Category: Real Estate

Economics Update

No Comments

Well, real estate sucks, with pending home sales falling by 4% (BTW, Manhattan apartment prices fell 4% too, so ain’t nothing going up.)

Manufacturing data is out too, and it’s grim, with factory orders falling twice what was forecast in November, and Toyota deciding to idle its plants for 11 days over February and March.

The last time Toyota did this was in the early 1990s recession, and they did it for one day.

Services did better than expected, with the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing index rising. The prediction was that it would fall from 37.3 to 37 in November, but it rose to 40.6.

Better than expected, but any number below 50 still counts as contraction.

A bit of up news is that Calculated Risk’s Credit Crisis Indicators are showing improvement today.

But with all this going on it is no surprise that consumer bankruptcies rose by nearly a third in 2008.

The problem with the 2005 act was that people don’t declare bankruptcy on a whim, they declare bankruptcy when they fall of the tight rope that is middle class existence in the United States, and there is no safety net to catch them.

In currency, the dollar rose against the Euro, largely on the expectations of further rate cuts by the ECB.

In energy, oil finished the day down, but it spent part of the day above $50/bbl for the first time in about a month.

Economics Update

No Comments

Just so you know, the whole auto industry is in a tailspin.

All the auto manufacturers are seeing sales fall by more than 30%, with Chrysler falling by a whopping 53%, year-over-year.

My guess as to Chrysler is that the American public realizes on some unconscious level that Cerberus is a pump and dump operation that cannot be trusted.

In real estate, construction spending was down by 0.6% from October to November, which was better than the consensus estimate of 1.4%, which to my mind is a serious WTF number. 1.4% a month is Sta-Puft Marshmallow man time.

In central-bank land, we have reports that the Federal Reserve and the ECB are working together to avoid deflation, which indicates that central bankers on the both sides of the pond are scared.

The ECB’s only charter is to control inflation, but now they are trying to figure out how to get inflation back into their economies.

No surprise that we are still seeing a flight to safety that is driving the dollar up against both the Euro and Yen.

In energy, oil is up again, largely on concerns about the Middle East, and retail gasoline was up 1.4¢/gal, the 6th straight day in a row, which seems to indicate that gas prices will be rising in the near future.

Finally, here is a pretty picture:

It’s a measure of the ISM Manufacturing index (I mentioned this last week). The graph is courtesy of The Bonddad Blog, and he accurately describes this as “cliff diving”.

Economics Update

No Comments

It’s a heavy news day. I know this because I was not sure whether or not consumer confidence falling to its lowest level ever recorded, and the Conference Board’s sentiment index began in 1967.

Economists were predicting an increase from 44.9 to 45.5.

This probably explains why the International Council of Shopping Centers says that this has been the weakest holiday sales season since 1970.

Well, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index fell 18% from October 2007 to October 2008, so the index is now at March 2004 levels, and by all indications, it’s still headed down.

Will the last realtor please turn off the lights?

Finally, in 4th place in the competition for which story should be the lede, we have
assets in mutual funds falling 3% in November, they are down 22.7% since December 2007.

What we are seeing here is a slow run on mutual funds by investors who are fleeing to quality.

Banks are fleeing to quality too, with banks cutting lending this year by 55%, to the lowest level since 1994.

In currency, Russia has devalued the ruble again, it’s now down about 18.6% from its peak.

The dollar fell again against the Yen and Euro, though it rose against the Pound, largely because the UK appears to be in worse shape than the US.

I wonder if this might give additional impetus for the UK to move from the Pound to the Euro.

The fall of both the USD and the Pound are largely because of “quantitative easing”, otherwise called printing money, by the central banks.

One bit of financial news that surprises me is that the
Israeli Shekel just had it’s biggest pop vs. the dollar in 10 years, and this was despite the fact that the central bank cut its benchmark rate by 75 basis points (¾%).

