According to Zimbabaw’s state run newspaper, The Herald, reconciliation talks are to start tomorrow.
It’s not a bad sign, but I don’t expect to see progress while Mbeki is the chief mediator.
A slightly more positive note, the EU is pressing ahead with more sanctions.
SecDef Robert Gates is said that increasing militarization of foreign policy is something that he has to push back against at a speech a week ago at U.S. Global Leadership Council.
I think that this is an explicit refutation of Rumsfeld, and his attempts to make the Pentagon the decision authority on all levels, particularly in Iraq, where the State Department and other civilian agencies were explicitly cut out of any decision making, or even consultation.
I believe that Gates is right, but I do not believe that he will get much traction on this in this administration, particularly given the given the trajectory of U.S. Africa command (Africom):
Africom is slated to begin operations in September. It marks the Pentagon’s first centralized operation for Africa, like the Defense Dept. now has, for example, Eucom for Europe or Centcom for the Middle East. The Pentagon, though, has envisioned using Africom as more than a military command. It is designed to help build U.S. soft power in Africa, through what it calls “active security” missions — like building schools and digging wells.
(Matt Mahurin) To many African political leaders, this sounds a lot like an imperialist enterprise. They say Africom’s “active security” will result in the construction of military bases across the continent in order to interfere with sovereign political systems — and access the region’s oil reserves. Currently, the Pentagon has only one African base, at Dijbouti in the perpetually unstable, resource-poor Horn of Africa.
Which appears to be moving in exactly the opposite direction.
On the bright side, Mugabe and Tsvangerai have signed an agreement to enter into negotiations.
I’m not optimistic about the outcome, as Mugabe is still engaging in retribution, and just threatened to expropriate “unfriendly” firms.
Even more concerning is that Thabo Mbeki appears to still be the only mediator involved in the process, which seems to be a recipe for an “Epic Fail”.
It’s clear that his clear favoritism toward Mugabe has weakened the SADC, the regional governmental organization, with a number of countries, most notably Zambia and Botswana, breaking with Mbeki’s accommodation of Mugabe.
Rather than asking for explicit his explicit removal, the MDC is now requesting that another mediator in addition to Thabo Mbeki be included in MDC-ZANU-PF talks.
Interestingly enough, it appears that Mbeki’s pathetic performance as mediator is getting some visibility, as you can see in this Washington Post articlediscussing how the South African president’s legacy has been harmed by his embrace of Mugabe.
So the MDC nd ZANU-PF have agreed to start negotiations, but the MDC is asking the AU to appoint a second mediator, because they think that Thabo Mbeki is completely in the tank for Mugabe.
The depressing thing is that they are completely right.
So, we now have the official public request.
I think that the immediate result will be a massive increase of violence directed toward the UN peacekeepers, and Chinese vetoes against anything further in the security council.
Well, the lede here has to be that both China and Russia vetoed sanctions on Zimbabwe. They claim that it is unacceptable “meddling” in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation.
The MDC and ZANU-PF have started negotiations on who negotiations should proceed, which has shades of negotiating on the shape of the table in the 1960s, though with the support of China and Russia (and South Africa which also voted against the sanctions), I rather imagine not much will come of all this.
Well, it looks like FIFA is weighing in on Zimbabwe and Mbeki’s support of Mugabe, as they are now making statements that seem to imply that the world cup may be moved because of “regional instability”.
As lame as it sounds, this may be the only thing to keep Mbeki from being Mugabe’s agent in this matter.
Still the news is generally not good with ZANU-PF planning to escalate the violence against the opposition.
As to negotiations, were are getting conflicting reports, and Tsvangirai has just denied that there are any talks in process.
Botswana has taken what I believe to be the proper stance, saying that they do not recognize Mugabe as president.
Interestingly, we have reports that Mugabe has been effectively sidelined by the 6 top members of the state security apparatus, and that they are more brutal than Mugabe.
We are also seeing increasing calls for sanctions, which, predicably, the Mugabe regime called racist.
This is not surprising if you were running a country whose economy, because of European colonialism, was a basket case, and remittances from illegal aliens in Europe were keep said economy afloat, you would condemn stricter immigration rules too.
The basic facts are these: A nation has a right to control the flow of immigration into that country, and the goal of immigration should be no illegal immigration.
If these goals were focused on, as opposed having the discussion devolving into a fight between open borders “jobs we won’t do” types and racist nativists, then policy and enforcement would be both more effective and more humane, because it would focus on the employers of illegals, as opposed to use of state security forces to harass illegal aliens.
