Category: Insurance

Economics Update

Scary Pic of the Day: Upcoming Mortgage Resets Courtesy of Dr. Housingbubble

ADP employment services has released its monthly report, and job cuts are way up with 697,000 jobs lost in February as compared to 614,000 jobs lost in January.

Note that the initial January figure was only 522,000, the the final February figures may very look even worse.

We also have the Institute for Supply Management February non-manufacturing numbers, and they are down from January’s already anemic figures, and the Federal Reserve’s business survey reporting “weaker conditions or declines” in 10 of the 12 regions.

In China, however, the purchasing managers’ index rose in February, to 49, which still shows contraction, but only barely, as 50 is neutral.

In real estate, we have mortgage demand falling last week, largely because borrowers are waiting to see what the Obama mortgage rescue plan is.

In commercial real estate, we have a secondary indicator, with office furniture sales falling sharply.

It’s no wonder that FDIC Chair Sheila Bair is warning that its insurance fund could be insolvent by years end.

Bank failures, ignoring the biggest ones, is on a pace to close 100 banks this year, as compared to the 27 in 2008 or the 3 in 2007.

We are seeing a spike in consumer bankruptcy filings, up 29% year over year in February.

The Chinese economic news drove oil higher, and bad economic news in Japan drove the dollar up.

Not Just AIG, But the Entire Financial System

Seriously, this New York Times article on AIG, is a quick and layman accessible recounting of what went wrong there, and now that the Taxpayer is laying out another $30 to prop them up, with the approval of the ratings agencies who made this problem possible in the first place, it bears reading.

What we see is a metaphor for the entire rotten “Anglo-Saxon” system of unregulated hyper-capitalism.

AIG does not exist any more, what’s there is a simulacrum of a going business, fueled by zombie juice amounting to over $150 billion of taxpayer dollars, with the promise of more federal support, but that’s not the important part.

The important thing is are not just talking recklessness and incompetence here, we are talk real and deliberate crimes, and even now the authorities don’t have the slightest inclination to prosecute.

What took AIG down was a division that wrote credit default swaps (CDS), lots of them, and then, when they came due, they were bankrupt.

A CDS is a piece of paper that allowed them to insure all sorts of dodgy documents, but lacked the regulation, and the reserve capital requirements, of real insurance.

They wrote them because people were willing to pay them to write them, and people were willing to pay them because it allowed them to “lease” AIG’s AAA rating (see the ratings agencies linked above) for their financial instruments.

The result is that if AIG is allowed to die, instead of remaining in its undead state, everything blows up:

…. Yet the government feels it has no choice: because of A.I.G.’s dubious business practices during the housing bubble it pretty much has the world’s financial system by the throat.

If we let A.I.G. fail, said Seamus P. McMahon, a banking expert at Booz & Company, other institutions, including pension funds and American and European banks “will face their own capital and liquidity crisis, and we could have a domino effect.” A bailout of A.I.G. is really a bailout of its trading partners — which essentially constitutes the entire Western banking system.

I don’t doubt this bit of conventional wisdom; after the calamity that followed the fall of Lehman Brothers, which was far less enmeshed in the global financial system than A.I.G., who would dare allow the world’s biggest insurer to fail? Who would want to take that risk? But that doesn’t mean we should feel resigned about what is happening at A.I.G. In fact, we should be furious. More than even Citi or Merrill, A.I.G. is ground zero for the practices that led the financial system to ruin.

“They were the worst of them all,” said Frank Partnoy, a law professor at the University of San Diego and a derivatives expert. Mr. Vickrey of Gradient Analytics said, “It was extreme hubris, fueled by greed.” Other firms used many of the same shady techniques as A.I.G., but none did them on such a broad scale and with such utter recklessness. And yet — and this is the part that should make your blood boil — the company is being kept alive precisely because it behaved so badly.

They fail because if AIG fails, then their CDS contracts are worthless, and they have to account for their assets at their actual value, and overnight they become insolvent.

So, AIG is Sheriff Bart from Blazing Saddles, holding the gun to his own head, saying, “Hold it! Next man makes a move, the n***** gets it!”

Of course, this isn’t criminality (though it should be), this is Republican economics, privatizing the profits while socializing the losses.

The criminality is further down in the article:

….A.I.G. didn’t specialize in pooling subprime mortgages into securities. Instead, it sold credit-default swaps.

