Category: Civil War

The Americans Leave Sadr City, and the Violence Ends

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As this Washington Post article notes, U.S. Absence Seems To Make Difference:

Sadr City is a largely impoverished section of Baghdad that is home to about 2 million people, many of whom support the anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a onetime backer of Maliki who has become his chief rival. Sadrist officials negotiated the entry of Iraqi troops, apparently winning agreement that U.S. forces would stay out.

This is not by accident. While the American public is shielded from this, it is clear that American deployment stirs up nationalistic violence, and it is also clear that, notwithstanding US protestations of precision, the carpet bombing of whole neighborhoods that provide any level of threat make the violence a couple of magnitudes worse beyond that.

We need to leave now.

Sadr City as Iraqi Troops Enter Slum

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So far, it appears that Iraqi troops have now been able to enter the city and set up check points, though they did find a weapons cache.

I’m not optimistic. Both sides are waiting for the right moment to restart this, though my money is on Maliki doing it, because if he does not disrupt the Iraqi provincial elections, which have now been oh so conveniently pushed past the November US elections, it’s pretty clear that his party Dawa, and that of the his Hakeem allies, will get shellacked.

U.S. Sits on Iran Weapons Report

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The excuse is that it’s been that they’ve, turned it over to the Iraqi Government* “to pressure Tehran to curb the flow of Iranian weaponry and explosives into Iraq.

Of course, these weapons are primarily going towards the militias of Dawa and ISCI, who are, nominally at least, the government in Iraq.

The reality is that they are doing what worked so well for Joe McCarthy. Claim to have a list, and use it as a club, even when no such list exists, or when such a list is so poorly made as to be laughable.

I imagine we’ll see selected leaks when Maliki attempts to use it for partisan political advantage during the provincial elections.

*An oxymoron if there ever was one.

Iraqis fire surface-to-air missile at chopper over Sadr City – On Deadline – USATODAY.com

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The cease fire in Sadr City appears to be holding for the moment in Baghdad, though if I were a US military man, I would be rather concerned at the report that someone, probably a Mahdi Army member, fired a surface-to-air missile at at a helicopter before things settled down.

This was likely not a lone combatant making this decision. This was likely a conscious decision made as a warning to the US that the militias have resources that could mean that air operations over the Baghdad slum will no longer be quite so easy.

For some context, I would suggest that this article from Think Progress goes a long way towards explaining Muqtada al-Sadr’s popularity. Money quote:

One of the central elements of the elder Sadr’s program (and now of Muqtada’s) was a distinction between the “silent clerics” (represented by Sistani and the Najaf establishment) — bookish sorts who stay remote from the lives of their people — and the “speaking clerics” who take part in the suffering and struggle of the Shia, as Sadeq did. And here the “silent clerics” once again stayed silent while Shia were crushed in Sadr City, of all places, while medical care, food, and shelter are being doled out in Muqtada’s name. It doesn’t require any math to see that Sadr benefits politically from this.

Cease Fire in Sadr City

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There appears to be a tentative cease fire in Sadr City:

Under the terms of the agreement, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s government would gain control over Sadr City, now a largely lawless area, and in turn give members of Mr. Sadr’s militia who were not actively involved in the fighting a guarantee that they would not be arrested.

I’m not sure that Maliki will have any meaningful control thouhg, though rockets into the Green Zone are likely to decrease, but this was shaping up to be a disaster for Maliki as well as Sadr:

The Iraqi government has done little to ease the crisis and allow medical and other aid to reach people. There has been almost no effort to repair the shattered neighborhood, where burned-out cars and piles of bricks from bomb-damaged houses are common sights.

If this had gone to a full offensive, we would have seen massive artillery and air strikes, and the neither Iraqi government nor the US military had resources available to handle the 100 thousand or so refugees who would have been created, which would have been politically disasterous for Dawa and ISCI.

Note that once again Iran had to take the lead in mediating this. Our military presence bolsters Iran’s regional ambitions.

Iraq Plans to Go “Apocalypse Now” Out in Sadr City

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They are ordering civilians to leave, and they are preparing tent cities in soccer stadiums. I think that they intend to go Fallujah on Sadr City, where somewhere around half the buildings were destroyed.

The problem is that neither the US military nor the Iraqi government can take care of the thousands of people who will be displaced by this.

Nouri al-Maliki must be desperate to get rid of the Sadrists before the provincial elections.

Iraq, with an Iran Provocation Extra

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4 Marines died today, and Hiro Ibrahim Ahmed, the wife of President Jalal Talabani was the target of an assassination attempt, a roadside bomb targeting her as she went to cultural festival.

Note that this was in Baghdad, not Kurdistan.

I would also point to this story describing a pretty massive buildup at the Al Kut air base, which is just 35 miles from the Iranian border.

I can’t see this as anything but a deliberate provocation, or a prelude to an attack on Iran.

