cash exchange program, better known as the, “discount window borrowing facility”.

The dollar is down a bit today, but I see it as profit taking, as opposed to the realization that we in the US print more money than toilet paper though.

In energy, oil is down, even though BP closed its Georgia pipeline as a precaution.

Gasoline is down tow, by about $0.30 from peak.

Real estate, on the other hand, is beginning to look grim, with people finally noticing that prime mortgages are defaulting at higher rates too.

It explains why JP Morgan lost $1.5 billion on mortgage backed securities in July.

Getting Georgia’s War On

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First, read Getting Georgia’s War On in The Nation, if just for the revelation that that Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze made an “investment call” to bank managers and analysts.

The original offensive had been planned for some time.

Additionally, it appears that Russia was the first to call a Security Council meeting, but their proposal, which called for both sides to , “renounce the use of force”, was rejected by Georgia, the US, and the UK.

I think that the best historical analogy out there is care of Attaturk:

1836 to 1848
Georgia = Mexico
Russia = The United States
South Ossetia = Texas

It really is clear that the Ossetians hate the Georgians, and that the desire for independence is very real, though the ability is only because of Russian support.

Meanwhile, Russia is rolling east from South Ossetia, and west from Abkhazia, and they are demanding the disarming of troops along both borders.

Again, this is calling on the the Kosovo precedent, and I think is a sign that one of the goals of the Russians is the elimination of the Georgian army as a meaningful force.

Certainly their capture Georgia’s Senaki City and enterry into Zugdidi Town, roughly 40km in Georgia from the Abkhazian border seems to confirm this.

On the bright side, Dmitry Medvedev has stated that the military operation in South Ossetia is nearly over, which should indicate a reduction of optempo shortly.

You can read a summary of official Russian losses, and they seem very light, though the loss of the Tu-22, by which I assume they mean Tu-22M Backfire, not the earlier Blinder, has to to hurt.

Jed Lewison notes that top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, is a paid lobbyist for a foreign government, the Republic of Georgia, he claims not to lobby for them any more, but his firm still gets fees from them, and that much of his lobbying were his highly successful efforts to turn McCain into an unthinking Georgia evangelist, though given McCain’s Russo-phobia, it probably took less than a golf game to do that.

Economics Update

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Well, we are now seeing reports that the FDIC is going to have to raise premiums to cover losses from bank failures.

They should have started last year.

Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is showing signs of significant inflation, with China’s wholesale prices rising 10% year over year in July.

The problem here is that the obvious solution, the central bank raising interest rates, will server to further weaken the dollar, which will drive their exports down….Catch 22.

Meanwhile, it appears that Morgan Stanley has problems, because Moody’s just cuts its credit rating to A1 from Aa3 because of losses in the mortgage market.

Interestingly enough, even though Georgia and Russia are in something very close to a war, and the Georgian pipeline is a crucial link for Europe, oil is down, largely on the Iranians agreeing to a new round of negotiations on their Uranium enrichment program.

Gasoline is down again, for the 25th day in a row.

The dollar rose today, probably as a result of concerns about the conflict between Georgia and Russia, which tends to send money fleeing to the relative safety of the US dollar.

And in the, “Funnier if it weren’t so true” department:

Georgia on my Mind

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It appears that Georgia has “pulled out” of South Ossetia, though I think that any realistic assessment would say that the Georgian army was expelled from the breakaway province by the Russians.

In the Security council, it’s clear, for now at least, that Russia will not allow any resolution through that calls for a cease fire.

I would also note that Putin has described the Georgian assault on the capitol of South Ossetia as, “Genocide”, and it’s clear that he has his eyes on the precedent set in Kosovo, where crimes against humanity were used to justify the creation of Kosovo as an independent state.

Things are also heating up in the other break away region of Abkhazia, with Russian troops being sent there to reinforce the positions there, moving elements of its Black Sea fleet to the Abkhazian port Ochamchire, and there appears to be an assault on the Kodori Gorge, which was reconquered by Georgia in 2006.

Ukraine is saying that it may bar Russian ships that have participated in this operation from their ports for the duration of hostilities.

