Category: Israel

Israel Wants JSF As Soon As Possible, But Has Problems With Aircraft

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Unlike Japan, Israel has come to the conclusion that there will be no F-22 sales, so they want JSF deliveries as soon as possible (paid subscription reqired, preferably starting in 2012, because they want to add stealth as soon as possible.

There are, however, some road bumps on the way:

  • Lockheed-Martin is saying that there can be no foreign deliveries until 2014.
  • There are no Israeli weapons qualified for use on the aircraft, and it’s closed, tightly integrated architecture will make qualifying those weapons (Python 5 AAM and successors, Spice PGM) extremely difficult.
  • The IAF does not believe that it can perform its missions as a single seat aircraft.
    • As an aside, the USAF has been trying to get rid of the weapons system operator (guy in back) for years, probably to free up a few more planes for the fly-boys.
  • Integration of Israeli radar and EW systems could “difficult and expensive”.

These issues mirror many of the UK’s issue with the aircraft, where, as it currently stands, the RAF and the RNAF will not be able to maintain the aircraft fully, and in some cases aircraft would have to be sent back to the States for maintenance or upgrade.

Israel’s Lessons Learned in Lebanon

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First, we have a USAF analysis and bomb damage assesment (paid subscription required) which basically comes down to the following: Don’t let an Air Force General be the chief or your general staff, as General Dan Halutz was. The pertinent quote:

Israel broke new ground when it became the only other country besides the U.S. to conduct a sustained, round-the-clock, modern air campaign in responding to rocket and missile attacks by Hez­bollah from southern Lebanon, says Arkin. But in doing so, Israel also followed a discredited airpower model by failing to connect air and ground attacks to its overall political and military objectives and communicate what it was doing.

This basically translates to following Curtis LeMay’s strategic bombing doctrine. It is another argument against having an air force as an independent branch of the military service.

The Israeli assesment of the war (paid subscription required), is similar, though I think a more complete analysis. Some pertinent quotes:

Specifically faulted is the decision to begin operations before military objectives and political goals had been identified.

…

“Hezbollah is not the problem; leadership is,” says one of Israel’s renowned generals, now retired. That lack of leadership failed to improve a longtime mis-prioritization of effort, intelligence, training and decision-making that led to a muddled military campaign, he says.

…

Additionally, one finds problems in coordination between services:

Early in the conflict, the Israeli air force (IAF) was not in the same network as the army, according to aerospace industry officials; however, after several days of combat, that connection was made and data exchange was improved.

….

“The air force did a good job in taking out the medium- and long-range missiles,” the retired general says. “Northern Command was the problem. The air force could attack only [in short-range missile launch areas] if it got permission. Katyushas and other short-range missiles were the responsibility of the artillery and Northern Command.”

Additionally, it appears that the IDF was going through a shift similar to Rumsfeld’s transformation, with similarly dismal results.

Government officials had not anticipated a war, and Halutz (a technocrat) had been brought in to the top position to shave defense spending, streamline acquisition and change the force to a less armor-heavy mix. Air Force pilots of the rank of colonel and brigadier general, asked about the Army’s antipathy toward Halutz, say the former chief of staff would be the last to blame anyone in the army, but they agree there was a good deal of resentment from regular army commanders who saw opportunities for senior positions slipping away from them as the military changed.

Part of the lesson is a round the clock air presence above the the battle space, and part is the fact that there really was no plan on what to do if the army had to move in a full scale invasion:

If the army had been better prepared, some Israeli officials contend, a strong move toward Beirut would have pulled the Hezbollah fighters out of their bunker positions and forced the Lebanese government to get involved earlier. But with the transformation unfinished, an attack into Hezbollah’s most heavily fortified positions turned into a war of attrition and a political trap.

….

“You can only get rid of the Katyushas with a land force,” says the retired general. But by the time the ground force was heavily involved, the conflict had gone on for a month and Hezbollah was in its long-prepared positions. “The attack was strategically incorrect,” he says. “Instead of going into Hezbollah land, they should have gone to Beirut. They lost [military and political advantage] every day after the first four. You have to go for the limited war, otherwise the advantage is with the irregulars, and the focus shifts from the battlefield leaders to guys in offices.”

Basically, Israel bought into the “Networked war” model that the US has been pushing for some time, and it did not work against irregular forces (It did against Saddam’s army, then failed utterly against the insurgency).

