Category: Israel

U.S. Looking at Israeli Iron Fist APS

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From Wiki

It looks like the US military is far less sanguine over Raytheon’s Active Protection System (APS), Quick Kill, because the military folks at the AUSA convention were all over the Israeli Iron Fist APS, made by Rafael.

It is similar to, but appears to be a somewhat more capable system than the other Israeli APS, IMI’s Trophy system, in that it can engage KE rounds as well as ATGMs and RPGs.

The concept is somewhat different than both Raytheon’s and IMI’s, with the blast intended to take out incoming missiles and sabot darts, as opposed to shot, which means that the sabot is not actually destroyed, but made to yaw prior to impact, which would reduce penetration.

When one considers that the Israeli standard infantry fighting vehicle is the Namer, which is based on the Merkava chassis, and weighs in at 60T, as versus 40T for the Bradley, the 20T Stryker, and the 20-30T FCS replacement, it may be of somewhat more limited utility.

A sabot yawing 15° or so off the normal may not prevent penetration of the thinner armor, but on the plus side, using of a non-fragmenting charge means that the potential to injure troops operating closely to the vehicle is significantly reduced.

Background here, here, and here.

These Things go Together

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Aermacchi’s M-346


Korea Aerospace Industries T-50

First, we have South Korea selecting the Israel Aerospace Industries/Elta Systems EL/M-2032 radar for its combat version of its A/T-50 trainer, and now Israel eyes has the T-50 on its short list, along with the M-346, as a replacement for its A-4 Skyhawk advanced trainer.

Funny how that works out.

If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on the T-50.

In either case, I feel a great affection for the A-4 “Scooter.”

I Do Not Know If This Shows Anti-Semitism, but It Does Show Stupidity

This is Not a Swastika (Pic from Proud Zionist)

The latest controversy involving Human Rights Watch is the fact that their senior military analyst, Mark Garlasco, is also an avid, and fairly prominent, collector of Nazi military memorabilia, and he has now been suspended from his position.

I think that a lot, though not all, of the issue here is stupidity, whether or not Mr. Garlasco harbors anti-Semitic thoughts or not.

When you are a military analyst who collects such stuff, and you are assigned to look at Israeli military operations, you need to know that it is best to not accept the assignment, and if your boss knows your hobby, he needs to know that he should never give you such an assignment.

They both had to know that it would harm his reputation and that of HRW.

Still, it’s clear that some of the commentary out there is clearly hysterical, such as hyping the picture of him with a German Cross on his hoodie, and NGO Monitor assertion his name on various boards, “Flak88,” is a secret Nazi symbol thing (8=H, so 88=HH=Heil Hitler). His specialty is German anti-aircraft memorabilia, his grandfather was a conscript serving in an anti-aircraft unit, and the Krupp 88mm gun was the best known AA (and anti-tank) gun of the war.

In any case, Mr. Garlasco published a response on Huffpo.

My assessment is that there is no evidence that he is an anti-Semite, nor that sympathizes with the Nazis.

That being said, there is another issue, which is whether Marc Garlasco, and Human Rights Watch are biased against Israel for other reasons, most notably nostalgie de la boue, literally “love of the mud”, which can either refer to the “elites” affecting “peasant” style and the like, or, and this is the definition that I’m using, the idea that those non-western “less advanced” societies are somehow more inherently good because they are less polluted by civilization.

I think that there reasons to be concerned that both Garlasco and HRW watch are guilty of this, and objectively anti-Israel as a result.

Omri Ceren observes that while no one is perfect, that the errors that have been found have always cut against Israel, and so, much like the “errors” in Florida in the 2000 presidential vote recount, show bias, though Mr. Ceren makes it very clear that he lacks any sort of smoking gun.

I do think that there is a smoking gun on the part of Human Rights Watch and Mr Garlasco as to a double standard.

Specifically, Daled Amos digs into the interviews with him, and uncovers two telling quotes.

The first is from 60 minutes:

“I don’t think people really appreciate the gymnastics that the U.S. military goes through in order to make sure that they’re not killing civilians,” Garlasco points out.

“If so much care is being taken why are so many civilians getting killed?” Pelley asks.

“Because the Taliban are violating international law,” says Garlasco, “and because the U.S. just doesn’t have enough troops on the ground. You have the Taliban shielding in people’s homes. And you have this small number of troops on the ground. And sometimes the only thing they can do is drop bombs.”

This is not something you see in reports from Human Rights watch in any report about Israeli military actions until at least page 6, and then only in the most circumspect terms.

And the news broadcast further states:

Garlasco says, before the invasion of Iraq, he recommended 50 air strikes aimed at high-value targets — Iraqi officials.

