Category: Civil War

Our Man in Afghanistan

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Afghan President Hamid Karzai is attempting to seize control of the anti-corruption probes in Afghanistan (also here):

Obama administration officials fear that a move by Afghan President Hamid Karzai to assert control over U.S.-backed corruption investigations might provoke the biggest crisis in U.S.-Afghan relations since last year’s fraud-riddled election and could further threaten congressional approval of billions of dollars in pending aid.

I wonder why? It couldn’t be that anyone that he knows, or is close to him, is corrupt, could it?

For this puke, we lost 3 soldiers today.

Gunmen Wearing Military Uniforms, My Ass

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When gunmen in military uniforms stormed the the Sunni village of Albusaifi, and shot 24 people, you can be pretty sure that they were, in fact, soldiers.

One of the recurring themes during the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis from many parts of Baghdad was that the attackers were, “Dressed as security forces.”

This was not because these uniforms are floating around the street for anyone to pick up. It was because they were soldiers and police, and they were acting with the tacit approval of the Iraqi government.

The Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, knew what was going on, and approved of what was going on, which is why the ethnic cleansing went into high gear in 2006, following his ascension to the PM’s office.

Maliki has been implacably hostile to incorporating the Sunni “Sons of Iraq,” Sunni militiaman recruited to fight against Al Qaeda, into the state security apparatus, as promised, and has directed a program of harassment and arrest against them.

This is just the next step in this process.

It’s Like They are Trying to Demoralize the Democratic Base

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Because it looks like they are going to delay the Iraq withdrawal:

The U.S. military has prepared contingency plans to delay the planned withdrawal of all combat forces in Iraq, citing the prospects for political instability and increased violence as Iraqis hold national elections next month.

Under a deadline set by President Obama, all combat forces are slated to withdraw from Iraq by the end of August, and there remains heavy political pressure in Washington and Baghdad to stick to that schedule. But Army Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said Monday that he had briefed officials in Washington in the past week about possible contingency plans.

I understand that there need to be contingency plans, but the fact that this gets leaked to the Washington Posts means that they are looking to see if a delay is politically feasible for them to further extend Operation Useless Dirt 1.*

So in August, 3 months before the election, they are going to push back the withdrawal, and they expect the base to be enthused about working for the Democratic party.

The Obama administration is beginning to make the Carter administration look like Niccolò Machiavelli.

A few more months of this, and I might be ready to vote green.†

The equation here is very clear: Military operations are very good for careerist military officers, so you will always have a significant portion of the military arguing for these operations, since it benefits them personally.

You need to ignore them.

*H/t Eric Palmer for this bon mot describing Operation (insert name here).
†Not really, pulling the lever for the Greens would have vomiting in the voting booth.‡
‡But yes, actually vomiting in the voting booth might be a real possibility.

Marja Offensive Hits a Hitch

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At the core of General Stanley McChrystal’s tactics in winning meaningful and lasting control of the Marja province is the rapid and aggressive delivery of benefits to the civilian population.

This means things like roads, schools, doctors, farm aid, and jobs.

It’s a good idea, the problem is that the UN has just said that it will take no part in the provision of such aid in Marja province, and we can be relatively sure that the NGO’s will follow their lead:

Senior United Nations officials in Afghanistan on Wednesday criticized NATO forces for what one referred to as “the militarization of humanitarian aid,” and said United Nations agencies would not participate in the military’s reconstruction strategy in Marja as part of its current offensive there.

“We are not part of that process, we do not want to be part of it,” said Robert Watkins, the deputy special representative of the secretary general, at a news conference attended by other officials to announce the United Nations’ Humanitarian Action Plan for 2010. “We will not be part of that military strategy.”

The American commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, has made the rapid delivery of governmental services, including education, health care and job programs, a central part of his strategy in Marja, referring to plans to rapidly deploy what he has referred to as “a government in a box” once Marja is pacified.

………

“The distribution of aid by the military gives a very difficult impression to the communities and puts the lives of humanitarian workers at risk,” Mr. Watkins said.

While it’s standard at this point to make jokes about the impotence of the UN, this is a very real problem, particularly when the many of military reconstruction teams, “See their role as providing services in exchange for intelligence-gathering and political activity directed against the insurgents.”

If the UN and the NGOs do what McChrystal wants, they are painting big targets on the back of every aid worker in the country, and those aid workers don’t have flak jackets and weapons, and they are not trained in combat, nor should they be.

So, I guess it’s back to Halliburton and Blackwater Xe to deliver those services.

Another Failure of Obama’s Antiterror Policy

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They have captured the Taliban’s military chief and 2nd in command, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Karachi, Pakistan:

The Taliban’s top military commander was captured several days ago in Karachi, Pakistan, in a secret joint operation by Pakistani and American intelligence forces, according to American government officials.

The commander, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, is an Afghan described by American officials as the most significant Taliban figure to be detained since the American-led war in Afghanistan started more than eight years ago. He ranks second in influence only to Mullah Muhammad Omar, the Taliban’s founder and a close associate of Osama bin Laden before the Sept. 11 attacks.

(emphasis mine)

After 911, he was running around for about 6½ years under Bush. Obama got him after only a bit more than 1 year.

<tinfoil hat>I’m beginning to wonder if Bush and His Evil Minions™ made a political decision not to capture bin Laden because it kept people scared, and scared voters are Republican voters.</tinfoil hat>

Bush-Cheney Were Even Crazier Than We Imagined

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During the Russian-Georgian war in 2008, Bush and His Evil Minions™ considered military strikes against Russia:

As Russian tanks rumbled into Georgia in 2008, a post-Cold War turning point was at hand.

George W. Bush’s national security team considered launching air strikes to halt the invasion. …………

…………

Thus we learn that “several senior White House staffers” urged “at least some consideration of limited military options,” such as bombing the mountain tunnel that served as Russia’s main supply line.

What part of the phrase, “Russia has around 10,000 nuclear warheads in its arsenal,” didn’t these guys get?

Great googly moogly!

We Are Unbelievably Screwed

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It turns out that when General Stanley McChrystal was looking for filling in the dots on his Afghanistan escalation plan, he turned to the think tank Washington, DC, and created a “strategic assessment group”, among the members of that group, Fred Kagan and his wife, Kimberly Kagan.

If there is a bright shining center of intellect in the universe, anyone in the Kagan clan are located in a dank corner where people still believe that leeches cure cancer.

They are always wrong. All you need to look at is their history on Iraq, Saddam, and WMD.

On a more substantive note, this sort of lobbying, because when you look at the names on the group, they are largely idiots who are respected by the “very serious people” inside the Beltway, should be something that members of the military should not be doing.

The group was not about getting answers, it was not aboug evaluating potential options, it was about Beltway street cred.

Pushback on Supporting Karzai

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It’s beginning to look like Obama has a problem in Afghanistan.

On one side, he has the military, which is pushing for an escalation, because too many of the senior officers are too invested in their theories of irregular warfare, and have lost sight of the regional goal, and so are looking for “victory” (McChrystal, Petraeus).

On the other side, which also includes military personnel, you have people see the real goals of Afghanistan as simply insuring that al Qaeda does not create another safe-haven there, and this side includes much of the state department, most of our European allies, and now, it appears, Karl Eikenberry, the US ambassador to Afghanistan, who has sent memos saying that an escalation would make things worse.

Note that Eikenberry is a retired general, and he commanded US forces there in 2007 and 2007, but until now he has scrupulously avoided comment on the military end of things:

Although Eikenberry’s extensive military experience and previous command in Afghanistan were the key reasons Obama chose him for the top diplomatic job there, the former general had been reluctant as ambassador to weigh in on military issues. Some officials who favor an increase in troops said they were surprised by the last-minute nature of his strongly worded cables.

In these and other communications with Washington, Eikenberry has expressed deep reservations about Karzai’s erratic behavior and corruption within his government, said U.S. officials familiar with the cables. Since Karzai was officially declared reelected last week, U.S. diplomats have seen little sign that the Afghan president plans to address the problems they have raised repeatedly with him.

When I made comparisons to the mistakes made following the assassination of Diem in Vietnam, I had no idea that people who have Obama’s ear were of like mind.

Karzai is there because the US installed him, and could only gain legitimacy through the quality of his governance, hence he has no legitimacy in Afghanistan.

With all that is going on, and there are now official statements from the White House saying that, “Our commitment is not open-ended,” which implies people are starting to get a clue, and aren’t being hawkish because they think that it will help in 2012.

This is Not a Surprise

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It appears that the Taliban is in the process of severing its ties with al Qaeda:

Such positions may put Omar’s Taliban at odds with al-Qaeda’s extremist Sunni agenda of overthrowing what it sees as corrupt Muslim governments and targeting Shiites. Analysts said that Omar, who leads a council of Taliban commanders based in or around the Pakistani city of Quetta, wants such countries as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan to recognize the Taliban as a legitimate government if it regains power and that he has little interest in fomenting war elsewhere.

“We assure all countries that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, as a responsible force, will not extend its hand to cause jeopardy to others,” Omar said in a written statement in September.

The messages from the Taliban leadership since the spring amount to something of a “revolution,” said Wahid Mujda, a political analyst who was a Foreign Ministry official under the Taliban government. “Al-Qaeda’s path is now different from the Taliban’s path, and they are growing more separated.”

This ain’t a revolution.

Al Qaeda was never particularly popular in Afghanistan, where the people are, after all not Arabs, and they have about as much love for rich Arabs as we in the United States do.

Bin Laden was there because the Taliban wanted his money, not him.

When they were in control of Afghanistan, not only were they not fierce protectors of him, but they were trying to find a way for help the US make him dead in a way that gave them some plausible deniability.

The Problem is the ISI

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So, the Taliban has exploded another car bomb in Kabul.

The target was, here is a shocker, the Indian embassy.

One of the elephants in the room in that part of the world is that the ISI, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, like much of the military and intelligence establishment in that nation, viewed everything through the lens of an eventual all out war with India, and as such has aided, abetted, and directed the Taliban as a client organization.

I’m beginning to think that direct action against certain actors within the ISI might well be warranted…I’m suggesting snatch and grabs, not a Hellfire strike at their headquarters in Islamabad.

Afghanistan Data Point

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There are now more Americans fighting in Afghanistan than the Soviets ever had in country.

There are now 120K soldiers and contractors there, as opposed to 115K by the Soviets at the peak of their war.

While you may not want to count all the contractors as “Americans fighting,” you also want to count the soldiers from the UK, Canada, Germany, France, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Australia, Romania, Poland, Estonia, Norway, Czech Republic, Latvia, Hungary, Portugal, South Korea, Sweden, Turkey, Belgium, Finland, and Lithuania.

This is a damn mess.

Laurent Nkunda Captured by Rwandan Army

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His arrest, see also here, comes as a bit of the surprise, as he was always close to the Rwandan army, and his pursuit of the remnants of the genocidal Hutu Interahamwe militias were certainly in agreement with the Rwandan government.

It appears that this might be some sort of quid quo pro, with Congo allowing Rwanda to send in troops to take out the Hutu militias in exchange for neutralizing Nkunda.

Gaza Update

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The here lede is that Israel is calling up reservists, and armored units are massing on the border.

I would assume that infantry units are massing as well, as sending unsupported armor into an urban combat situation is suicidally stupid.

In terms of tactics and technoligy (I really wish that the War Nerd were not on vacation), we have a report that IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi demanded a clear exit strategy during the planning of this action.