I think that there is going to be a much greater role for armed drones in the future too:

Discussing UAV armament is taboo, but Elbit-built Hermes 450s were armed with missiles and used heavily as strike aircraft during the Lebanon fighting. Late in the war, no Hezbollah short-range missile was fired without immediate counter-fire from a UAV or manned aircraft, say a number of Israeli officials. To ensure there was always a UAV available on short notice, they were operated in stacks positioned over several parts of the battlefield. A UAV would enter the stack upon arrival, circle until needed and then return to base after completing its mission. The aircraft operated at an altitude where they could not be heard and, often, not seen. The Hermes 450s generated 16,000 flying hours, three months in a row with a 92% mission completion rate, the officials say.

…..

Despite hard flying by the UAV unit, management of the conflict limited their contribution and exposed their limitations.

….

My guess is that we will first see this in the skies above Gaza, where the opportunity for immediate response to Kassam launchers being set up will be the primary mission.

IDF Planning Groud Assault on Gaza

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This Aviation Week Articls (Paid Subscription Required) mentions a number of issues and complications:

  • That any decision on a ground assault would be influenced by the outcome of PA/Israeli negotiations.
    • The article implies that a failure in negotiations would lead to a ground action, but I see it as being the other way around. As long as their fingerprints are not on it, the PLO/Fatah would love to see the IDF assaulting Hamas and Islamic Jihad, they are their rivals.
  • The high population density makes operations difficult.
  • The tunneling operations can reduce the utility of air assets significantly.
  • Uncertainty as to the actual size of the opposing force.
    • FWIW, I think that Hamas is uncertain of this too. Much of the goodwill that they used to win in parliamentary elections has been exhausted, and so it is unclear how many of their irregular forces will take up arms if directed to do so.

As the joke goes, “Yes, but this is the middle east.”

Conversational Hebrew

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This little tidbit from the times gives one a pretty good idea how people think what they really think about Condoleeza Rice:

The long buildup to Annapolis, together with Ms. Rice’s many trips to the region, have given birth to a new verb in Israeli government circles: “lecondel,” meaning, to come and go for meetings that produce few results. The word is based on Ms. Rice’s first name.

This misadministration still shocks me with its incompetence.

Possible Resolutions to the Conflict Involving Israel

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Here is another posting, cleaned up a bit, of mine from a Yahoo group that I’m on called JOINint*
Someone asked a question, and her is my rather pessimistic answer:

Please, someone, anyone, show me how we can save Israel AND make a true and lasting peace with our cousins, the Arabs?

There are two solutions that would currently work work:

  • The liquidation of the state of Israel.
  • The ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians in areas under Israeli control.

To my mind, neither are acceptable, so the question is how one finds a solution that does not involve either,

Given the current state of affairs, I do not see any positive developments.

However, the primary driver on this issue is oil, and this will be changing. Current predictions see Iran no longer exporting oil in less than 30 years, and Saudi Arabia production may very well have already peaked.

If the center of oil production moves elsewhere, and/or the world economy transitions from an oil economy, which I see as happening sooner rather than later, the interest in appeasing Arab sensibilities vanishes.

Much of this conflict is driven by the perception in the Palestinian community that time is on their side by virtue of both demographics and by what they see as significant unequivocal international support for their rights, look at your average vote in the General Assembly of the UN, and when their perception changes, a settlement will come.

Basically, when the Arabs run out of oil, no one will care about them, most of their support in the international arena has been bought in some form or another, and when the House of Saud in particular, and the Arab world in general runs out of this currency, the interest in their concerns will vanish.

Hopefully, in this transition/decline, a settlement can be reached, because if not, I see the ethnic cleansing of the disputed territories as a distinct possibility only a bit after that.

One thing that goes unremarked on is that the views of Israeli society are changing.

In 1980, if one had been at a party, and suggested ethnic cleansing Arabs, people would have looked at you like you had taken a dump in the punch bowl, and you would never have been invited back.

Today, there would doubtless be a ferocious discussion/argument, but the discussion of this tactic has become socially acceptable. This is a change in attitude that is profoundly troubling.

Note that any prediction of the future is at best imprecise. I do not see the House of Saud surviving, and in its fall there are any number of outcomes, both bad and good, that are beyond anyone’s power to predict.

Certainly, this will result in a movement of the center of Arab thought, probably back to Egypt. In the early 1900s, Cairo was the center of Arab and Islamic intellectual discourse, before Saudi basically prostituted the Cairo academics and intellectuals.

*Jewish Opinions, Ideas, and News, International It spun off from another group when it descended into right wing agitprop.

