Category: Middle East

This is Why You Talk With Adversaries, and Keep Your Word

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The Iranians have put it very clearly, they do not consider the United States, or at least the US as led by Bush and His Evil Minions™ to be a reliable negotiating partner. I agree with them Bush cannot be trusted to enter into good faith negotiations.

What’s more, this is a reasonable, and rational position.

“We don’t trust the United States,” he told McClatchy Newspapers after the IAEA Board of Governors finished its latest round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. “We could suspend nuclear enrichment. We did it before for two and half years. But it wasn’t enough then, and wouldn’t be enough now. We will not suspend enrichment again because there is no end to what the United States will demand.”

I agree with Matthew Yglesias’s assesment, that it makes no sense to try to appease religious fanatics, so any confidence building measure is meaningless when the current US government simply cannot be trusted.

Conversational Hebrew

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This little tidbit from the times gives one a pretty good idea how people think what they really think about Condoleeza Rice:

The long buildup to Annapolis, together with Ms. Rice’s many trips to the region, have given birth to a new verb in Israeli government circles: “lecondel,” meaning, to come and go for meetings that produce few results. The word is based on Ms. Rice’s first name.

This misadministration still shocks me with its incompetence.

Possible Resolutions to the Conflict Involving Israel

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Here is another posting, cleaned up a bit, of mine from a Yahoo group that I’m on called JOINint*
Someone asked a question, and her is my rather pessimistic answer:

Please, someone, anyone, show me how we can save Israel AND make a true and lasting peace with our cousins, the Arabs?

There are two solutions that would currently work work:

  • The liquidation of the state of Israel.
  • The ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians in areas under Israeli control.

To my mind, neither are acceptable, so the question is how one finds a solution that does not involve either,

Given the current state of affairs, I do not see any positive developments.

However, the primary driver on this issue is oil, and this will be changing. Current predictions see Iran no longer exporting oil in less than 30 years, and Saudi Arabia production may very well have already peaked.

If the center of oil production moves elsewhere, and/or the world economy transitions from an oil economy, which I see as happening sooner rather than later, the interest in appeasing Arab sensibilities vanishes.

Much of this conflict is driven by the perception in the Palestinian community that time is on their side by virtue of both demographics and by what they see as significant unequivocal international support for their rights, look at your average vote in the General Assembly of the UN, and when their perception changes, a settlement will come.

Basically, when the Arabs run out of oil, no one will care about them, most of their support in the international arena has been bought in some form or another, and when the House of Saud in particular, and the Arab world in general runs out of this currency, the interest in their concerns will vanish.

Hopefully, in this transition/decline, a settlement can be reached, because if not, I see the ethnic cleansing of the disputed territories as a distinct possibility only a bit after that.

One thing that goes unremarked on is that the views of Israeli society are changing.

In 1980, if one had been at a party, and suggested ethnic cleansing Arabs, people would have looked at you like you had taken a dump in the punch bowl, and you would never have been invited back.

Today, there would doubtless be a ferocious discussion/argument, but the discussion of this tactic has become socially acceptable. This is a change in attitude that is profoundly troubling.

Note that any prediction of the future is at best imprecise. I do not see the House of Saud surviving, and in its fall there are any number of outcomes, both bad and good, that are beyond anyone’s power to predict.

Certainly, this will result in a movement of the center of Arab thought, probably back to Egypt. In the early 1900s, Cairo was the center of Arab and Islamic intellectual discourse, before Saudi basically prostituted the Cairo academics and intellectuals.

*Jewish Opinions, Ideas, and News, International It spun off from another group when it descended into right wing agitprop.

Why is Juan Cole So Dismissive the Kurds?

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Let me be clear, the issue of the Kurds is a thorny one. As what is arguably the largest ethnic group in the world without a nation, there is clearly a moral case to be made for statehood for some of the areas in which they live.

However, there is also a compelling counter argument to be made that any such arrangement, or process toward such an arrangement would be severely destabilizing to the region*.

