Category: regulation

Barney Frank Walks Away from Fed as System Risk Regulator

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It looks like there will be some real good coming from the AIG bonus fiasco, as Barney Frank is taking a few steps back from his idea of the Federal Reserve as the über regulator of the economy:

A proposal to put the Federal Reserve in charge of market oversight is losing congressional support after its main backer, Barney Frank, said criticism over American International Group Inc. “undercuts” his proposal.

“There’s still a need for a systemic-risk regulator,” Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, said yesterday. “The argument for the Fed alone has lost a lot of political support. I think that’s now got to be re-looked at.”

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd and Richard Shelby, the panel’s top Republican, said March 19 they are reluctant to expand the Fed’s role, faulting the central bank for lapses leading to the financial crisis.

When one considers how opaque the operations of the Federal Reserve are, and how, of all the regulatory agencies, it was the one that failed the worst, the others being hamstrung through legislation or executive initiative, Dodd and Shelby are right to be dubious of the fed.

Just ask yourself this question: Do you want Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan to be the systemic risk regulator for the economy?

Scatological Explanation of the Geithner Plan

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So, I was on a private BBS formed out of the ashes of Netslaves, and someone asked the following:

CNN keeps talking about it raising the DOW today, but I have no idea what it actually is supposed to do.

So I quickly riffed on this, and the response was very positive, so I thought that I should share my (somewhat profane) explanation with the world:

Short:

  • Place your hand in your pocket.
  • Remove wallet
  • Hand to Wall Street Executive.

Longer version:

  • The Treasury/FDIC/FED will make non recourse loans to allow investors to buy into the big sh@#pile of mortgage backed securities (MBS), credit default swaps (CDS) and other alphabet soup so that they buyer will put down about 3% for a 20% stake in this sh@#.
  • A non recourse loan means that if the investment fails, the lender (i.e. the taxpayer) takes back the sh@#, and the loan is settled, basically, they are only out their 3% (or less) down payment.
  • Basically, it’s a subsidy to the big banks and investment houses, who created the sh@#, because the small investor cannot get the sh@# for cash deal without going through the big banks and investment houses, and paying a sh@# load of commissions.
  • This has the effect of creating a taxpayer subsidy for the sh@# that is (at least, there are other programs that feed in) of at least 30%.
  • So eat your sh@# sandwich, and know that somewhere a Wall Street banker is spending your money on some prostitute to sh@# on him.

What can I say but sh@#?

Bernie Sanders Blocks Gensler as CFTC Chairman

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I wholeheartedly approve of the distinguished gentleman’s decision to place a hold on the nomination of Gary Gensler to be chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Gensler (along with Geithner and Summers, but those guys are water under the bridge) fought long and hard for the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, first as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, and then as Undersecretary of the Treasury, which deregulated derivatives and swaps, and is one of the architects of the current meltdown, and Sanders is 100% correct in objecting to his having a any role in further regulation of derivatives.

Then there is also the matter of his brother being hip deep in Wall Street too, running a fund for T. Rowe Price, and Gary Gensler himself is another Goldman Sachs alum.

Enough is enough. We need people who aren’t the ones who created the problem in the first place in charge of policing those who were.

Un-dirtyword-believable, and good for Sanders to stand up for a semblance of competence and honesty in Barack Obama’s economic team.

Economics Update

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Since we’ve already covered the Geithner political suicide pact economic plan, let’s lead off with housing.

Happy, happy, joy, joy, home sales rose 5.1% in February relative to January, seasonally adjusted, though people not so closely attached to the realty industry have noted that it’s
really a pretty modest rise, or note that home sales have fallen year over year, and that about 45% of these sales are distressed in some manner.

I would say that year over year is the only metric to apply, because the so called “seasonal adjustment” if it ever were valid, has become meaningless in the current collapsing market.

Internationally, we have another member of the 0% benchmark club, as the Bank of Israel has cut its benchmark rate to 0.50%.

In currency and commodities, the dollar is down, because people are less concerned about safe havens, so there is less dollar flight to safety, and copper and oil rose.

It appears that these markets like Geithner’s plans, because, they are over paid and over bonused trader types, I guess.

Geithner’s* Plan

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So, the plan has been announced, and it’s pretty much what I said over the weekend: A massive subsidy to big investment firms, and the little guy can’t get in on the “3% down and that’s all you lose” deal.

It’s the buy the sh%$pile with taxpayer money thing all over again….and again….and again.

Geithner has an OP/ED in the Wall Street Journal,† where he rolls out the Treasury’s new weasel words for financial toxic waste, “Legacy Assets.”

I’m sure that he thinks of Chernobyl as an “accelerated sunshine facility” too.

