Category: Russia

Another Indication of Just How Long the Damage Will Last

No Comments

Because this was unthinkable just 5 or 6 years ago:

Latin American and Caribbean leaders gathering in Brazil tomorrow will mark a historic occasion: a region-wide summit that excludes the United States.

Almost two centuries after President James Monroe declared Latin America a U.S. sphere of influence, the region is breaking away. From socialist-leaning Venezuela to market-friendly Brazil, governments are expanding military, economic and diplomatic ties with potential U.S. adversaries such as China, Russia and Iran.

and in addition to China and Russia, guess who’s coming to dinner?

The two-day gathering, called by Brazil at a beach resort in Bahia state, is also a diplomatic triumph for Cuban President Raul Castro, making his first trip abroad since taking over from his brother Fidel two years ago. The communist island was suspended from the hemisphere-wide Organization of American States in 1962 over its ties with the former Soviet Union.

We will be suffering major ill effect is Bush and His Evil Minions™ well after I am dead.

Economics Update

No Comments

Well, retail sales numbers for November are grim, down 7.4% from November 2007, and that’s with an adjustment for a late Thanksgiving that is probably excessive, so it is likely worse.

Consumer sentiment rose, but is still at a pretty awful number.

We also saw wholesale prices fall, which can be either good news, moderating inflation, or bad news, deflation.

Overseas, we have the EU found agreement on an economic stimulus pack, with even Angela Merkel backing off Hoovernomics by a half step.

In Japan, a new economic stimulus package has been announced.

Russia, however, is being hammered by low oil prices, and senior officials are now saying that the nation is in recession.

As to currencies, the dollar was mixed, up versus the Pound, down a smidge versus the Euro, and at a 13 year low versus the Yen.

I’m not sure how much of this is all just a reaction to the Senate auto bailout follies, and the the same goes for the price of oil, which was down, but was likely driven by yesterday’s filibuster.

Additionally, retail gasoline is now below $2 a gallon in the lower 48, with New York State crossing that line today.

NATO Meeting Finds Compromise at Meeting

No Comments

So NATO agrees to resume limited ties with Russia while also allowing for better ties with Georgia and the Ukraine without any road map to NATA membership.

Obviously, it makes sense to resume ties with Russia. They are geographically and historically very important in dealing with Iran and Afghanistan.

As to kicking NATO membership down the road for the two former Soviet Republics, that’s just stupid, but the best that could be had with Bush and His Evil Minions™ still in power.

NATO does not need expansion, and the idea that a nut job like Georgia’s Mikheil Saakashvili, or a man who seems to be actively in the running for nut job like Ukraine’s Viktor Yushchenko to have the ability to mandate actions on the part of three nuclear powers is absurd.

One of the great diplomatic missteps of the 1990s was the expansion of NATO.

Just imagine how bad it would have been if Georgia had been a NATO member when it launched its assault on civilians. Do governments in the rest of Europe want to be held hostage by someone like Mikheil Saakashvili?

Do the militaries in the rest of Europe want to have to share data with a country whose military was so completely penetrated by Russian intelligence?

The expansion of NATO has been driven by 3 things:

  1. The US desire for new markets for defense equipment.
  2. The desire by some players to treat Russia as a conquered nation, and to use NATO rub their face in their current status.
  3. The European goal of continental union.
  4. Dick Cheney and His Evil Minions™ want to recreate the bad old Russian bear, because it gets Republicans elected, so they keep poking Russia with a number of sticks, of which NATO expansion is one.

I will note that the rapid expansion of the EU, which is, after a civilian institution hasn’t gone well either.

One need only look look at Bulgaria, a virtual Mafia state whose accession to the EU was driven by pan European triumphalism, to a lesser degree places like the Baltic republics, which are engaging in genteel ethnic cleansing, and that whole “twins” thing in Poland.

Both the EU and NATO have over expanded because of this, and the possibility of adding Ukraine and Georgia gives me the willies.

If the road to a unified Europe is inevitable, and I think that it is near inevitable, then expansion can take part at a measured pace.

The greatest threat to a real European super-State policy is the EE’s collapse from overambitious expansion.

The Last Refuge of Well Connected Nuts: The WSJ Ediitorial Page

No Comments

In this case it’s Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who continues to pimp the lie that the Rissians attacked first.

No, they didn’t. They knew that you would attack, and they knew when and where you would attack almost before you did, and so massed troops on their side of the border waiting for the balloon to go up, but you attacked first.