I think that Bush may attack Iran out of a petulant need to leave something else on his successor’s plate.

Iraq

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The major Sunni parties have agreed in principle to rejoin the Iraqi government, and Moktada al-Sadr has called on his supporters to “to wage open war against the Americans” but forbade them from “raising a hand against another Iraqi citizen.”

I’m not sure how this will all play out.

Since it’s Iraq and Maliki, both of whom have never failed to disappoint, I think that any concessions on the part of ISCI and Dawa would be primarily as a a part of a deliberate strategy to isolate Sadr in time for the elections, so wonders how long this Sunni-Shia rapproachment last, given that it is clearly seen as short term by Malki.

Even Now, Bush and His Evil Minions™ Can Leave Me Dumbstruck

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Every time that I think that the Bush Administration can’t get any more self serving venal and incompetent, they rais the bar.

This time, it’s the worst National Security Adviser ever, shortly to be the worst Secretary of State ever, Condoleeza Rice, who has just basically called Muqtada al-Sadr a c@cks#cker.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice mocked anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr as a coward on Sunday, hours after the radical leader threatened to declare war unless U.S. and Iraqi forces end a military crackdown on his followers.

Rice, in the Iraqi capital to tout security gains and what she calls an emerging political consensus, said al-Sadr is content to issue threats and edicts from the safety of Iran, where he is studying. Al-Sadr heads an unruly militia that was the main target of an Iraqi government assault in the oil-rich city of Basra last month, and his future role as a spoiler is an open question.

“I know he’s sitting in Iran,” Rice said dismissively, when asked about al-Sadr’s latest threat to lift a self-imposed cease-fire with government and U.S. forces. “I guess it’s all-out war for anybody but him,” Rice said. “I guess that’s the message; his followers can go too their deaths and he’s in Iran.”

This from a woman unwilling to announce her visits to Iraq in advance, who spends her whole time in a heavily fortified walled city, and has something like 1000 soldiers, and an equal number of mercenaries protecting her.

Un f#$@ing believable.

An Insight into the Clusterf%$# in Basra

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It now appears that Petraeus has had a plan of a massive US offensive in Basra for some time, and Nouri al-Maliki, fearful of the political blow-back from US operations there, launched his own campaign last month.

The last three paras reveal that the politics here are Byzantine:

Bush administration suspicions of al-Maliki’s intentions could not have been eased by the fact that a delegation of pro-government parties traveled to Iran to ask the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to negotiate a ceasefire with the Mahdi Army. That ploy move, which did result in a tenuous ceasefire, raised the possibility that al-Maliki intended from the beginning that the outcome of the Basra operation would be a new agreement that would prevent the deployment of U.S. and British troops to fight the Mahdi Army during the summer.

Bush administration officials have been asserting that the most important thing about the Basra operation is that al-Maliki is now convinced that Iran is really an enemy rather than a friend. But al-Maliki’s Apr. 7 interview with CNN’s Robertson made it clear that he has not budged from his position that his government’s interests lie in an accord between Iran and the United States — not in taking sides against Iran.

“We will always reject the idea of any side using Iraq as a launching pad for its attack on others,” said al-Maliki. “We reject Iran using Iraq to attack the U.S., and at the same time we reject the idea of the U.S. using Iraq to attack Iran…”

Why the hell are we in there again?

Sadr City, Warsaw Ghetto, What’s the Dif?

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Any answer to my question?

U.S. Begins Erecting Wall in Sadr City
By MICHAEL R. GORDON

BAGHDAD — Trying to stem the infiltration of militia fighters, American forces have begun to build a massive concrete wall that will partition Sadr City, the densely populated Shiite neighborhood in the Iraqi capital.

The construction, which began Tuesday night, is intended to turn the southern quarter of Sadr City near the international Green Zone into a protected enclave, secured by Iraqi and American forces, where the Iraqi government can undertake reconstruction efforts.

This is what passes for moral leadership under Bush and His Evil Minions™.

I want my country back.

Iraq Update

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First, we are seeing
another surge in bombings across Iraq, which should make one doubt about the claims of success with the US military surge.

Part of the problem, of course, is that Maliki is fundamentally disinterested in anything other his own very sort term sectarian power needs. First, he actively participated in ethnic cleansing, and now the only groups providing any meaningful aid to the million or so internally displaced Iraqis are the militias.

As to the conflict with Sadr, which is all about Maliki trying to gain an electoral advantage, not Iran or “lawlessness”, Major General Jeffery Hammond has announced that the US military has no intention of moving any further into Sadr city, which sounds an awful lot like the start of a “Fallujah moment”, when the generals declare victory and pull out.

That being said, the Iraqi troops are not waiting for a declaration of victory, they are leaving now.

The episode began when Major Sattar, the leader of an Iraqi company that had taken up positions 700 yards in front of the Americans, suddenly appeared at Company B’s field headquarters in the southern part of Sadr City.

