Category: technology

Not a Good Week for the JSF

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The Problem: As development times of microprocessors and cars have remained steady or fallen, fighter development times have exploded.

The GAO has released its report on the JSF, and the nickel tour, as described by Bill Sweetman, is rather brutal:

The good news for the JSF program in the March 20 Government Accountability Office report – combined with the other numbers released in March – is that the program is no longer at risk of failure.

The bad news is that it has already failed.

(emphasis mine)

It’s true.

The $50 million (2002 dollars) affordable aircraft is now a $106+ million ($127+ million for the B & C versions, 2010 dollars) aircraft, and there are still significant technical hurdles to its success:

  • There is no money to pay for the alternate engine (F136).
  • The current engine, the F135 has deep and real cost and performance issues.
    • The term for these first two items is “Catch 22”: You cannot afford a alternate engine, and not having an alternate engine means that you lack a lever to force the contractor to address issues with cost and reliability.
  • Cost reduction efforts have under performed.
  • There are indications that there is significant price elasticity of demand for foreign customers, which means that they will purchase fewer, or cancel contracts, as costs increase, which will further increase unit cost. (See the Danes, below)
  • Direct operating costs are slightly more than the F-15, and significantly more than the F-16 which it is tasked to replace.

DARPA has looked at this, and concluded that the system engineering techniques used in aerospace are largely responsible for the program, because they take the top level requirements and “stovepipe” them down the chain, where they remain isolated until they eventually come together in something that resembles a multi-car pileup

In any case, one of the consequences of the cost and schedule slippage has been that the Danish government has decided to delay any decision on purchasing the F-35.

I see this as a prelude to cancellation: If they aren’t ready to buy the $106 million dollar aircraft now, they won’t be willing to buy the $126 million dollar aircraft in 4 years. (link to Google translation of the report)

Basically, once you commit to a purchase, it’s very tough to pull out, even when the cost escalates, but if you defer the decision, and the cost escalates, it’s a no brainer to stay out of the program.

The program appears to be in a death spiral, where increasing unit costs reduce purchases, which increases unit costs, etc., or to quote The Boss, “It’s a death trap, it’s a suicide rap.”

Somehow, I Think that This is Another Nail in Stealth’s Coffin

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As I have before, I think that increases in computing power may have the effect of making stealth less effective.

Well, Wired has an article about a new and very powerful algorithm for imaging, called compressed sensing, which uses the simplicity as a way to enhance images, the example they give is a non-military one, specifically the need to image the bile ducts of a small child to see if they were blocked, which required that he be heavily sedated and that his ventilator be shut down so as to keep him still.

With conventional imaging, it would take over 2 minutes and risk brain damage to get the resolution required, but with the new algorithm, it took only 40 seconds.

While this is an interesting possibility for many areas, I can see how this technique, when combined with data from multiple sensors could give a high resolution solution for an air defense system.

In fact, going around the web, you see examples of single pixel cameras producing decent imagery.

These guys see the primary application being low power, and non visible light, where massive arrays become impractical, but I think that military applications will come, and anti-stealth is a likely direction.

Defense Contracting in a Microcosm

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Canceled!


Available at 1/80 the cost

The US Navy has, for some time, been working on the Advanced Seal Delivery System (ASDS),* indended to deploy navy Seal teams from submerged submarines to shore.

The program has delivered one prototype, at a cost of $885 million, well above the initial cost of $80 million a boat, and so the program was finally canceled after a fire broke in the lead unit out when the batteries were being recharged.

Well a private firm, the Submergence Group, is offering their private venture proposal, which is smaller, about 1/3 the displacement, but only costs about $10 million.

And, by the by, that $10 million is a firm number. They have already built one, and it works.

What’s more it fits in the existing Dry Dock Shelter that he seals use for their current delivery vehicle, the Mark 8 Mod 1 minisub, only it has a dry environment, which means that transiting, or waiting over long periods of time won’t, as is the case with the Mk 8, require hanging out in wet suits in the water.

*Full disclosure, while I never worked on this program, I worked at the company that designed the Lithium-Ion battery packs for the ASDS, and talked with a few of the people who worked on its design.

Death Spiral, JSF Edition, Chapter 3 of Many

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A while ago, I wrote about the F-35’s exhaust being so hot that it required modifications to carrier and LPD decks.

