Category: South Asia

NATO Conducts Raid Inside Pakistan

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Way to piss off an essential ally against terrorism in the region, by sending in a helicopter based infantry assault, and killing some number of civilians.

I’m not sure if this is the start of a new policy, a statement of displeasure regarding Pakistan’s Ramadan cease fire, or some attempt to gin up something for the us elections, but in either case, the consequences, in terms of destabilizing a nuclear armed Pakistan, are very concerning.

Note that this was not the NATO force that did this, as, “American troops in Afghanistan operate under a NATO chain of command, the Special Operations forces who carried out this attack answer only to American commanders.”

In any case, this does not bode well for US-Pakistani relations.

Another Failure for Bush and His Evil Minions&trade

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Well, after expending all that time and effort on trying to ram through a US-India nuclear deal, it appears that even with the deal, India will be going with non-US companies for its nuclear needs, they will go to French and Russian companies.

It turns out that the Indian model, of purchasing whole systems from one vendor, does not lend itself to the way that the US nuclear power industry is structured.

So Bush isn’t even making money for GE and Bechtel out of this.

Nuclear Suppliers Group Throws Monkey Wrench into Indo-American Civil Nuke Deal

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Which I consider to be a good thing.

The idea that somehow the technical know-how that the French and the US nuclear industries are so interested in exporting to India won’t flow to their weapons’ program is naive at best.

Right now, the US is lobbying the 45 nation NSG to grant a waiver to India, even though it will not sign the NNPT.

This approval is necessary for the Indo-US deal to go through, and the NSG is looking at adding conditions to the waiver such as periodic reviews, a more intrusive inspection regime of civilian nuclear power plants, and a cancellation of the waiver in the event of additional Indian weapons testing.

India has said that it would reject any such conditions though, so it’s unclear where things go from here.

Honestly, I see this as phenomenally bad policy being pushed by the US Nuclear power industry, and being supported by Bush and His Evil Minions™ because they are reliable Republican donors.

Coalition in Pakistan Collapses

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Nawaz Sharif has withdrawn his Pakistan Muslim League-N party from its coalition with the Pakistan People’s Party.

It’s not surprising. The one thing that Sharif demanded from the start was the restoration of all judges, and the refusal of PPP party head Asif Ali Zardari to reinstate all the judges, particularly Iftikar Muhammad Chaudhry.

They also agreed to reduce the power of the Presidency, and to have a non-partisan candidate for the office.

What this is really about in my mind is that Zardari is remarkably corrupt, even by the standards of Pakistani governance (as if that concept is not a mind f&%$), his nick name is “Mr. 10%”, and he is afraid that Chaudhry, who by all accounts is honest and non-partisan, will invalidate the grant of immunity for his corruption.

To be fair, it wasn’t just him who was corrupt. His late wife, Benazir Bhutto, was hip deep in all of this too, but since she went to Harvard, and spoke excellent English, she was labeled a democratic hope for Pakistan.

Pakistan Coalition Fails to Agree on Restoring Judges

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Well, now that Musharraf is gone, we have Nawaz Sharif threatening to pull out of the coalition government, (see also here) because the phenomenally corrupt (even by Pakistani standards!!!) Asif “Mr 10%” Ali Zedari is trying to renege on the deal he had with Sharif to restore all the judges, particularly chief justice of the supreme court Muhammad Chaudhry:

The basis of Zardari’s opposition to Chaudhry rests with a fear that he might undo an amnesty agreement that absolved Mr. Zardari of corruption charges, lawyers said. The amnesty, which applies to bureaucrats and politicians who faced corruption charges, was part of a package arranged by Musharraf when Zardari returned to Pakistan after his wife, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated in December.

Chaudhry is viewed as a danger because he appears to be a serious and non-corrupt jurist, and an independent and clean judiciary is something essential right now in Pakistan, whether or not that Zedari ends up in jail as a result or not.

Put a Fork in Pervez Musharraf He is Done

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With a 2/3 vote of Parliament necessary to impeach Musharraf, Siddique-ul-Farooq, a leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party says the count is above 300 parliamentarians out of 440.

What’s more members of the PML-Q, Musharraf’s principal allies in the parliament are publicly calling for his resignation.

Given that the head of the military, has privately ruled out a coup, he’s done.

He has allowed the Taliban and al Qaeda to run roughshod over the tribal areas and Afghanistan, because like many in the Pakistani military establishment, he cannot see past a war with India, so I think that his exit will be a good thing for the US too.

Musharraf Faces Impeachment

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It looks like this was pushed by the fact that impeachment has increasingly seemed the only way that the ruling coalition would stay together, but I see it as a good thing, as Musharraf has been bad for Pakistan, bad for the US, and ineffective against terrorism in the reason.

