Category: Africa

Zimbabwe Update

No Comments

Things are not looking good there.

First, we have Mbeki visiting Zimbabwe, and my best guess would be that he told Mugabe that he was doing just fine. Certainly Mbeki’s visit did nothing to prevent Mugabe from expelling a UN human rights official.

It increasingly appears that the Jacob Zuma, who is under investigation for corruption, is the only leader in the ANC who is showing moral authority. This time, he’s saying that the runoff has been tainted by Mugabe’s actions.

Assuming he stays out of jail, Zuma should succeed Mbeki shortly, which would be to the benefit of everyone in sub-Saharan Africa.

It is also worth noting that Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, himself no stranger to stolen elections, has called on Mugabe to step down.

Finally, we have the continuing problem of violence by the opposition’s skulls against ZANU-PF batons and pipes. The mayor of Harare and 4 MDC activists bodies were found bludgeoned to death.

Mugabe Calls on Opposition to Stop Breaking Batons With Their Skulls

No Comments

Also, I believe that he objects at the opposition’s attempts to stain perfectly good steel toed boots with their blood.

I am, of course, speaking metaphorically. He’s actually threatening to arrest members of the opposition because he claims that they are instigating violence.

I actually find it reassuring. We in the US don’t have the most shameless leader in the world.

Zimbabwe is Getting Worse

No Comments

We have food aid intended for children seized and handed out at a Mugabe rally, which would be bad parody if it weren’t true.

We’ve also had MDC’s number two man, Secretary General Tendai Biti, arrested and charged with treason, which carries a death penalty, for writing a document describing a transition to MDC rule.

It appears that the judiciary is functioning on some level though, as a judge has directed the police to bring him to court tomorrow.

Mugabe is merrily escalating the violance, deploying more ‘war vetrans’ to the campaign, and telling them that they should be Mugabe says war vets ready for battle.

The UN secretary general is sending Haile Menkerios as a high ranking envoy to Zimbabwe in an attempt to resolve this issue, but I do not think that it will do any good.

Zimbabwe: Mbeki “Loses” Letters from, Tsvangirai, Courts Rule Against ZANU-PF

No Comments

A letter has reached the South African newspapers from Morgan Tsvangirai pleading with Thabo Mbeki to do something, and his office claims to have “never received the letter”.

Simply disgraceful.

The courts in Zimbabwe actually seem to be doing their jobs though, ordering the release of a jailed opposition MP, and reversing the police ban on rallies, though this may not help much with ZANU-PF thugs using violence to disrupt the rallies.

It’s no wonder that Human Rights Watch is calling for intervention.

South Africa and Brazil Enter Joint Development for A-Darter Missile

No Comments

South Africa has been working on this missile for some time, and the jount development agreement should bring some more resources to the project.

It’s clearly been delayed a bit, as the SAAF has purchased German IRIS-T missiles as an interim fit.

The A-Darter is a short range IR guided air to air missile, and appears rather similar to the British ASRAAM, with no forward wings, though it has thrust vector vanes in the exhaust, implying a bit more agility off the rail:

This would also imply a dual thrust motor, with low thrust in the first second or so, so as to allow for optimum operation of the thrust vector paddles.

Zimbabwe Seems to Be Getting Worst

No Comments

Tsvangirai was detained again, the currency crash inflation problem is accelerating, the Mugabe government has banned opposition rallies, and the so called “war veterans” threatened to burn diplomats alive.

Helen Zille, leader of South Africa’s opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, has called for President Thabo Mbeki to speak out over what is going on in Zimbabwe.

Won’t happen. Mbeki won’t ever say a word against Mugabe, for reasons that are not clear to me.

Zimbabwe: Tsvangirai Arrested, then Released and NGOs Targeted

No Comments

Morgan Tsvangirai was stopped at a road block by Zimbabwean security forces, and held for 8 hours before being released.

He had been charged with, “drawing a big crowd”…I’m not joking here.

So we clearly have an official policy of disruption and intimidation of his campaign.

Additionally, the government has ordered CARE and other NGOs to cease operations, likely for 2 reasons: They don’t want witnesses, and if the government is the only entity allowed to supply aid, it becomes easier to use this aid as a weapon.

South Africa/Zimbabwe Update

No Comments

Morgan Tsvangirai has now returned to Zimbzbwe, and is campaigning in the runoff.

Meanwhile, Mugabe has changed his campaign tactics, trying to work with small groups, as opposed to his previous mass rallies, and he’s railing against both Tsvangirai and the US ambassador to Zimbabwe, which I think is a prelude to some more violence and intimidation from his “war veterans”.