Well, as Ron Popeil says, “but wait, there’s more/”

It is now likely that the exhaust will be hot enough so that the aircraft will be unable to operate from austere fields in STOVL mode, and by, “Austere,” we mean, “just about any non-military airfield in the world,” as well as a lot of the military ones:

But a Navy report issued in January says that the F-35B, in fact, won’t be able to use such forward bases. Indeed, unless it ditches its short take-off, vertical landing capability and touches down like a conventional fighter, it won’t be able to use land bases at all without some major construction efforts.

The newly released document, hosted on a government building-design resource site, outlines what base-construction engineers need to do to ensure that the F-35B’s exhaust does not turn the surface it lands on into an area-denial weapon. And it’s not trivial. Vertical-landing “pads will be exposed to 1700 deg. F and high velocity (Mach 1) exhaust,” the report says. The exhaust will melt asphalt and “is likely to spall the surface of standard airfield concrete pavements on the first VL.” (The report leaves to the imagination what jagged chunks of spalled concrete will do in a supersonic blast field.)

What’s more, if you make an appropriate landing area, it has to be in one slab, without joints, because there are current no existing sealers that can take the heat, and if the aircraft is waiting for clearance with its APU (the Integrated Power Pack or IPP) running, that can burn holes in the runway too.

Bill Sweetman is correct when he notes, “Worst case or not, there is a very big difference between a solid slab of high-grade concrete and the kind of surface you are apt to find anywhere ending in -stan.”

And then there is cost, where the JSF unit cost is up 50% from its 2002 number, shattering the Nunn-McCurdy barrier, and that is assuming that the purchase numbers remain the same, something is about as likely as Obama pursuing war crimes prosecutions against Dick Cheney.

T-50 & Su-35 Side By Side

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Source is the USAF via AV Week


Apologies for the cheesy music

The side by side picture, courtesy of Aviation Week (paid subscription required), clearly shows that the aircraft are very similar in size.

What is also clear is that the T-50/PAK-FA is rather more compact in appearance, and would likely be a little bit more difficult to detect visually at range, though it is clearly no F-5.

What is also clear, see the 1990s Northrop/Grumman YF-23 video, is that its fuselage is rather more like that failed ATF competitor than that of the F-22, though the wing and 4-post tail surfaces more closely resemble those of the Raptor.

H/t ELP Defens(c)e Blog for the vid.

If You Click on he Donate Button

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I’ll spend it on this:

It’s been a long time coming. While Arthur C. Clarke’s satellites have taken to space, and James Bond’s futuristic mobile technology has become common place, still the dream of sustained personal flight has eluded us. But the future is here! Finally we can all take flight as Martin Aircraft in New Zealand releases the first commercially-available jet pack!

I’m just saying, “Who amongst us does not want a jet pack?”

Russian S-400 Triumf SAM Enters Service

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It’s about 3 years behind schedule, which when compared to the Patriot Missile, which was entered design in 1969, but did not enter service until 1984, but the S-400 Triumf (NATO designation SA-21 Growler) has officially entered Russian army service.

It is arguably the most capable SAM in service, with a 400 km range, and a significant ATBM capability, as well as an active radar seeker, which was not present in the S-300 (SA-20 Gargoyle).

It claims to have a significant anti-stealth capability, and based on some numbers I ran a few years back, it would appear that the system could detect an F-22 at a range of at least 15 miles, perhaps more, if some of the advances in signal processing and computers work as advertised.

H/t ELP Defens(c)e Blog.

This is a Case to Watch

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Sergey Aleynikov, a senior programmer for Goldman Sach’s high frequency trading software, has been indicted for software theft.

It’s alleged that he took the software, and sent copies of it to a server in Germany.

This case is odd.

First, the entire high frequency trading thing smells of corruption: The idea is that by having servers colocated in the market, you pick up a few milliseconds speed, and so can execute trades between when someone else requests a buy, and when their transaction is actually executed.

To my, admittedly untrained, gut this sounds identical to front-running, which is illegal.

Additionally, the twists and turns of the trial, where Aleynikov’s lawyers made some fairly routing requests for things like his personnel file to show that he was not a disgruntled employee, had the squid’s* lawyers seriously freaking out, and suggesting that charges should be dropped.