Fatah Planting Bombs in Gaza????

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Three Hamas militants wounded in Gaza in a Gaza explosion, and not only does Israel deny involvement, but Hamas agrees that the IDF had nothing to do with it.

It could be Islamic Jihad, of course, but given the PLO’s record on both conventional and urban fighting, their military record implies that they are over matched by a mean little kid with a pea shooter, this seems more the work of the PLO, particularly Fatah.

It requires a significant investment in resources and planning, but very little risk to the perps.

No Syrian Nukes

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Some analysis on GlobalSecurity.org and Phoenix Woman’s blog do a pretty good job of evicerating the claims of nuclear weapons activity.

So, if it’s not nukes, what did Israel hit? It hit weapons destined to Hamas in Lebanon.

Why would they do this? To regain credibility after the debacle in Lebanon.

On to the debunking.

First, my analysis:

Syria is not even close to have the basic nuclear infrastructure that could begin to construct nuclear weapons infrastructure. They have little in the way of Uranium, no smelting facilities, no enrichment or other purification facilities, and very little of the human capital necessary.

Second, Phoenix Woman:

A 5 MW reactor is big. From the satellite photo, once can see that the Yongbyon site is 4500 x 2500 m, or roughly 2.5 mi x 1.5 mi. The reactor building is very roughly 250 x 450 m. It consumes massive amounts of fuel: 110 tons of spent fuel per year. John Pike’s GlocalSecurity thinks that the satellite imagery of a uranium enrichment facility might be missed. In my opinion, the large amount of ore required would not be, especially considering that Syria doesn’t have good ore sources (it does have a site which extracts uranium from phosphate at Homs, but the uranium is a contaminant; see Glocal Security below).

In other words, it’s just too damn big to hide from the very earliest stages of site preparation.

Third, GlobalSecurity.org:

“dramatic satellite imagery” – the types of activity associated with nuclear weapons development, particularly at the early stages of the program, are precisely the sorts of things that are not going to produce dramatic satellite imagery, which is why North Korea’s uranium program is so vexing for the United States.
“primarily from Israel” – the reliance on such liasion sourced intelligence that could not be independently verified was one of the central problems with the Iraq WMD intelligence failure, and either evidence is “primarily from Israel” [ie, HUMINT] or it is independtly knowable by the United States based on “dramatic satellite imagery” but it is difficult to comprehend how both statements could be true.
“restricted to a few senior officials” – this part of the story is designed to explain to other reporters why their sources are unable to confirm any of the details of this report
“arrival at the Syrian port of Tartus” – this is not a large facility, and this news story would have us believe that Israeli intelligence has intimate knowledge of unloading activities at this port, a collection capability that was willingly compromised here
“labeled as cement” — cement is normally transported as a bulk powder, and less frequently in recent decades in bags — neither form of transport would usefully conceal nuclear related components, and labeling some other means of transport [eg, standard 40-foot containters] as cement would be so patently false as to immediately draw suspicion to the shipment.
“on the Euphrates River, close to the Turkish border” — the implication, though not over assertion, is that over the course of three days Israeli intelligence was able to track the shipment as it travelled half-way across Syria, or that Israeli surveillance of Syria is so comprehensive that the shipment was detected upon arrival — either of which is very impressive and hard to believe.
“using it to extract uranium from phosphates” – Syria has a phosphate industry, which supports the production of fertilizer and phosphoric acid. Between 1996 and 2001 Syria operated a pilot plant at Homs for the purification of phosphoric acid, in order to remove the uranium contanmination so that the phosphoric acid could be used for food processing. This project was financed by the UN Developement Program, supported by the IAEA, and not bombed by Israel.

And if that is not enough, we have John “The Mustache of Doom” Bolton as one of the sources for the press.

On 16 September 2007 former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton said “it will be very unusual for Israel to conduct such a military operation inside Syria other (than) for a very high value target and certainly a Syrian effort in nuclear weapon area will qualify. … I think this is a clear message not only to Syria, this is a clear message to Iran as well that its continued efforts to acquire nuclear weapons are not going to go unanswered…” Bolton never claims direct knowledge of the facts of the matter, only that a strike against Syrian nuclear capabilities would be in the interest of Israel.

John Bolton has never let the truth stop him from making baseless accusations, but even HE is not willing to claim that there is a nuke facility.

New York Times is Reporting that Israeli Air Strike Was On Nuclear Reactor

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OK, this has gone back and forth about half a dozen times now, but this is the current flavor of the day.