The major’s company had replaced a more battle-hardened Iraqi unit just two days earlier, and he had been unhappy to find that he would be occupying a position to the front of the better trained and equipped Americans.

I’d be unhappy if I were told that my job was to be a speed bump too.

US Iraqi Occupation Deal Not Near Resolution

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It appears that US and Iraqi negotiators have yet to resolve significant issues involved an occupation enabling agreement, in which Bush and His Evil Minions™ have been attempting an end run on the constitutional requirement that treaties require Senate approval to create an “Iraq forever” framework.

The sticking points appear to be:

  1. The immunity of the US military from Iraqi law.
  2. The immunity of the US contractors from Iraqi law.
  3. The authority to order raids.
  4. The authority to detain suspects.

If you look at these, these are questions of basic sovereignty, and the US wants nothing to do with real power to an Iraqi governing body.

This setback is a very good thing for the US and for Iraq. Neither benefits from continuing occupation.

Today in Iraq

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It now appears that, as expected religious leaders in Iraq have told Sadr that he does not have to disband the Mahdi militia.

This is not a surprising outcome. Any “disbanding” would only eliminate the already tenuous chain of command, and you would end up with dozens of smaller groups.

Meanwhile, the The Grauniad* appears to have gotten its hands on the status of forces agreement between Bush and Iraq.

It’s technically “temporary”, though it has no expiration date (kind of like the Billion Year Sea Org contracts), and it, “contains no limits on numbers of US forces, the weapons they are able to deploy, their legal status or powers over Iraqi citizens, going far beyond long-term US security agreements with other countries.”

*According to the Wiki, The Guardian, formerly the Manchester Guardian in the UK. It’s nicknamed the Grauniad because of its penchant for typographical errors, “The nickname The Grauniad for the paper originated with the satirical magazine Private Eye. It came about because of its reputation for frequent and sometimes unintentionally amusing typographical errors, hence the popular myth that the paper once misspelled its own name on the page one masthead as The Gaurdian, though many recall the more inventive The Grauniad.”

Iraq Update: Petraeus As Lying Dishonorable Disgrace to Uniform Edition

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We are still having c, see lashes between the Mahdi Militia and the Iranian Puppet Government forces.

David Petraeus is claiming that Iran supported the Mahdi militias in Basra, which is absolute BS.

While Iran wants a Shia dominated Iraq, they do not want Shia Arab nationalists dominating Iraq, they want people in their pocket, like Chalabi, Hakim, and Maliki.

Sir, in lying in this way to promote Bush’s war, you dishonor the sacrifices of your troops.

Iraq Over the Weekend, and a Conclusion

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Not really updated this for the past few days, as my wife’s birthday has taken precedence.

First, we have Maliki threating an escalation against the Mahdi Army (see here and here), and then we have reports that he’s seeking to ease tensions with the Mahdi Army, and that he has
suspended raids against them.

So it appears that there are some mixed signals out there.

It doesn’t help that the performance of the state security forces was atrocious, with More well over 1000 deserting or refusing to fight.

Abu Aardvark, who has an advantage over most bloggers, and for that matters most US journalists, in that he can read Arabic, the fact that Maliki’s response to all of this has been to recruit over 10,000 members of the Badr Brigades (you know, the ones who are in the pay of the Iranian Republican guard) and the Dawa militias, after insisting that there were no resources available to hire more forces after insisting that there were no positions available to Sunni security forces.

Nothing Maliki does is about anything but short term personal political advantage, which should come as no surprise.

In related news Muqtada al-Sadr is offering to help purge the security forces of militia elements, which I assume means elements of the Badr Brigades and the Dawa militia, and we are seeing an uptick of violence in Sadr City.

If this is not surreal enough for you, the State Department just renewed the contract for Blackwater security with out any changes to the terms, so they still have a license to kill with impunity.

Needless to say, being really pissed off by this, because there is one thing that all the various factions in Iraq can agree with, they want the unaccountable, incompetent, and violent mercenary forces out of their country.

Given the timing of the Basra raid, I have come to the conclusion that this was instigated by Bush and His Evil Minions™, particularly Dick Cheney, who visited just before this all blew up, at least in generalities, if not specifics.

I think that they wanted a dramatic sign of progress prior to the Petraeus testimony

No, This Is Not The Onion

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You just have to love this.

The Badr Brigades are militia of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI, the artist formerly known as SCIRI).

In addition ISCI and Maliki are doing their level best to ensure that they occupy as many positions in the security services, police and military, as possible.

During the Iran-Iraq war, the Badr Brigades fought for the Iranians. They were a part of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which the State Department has declared a terrorist organization.

As a result, these folks are literally collecting a pension from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

So, the dog that we choose to hunt with in Iraq is literally pulling a pension from the Ayatollahs.