Category: Middle East

Now It’s A-10s and AC-130s

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So now we are now engaging in direct close air support in direct support of the rebel forces, which means that, win or lose, the rebels will have very little legitimacy, and so will be dependent upon support of the west, probably the British and French, in any future government.

This ain’t a bug, it’s a feature, because it makes for a low cost semi-colonial relationship with the oil rich nation in the future:

The U.S. military dramatically stepped up its assault on Libyan government ground forces over the weekend, launching its first missions with AC-130 flying gunships and A-10 attack aircraft designed to strike enemy ground troops and supply convoys.

The use of the aircraft, during days of heavy fighting in which the momentum seemed to swing in favor of the rebels, demonstrated how allied military forces have been drawn deeper into the chaotic fight in Libya. A mission that initially seemed to revolve around establishing a no-fly zone has become focused on halting advances by government ground forces in and around key coastal cities.

The AC-130s, which fly low and slow over the battlefield and are typically more vulnerable to enemy fire than fast-moving fighter jets, were deployed only after a week of sustained coalition attacks on Libyan government air defenses and radar sites. These aircraft, armed with heavy machine guns and cannons that rake the ground, allow strikes on dug-in Libyan ground forces and convoys in closer proximity to civilians.

Let’s be clear here: Dug in forces are not a threat to non-combatant civilians. They are an impediment to the rebel army, and going after them puts the lie to the idea that this is about “protecting civilians,” as called for in the Security Council resolution.

I agree with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who is saying that this is taking sides in a civil war, and while the removal of Qaddafi may be a noble goal, it is not the one that was authorized.

We are back down the same rabbit hole that forced us to invade Iraq.

The survival of the current regime in Libya has now become an unacceptable outcome, notwithstanding the protests of Obama and other world leaders, just like the survival of Saddam Hussein’s regime became unacceptable to Bush, Jr. in 2003.

We elected George W. Bush with better diction.

Signs of the Apocalypse

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When Peggy “Dolphins Saved Elian Gonzalez” Noonan says that she thinks that an American war is stupid:

The biggest takeaway, the biggest foreign-policy fact, of the past decade is this: America has to be very careful where it goes in the world, because the minute it’s there — the minute there are boots on the ground, the minute we leave a footprint — there will spring up, immediately, 15 reasons America cannot leave. The next day there will be 30 reasons, and the day after that 45. They are often serious and legitimate reasons.

So we wind up in long, drawn-out struggles when we didn’t mean to, when it wasn’t the plan, or the hope, or the expectation.

We have to keep this phenomenon in mind as we chart our path in the future. It’s easy to start a war but hard to end one. It’s as simple as that. It’s easy to get in but hard to get out. Even today, in Baghdad, you hear that America can’t leave Iraq because the government isn’t sturdy enough, the army and police aren’t strong enough to withstand the winds that will follow America’s full departure, that all that has been achieved — a fragile, incomplete, relative peace — will be lost. America cannot leave because Iraq will be vulnerable to civil war, not between Sunnis and Shiites, they tell you now, but between Arabs and Kurds, in the north, near the oil fields.

She is, of course, writing about the war du jour, Libya, and she is correct.  It’s a bad idea.

What’s more, when this operation is well within the capabilities of other countries, either the UK or France could likely do this on their own, and certainly can do this together, so say nothing of the contributions of Italy and Canada (!?!?!?!), there is no need for any contribution to the kinetic portion of the war by the US, though satellite and signals intelligence could certainly make a difference.

A reader of Americablog nailed what is driving the American involvement in this:

The main reason the US seems to want to be involved seems to be to avoid being left out. If the UK and France could take out Libya on their own, people might start asking if the US really needs to have a military an order of magnitude larger than the UK and French forces combined.

Our bloated giant Pentagon cannot allow our allies to engage in a kinetic war (i.e. shooting) without a major involvement, because if they do, it casts doubt on the raison d’être for us to spend more on our defense than the rest of the world combined.

So, not only does the fact that we are a military behemoth make us stay in places that we have never gone, it makes us go places we should never go, because to stay home when others go would put its continued support at risk.

