Category: Nuclear Weapons

Boom

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The DPRK conducts a 3rd nuclear weapons test:

At the United Nations, the desire to impose ever harsher sanctions on North Korea to try to curb its development of nuclear arms and ballistic missiles has long stalled in the face of Chinese opposition — the standard chain of events playing out here again on Tuesday after North Korea said it had carried out its third nuclear test.

Security Council diplomats and the experts who track sanctions enforcement are quick to tick off the contents of a deeper toolbox that could be used to try to corral Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions.

They include banning specific, high-tech items used in the nuclear program like epoxy paste for centrifuges; limiting or outlawing some banking transactions; and a far more stringent inspection of ships bound to and from North Korea.

But the sanctions in place are almost exclusively focused on nuclear and ballistic missile activity.

The problem is that we have way too much posturing on both side.

They need to stop setting off nukes, and we need to make a formal exchange of ambassadors.

From the Department of Well, Duh

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It’s the truth, and it is something that our political elites refuse to say, which means that it is a good thing to say, but Glenn Greenwald’s observation that the real problem with Iran having the bomb is that it would prevent us attacking them on our whim:

Every now and then, they reveal the real reason: Iranian nuclear weapons would prevent the US from attacking Iran at will, and that is what is intolerable. The latest person to unwittingly reveal the real reason for viewing an Iranian nuclear capacity as unacceptable was GOP Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the US’s most reliable and bloodthirsty warmongers.

 On Monday, Graham spoke in North Augusta, South Carolina, and was asked about the way in which sanctions were harming ordinary Iranians. Ayman Hossam Fadel was present and recorded the exchange. Answering that question, Graham praised President Obama for threatening Iran with war over nuclear weapons, decreed that “the Iranian people should be willing to suffer now for a better future,” and then – invoking the trite neocon script that is hauled out whenever new wars are being justified – analogized Iranian nukes to Hitler in the 1930s. But in the middle of his answer, he explained the real reason Iranian nuclear weapons should be feared:

“They have two goals: one, regime survival. The best way for the regime surviving, in their mind, is having a nuclear weapon, because when you have a nuclear weapon, nobody attacks you.”

Graham added that the second regime goal is “influence”, that “people listen to you” when you have a nuclear weapon. In other words, we cannot let Iran acquire nuclear weapons because if they get them, we can no longer attack them when we want to and can no longer bully them in their own region.

Let me be clear here:  I do not want Iran to have nuclear weapons.  I also don’t want Israel to have nuclear weapons, or India, or Pakistan, or China, or the UK, or France, or Russia, or the United States of America.

The desire for a credible deterrent is a rational response to US hegemony:

Whatever one thinks of Iran, the signal the US has sent to the world is unmistakable: any rational government should acquire nuclear weapons. The Iranians undoubtedly watched the US treatment of two dictators who gave up their quest for nuclear weapons – Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi – and drew the only reasoned lesson: the only way a country can protect itself from US attack, other than full-scale obeisance, is to acquire nuclear weapons.

$10 Billion

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The program to extend the life of the B-61 nuclear bomb is looking to have a price tag in excess of $10 billion: (Paid subscription required)

In the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration, (NNSA), officials of nuclear weapons programs try to keep them out of the limelight. But extending the life of the B61 is attracting all kinds of unwanted attention.

The cost of the nuclear bomb has doubled, with estimates now projecting that the weapon designed to defend Europe could cost $10 billion. On top of the weapon’s ballooning price tag, the Air Force is working on a $1.2 billion tail kit program that adds a limited guidance capability to the bomb. And the arms control community is starting to buzz about the implications.
News about the B61’s cost growth and two-year schedule delay is gaining traction on Capitol Hill. The concern among lawmakers could have implications for the program and the NNSA that oversees the U.S. nuclear force.
B61 bombs are the oldest in the U.S. stockpile. They entered the force in the 1970s, and can be used on fighter jets and long-range bombers. The arsenal has five different versions, both strategic and tactical, focused on protecting NATO members.
The latest life-extension program (LEP) aims to extend their life , merging four of those variants, all with different-sized explosive capabilities, into the B61-12. The B61-12 would draw on the design of the smallest nuclear explosive, or yield, weapon. The administration says using one variant will save money, and the B61-12 weapon would add an advanced security system to prevent unauthorized access to the weapons.

Serious, $10 billion to standardize on one bomb variant, and $12.2 billion to give it a tail steering guidance system?

These numbers are f%$#ing nuts!

Just Lovely

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India is looking to start MIRVing its nuclear missiles:

Agni-V, India’s most powerful missile with a strike range of over 5,000 kms, is set to get substantially higher destruction capabilities with plans to equip it with multiple warheads.

