Category: technology

Israel May Drop JSF

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So, we now have a report that Israel may order the semi-stealthy “Silent Eagle” if it does not get technical data on the computer for the F-35 JSF.

The claim is that they need to be able to repair the systems under combat conditions, but the counter claim by the US that they will have sufficient spares to swap them out seems to be convincing to me, so I think that there may be other issues.

First is the price. With an order of 75 aircraft, and a price of up to $20 billion, the cost of the aircraft is $266 million each (!), and that is simply not affordable.

Heck, the good old USA can’t afford more F-22s at a mere (!) 185 million each.

More significant, however, is that without this access, the Israelis will be unable to qualify their own systems on the aircraft.

This means that they cannot configure their own weapons, or their own avionics in such a system, means that, for example, they could not make adjustments to the AESA radar in order to jam some new sensor that was fielded, or install a dedicated jamming system on the aircraft.

I think that idea that they would be at the mercy of Lockheed-Martin for timely software upgrades to counter a new weapons system that the Russians or Chinese ship to the Syrians scares the hell out of the IAF.

Boeing’s Looks to Uprated Engine for Super Hornet

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As a results of GE’s work on the Integrated High Performance Turbine Engine Technology (IHTET) research program, GE has managed to increase the thrust of the F-414 engine by 20%, which would take it from its current 22,000 lbs to about 26,400 lbs of thrust, and Boeing is looking to using this engine as an inducement to sell more of it’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and EF-18G Growler on the export market (paid subscription required). (See also here).

Basically, there is a new core, which the US Navy wants to increase durability, and reduces fuel consumption by about 3%, and a new fan, which can be used to increase thrust, and which the navy does not want.

Boeing is offering the 2nd option to other customers, which is a sort of acknowledgement that the “market” finds the F/A-18 E/F (and G) to be a little bit poky compared to the competition.

It might also make SAAB’s Gripen NG, my fighter obsession du jour, more attractive, as the increased durability engine would save costs and give it somewhat longer legs, and the 20% increase in thrust, which might require a new inlet, because mass flow increases, would offer a very significant increase in performance.

One Solution to Piracy

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There is s conflict between merchant ships being generally forbidden under international maritime law from carrying weapons, and how to deal with the the upsurge of pirates.

One interesting solution is the electronically controlled water cannon, which comes with a remote control joystick, so that the operator can be away from the turret, and the returned fire, an automatic system to track small boats, the ability to also shoot pepper spray, and, at 5000 liters a minute, it can, “send an 85 kg barrel flying end over end at 75 meters”, which is well probably at the accurate fire limit for someone shooting you at a small boat.

Best of all, it’s not a weapon, it’s “fire fighting equipment,” and so is not subject to things like port restrictions.

Adventures in Aircraft Recognition

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Remember my post a few hours ago regarding a photograph of a mystery aircraft photographed over Afghanistan?

I’m almost ready to call it a hoax.

To refresh your memory, here is the photo (top), and here is a photo of the LongEZ modified by the AFRL to test pulse detonation propulsion
mystery aircraft, and below it are three photographs the first one from Wiki, and the next two from Mojave Skies (I’ve mirrored and cropped them to more closely match match the orientation of the mystery pic).

The similarities, cranked wing, large boxy structure under the fuselage, location of the canopy, are all rather striking.

What is missing are the canards, wingtip rudders, and the pulse detonation tubes sticking out the back, but with photoshop/GIMP and some reduction in resolution, I think that the conclusion that it is a faked photograph may be higher on the list.

The aircraft only flew at the Mojave airport, and now sits at the National Museum of the U.S. Air Force at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base outside of Dayton, Ohio, and it clearly never shared even the same hemisphere as Afghanistan.

(click pics for full size images)

Huh, My Bad

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Actually, as lot of people’s “my bad”, because that picture I posted as a “mystery UAV”, was the wrong picture, as Stephen Trimble observes.

The previous photo was apparently the wrong one, and I posted it in error.

If this one is accurate, and it is almost as bad as the other one, It looks like a slightly cranked wing, and maybe a radome underneath, and a canopy, or maybe air intake above.

In any case, I’m confused, and have no clue as to what is in the air over Afghanistan.

What the Hell Are They Flying in Afghanistan?

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OK, so we now have a picture to go along with the reports of a stealthy UAV operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

So, you have the grainy picture, and the artist’s conception.

The thing is, it doesn’t make any sense to use stealth in Afghanistan.

The Taliban does not have any air defense radars operating, so why work on a specialized stealth shape?

