Category: Real Estate

Economics Update

It’s jobless Thursday, and initial claims fell slightly to a still awful 472,000, in the middle of the 450-485k range it has been been in, with one exception, for the past 6 months, while the less volatile 4-week moving average fell to 485,500 last week from 488,000, and continuing claims fell to 4.46 million, and the people on emergency UI fell as well.

It’s a lot of press about improvement, but this is not even treading water, this is a number in which payrolls continue to fall.

Pending home sales rose slightly in July, and beat estimates, but the market is still pretty much dead.

The Term is Ethnic Cleansing


2 Words Left Unsaid

Rachel Maddow talks about the housing situation in New Orleans, and makes the point that the elimination of much of the subsidized housing for the poor was intended to reduce the availability of housing for the poor, and generally black, residents of the Crescent City.

John Aravosis references Naomi Klein’s “Shock Doctrine,” but there is a far uglier term for this: Ethnic cleansing.

Economics Update

The lede has to be the ADP report showing that private employers cut 10,000 jobs in August.

Obviously, we will get the official numbers from the Feds on Friday.

On the other hand, manufacturing grew more than expected in August.

It’s kind of a mixed bag news day, with consumer spending increasing, but real incomes fell for the first time in over 6 months and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence beat estimates.

I’m not sure exactly what they are spending money on though, because car sales had the weakest August in 27 years, which would imply an aversion to big ticket purchases.

In real estate, the Case-Shiller home price index rose in June, though that’s probably more a result of the now-expired tax credit than anything else, mortgage applications rose slightly, though, unsurprisingly, more so for refinance than it did for home purchases, and construction spending was significantly lower than estimates.

In the “these are real lives that are being f%$#ed with” category, bankruptcy filings fell in August, though they still remain at a near 5 years high.

Finally, Canada’s economy slowed significantly in the 2nd quarter.

Doubling Down on the Stupid

It’s one of Barack Obama’s Stupid Minions, HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan said on the Sunday talk shows that a renewal of the new home buyer tax credit might be coming back.

This is unbelievably stupid on a number of levels. First people who are considering buying homes will hold off, waiting for the tax credit, second, it’s really bad policy, that cost taxpayers something like $80K for each additional home sold.

Now there have been tepid denials from HUD, but this sort of crap should not be happening.

Great Googly Moogly.

H/t Atrios.

Economics Update

It’s jobless Thursday, and initial claims fell back to what seems to be its sweet-spot, 473,000, with the less volatile 4-week moving average rising by 3250 to 486,750, and continuing claims falling by 62,000 to 4.46 million, though emergency claims, which are not counted as continuing, rose by 268,000 to 5.86 million, so we are still seeing a jobless nonrecovery, with initial claims about 100,000 more than what would be required for a recovery in the job market.

In real estate, foreclosures fell, but delinquencies rose in the 2nd quarter, which likely indicates that people are still doing worse, but the various moratoria, as well as what Atrios accurately calls the, “Treasury’s predatory lending program,” aka HAMP, is pushing the problem down the road.

Oh, and the Dow is below 10K again, which means nothing in the greater scheme of things.

Economics Update

Yep, and the news is not any improvement over yesterday.

New home sales came out today for July, and they hit a 40-year low, and the price of a new home fell to a 7 year low.

When juxtaposed with the fact that , you can see how things get ugly.

And the consumer is continuing to deleverage, which is one reason why consumer credit card debt has fallen to an 8 year low, though part of this is the 2005 bankruptcy laws, which is driving people to default on their mortgages in favor of paying down credit card debt:

Changes to the US bankruptcy code, enacted in 2005, are coming back to haunt banks, according to Yra Harris, a veteran trader at Praxis Trading.

Harris told CNBC that banks lobbied hard for changes to the bankruptcy code, but the legislation is now having the effect of encouraging consumers to do all they can to pay down their credit cards, while leaving their mortgage payments on the backburner.

Karma is a bitch.

In many states, mortgages are non-recourse loans, so once they have the house, they cannot go after the consumer, while in every state, credit card companies can attach wages, etc., so, rather unsurprisingly, consumers are running the numbers and making their choices.

Said consumers are not spending.

I’m beginning to think that absent a 20-40% devaluation in the value of the US dollar, we won’t be out of this mess for a decade or more.

Holy Crap

Click for full size


Scary picture h/t Calculated Risk

They, whoever “they” are, were predicting that existing home sales would be fall post tax credit to an annual rate of something north of 4½ million.

Well, they were wrong. Existing home sales fell to 3.83 million, a 15 year low, and the 27.2% drop was the biggest since they, whoever “they” are, started collecting data.

What’s more, housing inventory has risen from 8.9 months to 12.5 months since May.

The thing is, this was foreseeable. Everything that has been done in terms of real estate has been about extend and pretend.

Whether it’s the fraud perpetrated on desperate people through HAMP, or the ruinously wasteful home buyer tax credits, this has all been about propping up housing prices in the short term in the hope that the banks can nickel and dime small consumers to generate enough profits to dig themselves out of their hole.

They keep pushing the sh%$ up hill, expecting to reach the crest of the hill, and it ain’t happening, and now this pile is collapsing back down on us.

Recovery my ass.

No, They Are Cruel People*

I enjoy reading Felix Salmon, and I generally agree with him, but a few days ago, he had a high level and sort of (no names) off the record briefing senior Treasury Department officials, including Timmy, and they revealed that the failure that is HAMP is actually a success because by stringing desperate home owners along, they managed to milk a few more mortgage payments, and delay foreclosures for a while:

Treasury told Waldman — and told my group of bloggers, too — that HAMP, even if it was a failure, was a success. It might not have helped much in terms of its ostensible stated aim of permanently modifying millions of home loans. But it did help in at least three other ways: it gave temporary tax and payment relief to millions of homeowners; it massively reduced the rate at which homeowners in default were being foreclosed on; and, in the words of Waldman, “it helped banks muddle through what might have been a fatal shock”.

We had to save the banks, so if we destroyed a few lives, it was worth it. This is contemptible.

Maybe Andrew Breitbart should cover this, that would get Geithner fired, because Obama trembles at Breitbart’s fury.

Truth be told though, the definitive account is by Steve Waldman, and his account of this exchange is even more damning:

The conversation next turned to housing and HAMP. On HAMP, officials were surprisingly candid. The program has gotten a lot of bad press in terms of its Kafka-esque qualification process and its limited success in generating mortgage modifications under which families become able and willing to pay their debt. Officials pointed out that what may have been an agonizing process for individuals was a useful palliative for the system as a whole. Even if most HAMP applicants ultimately default, the program prevented an outbreak of foreclosures exactly when the system could have handled it least. There were murmurs among the bloggers of “extend and pretend”, but I don’t think that’s quite right. This was extend-and-don’t-even-bother-to-pretend. The program was successful in the sense that it kept the patient alive until it had begun to heal. And the patient of this metaphor was not a struggling homeowner, but the financial system, a.k.a. the banks. Policymakers openly judged HAMP to be a qualified success because it helped banks muddle through what might have been a fatal shock. I believe these policymakers conflate, in full sincerity, incumbent financial institutions with “the system”, “the economy”, and “ordinary Americans”. Treasury officials are not cruel people. I’m sure they would have preferred if the program had worked out better for homeowners as well. But they have larger concerns, and from their perspective, HAMP has helped to address those.

(emphasis mine)

I think that he is wrong. They are cruel people, and they are evil people, and they know the evil that they do, but they think that the preservation of Wall Street, and its excessive bonuses to be worth perpetrating a fraud on desperate families grasping at straws.

These people were drowning, and they knowingly threw them anvils.

*That is what Atrios said.

Barney Frank: Missing the Lede on the GSEs

The headline, of course is that he is calling for the gradual elimination of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:

“I think they should be abolished,” Frank said. “The only question is what do you put in their place. This is a situation where given the importance they had come to play in housing, you can’t tear down the old jail until you build a new one. And that’s a process that we’ve started.”

This is legitimately a big news story, but the rest of his proposal is far more revolutionary. He is a calling for an end to government subsidies to home buyers:

Frank went on: “I have been very critical for a long time that not everybody should be a homeowner. There are people in this society who for economic and frankly social reasons can’t and shouldn’t be homeowners. I do want some government help to build affordable rental housing.”

It’s this 2nd point that is a big deal. While the GSEs (Government Sponsored Entities) were a vanishingly small part of the housing bubble, as house prices exploded, their share of the market fell precipitously, what was a huge part of the market was the enormous subsidies made available to both home buyers, sellers, builders, and agents.

This distorted the market in some very profound ways, and it is very likely that if these measures had not been in place, we would have seen neither the bubble nor the crash.

We sacrificed our economy on the alter of home ownership.

Economics Update

Click for full size


Capacity Utilization


Industrial Production
H/t Calculated Risk

Retail sales rose, but missed forecasts for July, the comment of an economist quoted in the story, “The numbers are consistent with a sluggish consumer profile,” is kind of well duh thing.

Hopefully the indications that the big banks are relaxing their lending standards for small businesses for the first time in 4 years.

This is good news, since banks have increasingly attempted to move small business customers from loans to corporate credit cards, where the fees and interest, and hence bank profits, are higher.

On the consumer side, credit card delinquencies fell to the lowest level this year, which could mean that more people are getting back on their feet (good), or that more consumers are deleveraging (mostly bad, see Thrift, Paradox of).

I’m inclined to believe that it is mostly the latter, particularly since bankruptcy filings hit a 5-year high in the 2nd quarter.

We are seeing some good news in industrial production and capacity utilization, which continue a relatively robust recovery, though a lot of this gain was increased electricity consumption from a record breaking July, though a fair amount is also autos which is an unambiguously good sign. (See also the chart pr0n)

The New York Fed’s economic activity index rose in August, but again, it missed forecasts.

In the land of the blithering idiots inflation hawks, the UK district is reporting that British CPI rose at a 3.1% annual rate, down from June’s 3.2% rate, which has the inflation hawk piggies squealing that they are missing the 2% target, but as Krugman would say, we are in a liquidity trap, we need more inflation so that real interests rates (interest – inflation) is low enough to foster growth.

I would go further than Krugman, and say that both the Bank of England and the Fed should have a 6-8% target inflation rate for the next 4 years or so.

And then we have real estate, where the market seems to be deflating like the Hindenberg* following the expiration of the home buying tax credit.

Housing starts rose, but fell well short of forecasts in July, home prices flattened out in June, and home builder confidence fell in August.

*I know that the Hindenberg did not deflate, it burnt and crashed. That’s my point of this mangled metaphor, OK?

Economics Update (a Day Late)

It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims rose to the highest level in 6 months, 484,000 claims, the highest number since February 20, well over forecasts of 465,000.

Additionally, the 4 week moving average jumped to 473,500 from 459,250 , though continuing claims fell by 18,000 to 4,452,000, though, as always, that reflects discouraged workers, as well as people going past the 26 week window.

In real estate, foreclosures rose again, and RealtyTrac is not anticipating a peak until some time in 2011, and mortgage rates fell to the4.44% (!), the lowest since Freddie Mac started its survey in 1971.

Economics Update

Consumers are continuing to deleverage, (Thrift, Paradox of) with outstanding consumer debt falling for the 5th straight month, so people are still not spending.

On the brighter side, rail traffic increased in July YoY, though business productivity fell for the first time in 1½ years in the 2nd quarter. Additionally, this report shows that household income fell.….Not good.

It’s not surprising that the National Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index fell for the 2nd straight month.

Meanwhile, the June Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Jolts) report showed hiring slowing in June.

Finally, despite record breaking low rates, mortgage were flat this week.

Economics Update

It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims rose again, by 19,000 to 479,000, with four-week moving average increased by 5,250 to 458,500, and continuing claims fell by 34,000 to 4.54 million, though a lot of this may be people running out their string on normal benefits.