….But it also saw the fees as risk-free money; surely it would never have to actually pay up. Like everyone else on Wall Street, A.I.G. operated on the belief that the underlying assets — housing — could only go up in price.

That foolhardy belief, in turn, led A.I.G. to commit several other stupid mistakes. When a company insures against, say, floods or earthquakes, it has to put money in reserve in case a flood happens. That’s why, as a rule, insurance companies are usually overcapitalized, with low debt ratios. But because credit-default swaps were not regulated, and were not even categorized as a traditional insurance product, A.I.G. didn’t have to put anything aside for losses. And it didn’t. Its leverage was more akin to an investment bank than an insurance company. So when housing prices started falling, and losses started piling up, it had no way to pay them off. Not understanding the real risk, the company grievously mispriced it.

(emphasis mine)

So they sold insurance, and never had any intention on paying off, because if they had, and remember that AIG is (was) at its core an insurance company, even absent regulatory demands, they would have put aside something in the way of capital reserves.

This is the same as selling phony stocks. AIG, or more at least its everyone in a position of responsibility in its financial practices unit in London, where the swaps were written and sold, and everyone involved in supervising these activities, up to and including the CEO, and probably the board of directors, knowingly sold a fraudulent product.

Economics Update

Well, we have another Asian economy cratering in Q4 of 2008, with Taiwan’s GDP shrinking at an 8.36 annual rate. Unsurprisingly, they are now predicting a contraction for 2009.

This is “post Berlin Wall coming down shock-treatment elderly begging in streets” numbers.

In the US, producer prices posted a large gain, 0.8%, or about a 9½% inflation rate. I’m not certain if this is good or bad news, as the concern right now is deflation, but the impetus for the jump seems to be massive cash infusions from the Fed and the Treasury, which implies that we may be tiptoeing toward Zimbabwe.

Still, the jobless report was brutal, with initial claims remaining at 627,000, and continuing claims jumping to 4.99 million, the highest number ever.

I wouldn’t expect manufacturing or building to be a part of a recovery any time soon though, as the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey hit a record low, as did the Architecture Billings Index (ABI).

Note that the ABI typically presages construction activity 9-12 months ahead.

Additionally, I think that we are near seeing some of the non AIG insurance giants failing, with the first indicator being that Prudential Financial Inc. being excluded from the Federal Reserve’s commercial paper program, because Fitch Ratings downgraded them.

Note that Prudential Financial Inc. is the parent of Prudential Insurance, and that the insurance division can still use the “Commercial Paper Funding Facility,” for a while, at least.

The dollar fell a bit today, largely on reduced concerns about the smaller nations in the Euro zone going completely broke.

In energy, oil rose, though it is still well below $40/bbl, because of a surprise drop in inventory.

Economics Update

Well, I guess the lede is that the Federal Reserve is cutting its 2009 economic forecast….Reality has a way of doing that.

Real estate is ugly today, with housing starts and applications for building permits falling to record lows, which is not surprising as it’s clear that there is a significant overhang in inventory.

That overhang in inventory is why builder sentiment is at the staggering number 9, with 50 being neutral.

It’s not pessimism, it’s sanity.

We did get another jump in mortgage applications, but that’s just a refi surge when the numbers go below 5%.

We also saw a record slide in GDP for OECD nations in Q4 of 2008.

On the brighter side, I’m not in the Ukraine, where industrial output shrank by 34.1%, which is return to the stone age type numbers.

We also have record lows from Taiwan’s central bank, which cut its benchmark rate to 1.25%.

We also have some insurance news, including our friends the monoliner bond insurers.

First, we have MBIA splitting itself. It’s separating its municipal bond insurance from its mortgage backed securities interests, which is likely a good thing in the long run, though S&P downgraded them from AA to BBB+, which, while not junk bond status, is rather too close to junk bond status for comfort.

Additionally, Moodys cut ratings mortgage insurers MGIC, Radian, Republic, and Genwort.

We are actually seeing some indications that the price drops in commodities are dropping, most notably the Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs has doubled recently, which indicates more cargo, particularly in terms of raw material.

Obama’s housing rescue plan appears to have strengthened the dollar, and driven oil up today.

Senate Passes SCHIP Expansion

One interesting thing is that ‘Phant support for the bill has plummetted, because the prior times that they voted, they knew that Bush would veto, so there was no chance of it becoming law.

The Republican Party, opposing healthcare for children since 1945.