Let me make this clear, this post is NOT about a solution to the “Kurdish Problem”†, though I do favor a homeland for the Kurds.

Rather it is a commentary on on the Bush administration’s foreign policy failures, and while I agree with its basic thesis, that the Bush Administration has ruined everything that it touched, I am concerned about the disdain that is shown regarding the Kurd and Kurdish nationalism.

I would note this paragraph comes to mind:

The Iraqi leadership, already presiding over a failed state, agonized at being caught in the crossfire. The Iraqi president, the avuncular Kurd Jalal Talabani, hypocritically condemned al-Assad for urging a foreign military invasion of an Arab country, even though he himself had supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Massoud Barzani, the pudgy turbaned leader of the Kurdistan Regional Authority, warned that his government would defend its citizens and not sit idly by if Turkish troops rolled through Kurdish cities in Iraq. On Sunday, the Iraqi Parliament, having been unable to agree on virtually any internal issue or enact any benchmark legislation, promptly passed a resolution condemning the Turkish Parliament.

(Emphasis mine)
Let me be clear, the basic facts of the situation are accurate. What struck me was that fact that these were the only people who had their motivations described (hypocritically condemned) or were described physically at all (the “avuncular Kurd Jalal Talabani” and “Massoud Barzani, the pudgy turbaned leader).”

This appears to be a conscious decision to diminish these figures. And I would note that whenever I read Juan Cole‡, it is the rule, rather than the exception to feel the same sense of disdain dripping from his keys as regards the Kurds.

*Truth be told, before Bush and His Evil Minions™ got their hands on US Middle East policy, I would have thought that it was impossible to make the region less stable, but they have exceeded my wildest expectations.
†Yes, I am aware of the historical reference being made.
‡Truth be told, I do not do so as often as I should, he knows his stuff.

Fatah Planting Bombs in Gaza????

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Three Hamas militants wounded in Gaza in a Gaza explosion, and not only does Israel deny involvement, but Hamas agrees that the IDF had nothing to do with it.

It could be Islamic Jihad, of course, but given the PLO’s record on both conventional and urban fighting, their military record implies that they are over matched by a mean little kid with a pea shooter, this seems more the work of the PLO, particularly Fatah.

It requires a significant investment in resources and planning, but very little risk to the perps.

No Syrian Nukes

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Some analysis on GlobalSecurity.org and Phoenix Woman’s blog do a pretty good job of evicerating the claims of nuclear weapons activity.

So, if it’s not nukes, what did Israel hit? It hit weapons destined to Hamas in Lebanon.

Why would they do this? To regain credibility after the debacle in Lebanon.

On to the debunking.

First, my analysis:

Syria is not even close to have the basic nuclear infrastructure that could begin to construct nuclear weapons infrastructure. They have little in the way of Uranium, no smelting facilities, no enrichment or other purification facilities, and very little of the human capital necessary.

Second, Phoenix Woman:

A 5 MW reactor is big. From the satellite photo, once can see that the Yongbyon site is 4500 x 2500 m, or roughly 2.5 mi x 1.5 mi. The reactor building is very roughly 250 x 450 m. It consumes massive amounts of fuel: 110 tons of spent fuel per year. John Pike’s GlocalSecurity thinks that the satellite imagery of a uranium enrichment facility might be missed. In my opinion, the large amount of ore required would not be, especially considering that Syria doesn’t have good ore sources (it does have a site which extracts uranium from phosphate at Homs, but the uranium is a contaminant; see Glocal Security below).

In other words, it’s just too damn big to hide from the very earliest stages of site preparation.

