Category: Presidential Campaign

Wanker of the Day: Lawrence O’Donnell

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If you have a strong stomache, read his his entry in the Huffington Post.

I understand the calls of various people for Edwards to drop out so as to benefit a particular candidate. That’s politics, but the reasons he gives are stupid, and insulting to Barack Obama, John Edwards, and the whole south.

If John Edwards stays in the race, he might, in the end, become nothing other than the Southern white man who stood in the way of the black man. And for that, he would deserve a lifetime of liberal condemnation.

Jane Smiley replied on HuffPo. It’s titled, Shut Up, Larry. Word up, Jane.

This is Harsh

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Well, it looks like the Republicans are starting to swift boat each other, as shown by this anti-Huckabee ad, put out by Victims Voice, a 527 with unknown funding.

The principal of the organization, one Keith Emis, claims that it was done by him and a friend, and that they only spent money on tape and gas, but I think that this is too well produced for that.

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Of course, the whole story shows a startling lack of unawareness. The cheerleader who was raped was a distant cousin of Bill Clinton, so there was a great hue and cry from the right wing that Wayne Dumond was railroaded because of who was governor at the time.

Mike Huckabee set him free, but he did so because a lot of people, many of them not in Arkansas pressured him, because it doesn’t matter if you are raped, if you are related to Bill Clinton.

Interesting Theory on NH: Obama Lost Because of Angry With Bush Vote

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Interesting analysis from Open Left, Chris Bowers notes that Obama led 38%-39% among those dissatisfied with Bush, but among the 2/3 of the voters angry with Bush, Clinton won 39%-34%.

Obama is in a bind with this. His campaign is deliberately a non-angry one, and he really can’t switch gears, because if he does, he becomes the “angry black man”, and that is not an electable place to be in the USA.

Political Updates for the Day

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John Kerry has endorsed Barack Obama. I’m not sure how much of this is that he likes Obama, and how much is the feeling that he might have that the Clintonistas submarined him in 2004 to clear the way for Hillary.

TheHill.com – Clinton outraised Obama in the fourth quarter, $24 million to $23.5 million. No breakdown of contributions between primary and general though.

We are starting to see stories about Obama’s ties to Antoin “Tony” Rezko and his house purchase. I don’t see much being there in terms of corruption (stupidity is another matter), but if he gets the nomination, this will be a regular Republican talking point.

Richardson drops out of the race no word yet on who he will endorse, but my guess would be Clinton.

Landrieu’s corruption story seems to have had a bit of wind taken out of its sales. It appears that the earmark in question was because, “Paul Vance, the superintendent of the D.C. public schools, had written Landrieu, then the ranking member on the D.C appropriations subcommittee, and Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH), then the chair, to ask for funds for Voyager.” It’s not the end of the investigation, but it makes it look like any developments are not imminent.

Looks like Unity ’08 will be shut down to make way for a Bloomberg campaign site. Well, f&^% you your honor.

OK, the Results in New Hampshire McCain & Clinton Win

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And I’m pulling down the polling spreadsheet, you can find it here.

McCain beats Romney. I figured that it would be closer.

Clinton beats Obama. This one shocked me.

And yes, my prediction that Huckabee would break 17% was wrong.

If I continue to get my predictions this wrong, I expect a job offer from the Bush White House.

My analysis: First, I wish that Paul had out polled Giuliani. Just because Mr. 911 deserves to be humiliated, like he did to his last wife by announcing the divorce on Mother’s day at a press conference. The man is a human stain, and the only candidate out there worse than the Avignon President, and his VP, the human snarl.

The American public supported Rudy because they did not know him, but over the past 2-4 months, they have who he is, and they would sooner French kiss a cow than vote for him.

As to McCain, it must be great for the press corps to have a “man crush” on you. He’s too damn old, and he’s hated by the Evangelicals and by the Wall Street Republicans…He won’t win.

Huckabee did OK, and will crush the opposition in South Carolina, notwithstanding Freddie Thompson’s clown show line in the sand down there. He may not have the nomination locked up, but he if he does not get the nomination, he comes in 2nd.

Clinton-Obama, I don’t know where it’s going. According to exit poll reports, the older voters were what put her over the top, and so I would give her a slight edge.

I don’t know the effect of her being misty-eyed at that rally. I just saw it as her being tired and a bit overwhelmed, and so I did not comment on it, but perhaps people wanted to see her in a slightly less reserved mode.

It certainly didn’t hurt.