But he says none of the targets on the list were actually killed. Instead, he says, “a couple of hundred civilians at least” were killed.

Note that “targeted killings” that he advised on is something that Garlasco has specifically said is a war crime when Israel does this.

My thesis is that much of the overwrought nature of the coverage of Israel comes from the fact that the existence of Israel is an indictment of the western industrialized world.

The origins of modern Israel are that Jews in western Europe, particularly as a result of the Dreyfus affair in France, felt a need to have a homeland to flee to, and the events of the following century reinforced this need.

Israel exists because of the moral failure of the west over the past 120 years, and acknowledging that failure does not sit well with a lot of people.

When a Hijacking Isn’t

I’m reading conflicting stories about what happened to the Russian freighter that was captured by pirates, but there are also reports that the ship was carrying S-300 SAMs (Probably the NATO designation SA-12) to Iran, and that the capture of the ship by “pirates” was a ploy by Russia to avoid delivery of missiles that had already been sold by someone who should have sold them.

In any case, it is definitely weird.

Sanity Brakes Out in Missile Defense

We now have a report that the US will abandon plans to station missile interceptors in Eastern Europe

Washington will scrap plans to put anti-missile bases in Poland and the Czech Republic and is looking at alternatives including Israel and Turkey, a Polish newspaper reported Aug. 27, citing U.S. officials.

The U.S. plan, intended for defense against attacks from Iran, has met with fierce objections from Russia, which regarded the eastern European bases as a threat to its own security.

This is good news. Not only was Eastern Europe a piss poor location for missile defense, because it leaves allies on the southern tier of NATO unprotected, but it is located so as to be a direct threat, and a means of surveillance of, all of the European territory of Russia.

I continue to maintain that the real goal of the missile system was to create hostility, which would, in the perception of the Dick Cheneys of the world, bolster the Republican Party.

Israel Looking at UAV Ambulance

There are definitely reasons for such a craft, but I think that unmanned ambulance is not one of the better applications.

If you are evacuating someone, you want have a doctor or paramedic on site to administer things like plasma, etc., and they would likely need to monitor the patient for the trip if it is any longer than about 10 minutes, and once you have to do that, having a pilot too makes sense.

That being said, things like remote resupply would be a viable application.

Israeli Air Force Test-Flies T-50 Jet

Israel has neglected its trainers for a while, I think that their Fouga Magisters were retired as primary trainers only a few years ago, and that they still use the A-4 Skyhawk as an advanced trainer, so it comes as no surprise that the IAF has done some test flights in the supersonic T-50 trainer.

They are also looking at the BAE Hawk and the (also supersonic, but barely) Aermacchi M-346, which ironically started as a Russian design.

Still, it’s $25 million a pop for the T-50….Great googly moogly.

Lockheed Concerned That Israel Will Terminate F-35

Israel’s early order of the JSF has provided a lot of credibility to the program, but concerns about the escalating costs, and the inflexibility, the plane is a closed platform to which the Israelis cannot add their own systems,is causing some cold feet inside the IDF/AF.

By way of hand holding, Lockheed has proposed to offered to do final assembly in Israel.

While there has been a lot of effort to portray this aircraft as a colossus striding across the world military jet fighter market, it’s position actually seems precarious.

Creating a More Target Rich Environment

Russia is sending sending 50 armored vehicles to the Palestinian Authority.

I’m sure that the thinking is that this will better allow the PA to fight Hamas, but considering the PLO’s long history of ineptitude in anything remotely near conventional military conflicts, this just means that Hamas will have bigger targets to shoot at.

In the event of things getting hot with Hamas, they will last 2 days, against the IDF, less than 2 hours.

Israel May Drop JSF

So, we now have a report that Israel may order the semi-stealthy “Silent Eagle” if it does not get technical data on the computer for the F-35 JSF.

The claim is that they need to be able to repair the systems under combat conditions, but the counter claim by the US that they will have sufficient spares to swap them out seems to be convincing to me, so I think that there may be other issues.

First is the price. With an order of 75 aircraft, and a price of up to $20 billion, the cost of the aircraft is $266 million each (!), and that is simply not affordable.

Heck, the good old USA can’t afford more F-22s at a mere (!) 185 million each.

More significant, however, is that without this access, the Israelis will be unable to qualify their own systems on the aircraft.

This means that they cannot configure their own weapons, or their own avionics in such a system, means that, for example, they could not make adjustments to the AESA radar in order to jam some new sensor that was fielded, or install a dedicated jamming system on the aircraft.