I can see aural stealth (noise), and IR stealth, and visual stealth, but using a radar avoiding platform where there is no radar just makes no sense.

[on edit]
I just came across the BAE Corax (Raven in Greek) as a possible answer.

It’s a British system, and it matches the general configuration, including the long wing, though the photo seems to show a lot more wing sweep.

More Scramjet News

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While DARPA’s Blackswift hypersonic , the dual mode turbojet/scramjet Falcon combined-cycle engine technology (FACET)soldiers on, (paid subscription required) and has actually successfully completed tests up to Mach 4 in a wind tunnel.

The technology used a turbojet to get to high supersonic speeds, at which point the scramjet kicks in, and the turbojet is cocooned, and it is supposed to take a vehicle to around Mach 6.

Additionally, the X-51A scramjet test vehicle has been moved to the Boeing plant at Huntington Beach, CA for structural tests.

It’s not as sophisticated as the FACET, it’s a pure scramjet, and boosted to speed by a rocket booster after being dropped by a B-52, and it’s rather crude, using existing equipment wherever possible, using a rocket booster from ATACMS, an existing fuel control system, and geriatric igniters from the TF-33 engine, along with using a rather heavy tungsten nose cone and ablative coatings elsewhere to deal with the heat.

Maneuverability is Irrelevant

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That’s the latest pitch for the F-35, as noted by Stephen Trimble.

They even have a video showing how their new whiz bank sensor fusion means that you can see everywhere all the time, so maneuverability does not matter, because they have the Electro-Optical Distributed Aperture System (EO-DAS).

You have to love this quote at around the 3½ minute mark, “maneuverability is irrelevant. Instead of mutual kills, the F-35 simply exits the fight, and lets its missiles do the turning.”

Shades of the no gun versions of the F-4 Phantom II, and how well those worked.

Watch the video, and I’ll note how this is disingenuous afterwords.


First, note that with distinctly limited space in the weapons bays, the F-35 is pretty much limited to the AIM-120 AMRAAM and the AIM-9Z, the latest Sidewinder, both of which are smaller, and so have inferior kinematics (range and end game maneuverability) to their Russian and Chinese counterparts, particularly when they start off with an 180° turn with an over the shoulder shot, so shooting the aircraft behind you is not all that likely, since by the time that they are in your missile envelope, they have already fired.

This is particularly true of the Sidewinder, which was never designed with thrust vectoring, and is smaller (5″ diameter as vs 6″ diameter), and is using an older motor not designed for thrust vectoring. The Over the shoulder AMRAAM actually has a new larger motor using the space available from a reduction in the size of its guidance electronics.

Of course, at the ranges where the AMRAAM outperforms the Sidewinder, you probably want to turn and put the nose on target to improve the envelope anyway.

Improved situational awareness is a good thing. Most pilots get shot down by a threat that they never see, but once the guy is in your 6 o’clock, you are hosed.

Ebay Discovered to Have Socially Redeeming Value

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It turns out that stealing artifacts from archeological sites is expensive and time consuming, and eBay allows these folks, who already know a fair amount about the artifacts to to make their money more easily by peddling counterfeits:

A little over a decade ago, archaeologists experienced a collective nightmare–the emergence of eBay, the Internet auction site that, among other things, lets people sell looted artifacts. The black market for antiquities has existed for centuries, of course, with devastating consequences for the world’s cultural heritage. But we could at least take some comfort that it was largely confined to either high-end dealers on one end of the economic spectrum or rural flea markets on the other. The sheer physical constraints of transporting and selling illegal artifacts kept the market relatively small. But the rise of online auction sites promised to drastically alter the landscape. And so it did, just not in the dire way we had anticipated.

Back in the pre-eBay days, the cost of acquiring and selling an antiquity was high. The actual looter was usually paid little, but various middlemen down the line added huge costs. During my 25 years of working in the Andes, I have often seen this dynamic at work. In years past, transporting an object was a big expense, even for portable artifacts, and the potential for arrest added to the total cost of doing business. In addition, the expense of authentication, conservation, and occasional restoration of the pieces, made buying and selling quality antiquities a wealthy person’s vice.

Our greatest fear was that the Internet would democratize antiquities trafficking and lead to widespread looting. This seemed a logical outcome of a system in which anyone could open up an eBay site and sell artifacts dug up by locals anywhere in the world. We feared that an unorganized but massive looting campaign was about to begin, with everything from potsherds to pieces of the Great Wall on the auction block for a few dollars. But a very curious thing has happened. It appears that electronic buying and selling has actually hurt the antiquities trade.

