Category: Iraq

US Iraqi Occupation Deal Not Near Resolution

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It appears that US and Iraqi negotiators have yet to resolve significant issues involved an occupation enabling agreement, in which Bush and His Evil Minions™ have been attempting an end run on the constitutional requirement that treaties require Senate approval to create an “Iraq forever” framework.

The sticking points appear to be:

  1. The immunity of the US military from Iraqi law.
  2. The immunity of the US contractors from Iraqi law.
  3. The authority to order raids.
  4. The authority to detain suspects.

If you look at these, these are questions of basic sovereignty, and the US wants nothing to do with real power to an Iraqi governing body.

This setback is a very good thing for the US and for Iraq. Neither benefits from continuing occupation.

US Air Power as a Force for Terror, as Opposed to a Weapon Against Terror

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Tom Engelhardt makes a very convincing case that US air power is making terrorism worse, not better.

His thesis is that, “U.S. air power has, in the last six and a half years, been an effective force in a war for terror, not against it.”

When one considers the nature of the United States’ use of air power, particularly on a strategic level, it has largely proved a failure.

In WWII, when the entire 8th air force was focused on bombing the German aircraft industry during the “big week”, aircraft production increased.

In Viet Nam, bombing increased the support of the Viet Cong in the south, and of the general citizenry in the north, as the North Vietnamese civil defense authorities have attested to repeatedly.

While strategic bombing is more often a failure than not, and is currently failing in both Iraq and Afghanistan because it is the strongest recruiting tool of Jihadists, but the military, including the Army and, to a lesser extent, the Marines, continue to call air strikes in rather than clearing buildings.

It is a fundamental error in doctrine that permeates the US military establishment.

Today in Iraq

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It now appears that, as expected religious leaders in Iraq have told Sadr that he does not have to disband the Mahdi militia.

This is not a surprising outcome. Any “disbanding” would only eliminate the already tenuous chain of command, and you would end up with dozens of smaller groups.

Meanwhile, the The Grauniad* appears to have gotten its hands on the status of forces agreement between Bush and Iraq.

It’s technically “temporary”, though it has no expiration date (kind of like the Billion Year Sea Org contracts), and it, “contains no limits on numbers of US forces, the weapons they are able to deploy, their legal status or powers over Iraqi citizens, going far beyond long-term US security agreements with other countries.”

*According to the Wiki, The Guardian, formerly the Manchester Guardian in the UK. It’s nicknamed the Grauniad because of its penchant for typographical errors, “The nickname The Grauniad for the paper originated with the satirical magazine Private Eye. It came about because of its reputation for frequent and sometimes unintentionally amusing typographical errors, hence the popular myth that the paper once misspelled its own name on the page one masthead as The Gaurdian, though many recall the more inventive The Grauniad.”

Iraq Update: Petraeus As Lying Dishonorable Disgrace to Uniform Edition

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We are still having c, see lashes between the Mahdi Militia and the Iranian Puppet Government forces.

David Petraeus is claiming that Iran supported the Mahdi militias in Basra, which is absolute BS.

While Iran wants a Shia dominated Iraq, they do not want Shia Arab nationalists dominating Iraq, they want people in their pocket, like Chalabi, Hakim, and Maliki.

Sir, in lying in this way to promote Bush’s war, you dishonor the sacrifices of your troops.

Iraq Over the Weekend, and a Conclusion

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Not really updated this for the past few days, as my wife’s birthday has taken precedence.

First, we have Maliki threating an escalation against the Mahdi Army (see here and here), and then we have reports that he’s seeking to ease tensions with the Mahdi Army, and that he has
suspended raids against them.

So it appears that there are some mixed signals out there.

It doesn’t help that the performance of the state security forces was atrocious, with More well over 1000 deserting or refusing to fight.

Abu Aardvark, who has an advantage over most bloggers, and for that matters most US journalists, in that he can read Arabic, the fact that Maliki’s response to all of this has been to recruit over 10,000 members of the Badr Brigades (you know, the ones who are in the pay of the Iranian Republican guard) and the Dawa militias, after insisting that there were no resources available to hire more forces after insisting that there were no positions available to Sunni security forces.

Nothing Maliki does is about anything but short term personal political advantage, which should come as no surprise.

In related news Muqtada al-Sadr is offering to help purge the security forces of militia elements, which I assume means elements of the Badr Brigades and the Dawa militia, and we are seeing an uptick of violence in Sadr City.

If this is not surreal enough for you, the State Department just renewed the contract for Blackwater security with out any changes to the terms, so they still have a license to kill with impunity.

Needless to say, being really pissed off by this, because there is one thing that all the various factions in Iraq can agree with, they want the unaccountable, incompetent, and violent mercenary forces out of their country.

Given the timing of the Basra raid, I have come to the conclusion that this was instigated by Bush and His Evil Minions™, particularly Dick Cheney, who visited just before this all blew up, at least in generalities, if not specifics.

I think that they wanted a dramatic sign of progress prior to the Petraeus testimony

No, This Is Not The Onion

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You just have to love this.

The Badr Brigades are militia of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI, the artist formerly known as SCIRI).

In addition ISCI and Maliki are doing their level best to ensure that they occupy as many positions in the security services, police and military, as possible.

During the Iran-Iraq war, the Badr Brigades fought for the Iranians. They were a part of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which the State Department has declared a terrorist organization.

As a result, these folks are literally collecting a pension from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

So, the dog that we choose to hunt with in Iraq is literally pulling a pension from the Ayatollahs.

Iraq Fighting Post Mortem (Sort Of)

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First, we have the revelation that the news cease fire was brokered by Iranian General Qassem Suleimani, who is on a US terrorism watch list for, “alleged involvement in terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear and missile technology.