We know that the financial masters of the universe love the subsidies, because players like BlackRock and Pimco are falling all over themselves to get in.

I won’t go over the problems with the plan here, you can look at my Saturday post for that, but the short form is that Wall Street is mugging you.

*Really Barack Obama’s plan, because he is where the buck stops, though a lot of the blame goes to Larry Summers too.
†Which, considering the WSJ’s editorial page reputation for outright deception, is utterly appropriate.

New York Times OP/ED Asks if Geithner/Summers/Bernanke is Obama’s Katrina Moment

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Frank Rich, who I generally find unobjectionable, but also unmemorable, asks this question, and I believe that he may be right.

I believe that Wall Street is being run by, and for, a corrupt class of overpaid crooks, and most of the country agrees with this, but Geithner/Summers/Bernanke believe that these folks posses the unique genius to fix the problem that they have created.

They are wrong, and unless, and until, the campaign to fix these things becomes a campaign against these folks too, a bit of reality that even perennial light weight Maureen Dowd gets, things will get worse.

These people don’t work for their banks or brokerages, they work for their own benefit at the expense of those banks or brokerages.

Geithner’s New Plan: Same Old, Same Old, Failure

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So, we now have a definitive leak of the features of Geithner’s plan to help the financial system, and it’s the same old, same old: The problem is not that the banks are insolvent, or that their assets are worthless piles of crap, it’s that the markets are just undervaluing them.

The basic provisions:

  • An auction of the big sh#@pile, which is a bad thing, because it only serves to expand taxpayer exposure.
  • The FDIC will lend about 85% of the money to buy this.
    • These FDIC loans will be non-recourse loans, which means that if those assets bought with that particular loan would be used to repay. Any further losses would be eaten by the taxpayer.
  • The Treasury will match, “the private money that each of the firms [4-5 investment firms hired by the Treasury, meaning Goldman and the rest of the usual suspects] puts up on a dollar-for-dollar basis with government money,” which means that the 15% that they have to buy to get the assets is now 7½%
  • The Treasury/Federal Reserve TALF lending program will be used to further expand lending to buy this toxic waste.

This is what Geithner has been pushing for a long time, some sort of program to overvalue assets at taxpayer expense, all while, “firmly against imposing any restrictions on pay for companies investing money in the rescue effort rather than receiving money from it,” except, of course, any participants in this are receiving federal money because of the subsidies.

Dean Baker notes that the that unlike Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner and Lawrence “Shoggoth” Summers and their Evil Minions™, the current market values of the securities are probably accurate, because real estate prices remain 20% above the historical trend, and if houses fall another 20%, these mortgage backed securities now selling for 30¢ on the dollar, which are the very top tranches, would be near a dime on the dollar.

Paul Krugman correctly calls it, “an open invitation to play heads I win, tails the taxpayers lose,” policy, and Calculated Risk and Yves Smith are similarly disparaging, though John Cole is the one who best nails the situation:

The Illness- reckless and irresponsible betting led to huge losses
The Diagnosis- Insufficient gambling.
The Cure- a Trillion dollar stack of chips provided by the house.
The Prognosis- We are so screwed.”

Seriously, tag team of Geithner/Summers may very well be worse for the economy than Hank Paulson.

For your amusement, here is Rep Brad Sherman (D-CA) opening up a can of whup ass on the CNBC Wall Street apologists

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The Cemeteries of the World are Full of Indispensable Men*

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The former chief economist of the IMF has an Op-Ed in the New York Times, and he makes the point that removing the “geniuses” who created the problem has to be the first step of fixing the problem:

A.I.G. can hardly claim that its generous bonuses attract the best and the brightest. So instead, it defends the payments by arguing they’re needed to retain employees who are crucial for winding down transactions that are “difficult to understand and manage.” In other words, only the people who stuck the knife into the American International Group can neatly extract it for a decent burial.

There is no reason to believe this.

Similar arguments made during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, when currencies and stock markets collapsed in much of Southeast Asia, turned out to be a smokescreen to protect the executives who were partly responsible for the mess. Recovery from that crisis required Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand to close or consolidate banks. In all three countries, bankers protested, claiming that their connections with borrowers were critical to recovery.

…

The lesson of all this is that when insiders have broken a financial institution, the most direct remedy is to kick them out. Traders are hardly in short supply, and you don’t need to rely on the ones who made the toxic trades in the first place. Companies must always plan around the potential departure of even their star traders, or they are certain to fail. A.I.G. does not need to keep all of its traders, especially since it takes far fewer people to unwind a portfolio than to build it up.

The longer that we put this off, the worse it will be.

*Charles de Gaulle, a man not known for his own sense of personal dispensablity, coined this bon mot.

