Category: regulation

Economics Update

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We have a bumpy road ahead on the economy, with
retail sales falling 1.1% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling 1.2%, both of which indicating that there are still deflationary and recessionary pressures out there.

In regulation, there is finally an Obama choice to run the TARP, Fannie Mae CEO Herb Allison, replacing Bush holdover Neel “Cash and Carry” Kashkari, who along with Hank Paulson, should be in jail for the fraud perpetrated on the US taxpayers.

We also have some news from the moniliner insurers, after a long break, with Moody’s downgrading Ambac to junk status.

Dead man walking.

That being said, there are more signs that credit is thawing, with the LIBOR, the rate big banks charge each other for loans, falling at the fastest rate in 3 months.

In currency, we have news from Asia, where Singapore has devalued its currency by lowering interest rates in an attempt to stem its recession, the idea being that its export based economy would be boosted by a falling currency.

This is a fairly limited option for most nations, as many nations that need the help are debtor nations, while Singapore is a creditor nation.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is up vs. the Euro and down vs the Yen.

Oil fell below $50/bbl today.

HOGRC to Investigate Accusations that White House is Moving to Subvert Executive Pay Restrictions

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Rep. Edolphus Towns (D-N.Y.), chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, has sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Geithner demanding informanton on any special purpose entities that might be used to avoid executive compensation limits.

As I noted about a week ago, it appears that the Treasury is setting up dummy entities to avoid executive pay limits (scroll down), and now it appears that some of members of Congress are sitting up and beginning to sit up and take notice.

Economics Update

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We have a report that consumer confidence is improving, according to the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index, which rose to 49.1 from 45.3, which is only slightly pessimistic, 50 being neutral.

I have no idea if the folks at at Investors Business Daily/TIPP actually run a good poll, but it does look like consumer confidence is up a bit, though the Federal Reserve’s view of the economy remains gloomy.

Certainly with wholesale inventories falling by 1.5% in February, the largest drop in 17 years, there are some bright spots here, because as inventories fall, orders have to be made to restock.

The same cannot be said for commercial real estate, with
mall vacancies at a 10-Year high, and office t rents falling significantly in San Francisco.(-24% year over year !)

Rents fell for apartments in Southern California and nation wide too, which tends to mitigate the impetus for people to buy homes, so I think that the continued increase in mortgage applications is still largely Refi activity.

The credit markets still suck which is why the Fed is looking at offering longer term loans at a higher interest rate for TALF, even as participation in the program is less than anticipated, indicating that investors are still leery of investing in things like mortgage backed securities.

In international finance, Fitch has followed S&P’s lead, and downgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt.

The Treasury has expanded TARP to cover insurance companies, including some of the very big names, such as Hartford, Prudential, and Met Life.

This Problem is getting smaller, not bigger.

Finally, both oil and the US dollar rose today, on a less then expected inventory for the former, and a flight to safety for the latter.

Why the US Mobile Phone Industry is a Horrible Model for the Internet

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The advocacy group Free Press has filed a complaint with the FCC over Apple and AT&T’s ban on the use of Skype on their network.

The money quote on this is from a typically clueless AT&T spokesman, “Customers are free to download and use the apps they want, but we have no obligation—nor should we have—to facilitate or subsidize our competitors’ businesses.”

It sounds reasonable, but what is really going on here is that AT&T is using monopoly power, it is the exclusive licensee for the iPhone in the US, and it’s customers incur hefty roaming charges on other networks, in order to lock a potential competitor out on a service that their customers have paid for.

This is why network neutrality is necessary, and it is yet another example as to how the US privatized largely unregulated telco markets do not serve the consumer: it creates businesses whose model is largely predicated on creating, and maintaining, a monopoly.

A Little Gem in the FDIC Job Postings

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Peterr at Firedoglake was looking at job postings on the FDIC website, and saw something that was probably not intended for the general public, specifically some job postings by the FDIC that may indicate that there will be some very big fish on a path to be caught in the FDIC’s net.

