Category: Transportation

High Gas Prices Put Crimp in Exurban Life

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While I think that the predictions of a rapid decline in far suburbs is premature, it’s clear that increases in fuel costs, and hence the cost of commuting have driven some changes in attitudes regarding distant suburbs.

I disagree with land use expert Christopher Leinberger, who says, “Many low-density suburbs and McMansion subdivisions, including some that are lovely and affluent today, may become what inner cities became in the 1960s and ’70s – slums characterized by poverty, crime and decay,” if just because these McMansion subdivisions were remarkably poorly constructed, and the houses will not survive long enough to become slums.

I would expect, however, that as the exurbs were first into the housing crash, they will be the last out, and the land values won’t reach the relative levels that they had to more urban neighborhoods ever again.

Krugman on Reducing Travel Energy

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He makes a very good point, that getting people to buy cars that get better gas mileage is the easy part of this.

The hard part is getting people to drive less too, since we have engaged in policies that have subsidized choices that require driving over the past 50 + years.

In many places, with far spread suburbs, public transport is far less efficient than it is in denser areas, and there are a lot of people living in suburbs, particularly in far suburbs, who are going to experience a very bad time as a wrenching change to lifestyle is made.

As for me, I’m about 5¼ Miles from the terminus of the Baltimore Subway, so I’ll do OK, I can bicycle to it.

Transit Update

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There has been a surge of people moving to mass transit driven by higher gas prices, though I have to say that after 60 years of direct and indirect subsidies to the “own a car” lifestyle, this will either be a short term change, or a part of a slow change.

That being said, the City of San Francisco has come up with an interesting idea, congestion pricing on parking meters, the theory being that if you price the meters high enough that there are always a few open, you eliminate the people driving around and around looking for parking, and reduce congestion, in addition to reducing the total number of drivers.

Warren Buffett Buying Railroads

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Buffet does not always back winners, but his record is remarkably good, so the fact that he is buying into BNSF is significant.

Given that energy prices are only going up, and that rail is the most energy efficient mode of ground transport (maybe Buffet should look at Barge companies too), it seems like a no brainer.

Over the road long haul trucking is more expensive, at least when one factors out the subsidized roads, and more polluting, so the long term prognosis for the industry is good.

FWIW, I’m not a rail buff*, though I was a locomotive structures engineer at GE Transportations for a couple of years in the 1990s†, but I think that it is an industry and a technology that has been under utilized in the US.

*Rail buffs are the folks who staked out the prototype shop at GE to see the new AC6000 on tests in 1996.
†Damn!!! It does seem that I’m the Kevin Bloody bacon of employment, doesn’t it.

GM to Use LiIon Batteries in Hybrid Car Models

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I think that it’s clear that the lithium-ion batteries chosen by GM are superior to the standard NiMH, they are more efficient and lighter, but there are problems.

The article mentions overheating, but they actually heat up less in use.

The real problem is what is euphemistically called “rapid disassembly” in battery manufacturing*, which occurs when batteries overheat or are overcharged.

Basically because of the chemistry of a LiIon battery, these can cause dendrites, basically metal whiskers, to form between anode and cathode, shorting out the battery and discharging all of its energy in a matter of seconds.

Think about the Dell exploding laptops on crack. It looks a lot like a flare going off.

Of course, this would not be a problem with a properly designed system, but we are talking about General Motors, the folks who used the same aluminum alloy as Mercedes Benz for its Vega engine, but but chose a coolant that corroded aluminum.

I’d wait for at least the 3rd model year before buying.

*I worked for a battery manufacturer for a while.†
†And now my regular readers, both of them, are wondering if there is any field of endeavor where I haven’t worked. Well, yes. High finance. If I had worked on that, I’d have the money to spare for a domain name.

Well On Our Way to the Police State

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What is a police state?

I would argue that it is a country in which all rights are sublimated to increasing the capabilities of the state security apparatus to conduct any business that it desires without impediment.

No bothersome warrants, no consideration of the rights of the accused, torture, no privacy, etc.