The GOP claimed that it was about providing healthcare to the children of legal immigrants, but really, it’s another case of their opposing a program because it will work, albeit imperfectly, as it will still leave about 5 million children without health insurance.

A similar measure has already passed the house.

Things I Learned from David Frum

Basically it’s that if he makes a statement, he is at best being deceptive, and worst completely inaccurate, note my little complaint letter to Marketplace about his inaccuracies of discussions regarding European fighter aircraft.

So, I heard him on Marketplace condemning Obama’s suggestion of improved unemployment benefits, and thought, “If he hates the idea it must be a good one.”

So a trip to Google News, and then to the New York Times for the details on the proposal.

I was right, it’s pretty good:

  • Extended unemployment insurance.
  • Subsidies for employers to help laid off employees with health insurance via COBRA.
  • Medicaid for laid off employees without health plans, and hence COBRA.

These are all good things.

We Oppose the Idea Because It Will Help People and Save Money

Seriously, this is the state of ‘Phant ideology.

Lindasy, “Majikthise” Beyerstein notes that this is why Republican oppose any form of public insurance:

Mark Hayes, a Republican health policy adviser to the Senate Finance Committee, said Republicans have concerns because the government plan might have access to price controls and other tools not available to private insurers. This could lead to lower premiums in the government plan, which would cause most consumers to migrate out of the private market, he said.

Do you notice what Mark Hayes is saying.

He is saying that the government will provide a better and cheaper service, and so this will damage the private providers of under-performing products.

If the private sector works so well for keeping people insured, surely the private sector would beat the public sector….except, of course, that it doesn’t.

AIG Again

Well, it looks as if the largest welfare sponge, AIG is now dawdling on its asset sales to return to viability:

The CEO of U.S. insurer American Insurance Group, which is looking to shed assets around the globe as part of a $152 billion U.S. government rescue package, said that difficult markets may delay the sale plans, though certain units have attracted heavy interest.

The translation here is: as long as we can rely on our sugar daddy at the US treasury, we won’t sell until prices go up, and if we run short on cash, we’ll hit up the taxpayer for some more.

And they will need more taxpayer money, because they are selling insurance at rates that are clearly below cost, so as to rebuild their market share.

They don’t care that they lose money on each sale, Uncle Sugar will bail them out…Again…and Again…and Again…and Again…

Why We Need a National Health Service

This little anecdote from the New York Times:

The crisis is on display here. Starla D. Darling, 27, was pregnant when she learned that her insurance coverage was about to end. She rushed to the hospital, took a medication to induce labor and then had an emergency Caesarean section, in the hope that her Blue Cross and Blue Shield plan would pay for the delivery.

Our system is not just broken. Our system is insane.

Fundamentally Corrupt

Well, some good news for municipalities, Stnadard and Poors (S&P) has upgraded their debt significantly, which should lower their borrowing costs.

This is not a recognition of economic changes, after there is no one who is safer to loan to than they were a year ago, and the municipalities in question have seen the basic metric of credit worthiness, things like “unreserved general fund balance” and “debt per capita” have actually headed in the wrong direction.

What has happened is two things:

  • The monoliner insurance companies who used to rent their credit ratings to municipalities, at taxpayer expense, are effectively defunct.
  • People have noticed that government bonds have been routinely rated lower than commercial ones based on the same criteria, and are looking at investigations and/or regulations of the ratings agencies.

What has been going on for years is that the ratings agencies have systematically underrated state and municipal debt, because it’s how their buddies with the monoliner insurers got business.

It’s why I suggest that the current financial system may need to be amputated.

Economics Update

First, we have some developments on the other side of the pond, with the Australian Central Bank lowering its rates by 100 basis points (1%), the most since 1991, and a major Russian investment bank is calling for a 20% depreciation of the Ruble, to boost exports.

It might be a good idea, depending on how export dependent the Russian economy is. It would boost local and export oriented industries.

On more general metrics of the credit crunch, Calculated Risk’s credit crisis indicators show little progress, and the fact that the rates on Treasuries have fallen off a cliff, with people getting virtually nothing (0.05%) for 3 months T-Bills, 2.68% on 10 year notes (a near record), and 3.17% for a 30 year note (a record).

Basically, this means that investors are paying the government to hold their money safe for them.

For what it’s worth, people are not trusting anything, including much in the way of US and European sovereign debt, with the cost of swaps to insure that debt skyrocketing.