First, there is a posting for a Deputy Chief Accountant (announcement number 2009-EM-0096) who is responsible for, “identifying emerging accounting, auditing, and taxation issues, particularly those raising systemic concerns, for which the timely development of policy guidance for FDIC -supervised and -insured institutions and the Division’s examination staff is critical” (emphasis mine).

“Raising systemic concerns?” Sound like anyone we know? As Peterr notes, it looks like part of their duties will be teasing out responsibilities amongst other financial regulators, which may involve putting a finger in the eye of Timothy “Too Big to Allow to Fail” Geithner’s Treasury Department.

Additionally, there are two openings for two Senior Large Financial Institution Specialist (announcement number 2009-HQD-B1089) located in New York, NY and Charlotte, NC, which are where the HQ’s of Citi and BoA are located, though obviously there are many financial institutions with headquarters in the New York City area, as well as a Chief, Examination Support and Risk Analysis Section (announcement number 2009-HQDEU-1113), who seems to be in charge of “Formulates, refines, and updates supervisory expectations relative to Basel II implementation efforts,” which means risk evaluation of banks.

Additionally, we have Treasury announcing a delay in the reporting the results of the stress tests, “until after the first-quarter earnings season.”

People do not delay good news.

I wouldn’t expect anything this Friday on one of the big 20 financial institutions, but it could get interesting in a few weeks.

TARP Overseer Calls for Bank Execs to Be Fired

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Elizabeth Warren, the head of the TARP oversight commission is calling for executives at TARP recipients to be fired, and their shareholders to be whiped out, saying, “It is crucial for these things to happen. Japan tried to avoid them and just offered subsidy with little or no consequences for management or equity investors, and this is why Japan suffered a lost decade.”

It appears that her report will specifically mention Citi and AIG.

Your mouth to God’s ear, Dr. Warren.

Wall Street Self Dealing Again

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Zero Hedge is reporting that there are strong indications that Wall Street firms are going back to their Dotbomb era practice of swapping favorable ratings for analysts in exchange for business underwriting their IPOs:

1) First Merrill Lynch/BofA gets clients to subscribe to a massively diluting equity offering (105 million new shares out of 271 million pre-offering shares, or 39% dilution). The offering prices at $7.10/share, a 6% discount to the previous day closing price of $7.49. In the process Merrill pockets an underwriting fee likely equal to 3% of the offering or around $20 million.

2) Minutes after the offering Merrill REIT analyst Schmidt comes out with a report, changing the recommendation on the stock from a Sell to a Buy, thereby getting the vanilla money which makes critical fiduciary decisions merely based on what some sell-side analyst will recommend. As a result Kimco stock rises throughout the day and closes at $9.40, a 25% premium to the closing price, and a 30% premium to offering price of $7.10, which closed that very same day.

…

Go read the rest. It’s pretty damning, and yet another indication that at least 1 in 10 of the brokers, executives, and analysts on Wall Street should be under criminal investigation.

Obama’s Bank Plan Worse Than Thought

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Jeffrey Sachs has looked at the plan, and his assessment is that it is far worse than previously believed, noting that, “Insiders can easily game the system created by Geithner and Summers to cost up to a trillion dollars or more to the taxpayers.”

Basically, it means that the banks can set up off the balance sheet subsidiaries to over pay for the assets, and when they go bankrupt, the federal government is left holding the bag:

Citibank thereby receives $1 million for the worthless asset, while the CPPIF ends up with an utterly worthless asset against $850K in debt to the FDIC. The CPPIF therefore quietly declares bankruptcy, while Citibank walks away with a cool $1 million. Citibank’s net profit on the transaction is $925K (remember that the bank invested $75K in the CPPIF) and the taxpayers lose $925K. Since the total of toxic assets in the banking system exceeds $1 trillion, and perhaps reaches $2-3 trillion, the amount of potential rip-off in the Geithner-Summers plan is unconscionably large.

This is so stupid and corrupt that Larry Summers has to be the guy who came up with this.

More on Larry Summers Corruption

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It looks like the New York Times is now covering the sweetheart deal he got working for a hedge fund, and we now know that not only was it a part time job that got him paid $5.2 million, but he worked there just 1 day a week!