How is it possible? The short answer is that many of the primary “producers” of the objects have shifted from looting sites to faking antiquities. I’ve been tracking eBay antiquities for years now, and from what I can tell, this shift began around 2000, about five years after eBay was established. It is true that fakes have been around for centuries. In 1886, the celebrated Smithsonian archaeologist W. H. Holmes described countless bogus antiquities in Mexico. A few decades later, Egyptologist T. G. Wakeling noted that many ancient Egyptian artifacts were, in fact, fakes. In the 19th century, American and European museums purchased large numbers of “Etruscan” ceramic vessels and sarcophagi that came straight from the kilns of rural Italian farmers. But these were usually the really good fakes, labor-intensive pieces that required lots of work and skill. Today, every grade and kind of antiquity is being mass-produced and sold in quantities too large to imagine.

…

The interaction between technology and society is indeed weird.

Army Now Looking at FCS Replacement

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And externally, at least, it will look an awful lot like the canceled FCS manned ground vehicle family of vehicles. (FCS-MGV)

After all, if you are looking for something smaller and lighter than existing systems, you still have a box on treads.

That being said, there are some lessons learned here, and hopefully they will be fixed:

  • There was too much focus on commonality among vehicles. If you want a tank(ette) version, there is no reason to put it on the same wheelbase as an infantry combat vehicle or command vehicle. The M8 Armored Gun System, which I saw up close in my time at BAE systems,* was much smaller and lighter, and had a lower height, and hence better concealment. Going with a completely common platform costs more than you save.
  • Abandon the lead system integrator (LSI) concept of program development. This contracting concept has failed EVERY time it has been used, and there are already bills out there to ban the practice. It gives lunatics (defense contractors) the keys to the asylum.
  • A better understanding on what the program is for. On the FCS-MGV, for example GD was responsible for propulsion and suspension, and BAE Systems was responsible for the track, not because of any special technical abilities of the respective companies, but because of a deliberate policy to spread the money around evenly.
  • Implement technologies that are more mature.

*Full disclosure, I worked on the Future Recovery and Maintenance Vehicle, FRMV, “wrecker” variant of the FCS-MGV† from 2003-2006 at United Defense (later BAE Systems after the Carlyle Group sold me to buy Dunkin Donuts).
†Future Combat Systems-Manned Ground Vehicle. These are the ones that are the tanks and APCs. As opposed to the various unnmanned vehicles, networking technologies, etc. that form the full FCS along with the MGVs.‡
‡Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

Defense Budget Finally Out

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So, the details are out, and we have a big, confusing, and sprawling story from a big confusing, and sprawling building, the Pentagon.

Here are some links, and some things that I find noteworthy.

Specific programs:

With $439 million budgeted, the USAF is definitely going full speed on the tanker replacement bidding.

The Next Generation Bomber and the F-136 alternate JSF engine are on the chopping block, and the Gerald Ford class aircraft carrier has been delayed a year to work out the bugs on its electric catapults.

Star Wars takes a hit, with both the multiple kill vehicle and the airborne laser being canceled.

UAV’s did very well, with the Raven (shown) getting over 700 orders.

Aviation:

The DEW Line has a rundown.

Classified:

The Pentagon classified budget is now, up above $50 billion, which, on its own, makes the black programs something like the 3rd largest military budget in the world.

US Army:
spending on Helos is up, as are both unmanned vehicles and the number of active duty soldiers.

Navy:

We already know the story, cancellation of the DDG-100, restart of the Brukes, and continued procurement of the LCS, more here, here, and here.

Short version, it’s a generally down, but the Navy has done OK.

USAF

Basically, talk to the deer.

The USAF did not fare well, with the end of the F-22 and C-17 production lines, underfunding of the Air Force One replacement, the Joint Dual-Role Air Dominance Missile (JDRADM), and the follow on to the Predator drone, and the cancellation of the TSAT satellite system.

Cost Guard:

Not the Pentagon, it’s technically in the Department of Commerce, but its budget is up by about 3%.

Airbus, Boeing Open Rotor Ideas Diverge

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It appears that both while Boeing and Airbus are looking at “open rotor technology:, they are moving in different directions (paid subscription required), with Boeing focusing on an on-wing tractor propeller, and Airbus looking at a fuselage mounted pusher propeller. (shown)

Seeing as how air flows the same way on both sides of the Atlantic, the questions is what the differences are in their requirements.

Based on my rather uneducated gut, my guess is that a pusher system, at least one with a the tails arranged as shown would be quieter, because the tail structure masks the prop noise to a degree, and that the tractor propeller on the wing would be more efficient, because the it would be in less turbulent air.

