Category: Nuclear Weapons

Israeli FM Minimizes Threat of Iranian Nukes

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It turns out that a few months agoForeign Minister Tzipi Livni said that Iranian nuclear weapons do not pose an existential threat to Israel. The article also reports that former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy has similar views.

This is no surprise. Given that any Iranian action would inevitably result in a devastating Israeli counterstrike, some of which would be submarine bases, and hence secure from a first strike, we would be at mutually assured destruction, which worked between the US and the USSR for years.

Additionally, considering the Iranians as Persian, rather than Arab, it would be unusual to expect them to take actions that would result in the destruction of their culture in order to benefit an what is largely an Arab agenda.

There is also an insight into Israeli politics, specifically how Kadima would look to hold onto power with Ariel Sharon:

Livni also criticized the exaggerated use that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is making of the issue of the Iranian bomb, claiming that he is attempting to rally the public around him by playing on its most basic fears.

I would be very surprised if Kadima were above 3rd place in votes next elections, and I would not be surprised if the losses were stunning. It really is Ariel Sharon’s vanity party, and he is now gone.

OK, Maybe I Was Wrong About the Nature of the Israeli Airstrike on Syria

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According to this ABC News report, the US requested, and got, a delay in the attack because they were concerned about the accuracy of the Israeli intelligence showing an ambitious nuclear facility, and possible repercussions.

I may have been wrong in my previous assessment that it was not a nuclear facility, but as the sources could for the ABC story could be political appointees, I still lean against it being a nuclear facility.

Simply put, Syria does not have the infrastructure to even begin any sort of nuclear weapons development.

As to the sourcing, it could be some mid-level intelligence professionals, or some politically appointed yahoo like John Bolton.

More Confirmation of Preparation for Nuclear Strike on Iran

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This is a followup to my earlier post on this matter.

B-52 Nukes Headed for Iran: Air Force refused to fly weapons to Middle East theater
By Wayne Madsen
Sept. 24, 2007
Author’s website

WMR has learned from U.S. and foreign intelligence sources that the B-52 transporting six stealth AGM-129 Advanced Cruise Missiles, each armed with a W-80-1 nuclear warhead, on August 30, were destined for the Middle East via Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana.

However, elements of the Air Force, supported by U.S. intelligence agency personnel, successfully revealed the ultimate destination of the nuclear weapons and the mission was aborted due to internal opposition within the Air Force and U.S. Intelligence Community.

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A quick google of Wayne Madsen seems to indicate that he’s a bit out there, so if anyone can provide me information as to his reliability, it would be appreciated.

Bush Intends to Use Nuclear Weapons Against Iran

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Read Larry Johnson’s analysis:

  • B-52s deploying to Barksdale is not unusual.
  • The only time a plane has nukes on it is when it’s on alert, or it’s tasked to move it to a specific site.
  • Barksdale AFB is a staging base for the Middle East.
  • Someone on the inside obviously leaked the information, as mishaps with nukes are kept WELL under cover until well after they are resolved.
    • Why would someone leak this if it were an honest accident?

Mr. Johnson is far more circumspect that I am. The Bush admin not only has plans for a nuclear strike on Iran, it is their preferred tactic.

Nukes in South Asia

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Some more updates on how the Bush administration is making what is currently the worst threat to global security even worse by helping India increase its arsenal, with the obvious consequence of the almost failed state of Pakistan following suit.

First, it turns out that Pakistan is going with mobile launch systems, which are more likely to fall into terrorist hands, and India is working on technologies to take out buried facilities.

Lovely arms race there, and Bush is fanning the flames so that American nuclear companies can make a few bucks.

Nuke Worries?

Then we have a “a broad spectrum of political parties calls on the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to scrap the deal, saying it limits the country’s sovereignty in energy and foreign policy matters“.

Basically, Bush is winking at India’s nuclear weapons program, but it’s not enough for the more bellicose and nationalistic members of India’s body politic.

Delightful.

Bulava Missile Not Ready For Mass Production : Missiles and Bombs : Defense News Air Force Army Navy News

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I think that there is some misunderstanding about Russian weapons development, as shown by the following story about the failures in the Bulava-MLBM.

The missile has failed 4 of its first 6 test flights, but this means something very different than it would in a US missile development program.

Simply put, the Soviets, and later the Russians, use missile tests to find design flaws and verify performance, while the western nations typically use tests to verify theoretical analysis.

While the testing protocol is different from previous Russian SLBMs, there have been no ground tests, as it is an adaptation of a ground based system, the test-fail-fix strategy continues.

The Biggest Threat to US and Israeli Security, Revisited

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Here’s another story on the disastrous nuclear deal that the Bush administration has cut with India.

Money quote:

India’s leftist parties object strongly to the accord. They say it undermines the country’s sovereignty and its right to conduct nuclear tests. They insist the government stall negotiations, scheduled with the International Atomic Energy Agency and others, until their objections are met.

So, what are the consequences of this deal?

  • India’s nuclear weapons program at best continues at the current pace.
    • Most likely scenario: this frees up resources from civilian nuclear power to go into the weapons program.
    • Almost as likely scenario: Civilian resources are hijacked to serve the military program.
  • Pakistan accelerates its nuclear program in response.
    • Pakistan’s state security apparatus is thoroughly infiltrated by Islamists and supporters of the Taliban.
    • Pakistan is very close to a failed stated, with the northern areas not under governmental control, a ruler installed by coup, civil society opposing the current government, and a large segment of the population supporting a Wahabi theocracy.
    • In the event of an Islamist takeover, it is likely that nuclear materials will be under the control of Islamists, who would seriously consider using them against the US and Israel.

This is quite literally a bigger blunder than invading Iraq.

Brian Beutler Discovers Journalism Still Exists.

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Brian Beutler found soome actual journalism the other day. He found an Agence France Presse story that not only says that Bush is not telling the truth, but it’s the lede.

Bush levels dubious Iran nuclear arms charge

Mon Aug 6, 5:18 PM ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) – US President George W. Bush charged Monday that Iran has openly declared that it seeks nuclear weapons — an inaccurate accusation at a time of sharp tensions between Washington and Tehran.

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I’m not sure whether I should be heartened that this got reported and was in the first para, or whether I should be depressed because I find this remarkable.

Musharraf’s Days are Numbered

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There are now reports that Musharraf will declare a state of emergency.

This is about his attempt to delay elections, as his only remaining constituency is the army.

His negotiations with Benazir Bhutto have fallen through, the Supreme Court has reinstalled its chief justice and is reviewing the request of his ousted predecessor Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan.

Considering Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and its descent into failing state status, this is of concern.

Glenn Greenwald is 100% Correct

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He says America is plagued by a self-anointed, highly influential, and insular so-called Foreign Policy Community which spans both political parties, and this assesment is absolutely correct.

I’m not sold on Obama. I’m leaning towards Edwards in fact, but his statement that using a nuclear weapon to take out one individual, and in the process taking out a whole city, is counterproductive and ….well …. insane…is spot on.

Glenn Greenwald’s point about the general uselessness of the Washington foreign policy establishment is correct.

My only quibble is that it should not be limited to the foreign policy establishment.

Bush Flouts Nuclear Anti-Proliferation Laws

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The single most likely place on earth, and George W. Bush is handing nuclear technology to the Indian government so that he can throw some money toward some of his contributors.

Didn’t we invade Iraq on the suspicion that Saddam was doing what George Bush is doing now?

Let’s see:

  • They are refusing to release the text of the agreement.
  • India still refuses to sign the NNPT.
  • The agreement is vague enough that the Indians claim no restrictions on nuclear weapons.
  • Bush added a signing statement telling congress to go pound sand.

When do we invade the white house with the 82nd Airborne?

Seriously, what has Bush not screwed up beyond all recognition in the past 6+ years?

Pervez Musharraf, Benazir Bhutto Met in Secret

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I’m not sure what to make of this news, but the fact that Musharraf and Bhutto have met in secret is significant.

I think that more than anything else, it is an indication of how profoundly weak Pres. Musharraf has become.

Pakistan, due to extensive meddling in the area by the US and USSR, have created a nuclear armed entity that is in many ways close to a failed state where government fails to reach into much of the country, particularly the oft mentioned “tribal areas”.

Google Earth Pics of Chinese Boomer

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The FAS has some pictures of the New Chinese SSBN at dock.

This was (note water mark) right off of Google.

22 years ago, Samuel Loring Morison was sent to jail for passing information almost identical to this to Jane’s Defense Weekly.

As to Mr. Morison. I believe he was properly convicted. His claims to want to publicize this notwithstanding, he was using classified information to get a job, and to get raises from Jane’s.

That’s why he leaked them, and I’m still conflicted about Clinton’s pardon of him. He deserved to go to jail, but the use of the Espionage act, which is a bad law to begin with, is troubling.

NKorea’s Kim indicates it will disarm nuclear weapons : Nuclear Weapons : Defense News Air Force Army Navy News

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Funny that. Once the US stopped calling the DPRK c***s*ck*rs, and stopped calling for regime change, and stopped reneging on deals, they are willing to talk.