I think that idea that they would be at the mercy of Lockheed-Martin for timely software upgrades to counter a new weapons system that the Russians or Chinese ship to the Syrians scares the hell out of the IAF.

Thoughts on Netanyahu and I/P Issues

I think that Benyamin Netanyahu is a corrupt nutjob, and his economic policies, specifically his his economic and fiscal embrace of Thatcherism, are almost as crazy as his security policy.

That being said, one of the goals of negotiation is to negotiate and the Palestinians have been consistently infantilized in this process.

In any other negotiation, whether it be the UAW and General Motors, Croatia/Slovenia border discussions, or two people dickering over a used car, people try to maximize their advantage in a negotiation.

To use the case of the used car, it means that the price on the window is higher than the dealer really needs to sell it at, and the car has been repainted, and the customer comes with a magnet to look for bondo and paint jobs, and parhaps a carfax.com report, and they start off very far apart.

This is what happens in negotiations. Both sides take positions as a starting point that are more extreme than they expect to actually get, and try to define the situation on the ground (paint jobs, bondo, etc.) to bolster their positions.

This is what happens, and once this does happen in negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians, things will move forward, toward an (inevitable) Palestinian state.

People who believe that the normal give and take of a negotiation process is somehow unfair and unjust, and must be somehow avoided, it will forestall meaningful negotiations. It raises unrealistic expectations, and in the case of the Palestinians, those expectations mean that real negotiations, which will produce a less than optimal solution for everyone on both sides, create a very real risk of the death of whoever signs off on such a deal.

It probably won’t be Netanyahu who will be the one to finish the deal, but someone will.

As to the what a Palestinian state would look like, I rather imagine that it will be a typical failed Arab government, much like the corrupt and autocratic Egypt, Sudan, Algeria, Jordan, Iraq, UAE, etc., but it will be their failed government, and that is what they want.

One final note: A solution to this problem will not solve any other problem in the world. The idea that all of the problems in the Middle East somehow run through Jerusalem and Ramallah is as nonsensical as it is widely held.

This does not make the problem not worth solving. This is worth solving on its own merits.

Israel Has Maintenance Access Issue with F-35

Israel has just been denied access to the computer systems of the F-35 JSF that would be required to maintain the aircraft.

Israel maintains that they need they need access to these systems, because in a wartime scenario, that they would need to repair the systems in real time, while the US maintains that there will be spares that can be replaced under those circumstances.

So Israel is now making noises about looking at the F-15 Silent Eagle upgrade as an alternative to the JSF, which I think is just blowing smoke.

I also think that both sides are talking around the real issues, the first being sticker shock, with a reporter $20 billion for 75 aircraft giving a $266 million price tag, but the second one, and perhaps the one that the Israelis are more concerned with, is the ability to independently integrate their own weapons and their own systems into the aircraft.

There is also the concern, at least amongst those of us who watched the recent Battlestar Galactica series, that there may be an “off” switch somewhere in those millions of lines of code.

Labor Joins Israeli Coalition

Benyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak have come to an agreement for a coalition government, and the Labor Party central committee voted to approve the deal, so it appears that there is now a governing coalition is Israel.

It appears that Netanyahu gave labor much more than just the Defense portfolio:

  • 5 Cabinet posts, including the Defense and Trade and Industry Ministries.
  • 2 Deputy ministry positions.
  • A fairly liberal economic policy, which includes:
    • Money for retraining workers
    • Funding for child care
    • A commitment not to cut salaries in the public sector
    • A commitment to increases in benefits for pensioners
    • An increased political role for the Histadrut, Israel’s organization of trade unions.

It’s clear from this deal that Netanyahu was desperate to have this, given Labor’s poor showing (only 13 seats), and it also represents a return by the Labor Party to the interests of, well, (small l) labor, which may go a long way towards distinguishing themselves from Kadima.

I think that Netanyahu could have gone right for the coalition, but the idea of actually having to follow up on his hard line rhetoric during the campaign scares him.

Netanyahu is Terrified of His Campaign Promises

Benyamin Netanyahu is aggressively pursuing a coalition with Labor, and strange as it sounds, it might happen because Ehud Barak really wants to stay on as head of the Defense Ministry, though some of his fellow Laborites are aghast at the prospect.

I would also take issue with one of the points that the author of the second link, Jeff Barak, has with Avigdor Lieberman being the Foreign Minister: It’s actually one of the two positions where his positions are least likely to cause a problem, because his three basic planks are a two state solution (and as FM he won’t get to draw those boundaries), hostility to the Arab population inside the Green Line, and staunch secularism.

I’d much rather see him being the Minister of Religious Services, but when all is said and done, the FM position keeps him away from internal Israeli politics.