There are reports of a Russian Blockade of Georgia, which has been denied by the Russians…sort of:

Russian warships are not planning to block shipments of oil from Georgia’s Black Sea port of Poti, but reserve the right to search ships coming to and from it, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said on Sunday.

Also, it appears that the Russian navy sank a Georgian missile boat.

Honestly, the only sympathy I have for the Georgians is the very real possibility that Mikheil Saakashvili was led on by the US, much in the manner that Saddam Hussein was before the first Gulf War, because it is clear to me, and Thomas de Waal writing in the Guardian agrees, that this was largely the direct result of actions by Saakashvili

Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili seems to care less about these people than about asserting that they live in Georgian territory. Otherwise he would not on the night of 7-8 August have launched a massive artillery assault on the town of Tskhinvali, which has no purely military targets and whose residents, the Georgians say, lest we forget, are their own citizens. This is a blatant breach of international humanitarian law.

Moscow cares as little about the Ossetians as it does the Georgians it is bombing, regarding South Ossetia as a pawn in its bid to bring Georgia and its neighbours back into a Russian sphere of influence. Ordinary South Ossetians have also been cursed by a criminalised leadership which would long ago have lost power had they not been the rallying point for defence against Georgia.

I think that it’s clear that Georgian calls for a cease fire will fall on deaf ears in Russia for a while, and we have a report that Russia is demanding the removal of Saakashvili, the article, in classic WaPo form describes him as having been democratically elected, but ignores the election fraud in the last election, along with brutality against the opposition and the destruction of an opposition TV station.

It also appears that the Russians are advancing past the borders of Ossetia. They appear to be advancing on the Georgian city of Gori.

Georgia Shells South Ossetian Capitol, Escalation Ensues

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I’m not sure why Georgia chose this time to start shelling South Ossetian capital of Tskhinval, but this sort of behavior has elicited the expected Russian response, and they have started sending additional “peacekeepers” to the region.

The Guardian has an interesting analysis, if just because it avoids the common wisdom available on a Google News search that somehow the Georgians shelling a city full of women and children is Russian aggression.

Their analysis is that this was a well planned offensive, and that they hoped to catch the Russians off balance, with Putin in Beijing for the Olympics, and it now appears that they were wrong:

Observers had little doubt that the operation to take South Ossetia back under Georgian control bore the hallmarks of a planned military offensive.

It was not the result of a ceasefire that had broken down the night before – it was more a fulfilment of the promise the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, had made to recapture lost national territory, and with it a measure of nationalist pride.

((emphasis mine)

It appears that the US has been aggressively supporting and training the Georgian army for some time, and this may have contributed to Saakashvili’s belief that he could get away with it.

I’m wondering if this isn’t a screw up, and that Bush and His Evil Minions™, particularly Cheney, might have been looking for something like this just before the election, for electoral benefit, but their boy in Tbilisi pulled the trigger too early.

Russia-Belarus Alliance Approaching Georgian Breakaway Provinces

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A spokesman for the so called “Union State” alliance, is saying that Transdnestr, Abkhazia and South Ossetia might be granted some sort of observer status, possibly followed by full membership.

Needless to say, this would lead to secession from Georgia, and very likely a some sort of hostilities.

This kind of crap is going on because first Bill Clinton, and then George W. Bush ignored commitments to limit the westward expansion of NATO to the reunification of Germany, and so have created what is legitimately viewed by the Russians as a ring of steel around them, complete with a ballistic missile defense system that is better positioned against them than it is against the Iranians.

I don’t think it’s going to happen, but the expansion of NATO really needs to be stopped.

Russia Protests Outside Military Aid to Georgia

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The back story is in 2002, the US started suppling military aid to Georgia to fight “al Queida backed forces”, but these forces never existed, and the aid continues.

The Russians, quite reasonably, see this as a provocation directed at them. (see here and here)

The arming of Georgia, like the westward expansion of NATO, is seen by the Russian government as a real threat to their own security, particularly given the guarantees made in the early 1990s that there would be no westward expansion of NATO.

As I’ve said before, I think that part of this agenda is a desire by Republicans to recreate the Slavic menace for political advantage.

Georgia-Russia War of Words Reaches Crescendo

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There are now statements from representatives in the breakaway Georgian province of Abkhazia that Russia will be taking over full control of military operations, and the Georgian foreign minister is claiming that they are near to war with Russia.