These people really do believe that the US is planning to take over the country, and doing things like cutting an agreement one day, and reneging on it the next, as with the frozen money, only reinforces this paranoia.

Go figure.

NKorea’s Kim indicates it will disarm nuclear weapons

BEIJING (AFP): North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il indicated on Tuesday that he was ready to begin dismantling his country’s nuclear weapons, China’s official news agency reported.

In rare conciliatory remarks the leader of the communist state raised hopes that a stalled nuclear pact will finally be realised.

“Recently some signs of easing on the Korean peninsula have appeared,” Kim was quoted by the Xinhua news agency as saying.

“All sides should implement the initial actions (of a six-nation pact on eradicating North Korea’s nuclear capabilities)”, he said.

The comments, made during a meeting with visiting Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi, will strengthen hopes that the North will disarm.

Under the agreement struck in February, Pyongyang pledged to scrap its nuclear programmes in exchange for energy aid and various diplomatic incentives.

But implementation has been stalled by a financial dispute over millions of dollars of North Korean funds frozen in a Macau bank due to US sanctions.

That obstacle was removed last week when the last of the funds were returned to Pyongyang.

In another hopeful sign, diplomatic sources in Berlin said on Tuesday that North Korea has agreed to broad cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog to close its main nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, the first step in the deal.

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UN Finds No WMDs in Iraq, Closes Up Shop.

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We’ve known that Iraq had no WMDs since before the invasion.

Took the UN 4 years to acknowledge this, though.

UN Closes Iraq Weapons Inspection Unit

UNITED NATIONS: The U.N. Security Council has closed down the agency charged with monitoring Saddam Hussein’s illicit weapons programs.

Fourteen of the 15 Security Council members voted to immediately abolish the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Committee, known as UNMOVIC. The 15th member, Russia, abstained.

Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, objected that the inspectors had not fulfilled their mandate of officially certifying that Iraq, at present, has no weapons of mass destruction. But he said Russia is willing to accepts that UNMOVIC serves no further purpose.

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Starting World War III By Mistake

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Let’s see the problems here:

  • This makes a conventional attack indistinguishable from a nuclear one, increasing the possibility of a nuclear response.

  • It makes arms control agreements next to impossible to enforce, though that might be the goal of Bush and his evil minions™, they have always opposed arms control agreements.

Navy, Air Force Explore Conventional Strike Options (Subscription Required)

Aviation Week & Space Technology
07/02/2007, page 32

Amy Butler
Los Angeles and Sunnyvale, Calif.

The Pentagon is looking for non-nuclear strike options, prompting new demos

Printed headline: Hardly Conventional

The U.S. Air Force and Navy are preparing different approaches to solving a gap in the nation’s ability to deliver a conventional payload to strike any target on the globe within one hour of a go-ahead.

The Navy is looking to its Trident II D5 submarine-launched missile, while the Air Force is considering a land-based design using decommissioned Peacekeeper and Minuteman rocket motors on a Minotaur launch vehicle tipped with a conventional munition.

U.S. Strategic Command chief, Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright–the White House’s pick for the next vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff–says he needs this capability to react to a variety of threats without having to rely on basing rights or nuclear weapons. The target set could include anything from activities deserving of a preemptive strike–such as an anti-satellite threat–or a reaction to real-time intelligence on terrorist elements.

And this makes it even worse:

The Navy notionally plans to dedicate two of 24 tubes in each of 14 Ohio-class submarines to the conventional Trident mission. The remaining tubes would continue to carry the nuclear-armed versions.

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There is a sub launched ballistic missile headed toward you. You have nukes. Is it targeting you, or someone else? Is it conventional or nuclear?

You have 5 minutes to choose a response.

North Korean Money Released

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This problem was not created by the DPRK. It was created by the Bush administration, which DAYS after having a preliminary agreement, froze North Korean assets.

My guess is that some of Dick Cheney’s protégés made the call to freeze these assets.

They have been sabotaging negotiations for years.

Hopes rise for end to North Korea impasse

TOKYO – The transfer of blacklisted North Korean assets from a Macau bank was set to begin Thursday, a report said, raising hopes of resolving the drawn-out dispute which has held up a nuclear disarmament deal.

Japan’s Kyodo News agency, quoting unnamed authorities in the Chinese territory, said procedures to transfer the funds out of the Banco Delta Asia were scheduled to begin Thursday.

The communist North, which sparked international outrage when it tested an atom bomb for the first time last year, agreed in February to shut down its nuclear reactor in return for badly needed fuel aid and diplomatic benefits.

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