In energy, we have OPEC deferring a production cut, and so oil is now firmly below $50/bbl, and retail gasoline falling to $1.812/gal, a price I never thought that I would see again, and the 76th straight daily drop.

Meanwhile, the the dollar has weakened though there is downward pressure on the Yuan from rumors that the Chinese will actively move to push the value down to boost their economy.

Economics Update

Well, the obvious lede is the unemployment numbers, with the weekly new unemployment claims, which are a very noisy metric, and continuing claims, which are not, beinb positively ghastly.

Weekly numbers rose to 542,000, whichn is the highest since mid 1992, and well above the estimate of 502,000 and continuing unemployment claims hit 4,012,000, up 109,000, the highest level since 1982.

Therefore, it is no surprise that the index of leading economic indicators fell in October, as die the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business activity index, to an 18 year low, and the Architecture Billings Index, an indicator of future construction activity, fell to an all time low.

Meanwhile in the bond market, so many people are fleeing to US treasuries that rates have been driven to historic, and near historic lows, while the costs of insuring private bonds has returned to the stratosphere.

For what it’s worth, we have some good news for a bond insurer, specifically Ambac, which has managed to negotiate a cancellation of $3.5 billion in insurance contracts, which is obviously a serious reduction in liabilities.

In energy, oil briefly fell under $50/bbl, and retail gasoline prices seem to be heading below $2/gallon.

In currency, the dollar is mixed.

Not Enough Bullets: AIG, the Gift That Keeps on Giving Edition

AIG is paying $503 million in deferred compensation to its top employees, because it needs to, “keep valuable workers from exiting the troubled insurance giant.”

Let’s see, the company in bankrupt. It’s sucked up hundreds of billions of dollars from the federal government, and it still needs more.

Could someone please explain to me how getting a company this deep in a hole makes senior management “valuable”?

Economics Update

Let’s start with retail, where the inestimable Barry Ritholtz points us to a pretty picture on the retail collapse from the NY Times (click on image for the NY times article):

I would note that the 4 weeks before November 1 are now firmly part of the Christmas season, and the Christmas season is typically 40% of revenue, and 80% of profits.

In related news Circuit City files chapter 11, this should come as no surprise for the people who have followed this sad tale, as was predicted when they laid off senior sales staff and replaced them with clueless low wage drones while issuing large executive bonuses: (Story dated December 22, 2007)

Circuit City laid off 3,400 workers in March to replace them with lower-paid new hires. This week, it announced the approval of millions of dollars in cash incentives to retain its top talent after the departure of several key executives over the past year. Executive vice presidents could claim retention awards of $1 million each, and senior vice presidents could get $600,000, provided they stay with the company until 2011, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

If you don’t have competent sales staff, then why won’t your customers go to the Amazon and Walmart?

Karma, Neh?

In the world of mortgages, we have Fannie Mae Posting a ecord $29 billion loss for the quarter, which is actually worse than it seems, since the last quarter’s profits were largely from banking losses as tax breaks.

It will likely never see those tax breaks, because a profitable year is so far off.

Yesterday, it was monoliner Ambac, today, Moody’s cuts MBIA. No surprise….dead insurers walking.

Meanwhile, in energy, it appears that the House of Saud is actually adhering to the OPEC oil production cuts, which along with China’s announcement of a $586 billion stimulus package should drive commodities up.

The Russians are hoping that it will work, as falling oil prices seems to indicate a devaluation in the Ruble.

So far, it appears to be working, oil finished the day up $4.52/bbl….Good for them, bad for us.

In any case the Chinese stimulus package has had the effect of driving the dollar down, though I’m not sure why…I just don’t know the underlying theory.

Carnegie Taken Over by Swedish Government, to Be Sold

Finally, we have a report from Calculated Risk on credit crisis indicators:

  • Libor down (good)
  • 3 month treasury yields down (bad)
  • TED spread up a smidgen (a smidgen bad)

They also have a nice scare picture of the Federal reserve balance sheet here:

Basically, it’s how much of the sh%$pile that the Fed owns, and this is fracking terrifying.

Economics Update

Calculated Risk: Fannie Mortgage Bond Spreads Decline

Well, we have payroll services firm ADP saying that job cuts in October totaled 157,000, above the 100,000 predicted, with September numbers up too, and Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the grim reapers of the corporate world reporting that more firms are planning to cut jobs.