Third, GlobalSecurity.org:

“dramatic satellite imagery” – the types of activity associated with nuclear weapons development, particularly at the early stages of the program, are precisely the sorts of things that are not going to produce dramatic satellite imagery, which is why North Korea’s uranium program is so vexing for the United States.
“primarily from Israel” – the reliance on such liasion sourced intelligence that could not be independently verified was one of the central problems with the Iraq WMD intelligence failure, and either evidence is “primarily from Israel” [ie, HUMINT] or it is independtly knowable by the United States based on “dramatic satellite imagery” but it is difficult to comprehend how both statements could be true.
“restricted to a few senior officials” – this part of the story is designed to explain to other reporters why their sources are unable to confirm any of the details of this report
“arrival at the Syrian port of Tartus” – this is not a large facility, and this news story would have us believe that Israeli intelligence has intimate knowledge of unloading activities at this port, a collection capability that was willingly compromised here
“labeled as cement” — cement is normally transported as a bulk powder, and less frequently in recent decades in bags — neither form of transport would usefully conceal nuclear related components, and labeling some other means of transport [eg, standard 40-foot containters] as cement would be so patently false as to immediately draw suspicion to the shipment.
“on the Euphrates River, close to the Turkish border” — the implication, though not over assertion, is that over the course of three days Israeli intelligence was able to track the shipment as it travelled half-way across Syria, or that Israeli surveillance of Syria is so comprehensive that the shipment was detected upon arrival — either of which is very impressive and hard to believe.
“using it to extract uranium from phosphates” – Syria has a phosphate industry, which supports the production of fertilizer and phosphoric acid. Between 1996 and 2001 Syria operated a pilot plant at Homs for the purification of phosphoric acid, in order to remove the uranium contanmination so that the phosphoric acid could be used for food processing. This project was financed by the UN Developement Program, supported by the IAEA, and not bombed by Israel.

And if that is not enough, we have John “The Mustache of Doom” Bolton as one of the sources for the press.

On 16 September 2007 former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton said “it will be very unusual for Israel to conduct such a military operation inside Syria other (than) for a very high value target and certainly a Syrian effort in nuclear weapon area will qualify. … I think this is a clear message not only to Syria, this is a clear message to Iran as well that its continued efforts to acquire nuclear weapons are not going to go unanswered…” Bolton never claims direct knowledge of the facts of the matter, only that a strike against Syrian nuclear capabilities would be in the interest of Israel.

John Bolton has never let the truth stop him from making baseless accusations, but even HE is not willing to claim that there is a nuke facility.

George Bush Would Be Wetting His Pants

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Well, Vladimir Putin will be going to Iran, even though there is information indicating an assassination attempt may be in the offing.

Say what you will about Vladimir,but George Junior would refuse to go, and the right wing pundits would say how brave he was, lying on the ground in the fetal position sucking his thumb.

One interesting note, the attempt is supposed to bey by “suicide attackers”, and the Shia have not been doing suicide attacks. It’s more of a Sunni thing.

There are Sunnin in Iran, but they are typically not “Persian”, but Arab and other minorities, who are getting clandestine aid from the US (read Sy Hersh), so if this threat is real, and it could be an attempt by Putin to burnish his image with the Russian people, we would be in some way behind it, and Vladimir, ever the KGB agent knows this.

New York Times is Reporting that Israeli Air Strike Was On Nuclear Reactor

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OK, this has gone back and forth about half a dozen times now, but this is the current flavor of the day.

According to “U.S. and foreign officials who had access to the analysts’ intelligence reports”, the reactor was very similar to the DPRK’s graphite moderated reactor at Yongbyon.

Here are the two most significant quotes from the article:

Information on the raid has been under under tight wraps in both Washington and Israel, the newspaper said, restricted to a handful of officials, and Israeli media have been barred from publishing information about it.

But a senior Israeli official said the attack was meant to “re-establish the credibility of our deterrent power,” the Times said. Several U.S. officials told the paper the strike may also have been intended for the attention of Iran and its nuclear program.

I read this as saying that it was primarily intended to be a warning to Iran, but there is an unspoken subtext, that the Olmert government might have been motivated to make the strike, at least to a degree, for political considerations.

The proof will be in whether or not Olmert calls for snap elections soon.

The newspaper also reported that Vice President Dick Cheney and other hawkish members of the administration contended that the same intelligence that prompted Israel’s attack on the reactor strengthened the case for U.S. reconsideration of negotiations with North Korea over ending its nuclear program, as well as Washington’s diplomatic posture with Syria.