Well, it’s not getting any better.the government is “embracing and extending” the idea of using food aid as a weapon, even after the election.
The Guardian now has hidden camera video of voter intimidation, if you want to check it out.
Of course, Mbeki is still trying to be the mediator, even when it is unbelievably clear that he is no where near impartial in this matter.
Meanwhile, the US is pushing for sanctions against the government of Zimbabwe and its leaders, including an arms embargo and Freezing foreign assets of Zimbzbwean leaders.
We do have a potential promising development, a proposal in which Mugabe would remain president, but retain essentially no power, but this appears to be confused, with Mugabe apparently insisting that negotiations occur at the presidential offices, which would appear to cede that to Mugabe before the first words were said.
As is expected, the African Union studiously avoided any criticism of Mugabe, though it did call for a unity government.
This is to be expected. After all many of these leaders are in place through electoral processes that are similar to what happened in Zimbabwe, though obviously less extreme.
The AU is hoping for something similar to what happened in Kenya, where the person who stole the election remained in power but had to throw some patronage positions to the oppositions.
Meanwile, Tsvangirai has declined to negotiate a junior position in a unity government. He is saying that conditions are not right for talks.
This is not surprising, considering that violence and murder are still going on.
Additionally, I believe that Tsvangirai is explicitly rejecting any involvement in the negotiations by Thabo Mbeki, which is not surprising, since Mbeki is Mugabe’s butt boy.
The EU is calling Mugabe’s government illegitimate, and demanding that » Tsvangirai lead any unity government, though, unsurprisingly South Africa is rejecting both.
An indication that the instability may spread is the fact that Botswana has sealed off its border with Zimbabwe.
It’s unclear whether this is because it intends to sever relations, or if it is worried about refugee flows, or both.
Well, Officials: Mugabe has won his phony election, and has been sworn in.
It also that Tsvangirai has hardened his stance a bit, saying that there will be no unity government with the MDC as a junior partner.
Bush is calling for more sanctions, but they are not enough. If Bush were to threaten sanctions against banks with subsidiaries doing business in Zimbabwe, the cash that the ZANU-PF uses to reward loyalists, and Mugabe would be out in a week.
Nobel laureate Desmond Tutu has declared that the “international community has the right now to override the sovereignty argument of the country.”
As a first step, he would shut down commerical air transport from Zimbabwe, which would mean that, “Mugabe and his sidekicks would not be able to — as they are now — escape the rigors of their own policies.”
And it appears that it’s not enough that Mugabe and his thugs forced Tsvangirai out of the race, that they are now using violence to force people into the ballot booths:
In some other suburbs of Harare, the capital, residents said they had been rounded up Thursday night, forced to chant pro-Mugabe slogans until daybreak and then force-marched to the polls. They were told to copy the serial numbers off their ballots so it could be confirmed later that they had voted for their 84-year-old president.
(emphasis mine)
The interesting thing is that I think that I’m more disgusted with South African President Thabo Mbeki than I am with Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe.
As near as I can figure out, Mbeki is Mugabe’s butt boy because he is afraid that what is happening in Zimbabwe, where the trade union movement became the basis for a popular political movement, will happen in South Africa, where the trade unions have become increasingly hostile to the ANC and its IMF driven cheap labor policies.
We are getting some decent news now, specifically that MDC Secretary Tendai Biti was released on bail pending his treason charge, and Mugabe is suggesting negotiations following the runoff election.
Honestly, I don’t see Mugabe backing down until he is dead or in custody though, particularly since he is insisting that the election, which he has turned into a bloody farce, should be held on schedule.
I’m not sure why Morgan Tsvangirai is walking away from his earlier call for armed peace keepers, but he is juxtaposing this with a 24-hour deadline to enter into good faith negotiations with him.
I think that Tsvangirai may be playing to Mugabe’s allies in the ZANU-PF, with comments to the effect that Mugabe is “self-destructing”.
The implication here is that if he does, then the rest of the ruling structure is at risk too.
It also appears that South Africa’s ANC has finally be forced into doing the right thing, as they are finally condemning what is going on there.
My guess is that Nelson Mandela’s calling the events in Zimbabwe a, “Tragic Failure of leadership”, left them no other choice.
It turns out that Tsvangirai’s withdrawal from the runoff has, if anything, intensified ZANU-PF thuggery.
Of course, in response, you have the African National Congress coming out in favor of doing nothing about all this. Increasingly, I believe that there are elements in the ANC who believe that Mugabe’s fate will be theirs one day, and so they will support him to the bloody end.
