Gee, if we did know the moral character of our leaders, we might be worried that they were trying to drum up a war on false pretenses, but that can’t be true.
Category: Proliferation
Disciplinary Actions for Bent Spear Incident
Disciplinary actions have been taken against over 50 military personnel as a result of the nuclear warheads flying to Barksdale from Minot.
I still find it hard to believe that this was not intentional, perhaps a bit of patriotic insubordination from someone who saw that the nukes were being pre positioned to launch a nuclear strike on Iran.
No Syrian Nukes
Some analysis on GlobalSecurity.org and Phoenix Woman’s blog do a pretty good job of evicerating the claims of nuclear weapons activity.
So, if it’s not nukes, what did Israel hit? It hit weapons destined to Hamas in Lebanon.
Why would they do this? To regain credibility after the debacle in Lebanon.
On to the debunking.
First, my analysis:
Syria is not even close to have the basic nuclear infrastructure that could begin to construct nuclear weapons infrastructure. They have little in the way of Uranium, no smelting facilities, no enrichment or other purification facilities, and very little of the human capital necessary.
Second, Phoenix Woman:
A 5 MW reactor is big. From the satellite photo, once can see that the Yongbyon site is 4500 x 2500 m, or roughly 2.5 mi x 1.5 mi. The reactor building is very roughly 250 x 450 m. It consumes massive amounts of fuel: 110 tons of spent fuel per year. John Pike’s GlocalSecurity thinks that the satellite imagery of a uranium enrichment facility might be missed. In my opinion, the large amount of ore required would not be, especially considering that Syria doesn’t have good ore sources (it does have a site which extracts uranium from phosphate at Homs, but the uranium is a contaminant; see Glocal Security below).
In other words, it’s just too damn big to hide from the very earliest stages of site preparation.
Third, GlobalSecurity.org:
“dramatic satellite imagery” – the types of activity associated with nuclear weapons development, particularly at the early stages of the program, are precisely the sorts of things that are not going to produce dramatic satellite imagery, which is why North Korea’s uranium program is so vexing for the United States.
“primarily from Israel” – the reliance on such liasion sourced intelligence that could not be independently verified was one of the central problems with the Iraq WMD intelligence failure, and either evidence is “primarily from Israel” [ie, HUMINT] or it is independtly knowable by the United States based on “dramatic satellite imagery” but it is difficult to comprehend how both statements could be true.
“restricted to a few senior officials” – this part of the story is designed to explain to other reporters why their sources are unable to confirm any of the details of this report
“arrival at the Syrian port of Tartus” – this is not a large facility, and this news story would have us believe that Israeli intelligence has intimate knowledge of unloading activities at this port, a collection capability that was willingly compromised here
“labeled as cement” — cement is normally transported as a bulk powder, and less frequently in recent decades in bags — neither form of transport would usefully conceal nuclear related components, and labeling some other means of transport [eg, standard 40-foot containters] as cement would be so patently false as to immediately draw suspicion to the shipment.
“on the Euphrates River, close to the Turkish border” — the implication, though not over assertion, is that over the course of three days Israeli intelligence was able to track the shipment as it travelled half-way across Syria, or that Israeli surveillance of Syria is so comprehensive that the shipment was detected upon arrival — either of which is very impressive and hard to believe.
“using it to extract uranium from phosphates” – Syria has a phosphate industry, which supports the production of fertilizer and phosphoric acid. Between 1996 and 2001 Syria operated a pilot plant at Homs for the purification of phosphoric acid, in order to remove the uranium contanmination so that the phosphoric acid could be used for food processing. This project was financed by the UN Developement Program, supported by the IAEA, and not bombed by Israel.
And if that is not enough, we have John “The Mustache of Doom” Bolton as one of the sources for the press.
On 16 September 2007 former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton said “it will be very unusual for Israel to conduct such a military operation inside Syria other (than) for a very high value target and certainly a Syrian effort in nuclear weapon area will qualify. … I think this is a clear message not only to Syria, this is a clear message to Iran as well that its continued efforts to acquire nuclear weapons are not going to go unanswered…” Bolton never claims direct knowledge of the facts of the matter, only that a strike against Syrian nuclear capabilities would be in the interest of Israel.
John Bolton has never let the truth stop him from making baseless accusations, but even HE is not willing to claim that there is a nuke facility.
India-US Nuke Deal Off For Now
Thank God!
The US-India civilian nuclear deal was supported by Bush and His Evil Minions™ because it was a big wet kiss (and no small subsidy to) the American civilian nuclear industry.
It cemented India’s position as a nuclear power, and in so doing stoked the fire of the nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan, and as I’ve said before, (see also here), this accellerates Pakistan’s program, and makes the loss of one or more weapons during civil unrest (Pakistan is in some ways bordering on being a failed state) to lord knows who.
Thank you to the Indian Communist party* for apparrently killing this deal. Manmohan Singh, the Indian Prime Minister has apparently killed the deal for now.
*One of the joys of the Bush and His Evil Minions™ is that on at least a weekly basis I am saying things, at least to myself, that I would never have thought possible.
New York Times is Reporting that Israeli Air Strike Was On Nuclear Reactor
OK, this has gone back and forth about half a dozen times now, but this is the current flavor of the day.
According to “U.S. and foreign officials who had access to the analysts’ intelligence reports”, the reactor was very similar to the DPRK’s graphite moderated reactor at Yongbyon.