Of the two political leaders, Asif Ali Zardari, and Nawaz Sharif, it has been Zardari who has been least eager to move in this direction, probably because if Musharraf is impeached, then his pardon of Zardari regarding his corruption might be called into questions.

It will be a close thing thouhg, as a 2/3 vote is required.

Musharraf is taking it seriously. He has canceled his trip to the Beijing games in order to marshal political support, which probably means getting support from the Pakistani military, though with the head of the military, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, repeatedly stating that he wanted the military to stay out of politics, I’m not sure how much support is there.

You Know that the ISI will be There

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Pakistan is demanding consular access to Aafia Siddiqui, who is accused of trying to murder US personnel at an Afghan police station.

While it’s clear that this is their right under international treaty, my guess is that at least one of the people sent to deal with her will be an agent of the ISI, the notorious Pakistani intelligence organization, which has been linked to support for al Queida and Taliban activities, most recently the bombing of an Indian mission in Pakistan.

They will want to ensure that she knows nothing, or will say nothing, regarding any ISI involvement in her activities.

CIA Starts Leaking Dirt on Pakistani ISI

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Pakistan denies this, but we have reports that a CIA operative met with Pakistani and presented evidence of close links and support between al Queida and the people in the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

Pakistan’s state security apparatus is focused on a war with India, and when it’s not focused on that, it’s looking at reducing Indian influence in the area, so at allies with Maulavi Jalaluddin Haqqani, which provides sanctuary for al Queida.

These people are not reliable allies with regard to combatting al Queida, the Taliban, or terrorism in general as a result.

The Problem With Pakistan

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Is that the entire country resembles the German Imperial Navy circa 1913. The Kaiser’s naval officers would end each meal with the toast, “Der tag,” meaning “The Day,” referring to the day that a final epic confrontation with the British Grand Fleet.

Well, if we look at the problems with Pakistan, whether it’s misappropriation of funds intended for anti-terror operations, or the support given by the Pakistani security service, the ISI, which continues to support the Taliban in order to ensure that the influence of India in Afghanistan is minimized.

It’s why Pakistan is fundamentally unreliable as an ally in the war on terror. The Pakistani military, and to a lesser extant Pakistani civilian leadership is fixated on the prospect of war with India, even though, as both are nuclear powers, anything beyond fierce border clashes is unlikely.

Well, it looks like Bush and His Evil Minions™ have decided to double down with the “War with India” dead enders who have been supporting the Taliban and preventing meaningful action against al Queida. They are proposing that $230 million in anti-terror aid, roughly 2/3 of all anti-terrorism funds, be transferred to upgrades of the Pakistani F-16 fleet.

These F-16s have no role in operations against the Taliban or against al Queida. They are purposed almost exclusively for use against India.

By releasing this money for upgrades, we are reinforcing bad behavior, and encouraging the Pakistani military to provide a safe haven to al Queida and for elements of the Pakistani security apparatus to act as the primary sponsor for the Taliban.

Allegations of Bribery In Indian Nuke Vote

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Details here, here, and here.

The last link gets into the opposition of Kumari Mayawati to the measure. She is the defacto national representative of India’s Dalit (untouchable) population, and based on what I’ve read about her indicates that she is a very skilled politician, and so probably she’s setting herself up for a larger role in the next government.

One thing that I am sure of though is that it won’t make it through this session of the US Congress, because the Hyde Act requires that Congress be in session continuously for 30 days before a vote is held, and that will not happen in late July of an election year.

Indian Government Wins Confidence Vote on Nuke Deal

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The vote was 275 votes to 256 with 10 abstentions.

Honestly, I think that the nuclear deal is a bad one, it provides civilian nuclear technology to India while its weapons program proceeds apace, but it puts me on the side of the the BJP,* which makes me feeling queasy, though their objection is a nationalist one, that there should be no limits on weapons building and testing, and mine is an anti-proliferation one, that we are rewarding a proliferator with the deal, and will inevitably supply technology for weapons development, simply to benefit the moribund US nuclear industry.

It still has to pass Congress, which is unlikely until after Bush leaves office, and a new administration may wish to tweak the deal.

Indian Communist Party Withdraw Support Over US India Nuke Deal

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The arrangement is odd, the Communists are not formally a part of the government, but they have supported the government on confidence votes, but they are now withdrawing their support because of the US-India nuclear deal, which they feel violated Indian sovereignty.

They don’t object to the nuclear cooperation. They object to signing the NNPT and negotiating with the IAEA.

It looks like both the Bush and His Evil Minions™ and the Indian Congress party are rushing to get this deal signed before January 21, 2009.

Background here, here, here, here, and here.