I think that there are some very real bits of corruption that might be uncovered in the trial, though the prosecution, defense, and judge might very well find a way to suppress that, because, after all, it’s Goldman Sachs, and rule number 1 of Goldman Sachs is that Goldman Sachs has friends in high places, so it always gets what it wants.

My prior posts are here.

*Alas, I cannot claim credit for the bon mot describing Goldman Sachs as a, “great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.” This was coined by the great Matt Taibbi, in his article on the massive criminal conspiracy investment firm, The Great American Bubble Machine.

More Russian Aviation Video Pr0n

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We have a video, (6:39) unfortunately in Russian, about the new PAK-FA fighter.

Thankfully, there are a sort of subtitles.

The bullet points:

  • Only 40% composites, but the Russians are very good with Titanium
  • Large AESA array, and size does matter
  • There are “5 radar antennae, 3 X-band (7.0 to 11.2 gigahertz (GHz) in the nose, and 2 L-Band (1 to 2 GHz) in the wings, which implies some ability to detect and intercept narrow band low observable targets?
  • They claim that it is, “Designed to have superior aerodynamics and sensors to counter the F-22,” and my guess is that the former is true, but not the latter.
  • The will supercruise with currently installed engines, and more advanced engines are under development for the production model.
  • The aircraft will be jointly produced with India.

I Say “Meh”

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Pretty pictures, though

In a final gasp on a dead program which has consumed billions of dollars and incurred billions of dollars in cost overruns, Boeing’s Airborne Laser (ABL) finally shot down a missile in the ascent phase:

The target was a liquid-fueled short-range ballistic missile. It was tracked within seconds and shot down within 2 min. during a Feb. 11 test off the coast of California. Photos below show infrared of that event.

There were other targets, “solid-fuel Terrier Black Brant sounding rockets,” which were lased, but not destroyed.

My guess would be that the other targets were not destroyed because they couldn’t be destroyed, a solid fuel rocket motor casing is much harder to burn through than a pressurized liquid fuel tank, because the casing has resistance to heat, and resistance to burn through as basic functions.

This is completely irrelevant, because the chemical laser technology, the a chemical oxygen iodine laser (Coil) is not really deployable. It involves expensive, toxic, and environmentally unfriendly fuel.

Additionally, the range of the system appears to be inadequate: (paid subscription required)

Last year, Defense Secretary Robert Gates squelched hopes of producing a design that incorporates lessons learned from the flying prototype. Criticizing the range of the system, Gates told lawmakers that “ABL would have to orbit inside the borders of Iran in order to be able to try to use its laser to shoot down a missile in the boost phase. . . . If you were to operationalize this, you would be looking at 10-20 747s, at a billion and a half dollars apiece, and $100 million a year to operate.”

This implies to me that the range is something under 300, based on nothing more than games I played with Google™ Maps™.

Additionally, there were failures in subsequent tests:

Analysts are still investigating the cause of a “beam misalignment” during a third engagement, which was executed within 1 hr. of the liquid-fueled target shootdown and without landing or replenishing the chemicals on board ABL. O’Reilly says the misalignment prompted a safe shutdown of the system earlier than planned. Although the destruction of this target—a second Terrier Black Brant—did not take place, test objectives were met, he says. They were “to negate a threat-representative short-range ballistic missile in the boost phase followed by the high-energy engagement of a second target to demonstrate the capability to engage multiple missiles on a single mission.”

Also note that this is not the first intercept of a missile by an airborne laser, that happened in 1984, so the idea that this is a technical breakthrough that can be build on is delusional.

Additionally, a relatively simple countermeasure, an ablative coating much like the one that was used on the X-15 A2 tends to mitigate a lot of the potential for damage, as does going with more robust solid rocket technology.

The real reason that this is irrelevant though is because technology has largely passed it by, with the Army testiong Northrop solid state laser in the 100 kW class, it becomes cheaper to go with electrically powered lasers, because if we are seeing 100 kW today, it’s likely that we will be seeing the 1 mW of the ABL in 5 years.