Again, let me say that much of this* is a direct result of NATO’s expansion eastward, in violation of agreements, which has fed Russia’s long tradition of xenophobia and paranoia, and hence has led to these actions.

*Though there is an aspect of Russia attempting to create a sphere of influence in the area too.

Georgia on My Mind

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Nope, we’re not talking about the southern state, but the birthplace of Josef Stalin.

We are having problems. It appears that NATO is warning Russia not to interfere in Georgia, and Russia is warning NATO not to interfere in Georgia.

Fundamentally, this is an outgrowth of NATO’s disastrous policy of expansion, which was driven by post Berlin Wall euphoria and the lobbying of the various national defense industries, who saw a move to NATO as being a way to sell some expensive toys to the former Warsaw Pact nations.

Before the fall of the USSR, one of the conditions that Russia placed on the reunification of Germany was that NATO expand no further eastward. The fact that it has, and that the countries added no use for NATO but as a sword against Russia, contributes to the current bellicose and paranoid nature of Russian foreign relations.

Russia and Ukraine Plan to Restart An-124 Production.

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I think that it is cool.

For most of the forces out there, what they need is strategic airlift capability, not tactical, and honestly, the An-124 pretty much owns the field, and will for the foreseeable future, as the only potential competitor in terms of size, the A-380 is far more restricted in terms of airports, if just because with its low wing, it will Hoover debris off an austere strip.

As the article notes, Anotov has some real problems, noting the fact that the An-70, which is a great tactical airlifter*, is languishing, and wondering if Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation might be looking at a corporate takeover.

*Once you replace the avionics with western equivalents, and allow one of the large western turbine manufacturers to license produce with higher quality materials to improve reliability.

Bush Gets Missiles at NATO Conference

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Well, it appears that Bush has managed to browbeat the Europeans into accepting an ABM installation spread across Poland and the Czech Republic, despite the fact that he pissed them off of by publicly lobbying for the admission of Georgia and the Ukraine to NATO, despite the fact that there had been a previous agreement not to do so.

The marvelously named Duck of Minerva makes the point that Bush was talking out of both sides of his mouth, on the one hand claiming that the missile shield is not intended to be used against Russia, and on the other claiming that the membership of Georgia and the Ukraine, “would send a signal throughout the region that these two nations are, and will remain, sovereign and independent states.”

If they need membership to be protected against Russia, then who do they need protection against?

The answer is that this is a deliberate attempt to antagonize Russia, because it is believed to play well for Republicans. Lynne Cheney has been lobbying for recreating what was the Soviet threat for political advantage since the early 1990s.

It’s all the fault of those damn Eskimos!!!

Of course, once again, the Greeks appear to be compensating for what must be the smallest penises in Europe, vetoing Macedonia’s entry into NATO.

Let’s get this clear:

  • Macedonia was never a part of Greece.
  • Alexander the Great was not a Greek.
  • The people of what was then Macedonia did not speak Greek, except for the aristocracy, who were educated in Greek, and might have spoken Greek with more facility than Macedonian.
  • Greece was conquered by Macedonia, by Phillip of Macedon, and then Alexander took over the known world.

Any questions?

Israeli Phased Array AEW Aircraft

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This is significant, because we will be seeing many smaller nations acquiring C3I capabilities that rival those of the USAF and USN on much smaller platforms.

We are seeing technological developments equivalent to those that have occurred in computing, which allow for weapons design and development without having a building full of vacuum tubes.

Israel gets second AEW Gulfstream-29/05/2007-Flight International

The Israeli air force’s second of four Gulfstream G550 business jets to be modified for use as an airborne early warning aircraft has arrived at Ben-Gurion international airport in Tel Aviv following a mid-May ferry flight from Savannah, Georgia via Edinburgh, Scotland.

Israel Aerospace Industries’ Elta Systems subsidiary will now install a Phalcon-derivative conformal AEW array, with the aircraft to join a first example (right) now in flight test. The Israeli air force’s future AEW fleet will join its three G550s already configured for signals intelligence duties, with these being prepared for operational service. Singapore also recently confirmed its selection of four G550-based AEW aircraft, with these to be in service by 2010.

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