I would note that this number has been bouncing between 450K and 480K for a few months, and that this number is around 100,000 more than is needed for a recovery in employment.

Meanwhile, in central bank land, the Bank of England kept its benchmark rate at ½%, effectively 0%, and it’s asset purchase program, aka quantitative easing, aka printing money, remains essentially unchanged.

Finally, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit an all time low, 4.49%. (!)

Economics Update

We have a fair amount of news, most of it bad, with consumer spending and personal income flat, pending home sales falling sharply in June, and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey falling more than expected, though the latter still indicates (rather anemic) growth.

Additionally, we have the Wells Fargo/Gallup survey of small business sentiment hitting a new low, while personal bankruptcy filings rose 9% in July.

As to the good news, we have…

We have…

We have…

We have…

Ummmm…A survey of economic mood in Europe hitting two-year high?

Normally I Don’t Comment on Local Rulings of Local Landmarks Preservation Commission

Only this time, it was the New York City Landmarks Preservation Commission ruling that the location for the Islamic center and mosque in lower Manhattan is not historically significant, allowing for construction to proceed.

This puts them on a higher moral plane than Abraham Foxman’s ADL, but considering his recent history, the geriatric leader of the ADL does not set a particularly high bar.

Economics Update

The obvious lede here is the fact that the Fed has released its Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, better known as the Beige Book, which was not good, weakening slightly from June’s Beige Book, but it is not downright awful.

This is the already anemic stimulus, and a mild restoration of inventories running out of steam.

If you want some more detail, you can look at the Dallas, Richmond Fed Manufacturing surveys have shown a sluggish economy, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index has fallen.

We are also seeing that consumer confidence fell to a 6 month low in June.

Additionally real estate is really pretty pathetic, with the number of renters skyrocketing as the home ownership rate has hit an 11 year low, so much for the Bush/Greenspan real estate wealth.

Note that home sales did rise sharply in June, over an expiration-of-the-tax-credit crippled May, but it still was the worst June ever recorded.

Mortgage news was mixed though, with mortgage applications falling slightly, though the number of applications for home purchases rose slightly.

Finally, durable goods orders fell for the 2nd straight month in June.

Economics Update

It’s jobless Thursday initial claims rose by 37,000 to a 464,000 (seasonally adjusted), worse than forecast, with the less noisy 4 week moving average rising by 1,250 to 456,000, though continuing claims fell by 223,000 to 4.49 million.

In real estate, the inventory of homes for sales has risen year over year, and existing home sales fell in June.

They will fall in July as well, since we are still seeing the tailing off of closings from contracts that were signed before the tax credit expired.

About the only thing that shows any hope in the housing market is that mortgage rates continue to fall, though they really running up against the zero bound.

Economics Update

Well, if consumers are 70% of the economy, the fact that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence index numbers fell to a nearly 1 year low.

This, along with a falling consumer price index, which indicates that a deflationary spiral may be nearer than we would like, are not good news.

Additionally, notwithstanding heroic/stupid efforts to prop up the housing bubble, home builder confidence has hit a 15 month low.

On the brighter side, Moody’s survey of commercial real estate prices is rose in May, and the National Association for Business Economics’ latest survey of employers is showing that employers are looking to hire more than they were a year ago, though admittedly, that is not saying much.

Economics Update

Well, it’s jobless Thursday, and the initial unemployment claims number have fallen to a 2 year low, 429,000, though it should be noted that these are seasonally adjusted, and so this number takes into account, for example, GM’s summer shutdown, which did not happen this year, though, as the author notes, the fact that GM is seeing that much business is a good sign in and of itself.

Unsurprisingly, the 4 week moving average fell as well, though continuing claims rose.

On the other side of the coin, we are seeing a number of non-employment metrics weakening, with falling producer prices, foreshadowing incipient deflation, while both the New York Fed and the Philadelphia Fed numbers have softened.

In real estate, home foreclosures rose 38% year over year in the 2ndquarter.