Additionally, the airflow over the wing from the puller props might marginally improve short field performance.

Any thoughts?

Gripen NG Going With Swash Plate AESA Radar

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While there are a number of advantages to AESA radars, including reliability, flexibility, range, and low signature, there are also disadvantages, most notably cost, weight, and look angle.

An AESA radar will typically offer inferior performance at significant angles off boresight, and a narrower field of view.

It appears that SAAB is following Eurofighter’s lead, and will offer a swashplate AESA radar for Gripen NG (see picture), in partnership with Radar supplier Selex, offering a “scan angle of up to 100°” (off boresite).

This should address one of the concerns of potential customers, though there is still the whole “chicken-egg” thing, where the customer does not want to be the only foreign customer for the system, or support and upgrades become prohibitively expensive.

SAAB’s brochure is here. (PDF)

AFRL Develops Directional Fusing for A

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The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) is looking at fuses and configurations that would allow a warhead to direct the bulk of its shrapnel toward the target, as opposed to distributing it more or less evenly in all directions.

This intended to be a part of the Joint Dual-Role Air Dominance Missile (JDRADM), a missile intended to replace both the AMRAAM AAM and the HARM ARM.

I’m a bit dubious of packaging both of these roles into one missile, but the fusing and warhead tech here looks promising.

Russia: Turkey Seeks To Buy Air Defense System – Defense News

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About 7 months ago, I noted that Turkey was looking to buy Russian SAM Systems.

We have another report , and this adds the S-400 (NATO Code Name SA-21 Growler) to the list.

It is arguably the most capable SAM system in the world with a range in excess of 400 km, and a sophisticated control system that may allow for some anti-stealth capabilities through sensor fusion and data processing, along a significant anti-missile capabilities, which might very well provide coverage from something fired from Iran.

What is interesting here is that the story is not that the manufacturer is saying that Turkey wants the system, not that a contract has been inked, and the system has yet to be exported, and I am not sure that if I were Russian authorities, I would want a NATO ally, who would be very likely to pass along data on this system to the US, to get their mitts on this.

F$#@ Kindle, This is Something that Will Revolutionize Publishing

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It’s called the Espresso Book Machine, and it prints books on demand.

It literally prints the book and binds it in about 5 minutes from an order.

If you were to integrate a scanner/shredder to do book “returns”, you could eventually run a bookstore without any physical delivery, and only stock those books you sell, plus preprinting stock to put out on your shelves for the things that move faster.

Right now, it’s primarily handling out of copyright works, but the manufacturer is looking to add in copyright works.

List for the machine is about $175,000.00, but that should pay for itself fairly quickly, if just by generating sales that take 5 minutes to deliver, as opposed to 2 weeks, so the customer goes elsewhere.

The big problem, of course, is that book publishers will insist that this new technology will require an even higher profit margin on their part, just like record distributors did with CDs when they came out, even though they were cheaper than vinyl.

Unlike Amazon’s® Kindle®, they can’t turn a book into a $359.00 doorstop because you have a billing or return dispute.

Of course, XKCD was all over this:

Or not, but it’s funny.

Russian Draws Back Veil from MiG-31BM

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Russia has finally displayed the latest version of the MiG 31 interceptor along with its weapons loadout.

Of interest is that this is the first showing of the R-33S (bottom pic, right hand side), which differs from the basic R-33 by having some small destabilizing surfaces up front (the ones with the ray and white bodies).

It’s about 40 kg (88 lb) heavier than the basic R-33, which would imply some increase in range, and the destabilizing surfaces implies an increase in maneuverability, though it is still clearly not intended for highly maneuverable targets.

You can click the pics for the full size photographs.

General Atomics Rolls Out Stealthy Predator C

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David Fulghum and Bill Sweetman post their observations, most of which are obvious from the top picture, edge alignment, a serpentine inlet, a flattened exhaust nozzle, and a lack or right angles for stealth, along with a roughly 10 foot long weapons bay, more than enough for 500 lb JDAMS, or Hellfires, etc., and some wing to accommodate the higher speeds that the jet engine can generate.

There are some more pictures here, and you can also look through the Aviation Week gallery.

The aircraft has been designed with folding wings and a tail hook (bottom pic), which implies that it is intended to be operated from an aircraft carrier at some point, and this is clearly an early prototype, as the current air data probes, and the antenna/sensor on the bottom of the fuselage (also bottom pic) appear to be decidedly non stealthy.