Morgan Tsvangirai is calling for international isolation and armed peace keepers before a fair election can be held.
I will say that when the most effective action taken on all this so far is Queen Elizabeth II stripping Mugabe of his knighthood, you know that the regional and international response is pretty pathetic.
Barack Obama has condemned Mugabe, and has talked with Tsvangirai on the phone.
Truth be told, this surprises me.
I don’t think that there is really any electoral advantage in all this.
In a New York Times OP/ED, Peter Godwin muses on what to do about the brutal war that Mugabe is waging on his own people.
He notes that the international community should delegitimize the Mugabe regime, and take steps to recognize the government in exile.
Then he has his moment of genius:
Of course, South Africa could use its economic power to draw Mr. Mugabe’s rule to an end in weeks rather than months. Yet Mr. Mbeki has steadfastly refused to act, providing a protective cloak for Mr. Mugabe’s repression. And just a few weeks ago, even as opposition members were being tortured, Mr. Mbeki visited Zimbabwe, allowing himself to be garlanded at the airport and displayed on state-run TV with a broadly grinning Mr. Mugabe. In the United Nations Security Council, where South Africa currently has a seat, Mr. Mbeki has opposed attempts to put the political situation in Zimbabwe on the agenda.
If Mr. Mbeki’s cost-benefit calculus has been such that he hasn’t seen it necessary to take tougher action, perhaps it’s time to change that calculus. Perhaps, for example, now is not the time for you to book a safari to South Africa. Or for you, or any institution that manages your funds, to make new investments in the country.
Most important, there is the FIFA soccer World Cup, for which South Africa is to act as host in 2010. That may seem like a long way off, but South Africa is already investing huge amounts both financially and politically, for what is supposed to be its triumphal coming-out party. Maybe Zimbabwe should become to the South Africa-hosted World Cup what Tibet has been to the Beijing Olympics — the pungent albatross that spoils every press conference and mars every presentation with its insistent odor.
Perhaps it’s time to share the Zimbabweans’ pain, to help persuade Mr. Mbeki to bear down on its source by threatening to grab the world’s soccer ball and take our games elsewhere.
I don’t follow soccer, so I was unaware that the World Cup would be in South Africa.
This is brilliant, and people should start lobbying FIFA now to change the venue.
Morgan Tsvangirai says that he will leave the Dutch embassy shortly, and the UN Security Council is now saying that the violence has made the runoff election a sham.
Needless to say, it does not help that the African National Congress has explicitly rejected any international intervention, though the Congress of South African Trade Unions has called Mugabe’s regime illegitimate.
As Will Bunch says, the only way to get a meaningful intervention there is to find massive oil reserves, so perhaps the MDC needs to start drilling.
While he has not formally requested asylym, it’s clear that Tsvangirai believes that his life is in danger, which is why he’s sleeping there.
We also have Thabo Mbeki traveling to Zimbabwe, to make a “final plea” to Mugabe about doing the right thing. We can be sure that Mbeki’s effort will be ineffectual, and will be full of enabling language. That is what he’s done for the past 10 years.
Basically, he’s saying that any election would be a sham because of the levels of violence.
Needless it does not help that Mugabe is claiming rule through divine right:
“Only God, who appointed me, will remove me, not the MDC, not the British,” Mugabe declared in the city of Bulawayo on Friday. “Only God will remove me!”
Tsvangirai is also calling for international intervention, though it is clear that as long as Thabo Mbeki is involved in the process, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) will do nothing, so any meaningful intervention will have to go through the UN, as South Africa is the colossus of the region, but Thabo Mbeki, South Africa’s president, is the functions as the moral pygmy shielding Mugabe.
Thankfully, he should be succeeded by Jacob Zuma in the less than a month.
Hopefully, individual countries will go the route of Australia, and impose tough sanctions, such as, “financial sanctions and suspending non-humanitarian aid, and defence and ministerial links, besides travel bans on members of the Zimbabwe regime.”
What I find remarkable is that even with the violence and criminality of ZANU-PF in the runoff, they are still not sure that they can win an election, because there are now reports that there are arguments among the leadership as to what should be done if he loses.
Seriously, it appears that they are running up against their limits as vote riggers.
It has apparently gotten so bad that Mbeki is actually starting to propose solutions, specifically something similar to what happened in Kenya, with a PM and a unity government.
I think that this is unlikely, as Mugabe’s government is proceeding with the trumped uptreason trial of Tendai Biti, the secretary-general of the MDC.