The claim is that it’s year end repatriation of profits that drove the Shekel up, but my guess is that it’s people who think that the current fighting will calm things down in the short term (3-18 months) and are trying to flip the currency for a quick buck.

In energy, both oil and retail gasoline were down today, and this picture is from today. (Click picture for link)

A Photograph of Him in a Mariachi Outfit?

No Comments

Peter S. Goodman and Gretchen Morgenson have what might be the single most entertaining account of bank mismanagement of the year.

They recount the story of WaMu, and start by quoting former CEO Kerry K. Killinger”

We hope to do to this industry what Wal-Mart did to theirs, Starbucks did to theirs, Costco did to theirs and Lowe’s-Home Depot did to their industry. And I think if we’ve done our job, five years from now you’re not going to call us a bank.

Well, he’s right, it’s 5 years later, and nobody is calling Washington Mutual a bank anymore.

But it gets even better when they interview a former supervisor at a WaMu mortgage processing center, John D. Parsons, who is now in prison on drug charges:

…..

Yet even by WaMu’s relaxed standards, one mortgage four years ago raised eyebrows. The borrower was claiming a six-figure income and an unusual profession: mariachi singer.

Mr. Parsons could not verify the singer’s income, so he had him photographed in front of his home dressed in his mariachi outfit. The photo went into a WaMu file. Approved.

(emphasis mine)

Yog-Sothoth’s Yam Yogurt, this is eerily reminiscent of the Tulip Mania of 1637.

H/T Wallstreetjackass for noticing this bit of absurdity.

Economics Update

No Comments

Retail sales tanked in the Christmas shopping season, down 5.5% in November and 8% in December, though ex-retail gasoline sales, where the fall in prices drove things further down, the numbers were -2.5% and -4%, which are pretty worrying too.

I think that when the numbers are adjusted later with more complete data, they will be worse, because customer visits to retailers fell 24% on the weekend before Christmas.

FWIW, it does not look like the rest of the world will be pulling themselves, or anyone else, out of recession soon, as Japanese industrial production fell 8.1% YoY in November, and the Japanese central bank has no where to go with interest rates, having just lowered them to 0.10% (no misplaced decimal).

About the only piece of good news are The Big Picture’s Credit Crisis Indicators, which are showing a bit of improvement, with the TED spread and the LIBOR-OIS spread improving, though rates on Treasuries are still very low.

In the meantime, mortgage rates for a 30 year fixed mortgagehit the lowest number since at least 1971, when Freddie Mac started keeping these records, 5.14%, though there is the caveat that you can get these only if the banks are willing to lend at all.

Note that this is for the “conforming” mortgage, which is packaged and resold by the GSEs, which now have an explicit guarantee from the government, and, as noted earlier, “non-conforming” mortgages are at about 2% more, an all time high.

Oil was up a bit on announcements by suppliers of production cuts by the UAE and House of Saud.

Nothing much happened with currency. The 26th is a day off for most American traders, and Boxing Day in the UK, so there was not much activity.

Economics Update

No Comments

Ouch. Initial jobless claims for last week hit 586,000, the highest number since Nov. 27, 1982. The 4 week rolling average, which is a better metric, rose as well, to 558,000, though continuing claims declined to 4.370 million.

Even if you do have a job, it’s likely that you are seeing wages and or hour cut….And that 401(k) match, fuggedaboudit.

It’s no wonder that consumer spending fell in November, though it was less than expected, and when adjusted for inflation….OK, adjusted for deflation….It was actually up.

As Calculated Risk notes even as record low mortgage rates are boosting demand, a lot of that ReFi, the spread between “conforming” and “jumbo” 30 year fixed mortgages remain at an all time high of about 2%, which means that in expensive areas, the cheap mortgages are simply not available.

CRE is tumbling too, as we can see from the fact that Manhattan office vacancies hit a two-year high.

In currency, the dollar was down again today, and the Russian central bank devalued the Ruble…again.

I still think that a run on the dollar is a possibility when traders start to realize that the Treasury and Fed are printing money and dropping it from the proverbial helicopter.

In energy, increases in inventory, drove oil to $35.35/bbl.

Economics Update

No Comments

Will the last home builder please turn off the lights?

Because existing home sales fell 8.6% from October, new home sales fell 2.9%, home prices fell by 13.2%, and foreclosures and short sales were 45% of all sales.

Consumer sentiment improved more than forecast last month though, driven largely by the expectation of lower prices.

In currency, the dollar was largely mixed, though both the Yen and Pound were down.

It should be noted that the Yen is off a historic high, and the pound is near a historic low, it’s about to reach parity with the Euro, so the dynamics are different.

As to why the Pound is falling, it might be that the U.K. economy is shrinking at a pace not seen in 17 years, 0.6%, which is worse than
the US figure of -0.5% for the quarter.

EVen more than the US, the UK bought into the idea of the finance industry as an engine for the economy, and they are reaping the whirlwind.

Oil is down again.

Also, here is a story that I think we will see more of in the next few months,* there has been a default by Global Investment House (GIH) in Kuwait on a $200 million loan, one of the larger investment houses in the Arab world.

They aren’t going under just yet, but I think that this is the first crack in the armor of the petro-Arab investment houses.

*Because I am just so good at making predictions.†
†Considering my record, this may actually be a sign to go the other way….Or not.‡
‡Disclaimer: Matthew G. Saroff disclaims any responsibility for any actions taken as a result of the information displayed on any pages of this website.

Economics Update

No Comments

The big news, the Fed basically giving up and lowering its rates to what is effectively zero, I just posted, but that’s not the only central bank news today.

The European Central Bank is considering cutting its overnight deposit rate, and the Bank of Japan is looking at ‘quantitative’ monetary easing, things like buying commercial paper outright.

I think that we may see the printing presses cranking up fairly soon, and as I’ve said before, this might not be a bad thing: inflating our way out of the housing crunch as a way to staunch the bleeding in the credit bubble. (I think I just violated some regulations on mixing metaphors, and the English Instructor Swat Team will come after me, red pencils blazing)

In any case, the Federal reserve cutting rates by ¾% has pushed the dollar down today and pushed treasury yields down to new lows.

That second one is part of the goal, the idea that lower yields will move people to more risky investments, but since people have already accepted negative yields, I’m not sure that it will make a difference.

In the mean time, those who worry about a deflationary spiral, are not relaxed folks today, with the CPI in the United States dropping by 1.9% (non-seasonably adjusted) and 1.7% (seasonably adjusted), the biggest drops since 1932 and 1947 respectively.

Anytime you hear an economic statistic, followed by, “since 1932,” it is not a good thing….I’m just saying…

Needless to say, this is hitting with real estate too, with housing construction starts falling 18.9% in November, to 625K, the lowest number since records started being kept on this in 1959.

Anytime you hear an economic statistic, followed by, “since 195,” or, “since records started being kept,” it is not a good thing either….I’m just saying…

In Southern California, one of the areas hardest hit by the housing bubble, prices are down 5% for October-November, and 35% from November last year.

I’ve seen a few stories about how selling is picking up in California, but this really is people scavenging foreclosures and oft-mentioned the dead cat bounce.

In energy, OPEC meeting opened with calls to cut production by 2 million bbl/day, which, along with the falling dollar and Fed rate cut, pushed oil up, but only by a bit less than a dollar.

Retail gasoline was up again today, but still has not moved more than a penny above its recent low.

Economics Update

No Comments

It’s Monday, so let’s start with real estate.

The first is this story on San Francisco real estate. It’s falling like a poleaxed steer, so both of the most desirable locations on both coasts are hit by the slump, which should come as no surprise.

Additionally, we have the NAHB reporting that builder confidence is staying at a record this month, which makes sense: If builders are not near suicidally depressed they are crazier than Rod Blagojevich.