“We are working in this area. It will take time for us to develop but our work is on,” DRDO Chief Dr V K Saraswat told the news agency when asked whether the agency is developing capabilities to produce a variant of Agni-V missile which can hit multiple targets.

Known as Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV), the missile would be capable of carrying multiple warheads to destroy several targets.

Asked about the plans in that regard, he said, “Basic vehicle (missile) will remain the same. The first three stages will also remain the same and only the kill vehicle or the payload delivery system will need changes.”

Terming it as a “force multiplier”, the DRDO chief said, “If I am able to do force multiplication with this… where I was using four missiles, I may use only one missile. So it becomes a force multiplier given the damage potential.”

It also destabilizes the the situation with Pakistan, because it allows multiple warheads to be taken out in a single strike.

Not good news.

More Adventures of People with Small Penises in the Pentagon

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The USAF is looking for a 2000 lb missile replacement for its 5000+ lb guided free-fall bombs for bunker busting and the like, to quote Shrek, I think that someone is compensating:

Penetrate faster, harder with new AFRL weapon

……………
An Air Force Research Laboratory fact sheet with a 2011 time-stamp for public release approval tells us that a 2,000lb-class weapon with 5,000lb-class penetration capability could be available within three years.
“Future fighters will be able to deliver bunker-busting capabilities currently associated with the bomber fleet,” the fact sheet says.
I found the fact sheet for the High Velocity Penetrating Weapon (HVPW) in the AFRL munitions directorate booth at the Air Warfare Symposium a few days ago. The document reveals the USAF has shifted its focus on next-generation penetrator technology on a couple of different levels.

The folks at the USAF do seem to spend a suspiciously large amount of time talking about “penetrators”, don’t they?

BTW, running the numbers, the kinetic energy of a 2500 kg system at 300 m/s (about 650 mi/h), is 112.5 MJ, so for a 1000 kg system, you would need a velocity of only (475 m/s) 1800 m/s km/h (1080 mi/hr) to get the same kinetic energy.
(added correction in red  D’oh!!!)

Good News on the Legislative Front Today

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The repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell was signed into law, the Senate passed the START arms control treaty, and a new food safety bill that gives the FDA the power to order recalls passed the house and is heading to the President’s desk.

I still don’t see any gazillion dimensional chess here, but it’s a good day.

BTW, since the bill gives the military fairly broad discretion in how the ban is phased in, I would take even money that separations from the military will be continuing into 2012, because Obama won’t push the military on this.

A Foreseeable Result of Pandering to the US Nuclear Industry

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Now that the US deal to sell nuclear technology to India is pretty much a done deal, the Chinese are selling nuclear power plants to Pakistan:

China is expected to formally announce the plans to build the 650-megawatt reactors in Punjab province at a meeting in New Zealand of the Nuclear Suppliers Group – the 46 countries that dominate and try to control the world’s atomic trade.

The US has already voiced its disapproval before the meeting, which starts today, and will try to forge a consensus on updating the rules designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

US officials say that the plan requires special exemption from the NSG, [Nuclear Suppliers Group] which China joined in 2004, as Pakistan has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and could, therefore, divert some technology to its nuclear weapons program or to another country.

China and Pakistan disagree, pointing out that the US set a precedent by sealing a deal to sell civilian nuclear fuel and technology to India in 2006, even though Delhi had yet to sign the treaty.

That someone would sell nuclear reactors to the Pakistanis in response to the US making a joke of the NNPT was pretty much a done deal, and a predictable consequence of this decision.

I made note of this some time ago, and when my predictions prove true, it implies a level of blatantly obvious that buggers the mind.

The original deal with India was all about Bush and His Evil Minions™ wanting to reward their friends in the US domestic nuclear power industry, US interests be damned, and the consequences are potentially disastrous.

We’ll probably see a few more blips on Isao Hashimoto’s animations.

Unbelievably F%$#ing Stupid

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Let’s look at the targets and paths, shall we?


Pakistan


North Korea


Iran

Well, we now have SecDef Robert Gates saying that the U.S. has conventionally ballistic missiles in deployment:

Responding to a question from NBC’s David Gregory on the ability to deter nuclear armed rogue states, Gates said: “We have, in addition to the nuclear deterrent today, a couple of things we didn’t have in the Soviet days… And we have prompt global strike affording us some conventional alternatives on long-range missiles that we didn’t have before.”

This is f%$#ing insane.

Incoming ballistic missiles, whether with nuclear, conventional explosive, or kinetic warheads, all look the same from launch until the moment of impact, and so are very likely to trigger a nuclear counterstrike.