This means that the usual suspects among the Neocons are using this as an excuse to agitate for war with Syria (and possibly Iran) and to overturn the current deals with the DRPK.

One should recall that vb before building the reactor at Yongbyon, the DPRK had already located Uranium mines, begun mining, and had manufactured fuel, both unenriched and enriched. The presence of a reactor in Syria does not constitute a competent and self-sufficient nuclear program on its own.

What Happened in Syria?

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The New York Times is reporting that Dick Cheney, and his merry band of lunatics is maintaining that the DPRK was shipping nuclear technology to Syria, and Condi Rice and the State Department are maintaining there there is no conclusive evidence on which to act.

It’s clear that Israel felt that there was some sort of threat, but they are not talking. That being said, if there is a faceoff between those who are completely batsh$# insane and always wrong and those who are sometimes insane, and usually wrong, I’ll go with the latter.

Syria has no background in nuclear weapons technology, but I could see them getting improved chem/bio warheads from the DPRK, as they do have active programs there, at least on the chem side.

OK, Maybe I Was Wrong About the Nature of the Israeli Airstrike on Syria

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According to this ABC News report, the US requested, and got, a delay in the attack because they were concerned about the accuracy of the Israeli intelligence showing an ambitious nuclear facility, and possible repercussions.

I may have been wrong in my previous assessment that it was not a nuclear facility, but as the sources could for the ABC story could be political appointees, I still lean against it being a nuclear facility.

Simply put, Syria does not have the infrastructure to even begin any sort of nuclear weapons development.

As to the sourcing, it could be some mid-level intelligence professionals, or some politically appointed yahoo like John Bolton.

Schadenfreude: Palestinian Edition

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Well, it appears that both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas are are mired in accusing each other of adultery and homosexuality.

I have no doubt that some of these accusations are true. Heck, it’s likely that most of them are. In any large organization, you will find gay people.

Of course, the DVD mentioned makes it more amusing.

As to the Schadenfreude, it’s the sanctimony. Somehow, convincing a retarded kid to wear a bomb belt is moral, but sleeping with another man isn’t.

Excluding marital infidelity, this is not really about morality, it’s about religious hypocrisy, and the fact that the PA and Hamas are putting on their own little home grown versions of Tartuffe.

I find this amusing for the same reason that I found Jim Bakker’s peccadillos amusing.

H/t Jewlicious for the catch.

No Nuclear Weapons Technology in Syria

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Accordiong to Raw Story, the Israeli airstrike two weeks ago did not target a nuclear weapons facility, but was insteaddirected at a short range ballistic missile (SCUD type) missile depot. It was apparently brought on by a weapons handling accident in which chemical weapons were released, killing around 50 people.

It was thought to be an attempt to place chemical warheads on the missile.

Considering the paucity of the Syrian nuclear effort, one small research reactor that produces medical isotopes, one wonders who was spreading the rumor of nuclear weapons activity.

Saudis Appear To Drop Dollar Peg on Riyal

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The Saudis have been pegging the Riyal to the Dollar for years. One of the things that this requires is that the interest rates in the two countries remain the same, otherwise there are pressures for them to move relative to each other.
The Saudis have made it clear that they will not follow the recent Federal Reserve rate cuts.

This will place further downward pressure on the dollar, and make it more likely that other Arab oil Sheikdoms will follow suit. Kuwait actually preceded them on this action, breaking the peg in May.

What the Hell Were the Israeli Defense Forces Thinking???

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I came across this in Aviation Week’s “Washington Outlook” news sumary:

During last year’s fighting in Lebanon, the Syria listening post monitored private cell phone conversations from Israeli soldiers that gave Hezbollah enough information to locate and identify ground units even though Israeli military radios remained secure.

They let their soldiers go into battle wearing cell phones???? They let their soldiers use them?

What the hell were they thinking? Even if the phone is “off” you can turn it on remotely (it’s a method of bugging people).

They let their soldiers carry emitters that painted targets on their backs!!