When the going gets tough, our allies the Hakim family run to Iran for help. Nice.

The reports of NY Times reporter is particularly instructive, “The common observation was this: There was nowhere the Mahdi either did not control or could not strike at will. Maliki and the Hakims lost, and they lost big.

The reason for the qualifier in the title is that elements of the Mahdi Army are claiming that the government is breaking the cease fire. Hopefully, this is simply a temporary artifact of a new cease fire.

Neocons Now Going After Brits

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Yes, Fredrick Kagan, an chicken hawk idiot in a family of chicken hawk idiots, is criticizing the UK over its withdrawal from Basra last year, and its determination not to involve ground troops now.

Mr. Kagan, you are 38 years old, and according to the wiki, “He earned a B.A. in Soviet and East European studies and a Ph.D. in Russian and Soviet military history, both from Yale University. He worked as an Assistant professor of military history at West Point from 1995-2001 and as an Associate professor of military history from 2001-2005.”

You are young enough to serve, and you have the background to serve. Go serve in this war you love so much.

More Iraq

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Busy past few days.

Basically, even though undoubtedly better equipped, and possibly better trained, the Iraqi Army and Police are getting their asses handed to them, because they are completely unmotivated. Unlike the Hakeem family, the army and police really don’t like fighting for the idea of greater Iranian hegemony in Iraq, which is clearly the goal of the current government.

Sadr is the only major Shia player who isn’t in the Iranian’s pockets, but he’s the one we are targeting air strikes at.

In any case, after some It appears thatfits and starts, negotiations finally got underway, with an Iranian general brokering the cease fire which is not in effect, if only barely (see here, here, and
here)

If you are wondering who won this, just reflect on Sadr’s terms for a truce, release of all Sadrists not convicted of crimes, and amnesty for members of the Mahdi militia.

This is a victory for him, and for Iran.

Good Politics, Good Policy on Iraq

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42 Democrats are promising to submit legislation for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq if elected.

At least one of the 42, Donna Edwards, is pretty much already in, as she defeated the incumbent in the primary, and it’s one of the safest Dem seats in the country.

What needs to be done is to lean on the Bush Blue Dog Democrats.

If we see a few more “Mini-Tets” in Iraq, which I think is likely, then more people will sign on to something like this.

Mess-O-Potamia (Iraq Update)

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Yes, I stole the hed from TDS.

First, it appears that the Iraqi security forces are giving Fatah a run for their money as the worst military in the world, see here, here, and here.

Much of this is about the fact that many in the security forces are deserting and joining the Mahdi army. Truth be told, many were already members of the Mahdi army.

As a result, Maliki is extending his so-called ultimatum to disarm, because everyone is laughing so hard at him.

As a result, the US military is being sucked into the fighting.

UK forces are not deploying to Basra, and have made it clear that they will not be doing so.

I guess it’s a bonus for getting rid of the Poodle.

Iraq Update

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First, we must mention that Tahsin al-Sheikhly, a spokesman for the Iraqi government’s security forces has been kidnapped by elements of the Mahdi Army (See here and here).

It makes one wonder if Maliki’s really the head of the Iraqi government, or a very subtle sketch comedy troupe.

The fighting continues, and we are seeing large protests in Baghdad over this.

It’s increasingly clear that Cheney wanted provincial elections to go forward, and signed off on operations against the Mahdi Army to do this, not because they would prevent elections, but because Maliki wants to take them out to prevent Sadr’s party from making political gains in the elections.

Of course, Maliki is vowing “no retreat” on the operations, but if this ends with a cease fire, he’s done, so it’s not like he has an alternative.

In the mean time, the Maliki forces are not doing well, and it appears that US Armored forces are now actively involved. The Iraqi army is not, as they say, “standing up”.

Finally, on the real reason that we are there, oil, we are seeing oil price spikes on pipeline sabotage.

Tet in Iraq Update

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Well, when we look at the straight news stories, we have the New York Times saying that the, “Iraqi Crackdown on Shiite Forces Sets Off Fighting“, and CNN Reporting that Maliki is offering an “Ultimatum” (AFP says the same.)

There are two possibilities here:

  1. Maliki wants to take out a more political opponent before the provincial elections.
  2. The US Military demanded this, because they want to show “Iraqi military progress” for the upcoming congressional hearings.

My money is on the second. Even a hack like Petraeus knows that the Iraqi military is not ready for this.

Additionally, the reports that Maliki is “personally supervising” the operations in Basra, seems to indicate a ploy by Maliki, not by the members of the Bush military-political complex/

Spencer Ackerman makes a very good point when he says that the US role in all of this is that of a hostage:

As long as Maliki is in the prime minister’s chair, and as long as we proclaim the Iraqi government he leads to be legitimate, Maliki effectively holds us hostage.

Eric Martin asks if Bush and His Evil Minions™ are backing the wrong horse.

I agree with his concerns. While Sadr is looking for a stricter theocracy, he is the most outspoken Shiite Iraqi nationalist in the game, while the other two main Shiite factions, (ISCI/SCIRI and Dawa) are firmly committed to Iran, possibly near-puppets of Iran.

The reason that the US does not make nice with Sadr is because he opposed to the US’s Iraq forever plan, which Bush is irrevocably committed to.

Finally, Matthew Yglesias makes a very good point about the nature of imperialism:

The would-be imperial power has to back the ‘less popular local elements.’ The key thing is to find groups that are strong enough to hold on to power with external support, but too weak to come to be in a position to kick the ladder of external support away.

Any politician in Iraq who could become popular enough to have a meaningful and independent power base is a threat to the US presence there, and thus will be opposed by the US.