I’m with Noah Shachtman on this one:

The Obama administration is poised to take up one of the more dangerous and hare-brained schemes of the Rumsfeld-era Pentagon. The New York Times is reporting that the Defense Department is once again looking to equip intercontinental ballistic missiles with conventional warheads. The missiles could then, in theory, destroy fleeing targets a half a world away — a no-notice “bolt from the blue,” striking in a matter of hours. There’s just one teeny-tiny problem: the launches could very well start World War III.

………

The Pentagon mumbled all kinds of assurances that Beijing or Moscow would never, ever, never misinterpret one kind of ICBM for the other. But the core of their argument essentially came down to this: Trust us, Vlad Putin! That ballistic missile we just launched in your direction isn’t nuclear. We swear!

Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld couldn’t even muster that coherent of a defense. [Though the juxtaposition of, “Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld” and, “Coherent,” is generally a losing battle anyway.]

“Everyone in the world would know that [the missile] was conventional,” he said in a press conference, “after it hit within 30 minutes.”

(emphasis mine)

So, you will know after a missile hits the target whether or not it is a decapitating nuclear strike aimed at you.

Somehow, this is not reassuring, particularly since if we have a tool like this, we would likely use it on an at least annual basis.

The Ever Reliable Joseph Lieberman

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Remember when I said that Joe Lieberman would be preening to get his face on the Teevee with regard to the new START Treaty?

Well, I was right. He is now calling for what appears to be a massive buildup in European missile defenses and a his desire for an unprovoked nuclear strike on Iran as a condition for his support:

Appearing on “Fox News Sunday,” [big shocker there] the Connecticut Independent suggested that he himself would oppose ratification of the START II Treaty that Obama signed in Prague this past week, in part because, he reasoned, the language left America vulnerable to a nuclear Iran.

“I don’t believe that there will be 67 votes to ratify the treaty unless the administration does two things,” Lieberman said. “First: commit to modernize our nuclear stockpile, so as we have less nuclear weapons we know that they are capable if, God forbid, we need them. And secondly, to make absolutely clear that the statements by Russian president [Dmitry] Medvedev at the signing in program, that seemed to suggest that if we continue to build ballistic missile defense in Europe they may pull out of this treaty, is just not acceptable to us. We need that defense to protect our allies and ourselves from Iran.”

Basically, Lieberman is saying that unless Obama threatens Iran with nuclear attack, and promises to build up the ill-conceived European missile defense system, he’ll vote no.

Yes, he’s with on everything but Iraq, thanks for keeping him in the tent and pissing in, Harry and Barack.

This is all about Joe Lieberman getting his ego stroked, and the solution to this problem is to make it clear that there will be consequences if he f%$#s with this, not to stroke his ego: that only makes him worse.

Here is hoping that he gets caught buggering an underage hamster and will be forced to resign.

This is a Big Deal

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The US and Russia have signed a treaty calling for a 30% reduction of their respective nuclear arsenals.

This is a very positive development, though it is more timid that I would have liked.

Of course, it still needs a ⅔ vote in the Senate to be approved, and Republican Mike DeMint seems to be determined to be the turd in the punch bowl, and attempt to extract promises for an extensive missile defense installation in Europe, which the Russians consider a deal breaker.

Pretty much everyone who isn’t tied to Bush/Cheney, of both parties, find this a good deal, but considering the fact that many Congressional Republicans sold their souls, and their testicles, to the Bush/Cheney agenda some years back, it should get interesting.

Also, I predict that Joe “Shanda before the Goyim” Lieberman will speak forcefully about his deep concerns regarding the treaty, in the hope of getting lots of face time on the teevee.

Russia’s Adopts Nuclear First Strike Policy

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While worrisome, it represents a reversal of the Soviet/Russian “no first strike” policy adopted in the 1980s, but it should be noted that this new policy will not will be effectively identical to that of the US, which has repudiated calls for it to take a “no first strike” policies since the 1980s.

It’s nothing to tear one’s hair out about, unless you are Georgian President Saakashvili, where it might be seen as a shot across the bow towards NATO involvement in the region….But then again, he doesn’t tear out his hair, he chews on his tie.

“In situations critical for national security, a preventive nuclear strike against the aggressor is not ruled out,” he said.

The section of Russia’s military doctrine about the opportunity to use nuclear weapons was formulated to preserve the status of a nuclear power for the Russian Federation. The document states that Russia can apply nuclear deterrence against potential enemies to prevent aggression against Russia and its allies.

I think that the video below puts everything in decent perspective: