Female suicide bomber kills 20.
It’s likely to get worse as the Maliki government continues its assassination campaign against the Awakening councils
Category: Civil War
Meanwhile, In Iraq
Imam Fouad Ali Hussein al-Douri, a leader in the so called “Awakening Councils”, was assassinated today, there is now a string of assassinations of Sunni leaders, and call me a cynic, but just as the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis pointed back to al Maliki, I’d guess that his folks are behind this too.
Al Maliki Isn’t Just Stirring Sh@# in Anbar
It looks like the Iraqi Army and Kurdish peshmerga are on the verge of facing off in Kurdistan too.
Heck of a job, Davey.
Iraq Takes Over in Anbar
While both the John Sidney McCain III and Bush and His Evil Minions&trade will cast this development as a success, it’s clear that Nouri al Maliki will be using this as an opportunity to crack down on the Sunnis and centralize his power, which will reverse much of the progress.
As if Things Didn’t Already Suck for Georgia
Dick Cheney will be visiting Tbilisi next week, which should be unpleasant for everyone involved.
Cindy McCain is going there too, doubtless to provide tips on make-up, face lifts, and shoe purchases, in addition to her obvious expertise in drug abuse.
Unsurprisingly, the Russian Duma voted to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent, but there has not yet been a definitive statement by Medvedev, as the formal recognition of a state is the president’s and not the Duma’s prerogative, though I expect one shortly, because of the Kosovo precedent.
The US is warning that this is “unacceptable”, and I expect that the Russians will consider this with just as much seriousness as the US considered similar Russian warnings on Kosovo.
I supported, and continue to support, the independence of Kosovo, but one of the negative consequences was that it provided a precedent of secession of regions in Europe, and it’s entirely possible that we may see a similar movement in the Crimea in the next few years as a result.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and France are saying that Russia remaining in the so-called buffer zones is a violation of the cease fire, and Russia is maintaining that these are called for under agreements negotiated in the 1990s, and are thus covered by the cease fire.
My prediction: I expect formal recognition of the two breakaway regions as sovereign nations by Russia in the near future, and significant distancing from Georgia, or at least from Saakashvili by the West. It’s already happening in “Old Europe”, and I would expect it to occur in the US in January.
And if You Believe This, I have a Bridge for Sale.
The Iraqi government is now claiming that a “rogue unit” is to blame for raids on Sunni politicians and the “Awakenening” movement.
This is despite the fact that they normally answer directly to prime minister Nouri al Maliki.
Iraq Looks to Head Back Down Toilet
One of the reasons that violence and US troop deaths have dropped in Iraq is because of the “Sunni Awakening”, where people in Sunni dominant areas stopped supporting the insurgency, either because of US salaries, or because they were sick and tired of al Qaeda in Iraq, and started patrolling as part of the “Awakening Councils”.
Well, it now appears that Iraqi prime minister Nouri al Maliki has decided to send his own bully boys after the leaders of the Sunni citizen patrols, and refusing to integrate them into the state security forces.
It appears that Maliki is going after Sadr too, which is not surprising, as the Sadrists are more popular in many areas than either the Iranian backed ISCI and Maliki’s Dawa party.
Newest Iraq Rumor: 3 Years to Withdrawal
The deal would pull us troops out of the cities in about a year, and full withdrawal of combat units would take place by some time in 2011.
There is “no provision for permanent US military bases in the country”, but it that does not mean that there won’t be bases, it means that they aren’t in this deal.
4 months to go…Way too much time for Bush to screw everything up for his sucessor.
There is a Cease Fire in Georgia, Sort of
It looks like there has been a cease fire accord signed between the Russians and the Georgians.
As to the net result of the accord, the Washington Post, being the paper that Bushies leak to when they want credibility (Moonie Times does not cut it), strongly suggests that Moscow capitulated to Western demands, because they were concerned about their role in international bodies.
I think that the reporting of the Los Angeles Times and the The Guardian, which see this as a Georgian capitulation.
The Georgian army has largely disintegrated, and the conditions of the terms are highly favorable to Moscow:
The key demands are that the Georgian leader pledges, in an agreement that is signed and legally binding, to abjure all use of force to resolve Georgia’s territorial disputes with the two breakaway pro-Russian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; and that Georgian forces withdraw entirely from South Ossetia and are no longer part of the joint “peacekeeping” contingent there with Russian and local Ossetian forces.
(emphasis mine)
The Russians are also maintaining their right to “additional security measures” until foreign monitors were in place.
This would support the reports that the Russians are still advancing (see also here, here, here, and here), and that the Russians had destroyed Georgian naval vessels.
Some of the reports had a convoy heading from Gori to Tbilisi, but this was denied by the Russian military, who said that they were, “Demilitarizing the area near the South Ossetia border so that Georgia could not launch new attacks.”
I don’t see the Russians entering Tbilisi, though I could see them setting up artillery in range of the city as a means of intimidation.
We are also getting reports of burining and looting in areas under Russian control.
It appears that the Russians are not doing this, but that Ossetian militias are, and the Russians are taking no action, to stop them.
Fighting Breaks Out in Lebanon Again
Seriously, the Middle East is a very f%$#ed up place.
Zimbabwe
Well, it looks like FIFA is weighing in on Zimbabwe and Mbeki’s support of Mugabe, as they are now making statements that seem to imply that the world cup may be moved because of “regional instability”.
As lame as it sounds, this may be the only thing to keep Mbeki from being Mugabe’s agent in this matter.
Still the news is generally not good with ZANU-PF planning to escalate the violence against the opposition.
As to negotiations, were are getting conflicting reports, and Tsvangirai has just denied that there are any talks in process.
Botswana has taken what I believe to be the proper stance, saying that they do not recognize Mugabe as president.
Interestingly, we have reports that Mugabe has been effectively sidelined by the 6 top members of the state security apparatus, and that they are more brutal than Mugabe.
We are also seeing increasing calls for sanctions, which, predicably, the Mugabe regime called racist.
Canadian Court Orders Review of US Deserter Refugee Status
The judge ruled that officially sanctioned brutality, even when it does not rise to the level of a crime against humanity, is sufficient to merit refugee status:
…..
While the immigration board concluded that some of the alleged conduct by the U.S military included a “disturbing level of brutality,” it said the conduct did not meet the definition of a war crime or a crime against humanity.
Barnes said the board erred “by concluding that refugee protection for military deserters and evaders is only available where the conduct objected to amounts to a war crime, a crime against peace or a crime against humanity.”
Citing a case from the U.S. Federal Court of Appeal, Barnes said officially condoned military misconduct could still support a refugee claim, even if it falls short of a war crime.
“The authorities indicate that military action which systematically degrades, abuses or humiliates either combatants or non-combatants is capable of supporting a refugee claim where that is the proven reason for refusing to serve,” Barnes wrote.
Barnes said the board imposed a legal standard that was “too restrictive” on Key, who lives in Saskatchewan.
Key’s lawyer, Jeffry House, said the ruling expands a soldier’s right to refuse military service.
…..
(emphasis mine)
They broke this man, the story mentions debilitating nightmares, and I’m sure that an examination would find more evidence of damage, and they wanted to send him back.
For us as a society, what should bother us is the broken men who go back to Iraq, and then, one day, they come home, because this will come home with them.
Very Wise:
Jim Henley of Unqualified Offerings notes the following about the surge:
The pretended meaning is, The US increased troop strength in Iraq for a period of time beginning in 2007. The actual meaning is, the US increased troop strength WHILE ramping up a program to pay off Sunni resistance leaders WHILE Iraq’s warring ethno-religious factions finished completely remaking Iraq’s demographic patterns, owing to tens-to-hundreds of thousands of dead and millions of exiled and internally displaced, WHILE the US turned the capital into a warren of barricades. The net result of all those changes has been a less obtrusively violent Iraq for the time being, and the whole arrangement is ‘The Surge’ in practice, but the cheerleaders talk as if it was all due to The Surge in pretense. Meanwhile Iraq’s ‘calm’ would count as calamity almost anywhere on earth but Darfur or Zimbabwe.
Very well said, young man.
Zimbabwe:
We are getting some decent news now, specifically that MDC Secretary Tendai Biti was released on bail pending his treason charge, and Mugabe is suggesting negotiations following the runoff election.
Honestly, I don’t see Mugabe backing down until he is dead or in custody though, particularly since he is insisting that the election, which he has turned into a bloody farce, should be held on schedule.
I’m not sure why Morgan Tsvangirai is walking away from his earlier call for armed peace keepers, but he is juxtaposing this with a 24-hour deadline to enter into good faith negotiations with him.
I think that Tsvangirai may be playing to Mugabe’s allies in the ZANU-PF, with comments to the effect that Mugabe is “self-destructing”.
The implication here is that if he does, then the rest of the ruling structure is at risk too.
It also appears that South Africa’s ANC has finally be forced into doing the right thing, as they are finally condemning what is going on there.
My guess is that Nelson Mandela’s calling the events in Zimbabwe a, “Tragic Failure of leadership”, left them no other choice.
Too Stupid for Silverware
New York Times Columnist Thomas L. Friedman is a complete pratt. Really….
That also helps explain why Iraqis initially never took ownership of their governing institutions, like the Coalition Provisional Authority, or C.P.A. They never fought for it. It was handed to them. People have to fight and win their own freedom, and that’s what gives their institutions legitimacy.
Anyone who does not understand that the CPA was a US institution, enforced at the barrel of a rifle by the US military, and answerable only to Bush and His Evil Minions™ is too stupid to cut his own meat.
So THIS is What it Means to Spread Democracy in Iraq
3 coalition soldiers were killed when they were fired upon by a member of the al-Madaen city council, a town about 40 klicks south of Baghdad.
Heck of a job there, Bushie….A member of the city council opening up with an AK on our troops.
U.S. Pins Car Boming on Sadr Groups
This assertion is highly suspect. The idea that Sadr’s Mahdi militia, a Shia militant group, and one which has no history of things like this, just bombed a market in a Shi’ite neighborhood…
I call bull sh@#.
Sistani Will Object to US-Iraq “Security Accord”
In which “Security Accord” means permanent bases:
Iraq’s most revered Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has strongly objected to a ‘security accord’ between the US and Iraq.
The Grand Ayatollah has reiterated that he would not allow Iraq to sign such a deal with “the US occupiers” as long as he was alive, a source close to Ayatollah Sistani said.
While this report is from a source that could best be described as partial, Iranian funded TV network, it jibes with reports that he has been quietly approving action against US and coalition forces.
As I’ve said before, I think that Sistani has been reticent, because he is concerned that occupying forces to do what the British did, put the Sunnis in charge, if the Shia are too strident, but that he believes that permanent bases cross a line.
According to this report, he said this to the Prime Minister in conversations, so if this leaked out, it came from Sistani’s camp, not Maliki.
Leader of the FARC is Dead
Obviously, this is a Ibig deal for Columbia, though it’s not clear how it will all shake out.
It appears that he died of natural causes.
Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani Issues Fatwah Allowing Armed Resistance Against US Troops
This is rather significant, and I agree with M. Duss his explicit approval of anti-US violance is being driven by the criticism he has invreasingly recieved about his silence regarding the brutality of American tactics.
Juan Cole goes rather deeper into what is going on, and notes that Sistani’s relative silence may very well be driven by the consequences of the Shiite uprising in 1920, which had the British putting Sunnis firmly in power as a proxies.
As noted here his Fatwas have seen very limited release, basically face to face with no real record of them otherwise.
If it gets more vocal, not only will US forces have to leave, but it will look like the evacuation of Saigon.