So, We are Bombing Libya

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On our part, just cruise missiles launched at air defense installations, with the British and the French taking the lead, apparently hitting tanks, and perhaps artillery installations, with aid from the Italians and the Canadians. (The Canadians?!?!?! Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?!?!?)

On interesting thing is that the French may have initiated attacks before the rest of the allies had reached an agreement on plans:

The campaign began with French warplanes, which started their attacks even before the end of an emergency meeting among allied leaders in Paris. The officials, reacting to news that Colonel Qaddafi’s forces were attacking the rebel capital, Benghazi, despite international demands for a cease-fire, said they had no choice but to defend Libyan civilians and opposition forces.

But there were signs of disagreement among the allies in Paris. Some diplomats said that French insistence on the meeting had delayed military action against Colonel Qaddafi’s forces before they reached Benghazi, a charge that French officials denied.

This behavior makes me wonder if perhaps the French eagerness for military action may be an attempt by the tremendously unpopular Nicolas Sarkosy to boost his reelections chances, as Margaret Thatcher did in the early 1980s with the Falklands.

This all is further complicated by the fact that Libya is claiming that it is adhering to the UN mandated ceasefire.

No clue as to where the truth on all this is.

So, There’s a No-Fly Zone in Libya

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The UN Security Council just passed it.

So it’s war, by any other name.

I think that this is a bad idea, and whatever emerges at the other end, and my money is still on Qaddafi, the opposition will now lack legitimacy, as will a successor government.

Kevin Drum has an interesting take on this, which is that administration ambivalence on this actually led to the widespread support necessary for the Security Council resolution.

I’m not sure, but I feel that this won’t end well.

When one backs a revolution, one expects some say over the outcome, and looking at the history of that, (*cough* reinstating the Pshaw of Iran, which lead to the current theocracy *cough*) it never ends well.

I Generally, Don’t Approve of Armchair Generals…

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But with all the inside Beltway pukes, (and yes, I do mean you, John Kerry) calling for aggressive air strikes in Libya under the fig leaf of a “no fly zone”, I think that I need to put on my incredibly incompetent tactician cap, and kick some metaphorical butt.

First, I think that a lot of people think that a “No Fly Zone” is where we wave some sort of magic wand, and fly planes over hostile territory to keep the other guy from flying his planes.

It’s a lot more involved.

In order to enforce a no fly zone, you have to be able to fly over hostile territory with impunity, which involves:

  • Thoroughly disabling every SAM site in the country.  (Bombing)
  • Thoroughly disabling every AAA site in the country.  (More bombing)
  • Crippling the command and control systems (yet more bombing, and likely boots on the ground to confirm this).
  • Bombing all the air fields, and pretty much anywhere that an attack helicopter might be based.

A no fly zone is invasion-lite.

OK, so, if you want to support the anti-Gaddafi forces, what do you do, if you don’t want to go Nixon’s secret bombing of Cambodia on his ass?

Well, here is where I put on my stupid hat, and make a military suggestion.

What you do, is that you give the insurgents some sort of aid that:

  • Has a low marginal cost.
  • Cannot be transferred to entities who are hostile to the US (see Stinger missiles given to the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan)
  • Is highly perishable, so that you can withdraw it and get them to stop when you want it to stop.

The thing is that there IS something that fulfills all this criteria:  Accurate real-time tactical intelligence.

Between satellites, long range radars on AWACS and E-2Cs, and signals intelligence (Sigint), we could be giving warnings of things like air-strikes, and the specific order of battle of Gaddafi’s forces.

Ironically, about a decade ago, the US Army thought that this sort of situational awareness would allow them to largely dispense with armor on their vehicles, which brought forth the abortive FCS, but the Army, as is the rest of the Pentagon, is constrained by a need to have zero casualties, while the rebels in Libya are under no such artificial constraint.

They just need to die less than their opponents.

Then again, my military experience would fit in a thimble with room to spare.

Libya is Burning

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I don’t have much to add, so I’ll point you to the Guardian.

It’s clearly an end game:

  • Two pilots were ordered to bomb protesters, and defected to Malta.
  • Border guards are abandoning their posts.
  • Reports of naval fire and aerial bombardment of some neighborhoods in Tripoli.
  • Bizarre statements from Qaddafi and his son(s).