Of course, it appears that Fitch ratings is actually crazier than Blago, or perhaps just dumber, because only now have they adjusted their ratings of Alt-A mortgage backed securities, which have been collapsing for at least 6 months.

In the rest of the economy, we have New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey deteriorating significantly, which, considering the capital intensive nature of manufacturing, is probably why business bankruptcies are jumping, with 58,000 through the end of November, as compared with 43,000 for all of 2007.

Quick math says that we are looking about 61K for the year, or about a 40% increase.

Under these conditions, its inevitable that a flight to safety would drive 30-year US bonds to record low yields, below 3%.

In currencies, we have another devaluation of the ruble, and the dollar is at a 2 month low on the expectation of a Fed rate cut.

In energy, retail gasoline was down again, after yesterday’s bump that followed 86 days of decline, while oil fell about 2%, though it was above $50/bbl earlier today, and OPEC is saying that they are really serious about cutting production this time….Yeah sure.

Economics Update

No Comments

Woah, new claims for jobless benefits just jumped by 58,000, to 573,000, a 26 year high.

Continuing claims, which is a far less noisy metric, also jumped to a 26 year high, 4.43 million, up from 4.09 million.

In real estate, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage hit 5.47%, a 4½ year low, and forclosures fell in November, but this appears to be as a result of new state laws requiring more time for the process and/or temporary moratoriums, so there will likely be a significant spike in the next few months.

In the more general economy, we have a first, or at least a first since the Federal Reserve began collecting the data in 1951, the level of consumer debt held in the US has fallen, by 0.8%.

Of course, consumer net worth fell by 4.7%, so it’s a net loss.

In international finance, the Swiss Central Bank cut its interest rate by 50 basis point, and China’s exports fell 2.2% year over year, the steepest drop in nearly a decade.

In currency, the dollar weakened significantly, by about 4¢.

My guess is that it was some combination of extremely low interest rates in the US, or the demonstration of batsh%$ insanity by the Republican senators on the auto bailout vote.

In energy, oil is back above $45/bbl on strong calls by OPEC for production cuts, and retail gasoline prices continued their slide.

Economics Update

No Comments

Well, now we have a report from MasterCard saying that gasoline consumption rose year over year for the first time since April, which I guess gives us an indication of just how quickly American consumers go back to their old ways when fuel prices fall.

In the meantime, Calculated Risk’s Credit Crisis Indicators have shown a bit of improvement, though with people taking negative interest to be in US treasuries, I’m not sure how reassuring that it.

In any case, it’s now clear that last week’s surge in mortgage applications was from people scrambling to lock in rates and this week, we have the application rate plunge, because this week’s applicants rushed to apply last week.

Meanwhile, consumer spending looks to post the biggest drop since just after Pearl Harbor, which is really pretty scary when you think of it.

And there won’t be much help on the export markets, with both China and Europe showing more signs of slowing themselves.

Which leads one to wonder when they will stop lending to us, because the U.S. budget deficit was $164.4 billion in November, up from $98.2 billion in November 2007.

Finally, we have oil rising on a Saudi supply cut, retail gasoline dropping for the 84th straight day, and the Dollar was mixed again today.

Economics Update

No Comments

We already knew that Japan was in a recession, but the updated data is worse than the initial data. The preliminary number was 0.1%, the prediction was 0.2%, and it came in at 0.5%.

Barry Ritholtz notes that the 4 Week T-Bill was paying 0%, down from 0.4%, and notes that the only reason to do this is if you expect that the next 4 week T-Bill will have a negative interest rate, i.e. that you pay the government money for the honor of lending them your money.

Turns out that he was a a little bit premature, because the 3 month T-Bills actually traded at negative interest rates, “If you invested $1 million in three-month bills at today’s negative discount rate of 0.01 percent, for a price of 100.002556, at maturity you would receive the par value for a loss of $25.56.”