Meanwhile the ISM’s non-manufacturing index, an index of the service economy, fell to 44.4 the worst number recorded since the index was created in 1997.

It’s not just the US either. U.K. factory output is dropping like a stone.

In the credit crunch, while gross interest are improving, the spreads between these interest rates and treasury notes remain high.

For example, the LIBOR rate has fallen to 2.51% from 4.82% on 10/10, but the spread remains 151 basis points (1.51%) over the Fed’s target rate

Prior to the credit crunch it averaged 22 basis points.

This may be mortgage applications are down, banks are still skittish, and costs are higher.

This is a normal response by banks when you consider that you have things like the bath that Glitnir swap sellers took. They look to being left with 3¢ on the dollar.

The swaps in question are a sort of bond insurance, so it’s no surprise that the two largest, monoliners Ambac and MBIA just posted big losses.

It appears that there are expectations of more rate cuts, as the dollar is down, though paradoxically, so is crude oil….Normally, they tend to move in opposite directions.

AIG’s Finances Beginning to Raise Serious Questions

Independent analysts are smelling something fishy:

American International Group is rapidly running through $123 billion in emergency lending provided by the U.S. Federal Reserve, raising questions about how a company claiming to be solvent in September could have developed such a big hole by October. Some analysts say at least part of the shortfall must have been there all along, hidden by irregular accounting.

Do I have to quote Inspector Renault from Casablanca?

They’ve already blown through $90 billion of their $123 billion loan, and there simply are not enough posh retreats in the world to generate a burn rate that fast.

It’s less than reassuring that they still haven’t said where that money has gone.

There are stories of conflicts within the insurance giant, and people who gave warnings being shunted to the side.

Expect more of this from the Hank Paulson, “Bail out my Buddies” plan.

Economics Update

Well, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points (½%) as expected.

the Bank of China cut its rates too, for the 34d time in 6 weeks.

In response, the dollar dropped the most since 1998, (this article says since 1985) which is what is supposed to happen when you cut rates, people go elsewhere looking for higher rates of return.

Unfortunately, driving down the dollar is probably all it did. Below a certain level, the difference between the rate set and 0% (giving money away) becomes pretty immaterial, and I think that we are pretty close on this. That’s what my oft repeated phrase, “pushing on a string” means.

I would also note that the falling dollar pushed oil prices higher, which I’ll qualify, so as not to invoke the wrath of Dean Baker, since oil is dollar denominated, a falling dollar does not do anything directly, but it does effect the positions taken by traders in the oil futures market.

In any case, the monoliner insurers are back in the news, with Ambac wanting a capital infusion from the government, but MBIA saying that the money should instead go to assets that they insure. New York State Insurance Commissioner Eric Dinallo agrees with Ambac.

I think that MBIA’s proposal is a bigger bailout, since it means that they have less to pay on the sh^%pile without giving an ownership stake to the feds.

In any case, it looks like the Treasury and the FDIC are working to do MBIA’s bidding, with more signs of plans to buy bad mortgages.

BTW, here is a story to follow, the SEC is looking at tightening rules on credit rating agencies. The story I linked to has 2 ‘graphs, but when the details start coming out, this will be important.

The systemic failure of the ratings agencies is at the core of much of this problem.

Speaking of failures, the Treasury just bought $125 billion in stock in the big boys:

The report showed that the payments included $25 billion each to Citigroup Inc. (C, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC, Fortune 500) Bank of America Corp. (BAC, Fortune 500) received $15 billion andMerrill Lynch & Co. (MER, Fortune 500), which is being acquired by Bank of America, got $10 billion. Bank of New York Mellon (BK, Fortune 500) received $3 billion and State Street Corp. (STT, Fortune 500) of Boston got $2 billion.

Really about the only good news that I’ve heard today is New York GA Andrew Cuomo getting medieval on senior bank management:

NEW YORK (Reuters) – New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who negotiated executive payment clawbacks by American International Group Inc (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) as it received a taxpayer bailout, warned nine banks receiving government money on Wednesday that using the funds for bonus payments may be illegal under state law.

….

“Specifically, corporate expenditures and payments, made in the absence of fair consideration of undercapitalized firms, may well violate NY Debtor and Creditor Law 274, which deems such payments illegal fraudulent conveyances,” Cuomo’s letter said.

Obama really needs to give this guy a senior post if he’ll take it.