 This is not going to be pretty, but it is completely outside of my intellectual strengths, such as they are.

Unfortunately, unlike Egypt, there are not a lot of press on the ground, so what is coming out is sketchy.

A Non-Surprise About the Most Over Rated Man in America

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When Colin Powell spewed his lies about Saddam Hussein and weapons of mass destruction, his staff had already warned him that the information was complete crap.

In one case, he personally made up dialog that did not exist, and in others, he used reports that flagged the data as “Weak” and “not credible”.

Not a surprise.

Here is hoping that at some point in the not-too-distant future, Powell’s reputation experiences the same sort of reevaluation that Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan has.

U.S. Vetoes UN Resolution On Settlements

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This is rather unsurprising.

I favor a 2 state solution, one along the other ethnic separations out there, which means parts of pre-1967 Israel will become a part of a future Palestinian state, because at it’s core what is going is is negotiations over ethnic land divisions, and under those terms, some areas near the West Bank, and parts of the Galilee which are overwhelmingly Arab, would necessarily move in that direction.

Whether or not this sort of separation occurs, full rights should be extended to non-Jews, by which I mean something along the lines of the US civil rights act, prohibiting discrimination on the basis of ethnicity.

Another full right that should be extended to the non Jewish (and non Druze) population in Israel is conscription: As it stands now Arabs are not required to serve, which, among other things, prevents the formation of social ties that normally occur during mandatory service, and which frequently help in later life. (aka “Old school ties).

As to the veto, I am increasingly of the opinion that any foreign involvement in the diplomacy between the Palestinian government and Israel is counter-productive, because it leads the negotiators to spend too much time playing to outside entities, whether it be the US, UN, EU, or Arab governments, and not enough dealing with each other.

One reality here that needs to be accepted is that at some point in the next few decades, Hamas will win an election (they already have) and take power (they weren’t allowed to after the election).

This may be scary, but the current principals in this matter need to suck it up and accept reality.

Because It Worked So Well in Egypt

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Libya has cuts off the Internet:

Internet service has been cut off in Libya for a second consecutive day as protesters step up demonstrations against longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi, a U.S. company that monitors Internet traffic said on Saturday.

Massachusetts-based Arbor Networks said data collected from 30 Internet providers around the world showed that online traffic in and out of Libya was disconnected abruptly at 7:15 p.m. EST on Friday after two partial interruptions earlier that day.

I kind of figured that Bahrain would go first, because it’s a predominantly Shia country ruled by a Sunni king, but I may have been wrong.

Mubarak Flees Cairo, Soon to Go to R’Lyeh* Riyadh

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Well, it looks like something between a popular uprising and a military coup just took place in Egypt, as Hosni Mubarak has resigned as President and left the capital:

Egypt erupted in a joyous celebration of the power of a long repressed people on Friday as President Hosni Mubarak resigned his post and ceded control to the military, ending his nearly 30 years of autocratic rule.

Shouts of “God is Great” competed with fireworks and car horns around Cairo after Mr. Mubarak’s vice president and longtime intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, announced during evening prayers that Mr. Mubarak had passed all authority to a council of military leaders, bowing to a historic popular uprising that has transformed politics in Egypt and around the Arab world.

Protesters hugged and cheered and shouted, “Egypt is free!” and “You’re an Egyptian, lift your head.”

“He’s finally off our throats,” said one protester, Muhammad Insheemy. “Soon, we will bring someone good.”

The departure of the 82-year-old Mr. Mubarak, at least initially to his coastal resort home in Sharm el-Sheik, was a pivotal turn in a nearly three-week revolt that has upended one of the Arab’s world’s most enduring dictatorships. The popular protests — peaceful and resilient despite numerous efforts by Mr. Mubarak’s legendary security apparatus to suppress them — ultimately deposed an ally of the United States who has been instrumental in helping to carry out American policy in the region for decades.

The country is now being run by a “council of military leaders,” but they have made strong assertions that they will return the country to civilian rule, and something resembling a representative democracy, in a timely manner, but, there have been lots of promises throughout the Arab world about reform of governance, and they generally have not panned out.

Time will tell, I guess.

*“Ph’nglui mglw’nafh Cthulhu R’lyeh wgah’nagl fhtagn,” (In his house at R’lyeh dead Cthulhu waits dreaming) as the fictional “Mad Arab”†, Abdul Alhazred, would say.
†And yes, I appreciate the irony of referring to the “Mad Arab” in the context of the overthrow of an Arab despot.

The Football is Pulled Away Again…

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Who knew that Lucy Van Pelt was an 82 Year Old Egyptian President?

In a move that stunned observers, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak refused to step down, and instead delegated his powers to his VP, Omar Suleiman, who is also doing duty of the state intelligence services, which, unsurprisingly, does not bode well for the prospects of democratic reform.

Note here that he did not “transfer” his authority, he “delegated” it, which means that he can take the powers back whenever he wants:

President Hosni Mubarak told the Egyptian people on Thursday that he would delegate authority to Vice President Omar Suleiman but that he would not resign, enraging hundreds of thousands gathered to hail his departure and setting in motion a volatile new stage in the three-week uprising.

The declaration by Mr. Mubarak that he would remain president appeared to signal a dangerous escalation in one of the largest popular revolts in Egypt’s history, and some protesters warned that weeks of peaceful rallies might give way to violence as early as Friday.

The 17-minute speech itself underlined a seemingly unbridgeable gap between ruler and ruled in Egypt: Mr. Mubarak, in paternalistic tones, talked in great detail about changes he planned to make to Egypt’s autocratic Constitution, while crowds in Tahrir Square, with bewilderment and anger, demanded that he step down.

Mr. Mubarak seemed oblivious. “It’s not about me,” he said in his address. When he was done, crowds in Cairo waved the bottoms of their shoes in the air, a gesture intended to convey disgust, and shouted, “Leave! Leave!”

This is not going to end well.

More Revolving Door Cronyism at the Obama Administration

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Robert Fisk of The Independent explains why Frank Wisner, Obama’s envoy to Cairo, told reporters that it was important for Mubarak to remain in power for some time, which surprised the reporters as well as the White House, which said that Mr. Wisner was speaking solely on his own behalf.

That’s not really true though. He was speaking on behalf of his employer, the law firm of Patton Boggs, which happens to represents Hosni Mubarak in the United States:

The US State Department and Mr Wisner himself have now both claimed that his remarks were made in a “personal capacity”. But there is nothing “personal” about Mr Wisner’s connections with the litigation firm Patton Boggs, which openly boasts that it advises “the Egyptian military, the Egyptian Economic Development Agency, and has handled arbitrations and litigation on the [Mubarak] government’s behalf in Europe and the US”. Oddly, not a single journalist raised this extraordinary connection with US government officials – nor the blatant conflict of interest it appears to represent.

Mr Wisner is a retired State Department 36-year career diplomat – he served as US ambassador to Egypt, Zambia, the Philippines and India under eight American presidents. In other words, he was not a political appointee. But it is inconceivable Hillary Clinton did not know of his employment by a company that works for the very dictator which Mr Wisner now defends in the face of a massive democratic opposition in Egypt.

So why on earth was he sent to talk to Mubarak, who is in effect a client of Mr Wisner’s current employers?

The only explanation I can see is that rather than “changing the culture of Washington,” it has been subsumed by it.

The Bush and His Evil Minions™ took incompetent self-dealing to new heights, but this appears to be yet ANOTHER area, like torture, illegal wiretaps, etc. where the Obama administration is determined to ape his ape-like predecessor.

Mubarak Announces Retirement at End of Term

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The protestors want him to leave both his office, and the country, immediately:

Egyptians wholeheartedly rejected President Hosni Mubarak’s announcement Tuesday evening that he will not run for reelection in September, continuing to demand that he step down immediately.

A roar of anger went up from the thousands of people in central Cairo’s Tahrir Square even before the president had finished his address, offering an immediate answer to an unprecedented offer from an autocrat who has ruled for almost 30 years with few concession to the people. They shook their shoes at a large screen where the president’s image was broadcast, screaming “Get out! Get out!”

“I was angry, but now I am enraged,” said Abdullah Rawaq, shouting to be heard amid a crowd chanting: “He must go! We will not go!