If you want to feel concerned note that this is the Lowest Rate Since 1929…1929….That year sounds familiar.

In the meantime, the Bank of Canada cut its key rate by 75 basis points to a 50-year low, because they are in recession too.

In real estate, the Pending Home Sales index fell, though not by much, and listing prices for homes have continued to fall.

Calculated Risk has a summary of the commercial real estate market, and it ain’t pretty.

In energy, oil is down a bit, likely spooked by the complications on a bailout deal.

The dollar was mixed today, up a bit vs the Pound and Euro, and down a bit vs. the Yen.

And While We are Talking About Failing at Newspaper Publishing

No Comments

It looks like the New York Times will borrow about $225 million against the value of its headquarters building:

The Times Company owns 58 percent of the 52-story, 1.5 million-square-foot tower on Eighth Avenue, which was designed by the architect Renzo Piano, and completed last year. The developer Forest City Ratner owns the rest of the building. The Times Company’s portion of the building is not currently mortgaged, and some investors have complained that the company has too much of its capital tied up in that real estate.

The company has two revolving lines of credit, each with a ceiling of $400 million, roughly the amount outstanding on the two combined. One of those lines is set to expire in May, and finding a replacement would be difficult given the economic climate and the company’s worsening finances. Analysts have said for months that selling or borrowing against assets would be the company’s best option for averting a cash flow problem next year.

(emphasis mine)

Let’s calmly take a look at this.

The New York Times dumped hundreds of millions of dollars into a new building in downtown Manhattan, buying it with cash, and now they are concerned about liquidity.

The Times had a building, but for some reason they had to buy a new one, and it had to be in Manhattan, and it had to have everyone in it.

There is no reason, for example, that advertising could not have been put in Brooklyn, or White Plains, or for that matter, Mumbai.

The same goes for the bureaus that cover the other boroughs.

But management wants their shining castle in Manhattan.

This makes me miss Steve Gilliard, because his writing on Salon.com talked about this sort of stupid egotism in detail, and I’m sure that he would have had a field day writing about this.

Economics Update

No Comments

Well, some employment numbers are out, and they suck wet farts from dead pigeons. Job cuts in November were up 148% from last year, 181,671 according to Challenger Gray & Christmas said and 250,000 according to ADP.

Other metrics are bad too, with the Fed’s Beige Book showing economic slowdown in every one of the Federal reserve districts, and the Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing Index dropped off a cliff, falling to 37.3 from 44.4 in October.

Service activity in Europe is falling, with the Euro Zone service activity falling to a 10 year record.

In retail, we have Retail Tracker more than tripling its estimate as to the decline in this years holiday shopping season.

There is some bright news, with mortgage applications rising 112% in last week, though I tend to believe this analysis, that this is not new demand, but people scrambling to lock in the rate.

It’s one of those things that makes week to week stats noisy.

What isn’t noisy is the fact that Manhattan empty office space has doubled, and if there is a glut of office space there, there’s a glut of office space everywhere.

In international finance, we have, VEB, a Russian State Bank asking for a $34 billion cash injection, and the Kiwis% and the Thais central banks slashing their rates by 150 and 100 basis points (1% and 1.5%) respectively.

This makes it no surprise that the dollar gained against the euro and pound.

In energy, despite OPEC’s announcement of its intent to cut wasdown again today, and retail gas prices fell for the 77th straight day.

Heck of a Job, Kenny Boy

No Comments

Well it now appears that the merger of Bank of America and Countrywide Financial so aggressively pushed by Bank of America CEO and President Kenneth D. Lewis is finally bearing some fruit.

Unfortunately, it appears to be fruit of the toxic variety, as investors who hold mortgage backed securities of the former subprime lender are suing to demand their repurchase at full face value:

On Monday, a hedge fund sued the Countrywide Financial Corporation, the giant mortgage lender, demanding that Countrywide compensate holders of some securities backed by mortgages if the lender changes the terms of the loans.