Cases in point:

  • FBI intends to assemble a massive database of physical characteristics of people, including retinal and iris scans, palm prints, and tattoos.
    • Of course my initial response to the idea of a database of tattoos was, “Why bother. Just tattoo numbers on people’s wrists. It worked so well the last time out.”
  • And then we have some crypto-fascist at DHS who wants to require Real ID cards to track people’s cold medication purchases. I understand that pseudoephedrin can make meth, but this is insane.
  • Of course, in a police state, you have to have massive prisons stuffed to the gills with people, so AG Mukasey wants congress to act because people who got disproportionate sentences under the racist crack laws might will get out earlier under the new sentencing guidelines.
    • Dude, that was the whole idea of changing the guidelines. The disproportionate sentencing was deliberately racist, and demonstrably so, and this is why they want it changed. Rockefeller style drug laws have proved a failure. All it’s left the US with is the greatest proportioned of imprisoned in the world.
  • Finally, we are requiring permission for USA citizens to return to the US.

    Under new regulations and procedures announced to take effect over the next month, citizens of the USA will, for the first time, be required to obtain USA government permission in order to return home to their own country from abroad — from anywhere else in the world, by air or sea or land.

    On no other aspect of the right to travel is international law more clear than on the right of return to the country of one’s own citizenship: “No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of the right to enter his own country.” The new regulations are a flagrant violation of the obligations of the USA as a party to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and other international human rights treaties, as well as a violation of the Constitutional duty of the USA government to treat such treaties as the highest law of the land.

I want my country back.

Another Three Month for Boeing 787 First Flight

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It’s already been delayed at least once, and now the first flight of the 787 is delayed until at least 3 months, to the end of the 2nd quarter.

In a statement, Boeing Commercial Airplanes chief executive Scott Carson says “we continue to be challenged by start-up issues in our factory and in our extended global supply chain”.

Well, duh.

It was originally supposed to have a first flight in August of 2007, and now they are saying may or June of 2008.

Of interest is the fact that the press, particularly the American press is not running around saying, “the sky is falling”, as they did with the roughly 18 month delay on the A380.

Part of the reason is that it’s easier for the press to find some Eurocrat tied into Airbus to wring his hands publicly, not surprising given its origins as a state sponsored enterprise, and part of it, at least in the US is a cultural bias against Airbus because of its state origins (kind of necessary, everything in Europe had gotten the %$#@ bombed out of it 25 years prior).

Gas Tax Increase Recommended by National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission

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They have recommended a 40¢ a gallon to meet the infrastructure maintenance for roads and bridges.

Obviously, I think that we need to maintain our infrastructure, but I would add a couple of caveats to any gas tax:

  • Over the road truckers are heavily subsidized relative to railroads, which would generally be more energy efficient and economical, and they should pay their own way, which would imply additional taxes and fees for long haul truckers.
  • If taxes are raised, at least half of the revenues should go to mass transit.

Obviously, our infrastructure is falling apart, and needs to be fixed, but it should not be another subsidy.

TSA Detains 5 Year Old

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Good for them. How do you know that this kid wasn’t a a Jihadist with a glandular condition?

Seriously though, this does no one any good:

When his mother went to pick him up and hug him and comfort him during the proceedings, she was told not to touch him because he was a national security risk. They also had to frisk her again to make sure the little Dillinger hadn’t passed anything dangerous weapons or materials to his mother when she hugged him.

Score one for Red Ken, Congestion Pricing Works

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I would suggest that people look at this analysis of London’s congestion pricing scheme.

Basically, they have license plate scanners set up at entry points around central London, and commuters are charged £8 per day to enter the center city (residents get a discount).

The proceeds from this charge go to mass transit.

Before implementing this, London speeds were less than 10 miles per hour, with 30% of the time being sitting not moving at all.

The impact of the scheme exceeded expectations. In the first year of the charge, traffic delays in London dropped by 30 percent, journey time reliability increased by 30 percent, and average speeds rose 17 percent, reflecting a sharp fall in traffic jams at intersections (the time spent traveling at speeds less than 6 mph decreased by one-third). The charge also changed who was using the roads: private car trips dropped by 34 percent, and trucks and vans by 5 to 7 percent, but bus, taxi, and bike trips all rose sharply. The overall impact was a noticeable improvement in traffic conditions.

The London experience has also shown that it’s possible – and important – to spread the benefits of congestion pricing widely. By committing to plough all the revenues raised by the congestion charge into public transportation improvements, London has ensured that congestion pricing didn’t just improve mobility for car drivers who can pay the charge (the “Lexus lanes” problem) but also increased access to the city centre for everyone. Innovative policies, such as the popular mass bike-share program in Paris, can also help to spread the benefits.

This is simple, it can be implemented in a matter of months, and it is revenue positive, which makes it too sensible to happen here.

Bloomberg tried to implement it in New York City, and the state legislature shot it down.