Cows…Barn Doors…And the US Government

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So, we have the government looking to legislation giving them the authority that the FDIC does when it shuts down banks for not bank entities, such as bank holding companies and hedge funds.

And in related news, the FDIC is looking for additional authority to acutally write regulations, a function which is currently does not have.

It has strong enforcement powers, but, “but only the Federal Reserve, Office of Thrift Supervision and National Credit Union Administration can write the regulation it enforces.”

It’s about time.

More Nails in Eddie Haskell’s Coffin

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I think that Geithner will be gone by June….He should have rented a house, because we now have a report that Treasury was informed of the bonuses two weeks before Geithner says that he knew, which makes him either a liar, or incompetent.

Me, I’ll go with liar, as it is clear that the Obama administration is lying their asses off about Dodd’s role in proposed bonus restrictions in the bailout legislation, and the logical people lying about it right now are all on the Geithner/Summers “axis of weasels”:

After the recent furor relating to the AIG payments, lawmakers returned to make a forensic examination of the provision seeking to assign blame for what some called a secret agreement to spare the tottering insurance giant, which has received more than $170 billion in federal aid. The provision and its genesis consumed Capital Hill Wednesday.

“The president goes out and says this is not acceptable and then some backroom deal gets cut to let these things get paid out anyway,” said Sen. Ron Wyden, (D., Ore.), author of an earlier, alternative pay amendment, told the Associated Press.

The Obama administration had not tried to hide its concern about the moves to clamp down on executive compensation. Both Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers lobbied Mr. Dodd to make changes.

Administration officials said the Treasury didn’t suggest any language or say how the amendment should be changed. They said they noted legal issues that could likely lead to challenges, but was the end of their involvement. The official said Mr. Dodd and Congress made the final changes on their own.

At issue were competing provisions in the stimulus bill that capped executive compensation for recipients of bailout funds. One, drafted by Sens. Wyden and Olympia J. Snowe (R, Maine), would have capped bonuses at $100,000, retroactive to 2008. Companies awarding bonuses above that level would face the choice of returning those funds to the Treasury or having them taxed at 35%.

“Administration Officials” means someone under Geithner’s or Summers’ control here.

What’s more, the rest of the world does not have any confidence in Geithner either, as evidenced by the IMF criticizing his plan as “lacking detail.”

The IMF never criticizes a Secretary of the Treasury, and the fact that they are now indicates that there are a number of foreign nations that are sick of him, and signed off on this statement.

We need someone who will hold the financial industry to account, and Geithner still has knee pads on.

I’d Say It’s Self-Evident, Only Not

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Nemo at Self Evident makes a convincing case that Bernanke and Geithner are not doing anything but trying to protect the incumbent banking giants.

I agree. While we need a functioning credit system, there is no need for the current banks to continue to exist in their current form, and the Fed and Treasury’s frantic effort to keep these banks on life support is a detriment to the rest of the economy:

If I were in charge and I wanted to prevent banks from failing at all costs, what might I do?

I might relax mark-to-market accounting. This would allow assets to be carried at inflated valuations, both for purposes of regulatory capital requirements and for purposes of getting loans from the Fed.

I might provide non-recourse loans to private equity to create inflated marks where mark-to-market still applies.

I might try to convince the FDIC to exercise forbearance in seizing banks. Of course, the primary day-to-day mission of the folks at FDIC is to preserve the integrity of their insurance fund. So they might object to my suggestion. I might have to give them assurances that they will have the necessary resources should my great plan fail. A $500 billion credit line from the Treasury, say.

If the FDIC agreed, they might suddenly go from 3-4 bank seizures per week to 0-1 per week.

Once my plan leaked to certain troubled banks, they might suddenly halt their attempts to raise capital at $0.20/share.

And of course, once Wall Street got wind of it, shares in financial companies would rocket higher.

Let me know if you notice anything like this happening.

Good point, and good snark.

What Have They Got To Hide

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In this case, it’s the Federal Aviation Administration, which has a proposed rule to block public access to raw bird strike data:

The FAA says requests for data from the public “have typically been for specific data fields, individual airports or detailed portions of the database” and that responses from the agency “have addressed each request individually and adequately”.

However, the agency cautions public analysis of bits and pieces of the data could lead to inaccurate portrayals of airports and airlines, which could have a negative impact on their participation in reporting bird strikes.

So, they are saying that think that ordinary people are too stupid to understand the data.

More likely, they are covering something up, like certain airports being having a lot more problems with bird strikes, and the FAA, which is tasked with both regulating and promoting aviation, finds this information inconvenient.