Truth be told, he may have done more work, as he, “routinely made himself available for private consultations with Shaw’s clients, an attractive perk for investing with the firm, as one client put it.”

What this really means is that in 2008, it was clear that he would be a senior official if either Obama or Clinton became President, and clients were attracted by the potential of that access, and he got special treatment as a result:

When investors rushed en masse to withdraw their money from hedge funds last year, Shaw asserted its right to block redemptions from its fund. An exception was made for Mr. Summers, however, because the White House job he was taking required him to divest.

This is deeply corrupt, if not in law, then in fact.

He didn’t “have” to divest. He could have placed it in a blind trust.

Economics Update

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Scary Economic Pic of the Day Courtesy of Brad Delong
And, yes, the really bad line is right now

The first bit of news is kind of “inside Baseball,” with
the central banks of the US, UK, EU, and Switzerland agreeing to currency swaps totaling $285 billion with each other.

Basically this means the banks can borrow that amount from each other in various currencies and then use it to stabilize their currencies.

Truth be told, I have no clue as to what it means, except that there have been rumblings that the Swiss are near a deflationary spiral, and might want to depress the CHF to forestall that.

Since it looks like commodities prices are down significantly, most notably copper and oil over the past 6 months or so, the worries about deflation are not just an abstract concept here.

It also looks like Canada is moving toward quantitative easing (printing money) which is pushing the Loonie down, and the dollar rose against other currencies as well, as people moved into a perceived safe haven.

Bush and His Evil Minions&trade Really Did Destroy Everything that They Touched

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In this case, it’s 401(k) plans that they destroyed, by issuing regulations on automatically subscribed employees that directed them to riskier investments:

Shortly before the first signs of the stock market collapse, the Bush administration made a crucial decision that has propelled an estimated one to two million workers into stock-heavy retirement funds.

Many of the funds in which workers were automatically enrolled dropped more than 25 percent last year, while a more conservative investment strategy rejected by the Bush administration would have resulted in a gain of 4.7 percent.

The administration’s decisions came in response to a congressional mandate to encourage more workers to participate in company-sponsored retirement savings plans. The Bush administration came up with a rule that enabled businesses to automatically enroll their workers in tax-free 401(k) retirement plans.

If the workers failed to specify how they wanted their money invested, the company would be required by law to place their retirement money in investment funds that, for the most part, relied heavily on stocks. The administration specifically rejected calls for a more conservative investment option.

You know, even a stopped clock is right twice a day, but that’s better than George Walker Bush.

Truth be told, they had a reason for this: They were desperately trying to get money to the stock market, in order to prop up prices in preparation for the election, so it’s more corrupt than stupid.

Patience My Ass…..

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You know, for some time, it seems that any time someone complains that Obama’s economic team is too close to the banks, the answer is that we are seeing some sort of chess game, and it’s just that the White House is 3 steps ahead of everyone else.

I don’t buy it. I think that Larry Summers just jumped the shark into accepting bribes, as this Wall Street Journal analysis of his 2008 disclosure forms shows.

Among other things, he got $5.2 million from hedge fund D.E. Shaw for his thoroughly part time (he was a full time professor at Harvard) position, and he got $2.7 million for speaking, with his fees ranging from, “$10,000 for a Yale University speech to $135,000 for an appearance paid for by Goldman Sachs & Co.”

So we know that the market rate for his speeches is about $10K, but Wall Street investment firms were paying more than 10 times that in a year in which the Democrats were favored, and he was likely to be on the team of either Democratic nominee.