Being stupid, and having your state security apparatus thoroughly penetrated by a large unfriendly neighbor does not make you the victim of an attack. It just makes it either stupid or insane to launch an attack against their troops and allies.

You sir, notwithstanding your vaunted Western education, are both stupid and insane.

Stupid Lame Ducks

No Comments

Well, the US is threatening Russia over it not complying completely with the cease fire agreements, in this case my guess would be over their disinclination do withdraw from portions of Abkhazia that Georgia seized a year of so ago:

Russia is still failing to meet its ceasefire obligations with Georgia and Washington’s European allies must not overlook this and rush to embrace Moscow, a senior U.S. official said on Tuesday.

Matthew Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, said Moscow must pull back its forces as agreed in a French-brokered ceasefire that ended the war in August before there could be “business as usual.”

Mr. Bryza, you are a complete idiot.

No one cares what you thing. You will be gone in 8 weeks, along with the rest of your skeevy incompetent associates, and the Russians and the Europeans know this too.

Please, just have a steaming helping of STFU.

Russia Makes Offer on Euro Missile Defense

No Comments

They won’t place missiles in Kaliningrad if the US terminates its ABM installation in Poland and the Czech Republic.

It’s not surprising that the Russians consider this a direct threat.

It’s also not surprising that they consider the expansion of NATO a direct threat.

Their worst case scenario is, “What would have happened if Georgia had been a NATO member?”

There are people in positions of power, or one election away from a position of power, in many of the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact nations who would be inclined to be just as crazy as Georgian President Saakaskvili, only when they launch an assault on an unarmed populace that is inclined toward the Russians.

Deaths in Russian Sub Accident

No Comments

It appears that a fire suppression system activated, and people suffocated before they could don emergency breathing gear.

This may come down to training, as the people on board may not have know how and when to use breathing gear.

Technical error in article: Freon (more likely a similar CFC like halon) is described as a toxic gas. It isn’t, but in high enough concentrations, it can suffocate you, much like a pure Nitrogen atmosphere did at a NASA installation a few years back.

Georgian Aggression Makes the NY Times

No Comments

Honestly, I think that they got the green from Bush and His Evil Minions™, or at least Dick Cheney before cluster bombing cities, but cluster bomb cities they did, and they did it before the Russians moved in.

Even without consideration as to right or wrong, it would be catestrophically stupid to allow Georgia into NATO for one simple reason: It will give the Russian FSB unprecedented access to NATO secrets, because the Russians have completely penetrated the Georgian state security apparatus.

That’s why the Russians were able to launch a devastating counter attack: they knew that it was coming, to the minute and individual battalion level battle plans, and so could respond quickly.

Russian Missiles to Kalaningrad

No Comments

The Russians legitimately see the BMD system in Poland as a threat, and they are taking what they see as appropriate action. (See also here)

This was foreseeable. It’s natural for the Russians to see the system as a direct challenge, particularly since the location of the interceptors and radar are better more suited to protecting Europe from Russia than from Iran, which is the putative reason for the installation in the first place.

It’s also a challenge to Obama, which complicates things, because it makes it harder for him to do the smart thing, which is to relocate the installation further south or cancel it completely.

Spencer Ackerman Misses the Big Picture

No Comments

quotes the following from the Heritage Foundation:

October 30, 2008
The New Cold War: Reviving the U.S. Presence in the Arctic
by Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Lajos F. Szaszdi, Ph.D., and Jim Dolbow
Backgrounder #2202

The Arctic is quickly reemerging as a strategic area where vital U.S. interests are at stake. The geo­political and geo-economic importance of the Arctic region is rising rapidly, and its mineral wealth will likely transform the region into a booming eco­nomic frontier in the 21st century. The coasts and continental shelf of the Arctic Ocean are estimated to hold large deposits of oil, natural gas, and meth­ane hydrate (natural gas) clusters along with large quantities of valuable minerals.

He seems to think that, “important corners of the Republican Party remain frothing, bloodshot-eyeball insane.”

He’s wrong. These folks are completely sane. The Republican party, of which the Heritage foundation is an integral part, needs to have a big scary enemy to further their partisan electoral goals.

Additionally, it furthers their policy goals, because the money going into the military makes it difficult to find resources for social programs.

This is not insanity, this is a complete lack of conscience. War is just a way to win elections.

Indian Navy Looks to Nuke Sub Lease Deal

No Comments

The Amur shipyard in Russia has started sea trials on the “kinda sorta new” Akula II boat.

It’s not completely new, construction was halted in 1991, but this is a very capable boat, and the Indians are getting for $650 million for a 10 year lease.

FWIW, I think that the cost has to be understated, even if the Russians are desparate to maintain their shipyards capabilities, this is a 10 cent sale.

HRW Alleges Georgian War Crimes in South Ossetia

No Comments

It’s a BBC radio broadcast (at link), but the money quote is:

Research by the organisation Human Rights Watch [HRW] ints to indiscriminate use of force by the Georgian military and the possible deliberate targeting of civilians.

Indiscriminate use of force is a violation of the Geneva Convention and serious violations are considered to be war crimes.

No big surprise here, this was obvious in the first few hours of the war, before, you know, the Russians eradicated the Georgian military.

It marks a turn around for HRW though. In the early days following the war, they accused the Russians of using cluster bombs….Until it was revealed that the physical evidence that they had was all ofS weapons.

Some Insight on the Russian Psyche from a Russian

No Comments

From Stanislav Mishin‘s blog Mat Rodina, we find The Sixteen Reasons Why Russia Should NEVER Trust the West.

You can go to the site to get a bit more in exposition.

About half of the reasons are true, or at least true as one can when one is talking about international relations:

  • Western banks and institutions raped Russia in the 1990s, which is true. The bankers made money, the pensioners were out on the street, and teen aged girls were selling themselves as prostitutes in order to keep from starving.
  • Western Governments did cheer when Yeltsin shelled his own parliament
  • The West, particularly western oil companies do want control of Russian oil
  • NATO was expanded to the Russian border, despite promises to the contrary
  • NATO bombed Serbia, though I would argue that there were legitimate reasons, a genocidal regime, for doing so.
  • The West has a policy of explicit and extensive support to political enemies of Russia in the nations of the former USSR.
  • That the West’s moves into Central Asia following 911 were accompanied by attempts at regime change, or regime foreign policy change to create states generally hostile to Russian interests.
  • That the west abrogated treaties as soon as they were no longer convenient, most notably the ABM treaty.
  • That the west has provided fairly explicit aid to opposition groups in Russia. Clearly true, though I think he lists this one item as two on his list of 16.

Then there are those that I have doubts as to their significance or veracity. Either I have no knowledge of the truth of the statements, or I think that he is conflating basic international Realpolitik with explicit hostility:

  • That the west has been backing secessionist and Islamist movements within Russia, most notably in Chechnya. Certainly, given the consequences and how they might effect access to Caspian oil make them plausible, particularly when it appears clear that the US gave tacit approval for Saakisvili to launch assaults in South Ossetia.
  • That the Polish missile defense silos for could be used for the deployment of short range nuclear missile….Technically true, I put this in the paranoid section, it’s easier/safer to use SSBNs firing missiles on depressed trajectories.
  • That the West is giving asylum to people wanted by Russia, while demanding extradition of Russians to face western courts…Technically true, but meaningless, as a pretty standard standard state of diplomacy.
  • That the west went soft on the Taliban, and pressured the Russians not to respond militarily to them prior to 911 because they wanted an oil pipeline that avoided both Russia and Iran. True, but I don’t see it as overtly hostile, it’s just the Texas oil men running the US government. To quote The Godfather, it’s not personal, it’s, “Just Business”.

Then there is the tinfoil hat stuff:

  • That the West despises “Russian Patriotism and Christianity”
  • That the, “The West back every Jihad aimed at Orthodox Christians”

These are tinfoil hat, but it does reflect the deeply Xenophobic character of the worldview expressed here.

What I see as stupidity, he sees as malice.

I would say that this is particularly the case with NATO expansion, where the Euros were just too busy partying about the fall of the wall, and the US was looking at new markets for their military hardware and saw the need to replace Soviet legacy systems in new NATO members as a profit center.

I do think that Mr. Mishin represents a mainstream view in Russia, which begs the question, how is this addressed.

Unfortunately, many of the things that have been done, the feeding frenzy of the 1990s and the expansion of NATO cannot be easily undone.

As start, a forceful statement that the US is opposed to NATO membership for the Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan would be constructive.

I have little knowledge of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, but it is clear that the presidents of Ukraine and Georgia have a few screws loose.

Additionally, it’s clear that the state security apparatus of Georgia has been thoroughly penetrated by the Russians, as the speed and effectiveness of the Russian military response shows that they knew of the specifics of the assault on South Ossetia for weeks in advance.