Jeebus, AIG Again, Only This Time It’s the Whole Company

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If I’m reading Michael Hirsh right, the non financial products division part of AIG, the part that was supposed to be the well run real insurance company, may very well be insolvent too:

Thomas Gober, a former Mississippi state insurance examiner who has tracked fraud in the industry for 23 years and served previously as a consultant to the FBI and the Department of Justice, says he believes AIG’s supposedly solvent insurance business may be at least as troubled as its reckless financial-products unit. Far from being “healthy,” as state insurance regulators, ratings agencies and other experts have repeatedly described the insurance side, Gober calls it “a house of cards.” Citing numerous documents he has obtained from state insurance regulators and obscure data buried in AIG’s own 300-page annual reports, Gober argues that AIG’s 71 interlocking domestic U.S. insurance subsidiaries are in hock to each other to an astonishing degree.

Seriously, we need to start sending people to jail.

Timothy “Eddiy Haskell” Geithner Dead Pool

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Well, notwithstanding the obvious, that Geithner is unwilling to do the tough things, and that he keeps coming back to the bad bank, but it may very well be the AIG bonus fiasco that does him in.

Ignoring the fact that Geithner was at the center of the first AIG bailout, we are now seeing the signs of panics with Treasury department pointing the finger at Senator Chris Dodd, despite the fact that it was Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers who waged all out war against meaningful regulation of executive bonuses, and Dodd proposed strong regulations against excessive bonuses:

(4) a prohibition on such TARP recipient paying or accruing any bonus, retention award, or incentive compensation during the period that the obligation is outstanding to at least the 25 most highly-compensated employees, or such higher number as the Secretary may determine is in the public interest with respect to any TARP recipient;

What’s more, we are now seeing that the Washington Post editorial page, in the person of Harold Meyerson is now calling Geithner the bank’s bitch:

But Geithner’s indulgence of bankers’ indulgences is fast becoming the Obama administration’s Achilles’ heel. The AIG debacle is the latest in a series of bewildering Geithner decisions that threaten to undermine the administration’s efforts to restart the economy. So long as it’s Be Kind to Bankers Week at Treasury — and we’ve had eight straight such weeks since the president was inaugurated — American banking, and the economy it is supposed to serve, will remain paralyzed. The Geithner plan to restart the banks provides huge taxpayer subsidies to hedge funds, investment banks and private equity companies to buy the banks’ toxic assets without really having to assume the risk. That’s right — the same Wall Street wizards who got us into this mess, using the same securitization techniques that built mountains of debt within a shadow financial system that remains unregulated, are the saviors whom Geithner has anointed to extricate us — with our capital, not theirs — from the mess that they created.

It isn’t entirely fair: It was clear that this is what Timothy Geithner was when Obama first nominated him, so it is fair to say that Geithner’s policies are Obama’s policies.

One hopes that Obama dumps the policy, and Geithner (and Summers) shortly.

In the meantime, the Republicans are pulling their knives out with Representative Connie Mack (R-FL) and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) are directly or indirectly calling for Geithner’s ouster.

I can’t believe that I am saying this, but Obama should listen to them.

Economics Update

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So, we saw a
0.4% increase in the consumer price index in February, which is the highest rate since July, even if that is just a 5% rate.

Truth be told, I’m not sure if this is good news, reduced possibility of inflation, or a sign that the dollars that are flooding our economy are creating an inflation spiral.

In either case, we have another indicator that the real estate market is no where near a turn around, the bump in February building permits not withstandint: the Architecture Billings Index remains near a record low, and this is a leading indicator.

The spike in jump in mortgage applications does not really mean much, as it is primarily refi activity driven by low mortgage rates.

Internationally, we have a number of developments:

In energy, oil fell on the pessimistic report from the Federal reserve despite assurances of the House of Saud that OPEC will really follow the quota this time….really…for sure. (I don’t believe it either)

Finally, the news that the Fed is printing about a trillion more dollars pushed the dollar down.

Fed Goes Quantitative Easing

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At least that’s how I read their purchasing government debt and more mortgage backed securities: Printing money, about $1 trillion.

The markets appear to be loving this, but I’m more concerned about how gloomy the normally excessively cheerful Bernanke Fed is, in the first ‘graph.

Full Fed statement:

Press Release

Release Date: March 18, 2009
For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract. Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment. U.S. exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have also fallen into recession. Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth.

In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months. The Federal Reserve has launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses and anticipates that the range of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in light of evolving financial and economic developments.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

FASB Moves Toward Giving Lunatics Control of the Asylum

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Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) looks to have caved, and its moving to significantly weaken mark to market accounting.

This is very bad news in the long term, and, because, “would be able to apply the revised rule to their first-quarter financial statements,” we are going to see a bunch of very rosy results from the banking sector, but this will all be lies.

This is a bad move.