According to “U.S. and foreign officials who had access to the analysts’ intelligence reports”, the reactor was very similar to the DPRK’s graphite moderated reactor at Yongbyon.

Here are the two most significant quotes from the article:

Information on the raid has been under under tight wraps in both Washington and Israel, the newspaper said, restricted to a handful of officials, and Israeli media have been barred from publishing information about it.

But a senior Israeli official said the attack was meant to “re-establish the credibility of our deterrent power,” the Times said. Several U.S. officials told the paper the strike may also have been intended for the attention of Iran and its nuclear program.

I read this as saying that it was primarily intended to be a warning to Iran, but there is an unspoken subtext, that the Olmert government might have been motivated to make the strike, at least to a degree, for political considerations.

The proof will be in whether or not Olmert calls for snap elections soon.

The newspaper also reported that Vice President Dick Cheney and other hawkish members of the administration contended that the same intelligence that prompted Israel’s attack on the reactor strengthened the case for U.S. reconsideration of negotiations with North Korea over ending its nuclear program, as well as Washington’s diplomatic posture with Syria.

This means that the usual suspects among the Neocons are using this as an excuse to agitate for war with Syria (and possibly Iran) and to overturn the current deals with the DRPK.

One should recall that vb before building the reactor at Yongbyon, the DPRK had already located Uranium mines, begun mining, and had manufactured fuel, both unenriched and enriched. The presence of a reactor in Syria does not constitute a competent and self-sufficient nuclear program on its own.

What Happened in Syria?

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The New York Times is reporting that Dick Cheney, and his merry band of lunatics is maintaining that the DPRK was shipping nuclear technology to Syria, and Condi Rice and the State Department are maintaining there there is no conclusive evidence on which to act.

It’s clear that Israel felt that there was some sort of threat, but they are not talking. That being said, if there is a faceoff between those who are completely batsh$# insane and always wrong and those who are sometimes insane, and usually wrong, I’ll go with the latter.

Syria has no background in nuclear weapons technology, but I could see them getting improved chem/bio warheads from the DPRK, as they do have active programs there, at least on the chem side.

Israeli FM Minimizes Threat of Iranian Nukes

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It turns out that a few months agoForeign Minister Tzipi Livni said that Iranian nuclear weapons do not pose an existential threat to Israel. The article also reports that former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy has similar views.

This is no surprise. Given that any Iranian action would inevitably result in a devastating Israeli counterstrike, some of which would be submarine bases, and hence secure from a first strike, we would be at mutually assured destruction, which worked between the US and the USSR for years.

Additionally, considering the Iranians as Persian, rather than Arab, it would be unusual to expect them to take actions that would result in the destruction of their culture in order to benefit an what is largely an Arab agenda.

There is also an insight into Israeli politics, specifically how Kadima would look to hold onto power with Ariel Sharon:

Livni also criticized the exaggerated use that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is making of the issue of the Iranian bomb, claiming that he is attempting to rally the public around him by playing on its most basic fears.

I would be very surprised if Kadima were above 3rd place in votes next elections, and I would not be surprised if the losses were stunning. It really is Ariel Sharon’s vanity party, and he is now gone.

OK, Maybe I Was Wrong About the Nature of the Israeli Airstrike on Syria

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According to this ABC News report, the US requested, and got, a delay in the attack because they were concerned about the accuracy of the Israeli intelligence showing an ambitious nuclear facility, and possible repercussions.

I may have been wrong in my previous assessment that it was not a nuclear facility, but as the sources could for the ABC story could be political appointees, I still lean against it being a nuclear facility.

Simply put, Syria does not have the infrastructure to even begin any sort of nuclear weapons development.

As to the sourcing, it could be some mid-level intelligence professionals, or some politically appointed yahoo like John Bolton.

No Nuclear Weapons Technology in Syria

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Accordiong to Raw Story, the Israeli airstrike two weeks ago did not target a nuclear weapons facility, but was insteaddirected at a short range ballistic missile (SCUD type) missile depot. It was apparently brought on by a weapons handling accident in which chemical weapons were released, killing around 50 people.

It was thought to be an attempt to place chemical warheads on the missile.

Considering the paucity of the Syrian nuclear effort, one small research reactor that produces medical isotopes, one wonders who was spreading the rumor of nuclear weapons activity.

What the Hell Were the Israeli Defense Forces Thinking???