The fund, Greenwich Financial Services, said it and other investors stood to lose money if Countrywide, now part of Bank of America, modified loans under a settlement that it reached with 11 state attorneys general in October.

Seriously, what were you thinking when you turned over the rock that was Countrywide Financial, saw the slime that lay beneath, and started to eat that, Mr. Lewis?

The problem with superstar multimillion dollar CEOs is that they don’t think that the basic rules of reality apply to them.

Economics Update

No Comments

Well, it looks like today was the day for all the stuff you wanted to dump before a 4 day weekend.

First, consumer spending fell 1%, well beyond the prediction of 0.7%.

Remember that these days, the Christmas season starts in October for a lot of people.

This is a crushing figure, and it’s not just due to falling energy prices, because people are paying down debt too.

The consumer confidence numbers reinforce this. The index is at 55.3, the lowest number since 1980, though still above the record of 51.7 in May, 1980.

Confidence not any better on the business side of things, with
durable goods orders falling 6.2% in October, and no, that’s not an annual rate, that is the shrinkage for the month.

The unemployment stats say that weekly jobless claims fell last week, but I’m taking that with a grain of salt for the following reasons:

  • Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 529,000 in the week ended November 22 from an upwardly revised 543,000 the previous week…..Meaning that you compare lower initial numbers versus the later ones from the previous week, and it’s a “drop”….yeah right.
  • The 4 week moving average, which smooths out the noise, hit a 25 year high. (click for full size pic)

Just in case you are wondering how bad this will get, note that Fitch just cut its ratings on Toyota’s bonds to AA from AAA.

Seriously this is a Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man news.

The credit markets are freezing up, though applications for mortgages are up, largely on insanely low interest….I wonder how many applications are rejected though.

I would also note that new home sales declined to the lowest level since 1982, so its not like there are a sh^%load of buyers out there.

As a result of all this, we are seeing a number of rescue packages world wide, with the European Commission announcing a €200 stimulus plan, ]China’s central bank cutting rates.

These are probably what drove the dollar up today, and it also drove oil up

That being said, I think that the most troubling indicator is the fact that the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 3%, a new record, and this indicates that the flight to the relative safety of US Treasuries is continuing unabated.

Economics Update

No Comments

Gee, the updated numbers for US GDP are in, and they have gotten worse, going from an annual rate of contraction of -0.3% to -0.5%.

In an effort to staunch the bleeding, the Federal Reserve has announced a new sh#@pile buy:

The Federal Reserve announced on Tuesday that it will initiate a program to purchase the direct obligations of housing-related government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)–Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks–and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. Spreads of rates on GSE debt and on GSE-guaranteed mortgages have widened appreciably of late. This action is being taken to reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for the purchase of houses, which in turn should support housing markets and foster improved conditions in financial markets more generally.

They are also opening up a facility for
consumer and small business loans.

This took down 30 year mortgage rates to a record low, down 1-1/8 percentage point to 4-7/8.

Of course, right now, the banks are so skittish that they are unlikely to do a mortgage unless the property is sold at a seriously depressed price anyway.

This is actually good sense, as the Case-Schiller home price index fell 17.4% year over year.

That’s probably why the Libor is trending up again. Too much uncertainty, so banks want more for their overnight loans.

Then again with the number of banks characterized as “troubled” by the FDIC jumped from 117 in the 2nd quarter to 171 in the 3rd quarter, the highest number in 13 years.

It’s no wonder that some of the technical wonks who watch the stock market are noting that this is the most volatile market ever, with average daily swings over the last 50 trading days of 3.82%.

By way of comparison, this number was 0.33% in February.

Oil fell a bit to day, to $50.77/bbl, and I think that the markets are starting to wonder about just how much money that the Federal Reserve will print, so the dollar fell on the news of the new Fed lending facilities.