The chief of staff of the Air Force, when he isn’t being a bigoted anti-gay idiot, also notes that this is simply not a technology that can be reasonably deployed (scroll down, the bigoted hand wringing over DADT is in the first few paragraphs):

Rep. Michael Turner, ranking member of the HASC strategic forces subcommittee, raised the recent success of the Airborne Laser in shooting a target. He asked if that would lead the Air Force to increase its commitment to directed energy weapons. Schwartz poured a fair amount of cold water on the Boeing program, calling the ABL test “a magnificent technical achievement” but “this does not represent something that is operationally viable.” The future “coin of the realm” is solid state lasers, Schwartz said, not the chemical laser that Boeing built.

H/t my brother, Daniel “Crescent Lands” Saroff for sending me the link to the first article.

American Dynamics Flight Systems: LH Series Launchers

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One of the recent developments in air to ground munitions has been the addition of guidance to the 2.75 inch FFAR (Folding-Fin Aerial Rocket) in the form of the of the laser guided APKWS (Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System) and DAGR (Direct Attack Guided Rocket).

This venerable weapons system, originally developed as an air to air weapon in the 1940s, found its niche as an unguided air to ground weapon, but with the addition of laser guidance, this system has the very real ability to in precision strike roles that do not require the weight, and cost of an existing system.

Theoretically, this could allow for a rocket, now improved to “Hydra 70”, to be used in scenarios for which the Hellfire is, pardon the pun, overkill to take out a room, or a guy in a truck.


M260(r) and M261 rocket launchers

The problem is that many of the applications for Hellfire are for smaller UAVs, the launcher for the 2.75″ rocket, the M260 and M261 are too heavy and too draggy to be effectively carried.

As is clear from the photo, they have the aerodynamics of a garbage can.

Additionally, they are limited life items, with the aluminum missile tubes having a life of 32 firings.

The folks at ADFS have an improved variant geared toward the guided variant, which, unlike the unguided variant, does not require ripple firing in order to achieve a reasonable chance of hitting the target.

It has two aerodynamic caps on the front and rear of to provide greater streamlining, and there is a single door on both caps to provide for launching.

Both rotate in sync, and the door opens prior to firing, and then shut until the next round is to be fired.


LH Launcher firing sequence

Additionally, the launcher is made from high temperature composites, which allows for an essentially unlimited lifetime, as well as significant weight savings.


Comparison with existing systems

Interfaces between the aircraft and the launcher are supposed to be identical to the M260/M261 launchers.

The Russians Have Repainted the T-50

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It cleans up good

They have applied the Russian air force blue and white camp scheme.

This is not surprising.

In related unsurprising news, the folks at Air Power Australia have looked at the T-50 (PAK-FA), and determined that it’s 10 feet tall and requires the resumption of F-22 production this very minute.

I don’t doubt these guys technical chops, but I knew what they would say as soon as I saw the link.

They are kind of predictable.

Son of FCS-MGV* Looks Like a Repeat Fail

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With the cancellation of the US Army’s FCS-MGV system, the 20 ton class (30 ton+ in operational use), the army has been cast about for a vehicle to fill the role, and they have found it in their ground combat vehicle (GCV) program, which is supposed to have, the “urban mobility of a Stryker, with the off-road capability of a Bradley and the survivability of an MRAP,” while being C-130 transportable. (see also here)

Truth be told, a slightly improved Bradley, particularly one that has the manned turret replaced with an external remotely operated one, which would allow for a single vehicle to carry a full 9 man squad, but the way that it is all phrased does seem to be an invitation to mission and cost creep juxtaposed with schedule slippage.

By “urban mobility,” they mean “road speed”, though I noted about 3 months ago that they were calling for the “sustainability of a Stryker”.

With improved tracks and propulsion, the road mobility can be achieved, though it would still be more maintenance intensive, and less fuel efficient than a wheeled vehicle.

In any case, the Army is looking to spend about a billion bucks on developing the GCV, and they have already delayed the review, though they are claiming, with some justification, I might add, that this was a result of the snowpocalypse.

My inclination would be to look toward improving existing systems, or purchasing and making minor modifications to foreign systems.

*Full disclosure, I worked on the Future Recovery and Maintenance Vehicle, FRMV, “wrecker” variant of the FCS-MGV† from 2003-2006 at United Defense (later BAE Systems after the Carlyle Group sold me to buy Dunkin Donuts).
†Future Combat Systems-Manned Ground Vehicle. These are the ones that are the tanks and APCs. As opposed to the various unnmanned vehicles, networking technologies, etc. that form the full FCS along with the MGVs.‡
‡Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.