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I came across this in Aviation Week’s “Washington Outlook” news sumary:

During last year’s fighting in Lebanon, the Syria listening post monitored private cell phone conversations from Israeli soldiers that gave Hezbollah enough information to locate and identify ground units even though Israeli military radios remained secure.

They let their soldiers go into battle wearing cell phones???? They let their soldiers use them?

What the hell were they thinking? Even if the phone is “off” you can turn it on remotely (it’s a method of bugging people).

They let their soldiers carry emitters that painted targets on their backs!!

Do Not Give to the ADL Until It Tells The Truth About the Armenian Genocide

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Speaking as a Jew, and a Zionist, it is with no small amount of disappointment that I call on all people, regardless of faith to neither contribute to, or work with, the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), which was one the premier organizations opposing anti-Semitism.

They have formally come out in opposition to the congressional resolution decrying the Armenian Genocide by the Ottoman Empire during WW I. This Genocide is a FACT, and the idea that they would align themselves with those who would deny this fact is deplorable.

Their excuse is that modern Turkey, whose government had no role in the Genocide is an ally of Israel, and they do not wish to offend them. This is wrong and counter-productive.

What’s more, They fired a longtime ADL and activist because he acknowledged the genicide, which resulted in two of the regional board resigning.

Their statement follows, and I am willing to allow a representative to post here unedited to present their side.

ADL Statement on the Armenian Genocide
New York, NY, August 21, 2007
Abraham H. Foxman, National Director of the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) today issued the following statement:

In light of the heated controversy that has surrounded the Turkish-Armenian issue in recent weeks, and because of our concern for the unity of the Jewish community at a time of increased threats against the Jewish people, ADL has decided to revisit the tragedy that befell the Armenians.

We have never negated but have always described the painful events of 1915-1918 perpetrated by the Ottoman Empire against the Armenians as massacres and atrocities. On reflection, we have come to share the view of Henry Morgenthau, Sr. that the consequences of those actions were indeed tantamount to genocide. If the word genocide had existed then, they would have called it genocide.

I have consulted with my friend and mentor Nobel Laureate Elie Wiesel and other respected historians who acknowledge this consensus. I hope that Turkey will understand that it is Turkey’s friends who urge that nation to confront its past and work to reconcile with Armenians over this dark chapter in history.

Having said that, we continue to firmly believe that a Congressional resolution on such matters is a counterproductive diversion and will not foster reconciliation between Turks and Armenians and may put at risk the Turkish Jewish community and the important multilateral relationship between Turkey, Israel and the United States.

I wonder if I’ll get a post from Serdar Argic.

My Wife is a Member of ZOG, and I Didn’t Even Get a F$#@ing T-shirt

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My wife got a fund solicitation from AIPAC today. I haven’t gotten anything.

I’m feeling so left out. What’s wrong with me? Why can’t I be a member of the Zionist Occupation Government?

But it’s not like I’d give those morons money. They have their tongue so far up GW Bush’s ass, they can taste his tonsils, and this guy would sell Israel down the river in a minute for Prince Bandar.

Women of the IDF

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Let’s understand this. One of the things concerning people wanting to make aliyah to Israel is the mandatory military service.

Now, people will look forward to it.

Andrew Sullivan calls it Porn For Neocons, which is vaguely amusing.

BABES IN OY LAND SCUFFLE By ANDY SOLTIS

BABES IN OY LAND SCUFFLE

The New York post is trash, but I love their headlines.

By ANDY SOLTIS

June 19, 2007 — Israeli female legislators are baring their anger over what they call a “pornographic” tourism campaign – featuring a bikini-clad Israeli beauty queen.

The racy photo of 2004 Miss Israel winner Gal Gadot appears on formal invitations to an event hosted in New York tonight by the Israeli Consulate in conjunction with Maxim magazine.

The affair is to “celebrate” the magazine’s “Women of the Israeli Defense Forces” article in the July issue.

But prominent Israeli women say using sex to market the Land of Milk and Honey is “an outrage.”

Former Consul-General Colette Avital, a member of the Israeli parliament, yesterday demanded an urgent meeting with the Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik to get an explanation of what she called the “pornographic campaign,” the newspaper Yediot Achronoth reported.

The consulate in New York says the campaign is just seeking good demographics.

“We found that Israel’s image among men 18-38 is lacking,” David Saranga, consul for media and public affairs said.

“So we thought we’d approach them with an image they’d find appealing.”

That’s the wrong image, said Zahava Gal-On, a Knesset member and chairwoman of the Meretz Party.

…