Meanwhile, in South Africa, Thabo Mbeki is calling the violence against refugees in his country a “disgrace”.

Of course, the largest group of refugees, those from Zimbabwe, were as a direct result of his policies supporting Mugabe, and the tensions are a direct result of their numbers.

Zimbabwe Update

No Comments

There are now allegations of assassination plans against Morgan Tsvangirai though he is planning to return. It has been put off a couple of times now, but he needs to start campaigning soon, as the date for the presidential runoff is set at June 27.

In the department of Kafka, we have Mugabe accusing the MDC of political violence and arresting newly elected MDC MPs.

In related news, violence against refugees, particularly those from Zimbabwe is spreading across South Africa.

With unemployment among the poor in excess of 30%, and the use of refugee labor to keep down native wages as an unofficial policy of the government, this was foreseeable.

However, a part of this may very be a result fact that the refugee flows have been driven by Thabo Mbeki’s unqualified support of Robert Mugabe, and so some element of rage against him, particularly now that he is a lame duck, may be a contributing factor.

Finally, the International Crisis Group is warning of the possibility of a military coup. I agree.

I could see them deposing Mugabe before the elections, as really believes that he cannot be defeated in the election, and senior officials in the state security apparatus harbor no such delusions. They stole the first round.

They realize that investigations into human rights violations over the years would be a personal threat to them.

Zimbabwe Runoff to Be Delayed, ZANU-PF Placing Conditions on Election Observers

No Comments

Theoretically, the runoff for president of Zimbabwe is supposed to be held within 21 days of the announcement of results, but the electoral commission is saying that it will not be able to conduct an election in that time frame.

I’m not sure how much is organizational incompetence, and how much is the desire of ZANU-PF to have time to use the state security forces to intimidate the opposition.

The MDC has demanded outside observers/peacekeepers for the elections, and Mugabe’s government has not been receptive, to put it mildly.

They are now demanding an end to economic sanctions before allowing western observers in.

Zimbabwe Elections Update

No Comments

Any similarities between this and Bush v. Gore are not coincidental….Though the MDP has a lot more in the way of Cojones than do the Dems.

We now the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) saying that they doubt the official presidential election results, and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is talking about some sort of UN in the runoff elections.

In the parliamentary elections, we have protests on over half the seats, with the ZANU-PF and the MDC lodging 53 and 52 seats respectively.

In the what took you so long, the Zimbabwean opposition is calling for Mbeki’s replacement as mediator. Seeing as how Thabo Mbeki has done everything in his power to support Mugabe, it is not surprising that he has no credibility left.

Unfortunately, it appears that the MDC will not participate in the runoff, at least that’s their word for now, as they claim that Morgan Tsvangirai won outright.

He probably did, but a boycott won’t help.

Journalists, lawyer arrested in Zimbabwe – CNN.com

Zimbabwe: Opposition May Participate in Runoff

No Comments

At least they have not ruled it out, though they are calling for a foreign verification of the vote first.

Additionally, MDC is suggesting that some sort of power sharing may be possible witn ZANU-PF, but not with Robert Mugabe.

This is a sensible position. Mugabe appears to be viewed as a lame duck by even his allies, and this might be a way to ease him out.

The core of the matter is that considering the dire straights the country is in, whoever is president will have very limited options in policy, and the same applies to whoever leads the parliament, so “anyone but Mugabe” is not an unreasonable position.

Zimbabwe, the Votes are Finally Officially Counted

No Comments

And to no one’s surprise, they are saying that there has to be a runoff between Tsvangirai and Mugabe.

No surprise here. The amount of vote fraud for Mugabe to win was simply not possible, but the amount to take it to a runoff, not so much a problem. 47.9% Tsvangirai, 43.2% Mugabe.

The opposition is saying, with decent justification, that they won outright, and are threatening not to participate in the runoff, which would give Mugabe exactly what he wants.

I would note that while Mugabe is promising to respect the results of a runoff, the fact is that a fair election and a fair campaign are simply not possible while Mugabe and ZANU-PF continue their campaign of terror and intimidation against the MDC.

UN voices reluctance to act on Zimbabwe – International Herald Tribune

And in the same old, same old category, South Africa is the major stumbling block to the security council doing anything.

I expect this to continue until Thabo Mbeki leaves office. He’s a bigger cheerleader for Mugabe than GW Bush was for the Yale Baseball team.