An interesting phenomenon can be on the front page of Josh Marshall’s TPM there were a lot of people who do not care for Clinton who were incensed at the way the press went after her. It’s only 2-3 letters but I assume that it represents at least a segment of the population.

I can’t see Edwards getting any traction unless either Obama or Clinton crash and burn, which depresses me.

With Obama, you have a content free campaign (and dog whistle gay baiting), and with Clinton you have potentially disasterous dynastic issues. We’ve already had 20 straight years of presidents Bush and Clinton, which is too damn much.

I’m in Maryland, so if my vote counts, I’ll be amazed, but I’m pulling the lever for Edwards.

This is REALLY Classy

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You know, one of the things I prefer about the British is their culture of heckling.
Not only is heckling expected, but politicians are expected to be able to deal with it.

I think that it would result in more substantive campaigns, because the average voter/heckler has the ability to drive the focus, and politicians have to be quick on their feet.

I think it makes it harder for someone to become president just because they are the idiot son of a previous president.

That being said, if America were to adopt this model, we would need remedial education for hecklers, because lordy, this is lame:

Two men were just removed from a high school auditorium where Sen. Hillary Clinton is speaking, after they stood up during her speech, lifted signs and chanted “iron my shirt.”

Seriously, if you are going to do this, spend some time coming up with something that makes her look bad, not something that makes you look bad.

This is just so “high school”.

Running Out of Ballots: New Hampshire Turnout Off the Charts

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Good. High turnout is something that benefits the society, because it gives more people a vested interest in the results, and hence a reason to be informed.

Not surprisingly, the turnout has increased the most on the Democratic side of the primary, undeclared voter can declare when they go into vote, and it looks like there may be shortages of ballots.

I think that this means a long night before all returns are in, but they will probably have a winner declared by 9:00pm on both sides.

My Prediction on New Hampshire

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Well, really I have only one, that Huckabee will do a lot better than the polling trend of 12% or so.

If you look at things like this report of large crowds for him, and the statements of the Republican establishment and the Washington punditocracy* to the effect that Huckabee supporters are mouth breathing morons, which would tend to have people not telling pollsters that they lean his way.

Additionally, independent voters are more likely to vote in the Democratic primary, simply because they believe that the next president will be a Democrat, which leaves a higher proportion of hard core conservatives voting.

I’m calling for 17+% for Huckabee. (A clarification, I’m not calling a win, just that he breaks 17%)

*Which might be better described as a Kakistocracy.

Joe Trippi Claims That Hillary Campaign Is Broke

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Honestly, I don’t see this claim as anything but self-aggrandizement from Trippi.

He thinks that because he blew through $40 million dollars with Dean in 2004, that Hillary must have blown through $100 million or so in 2008.

I place no credence in this, for a number of reasons:

  • It’s Joe bloody Trippi, who has little credibility.
  • You are not getting reports of frantic fund raising emails, and in this day of the internet, if there were a cash flow crisis, emails would be flying fast and furious.
  • This serves his interest as an Edwards campaign advisor.

OK, Gravel is My Guy, at Least Until He Joneses My Buzz

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So now, Mike Gravel is telling teens that pot is better than alcohol.

He also said that by decriminalizing dope, you would end up with fewer criminals, and less exposure to the criminal element.

Of course, this is that wacky Gravel being wacky again…except that he’s telling the truth.

Marijuana is not physically addictive, it cannot kill you with an overdose, and the effects on the system long term are milder.

Of course, the problem is that legalization would cut into both the profits of the Pot business, and the budget of the DEA, so “various serious people” don’t support legalization.

The GOP’s Primaries as High School Musical

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Michael Scherer of Time Magazind, has Tan analysis of the GOP debates that actually is a good analysis of the election:

  • John Mccain: The coolest kid in school.
  • Mitt Romney: The class do-gooder and overachiever.
  • Mike Huckabee: The class clown whose heart always seems in the right place.

I’m not sure if I’m impressed at this guy’s perception, or terrified that the Republican nominee fits into the memes of hich school cliques.

How I’ll Be Tracking the Polls

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As opposed to posting update posts, I’ve put a Google Spreadsheet on the top of my page.

To prevent useless scrollage, I’m going to not show the older results, but you can see the whole spreadsheet here, ready for things like export to excel or other analysis packages.

Anyone who uses these regularly, I have a couple of questions:

  • Is there a way to vary the weight of the borders?
  • Is there a way to automatically bold the leader in a poll (I’ve played around with Google’s conditional formatting, and ti does not yet quite make it there).

Otherwise, consider this an open thread.