I am not a military man, but the idea of having an ally whose defense establishment is completely penetrated by another country does not fill me with glee.

How Russians View NATO and the US

No Comments

Yes, I am quoting an article in Pravda, and I think that what it says about Russian attitudes is more important than the objective truth (though I generally agree):

….

NATO was originally designed to keep Germany down, America in Europe and the Soviets out. With no Soviet Union, NATO’s purpose, like that of all good bureaucracies, has mutated. It has reneged on its promises to Russia not to expand eastward and has expanded eastward into some rather questionable regimes, particularly in the Baltics. All the same, as it was declaring Russia a useful partner, though a minor one not worthy of ever inviting in, it sought out a new purpose.

….

Afghanistan was and is the first real NATO fighting war. No longer is this primarily NATO bombers dropping bombs, often on civilians targets, from 3,500 meters, no this is a fighting war with a jihadist guerrilla force, trained by the very same NATO experts. Afghanistan as a whole has already shown NATO to be an empty shell. Many of the members have opted out of contributing anything to the conflict and quite a few that have sent soldiers have sent them with such strict rules of engagement (ROE)s that they are all but useless.

To the Anglo-American Neocons, this of course was a disaster. Their grip on power over Europe and thus the EU in general, was cracking. Add to this the economic knots tied by Russia to several key members, using the very real ropes of energy and business investments, and NATO was opting to be nothing more than a sewing circle.

The Anglo-American Neocons had to take bold action, something that would cause the member states of NATO to recoil back under the Neocon umbrella and unify against a common enemy. But whom? The Muslims showed little ability to project military power into Europe, they do much better with immigrants. The Chinese were out of the question a general rule, way to much elite money at risk for that kind of nonsense. Thus there was only one clear choice: Russia. But how to resurrect the Soviet Union, or at least it’s shadow?

Enter stage right, a small time Georgian dictator and one not to bright but very egotistical. The perfect dupe: Saakashvili.

….

Still, all this in itself, may not be enough to finally finish off NATO and end the 100 years of Ideological Warfare, for yes, dear reader, we have yet to leave that period. Russia is no longer the Soviet Union, no longer the Stalinist Marxists, but Economic Trotskyite Marxism (fascism) is alive and well, having infected the West flowing from the decayed corpse of Military Trotskyite Marxism (Nazism). NATO is the final guard against the return of the traditional world, where nations sought economic advantage for themselves not in the name of some mutant form of Internationalism. It is the final guard against nationalistic states that sought the betterment of their people first and foremost and not that of some hypothetical global village or for the internationalistic elite.

The Bank Panic of 2008 may be, however the final stone to knock down this aged and staggering Goliath. The Anglo-American Trotskyites who created this mess are in short, bankrupt. Their ability to project power grows weaker every day with a new DOW low. At the same time, nations such as Iceland, once one of their key military posts, are seeking aid not from their so called allies but from Russia itself. Bound together by economic or cultural or religious or historical ties, or all of the above, nations such as Iceland, Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Czech, Slovakia and others will naturally pull away from the now bankrupt alliance. Historical ties that were supposed to have died along with history, as proclaimed by one of the fathers of Trotskyite Neoconism: Fukuyama, will now return the globe to an equilibrium long not seen and one that promises more stability than the Internationalist regimes of the past 100 years.

Going through Stanislav Mishin’s other blog posts, it’s clear that he’s a bit of a Russian nationalist, though less so than any Fox News commentator, and his 16 reasons for Russia to NEVER trust the West is an instructive read, even if you disagree with parts of it.

Viktor Yushchenko Calls Snap Elections in Ukraine

No Comments

Fissures in the “Orange Revolution”.

The short story is that Ukranian President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko are on different sides of the ideological divide.

Yushchenko thinks that they should do everything possible to piss off the Russians, so that they will attack, and Tymoshenko looks at Georgia, and though she hates Russia too, she saw what happened in Georgia, and thinks that needlessly tweaking their nose, and overt hostility to the large Russian ethnic minority in Ukraine is stupid, and will not be to the benefit of the country.

Basically, Tymoshenko is saying that she is not opposed to wars, “just stupid ones,” to quote the next President of the United States and Yushchenko is approaching the issue with the calm demeanor of the current President of the United States.

Speaking from experience here, let me advise the Ukrainian people that having a leader with a messiah complex is a double plus bad thing.

See hrere, here, and here.