A Tiny Revolution went through his disclosure form (PDF) and came up with the following, with Merrill-Lynch being a week after the election, and Charles River Ventures being the day before:

  • GIANT BAILOUT SECTOR
    • Goldman Sachs: $202,500 (two speeches)
    • Citigroup: $99,000 (two speeches)
    • JP Morgan: $67,500
    • Merrill Lynch: $45,000 (donated to charity)
  • DOMESTIC FINANCIAL SECTOR
    • Investec Bank: $157,500
    • State Street Corporation: $112,500
    • Pricewaterhouse Coopers LLC: $67,500
    • Lehman Brothers: $67,500
    • American Express: $67,500
    • Siguler Guff & Company (private equity): $67,500
    • TA Associates (private equity): $67,500
    • Charles River Ventures (Venture Capital): $67,500
  • FOREIGN FINANCIAL SECTOR
    • Skagen Funds (Scandinavian mutual fund): $180,000 (three speeches)
    • Centro de Liderazgo y Gestion (the Center for Leadership and Management, in Colombia): $112,500
    • Association of Mexican Bankers: $90,000
  • OTHER
    • Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association: $33,750
    • Pension Real Estate Association: $67,500
    • Hudson Institute: $10,000

It should be noted that the Hudson institute is a very right wing “think” tank which has consistently been dogged by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, and it’s at the same “market rate” as Yale.

I can’t see this as anything but bribe taking, with the various financial institutions paying forward to get favorable treatment.

What sort of treatment were the looking for? Well, there was probably not a specific request, a quid pro quo, if you will, but something like the White House coming up with phony entities to act as intermediaries in order to skirt Congressional limitations on executive compensation:

The Obama administration is engineering its new bailout initiatives in a way that it believes will allow firms benefiting from the programs to avoid restrictions imposed by Congress, including limits on lavish executive pay, according to government officials.

Administration officials have concluded that this approach is vital for persuading firms to participate in programs funded by the $700 billion financial rescue package.

You know, the threat of being frog marched out of their workplace in handcuffs would work better.

The administration believes it can sidestep the rules because, in many cases, it has decided not to provide federal aid directly to financial companies, the sources said. Instead, the government has set up special entities that act as middlemen, channeling the bailout funds to the firms and, via this two-step process, stripping away the requirement that the restrictions be imposed, according to officials.

Although some experts are questioning the legality of this strategy, the officials said it gives them latitude to determine whether firms should be subject to the congressional restrictions, which would require recipients to turn over ownership stakes to the government, as well as curb executive pay.

The administration has decided that the conditions should not apply in at least three of the five initiatives funded by the rescue package.

…

Enough is enough.

This is more than being too close to the financial sector, this is corruption, and it pervades Obama’s economic team.

Larry Summers, and possibly Timothy Geithner, need to spend more time with their families.

Federal Home Loan Board Chairman Resigns Over Changes in Mark to Market Rules

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FHLB Chairman Charles Bowsher has resigned, saying that under the new rules, he would be unable in good conscience to vouch for the accuracy of the various FHLB banks financial statements following the relaxation of rules by the Federal Accounting Standards Board (FASB) on illiquid assets, and he talked with Jonathan Weil about it:

I was not comfortable as an audit-committee member in signing off on the financial statements, after I became aware of the standards and processes for valuing the mortgage-backed securities

An honest banker, who knew?

A broken, corrupt, and dishonest system….everyone knows that.

Banks Are Already Gaming Geithner’s Bad Bank Plan

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Gee, this is a surprise, banks are looking to buy each others’ mortgage backed securities, essentially swapping their own crap for someone else’s crap plus a 50+% subsidy.

For once, I find a Republican who has a clue

Spencer Bachus, the top Republican on the House financial services committee, vowed after being told of the plans by the FT to introduce legislation to stop financial institutions ”gaming the system to reap taxpayer-subsidized windfalls”.

Mr Bachus added it would mark ”a new level of absurdity” if financial institutions were ”colluding to swap assets at inflated prices using taxpayers’ dollars.”

I have to say, in reviewing Geithner’s history, I do not believe that this was an error, but rather something that he intended.

I believe Geithner is Wall Streets bitch, and that this is just another instance when he strapped on the knee pads.

Senate Budget Bill Forces Fed to Name Names

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In response to the Federal Reserve impeding attempts to get information as to the institutions that they have aided, the Senate has inserted a provision in the budget that would, “require the Fed to identify each firm it has given assistance to, how much the assistance was worth, and what the firm is doing with the money..”

Unfortunately, it appears that it won’t make it to the President’s desk, at least not according to a, “senior Democratic Senate aide,” but it would be a good thing.