Here are the two most significant quotes from the article:
Information on the raid has been under under tight wraps in both Washington and Israel, the newspaper said, restricted to a handful of officials, and Israeli media have been barred from publishing information about it.
But a senior Israeli official said the attack was meant to “re-establish the credibility of our deterrent power,” the Times said. Several U.S. officials told the paper the strike may also have been intended for the attention of Iran and its nuclear program.
I read this as saying that it was primarily intended to be a warning to Iran, but there is an unspoken subtext, that the Olmert government might have been motivated to make the strike, at least to a degree, for political considerations.
The proof will be in whether or not Olmert calls for snap elections soon.
The newspaper also reported that Vice President Dick Cheney and other hawkish members of the administration contended that the same intelligence that prompted Israel’s attack on the reactor strengthened the case for U.S. reconsideration of negotiations with North Korea over ending its nuclear program, as well as Washington’s diplomatic posture with Syria.
This means that the usual suspects among the Neocons are using this as an excuse to agitate for war with Syria (and possibly Iran) and to overturn the current deals with the DRPK.
One should recall that vb before building the reactor at Yongbyon, the DPRK had already located Uranium mines, begun mining, and had manufactured fuel, both unenriched and enriched. The presence of a reactor in Syria does not constitute a competent and self-sufficient nuclear program on its own.
Israeli FM Minimizes Threat of Iranian Nukes
It turns out that a few months agoForeign Minister Tzipi Livni said that Iranian nuclear weapons do not pose an existential threat to Israel. The article also reports that former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy has similar views.
This is no surprise. Given that any Iranian action would inevitably result in a devastating Israeli counterstrike, some of which would be submarine bases, and hence secure from a first strike, we would be at mutually assured destruction, which worked between the US and the USSR for years.
Additionally, considering the Iranians as Persian, rather than Arab, it would be unusual to expect them to take actions that would result in the destruction of their culture in order to benefit an what is largely an Arab agenda.
There is also an insight into Israeli politics, specifically how Kadima would look to hold onto power with Ariel Sharon:
Livni also criticized the exaggerated use that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is making of the issue of the Iranian bomb, claiming that he is attempting to rally the public around him by playing on its most basic fears.
I would be very surprised if Kadima were above 3rd place in votes next elections, and I would not be surprised if the losses were stunning. It really is Ariel Sharon’s vanity party, and he is now gone.
Nukes in South Asia
Some more updates on how the Bush administration is making what is currently the worst threat to global security even worse by helping India increase its arsenal, with the obvious consequence of the almost failed state of Pakistan following suit.
First, it turns out that Pakistan is going with mobile launch systems, which are more likely to fall into terrorist hands, and India is working on technologies to take out buried facilities.
Lovely arms race there, and Bush is fanning the flames so that American nuclear companies can make a few bucks.
Basically, Bush is winking at India’s nuclear weapons program, but it’s not enough for the more bellicose and nationalistic members of India’s body politic.
Delightful.
The Biggest Threat to US and Israeli Security, Revisited
Here’s another story on the disastrous nuclear deal that the Bush administration has cut with India.
Money quote:
India’s leftist parties object strongly to the accord. They say it undermines the country’s sovereignty and its right to conduct nuclear tests. They insist the government stall negotiations, scheduled with the International Atomic Energy Agency and others, until their objections are met.
So, what are the consequences of this deal?
- India’s nuclear weapons program at best continues at the current pace.
- Most likely scenario: this frees up resources from civilian nuclear power to go into the weapons program.
- Almost as likely scenario: Civilian resources are hijacked to serve the military program.
- Pakistan accelerates its nuclear program in response.
- Pakistan’s state security apparatus is thoroughly infiltrated by Islamists and supporters of the Taliban.
- Pakistan is very close to a failed stated, with the northern areas not under governmental control, a ruler installed by coup, civil society opposing the current government, and a large segment of the population supporting a Wahabi theocracy.
- In the event of an Islamist takeover, it is likely that nuclear materials will be under the control of Islamists, who would seriously consider using them against the US and Israel.
This is quite literally a bigger blunder than invading Iraq.
Bush Flouts Nuclear Anti-Proliferation Laws
The single most likely place on earth, and George W. Bush is handing nuclear technology to the Indian government so that he can throw some money toward some of his contributors.
Didn’t we invade Iraq on the suspicion that Saddam was doing what George Bush is doing now?
Let’s see:
- They are refusing to release the text of the agreement.
- India still refuses to sign the NNPT.
- The agreement is vague enough that the Indians claim no restrictions on nuclear weapons.
- Bush added a signing statement telling congress to go pound sand.
When do we invade the white house with the 82nd Airborne?
Seriously, what has Bush not screwed up beyond all recognition in the past 6+ years?
DPRK to Start Fielding More Advanced Missiles
North Koreawill be fielding modern solid propellant missiles.
This is a natural development. Missiles and missile technology are their only real exports, and, absent a nuclear capability (which we don’t want them to have) it is their only credible deterrent.
Furthermore, these weapons are legal.
Of course, you have a former Bush administration official *cough* corrupt incompetent *cough* and a US Army general *cough* Bush Toady *cough* acting as if the sky is falling.
The North Korean has a very real fear of a sneak attack from the US. As long as Cheney is anywhere near the levers of power, this fear is justified.
Even if the fear were not justified, the best course of action is to attempt to reduce that fear, rather than stoking it with bellicose and jingoistic rhetoric.