Somehow, I do not think that it is likely that Mubarak will get either his 8 months or his wish to stay in Egypt.

A bit of doggerel about this follows the break, apologies to Theodore Geisel and Art Buchwald.

“Hosni Sayyid Mubarak will you please go now!
The time has come.
The time has come.
The time is now.
Just go.
Go.
Go!
I don’t care how.
You can go by foot.
You can go by cow.
Hosni Sayyid Mubarak will you please go now!
You can go on skates.
You can go on skis.
You can go in a hat.
But
Please go.
Please!
I don’t care.
You can go
By bike.
You can go
On a Zike-Bike
If you like.
If you like
You can go
In an old blue shoe.
Just go, go, GO!
Please do, do, do, DO!
Hosni Sayyid Mubarak
I don’t care how.
Hosni Sayyid Mubarak
Will you please
GO NOW!
You can go on stilts.
You can go by fish.
You can go in a Crunk-Car
If you wish.
If you wish
You may go
By lion’s tale.
Or stamp yourself
And go by mail.
Hosni Sayyid Mubarak
Don’t you know
The time has come
To go, go, GO!
Get on your way!
Please Hosni M.!
You might like going in a Zumble-Zay.
You can go by balloon . . .
Or broomstick.
Or
You can go by camel
In a bureau drawer.
You can go by bumble-boat
. . . or jet.
I don’t care how you go.
Just get!
Hosni Sayyid Mubarak!
I don’t care how.
Hosni Sayyid Mubarak
Will you please
GO NOW!
I said
GO
And
GO
I meant . . .
The time had come
So . . .
HOSNI WENT.”

Egypt Is Heading ……… Somewhere

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The protests have gotten big enough that the professional, and pampered, state security forces, have run out of resources, and the military has been sent in, but the military is taking a remarkably hands off stance regarding the protesters.

What is going on is that the police, and other civilian state security forces are volunteer, and favored by the current regime, and are invested in it, while the military is largely conscript, all Egyptian males serve, and so they aren’t invested in their position in the current regime.

It’s a pretty good reason to support a return to the draft in the good old USA, if you ask me.

In any case, the opposition has started to become more organized, and has decided on Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei will head whatever negotiations with the Mubarak government.

Note that this has occurred despite the fact that the regime managed to almost completely shut off Internet access for the country, or maybe it was because the Egyptians are upset about being unable to watch Justin Beiber videos on Youtube, but somehow I think that the Egyptians taking to the street are a bit less shallow than that.

Yes, What is Going On in Egypt is a Big Deal

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Received via email

This could just kind of fizzle out, like 1848 did in Europe, but this is a rather graphic illustration of the breadth and scope of the protests.

Note that there are a number of factors that make this much more significant than Tunisia:

  • Unlike Tunisia, the population is almost exclusively, and strongly Arab (Tunisia has significant Berber influences).
  • Egypt has the largest population of any Arab nation in the world, having almost 30% of the world’s Arab population.
  • It has been a center of Arab nationalism and Islamic thought for hundreds of years.

Even in the best case, I don’t imagine that this will result  in the spontaneous creation of a modern democracy with civil rights, but I do think that any changes would be an improvement over the current corrupt and brutal status quo.

There is a Reason that I Declared them “They Who Must Not Be Named”

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But that hasn’t stopped the Voice of American from recruiting them to try and pacify angry people in the Middle East:

In what is evidently an attempt to mitigate the damage caused by Koran-burning pastors, the US government will attempt to dissuade outraged citizens of the Middle East from joining al-Qaeda by beaming Paris Hilton, Kim Kardashian and Britney Spears across the Voice of America’s airwaves.

According to Press Gazette, Splash News and Pictures will provide a half-hour weekly show packed with meaty celebutardiness, aimed at winning the hearts and minds of those still undecided whether Holy War or Hollywood is the way to go.

First, I will note that if VoA is doing this, the Arab world is going to try and beat us to death with their bare hands.

Second, I have not yet put Kim Kardashian on my list of They Who Must Not Be Named, but ………

Wait for it ………

Wait for it ………

Wait for it ………

She is now.

Great googly moogley.