It shows that he’s rather a bit more together than the flyboy who screwed up in Lebanon in 2006.

It also appears that Israel navy is heavily involved too, though it’s unclear if they are shelling, enforcing a blockade, or using the ships as bases for UAV flights. (My guess would be all three)

We are also getting some reports on the use of sophisticated multi-spectral sensors to locate targets. (The top image is post strike imagery of an underground missile launch site, the bottom image is pre-strike imagery of a Hamas military post)

We also have a “News” story from Haaretz making rather a big deal of the fact that this operation has been actively planned for months:

Sources in the defense establishment said Defense Minister Ehud Barak instructed the Israel Defense Forces to prepare for the operation over six months ago, even as Israel was beginning to negotiate a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. According to the sources, Barak maintained that although the lull would allow Hamas to prepare for a showdown with Israel, the Israeli army needed time to prepare, as well.

It’s not really news. It’s the job of the military to plan for contingencies, and to keep their mouth shut about it.

It would be news if the Defense minister and the Chief of Staff weren’t planning for a breakdown in negotiations. It’s their job.

Politically, it appears that the Israeli right wing is seeing the immediate benefit of combat operations, with Israel Beiteinu, which advocates redrawing the borders of Israel so that predominantly Arab areas of Israel are included in a Palestinian entity (I call it ethnic cleansing, but you are moving lines, not people so pedants may disagree), picking up support.

I imagine that the same thing is happening on the Palestinian side.

Finally, as to the report in the comments (BTW, go to the commenter’s blog, it’s cool) that Israel sent SMS warnings to warn civilians living near Gaza that they needed to get out and keep their heads down, I now have two links, one from bazonline.ch (Google translation that reads a bit like a Salvadore Dali paintint) and one from The Forward, though the latter says that it’s voice mails:

Late Saturday, thousands of Gazans received Arabic-language voice mails on their cell phones from the Israel Defense Forces, urging them to leave homes where militants might have stashed weapons.

While identifying the appropriate recipients of message is involved, it’s by no means impossible, particularly when the basic directory information should be available to Israeli telcos.

Note that this sort of action has been policy, and documented by independent sources going back to the 1948 war for independence.

One of the things in the coverage that has surprised me is that Guardian Columnist Seth Freedman has come down fairly hard on Hamas.

I reviewed his articles, and his beat seems to be largely Israel, Palestine, and the NGOs therein, and he generally hews fairly close to the Guardian editorial line, which has been unsympathetic to Israel for about 30 years.

Gaza

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OK, Israel has launched a large air strike on Gaza, see here, here, and here, with total reported casualties somewhere in the 225 range.

As to what the eventual death toll will be, FAIR’s report on Jenin noted that similar numbers were initially counted there, but it turned out to be 52, and the original estimates at deaths on 911 were over 6,000, when the final tally was 2974, so the final number is likely to be much lower.

Note that is not meant to minimize what happened, but to note that people who are going to simply spew what are very preliminary numbers by and imply that this constitutes reasoned arguments are ninnies.

I tend to be more hawkish on these things than my other political leanings would indicate, so here is my assessment at this point.

I do not think that this, whether or not it is followed by a ground assault, will solve anything in the long term, but it will have the effect of disrupting the chain of command of Hamas, particularly as the leadership of the organization is likely to go to ground at this point, as they have when similar strikes have been launched against them.

It does not buy peace, but it will buy somewhere between 6 and 18 months of quiet.

I disagree with the rather simplistic assessment at Worldwide War Pigs of, “Don’t like getting bombed? Clean up your act,” particularly when he invokes the rather awful Sly Stallone movie Cobra in the process.

Nothing good ever comes from evoking Sylvester Stallone, and there is no purely military solution.

By the same token, I think that Jeremy Ben-Ami, Executive Director of J-Street is wrong too, where he makes rather mealy-mouthed statements about, “Respecting Israel’s right to defend itself,” but at it’s core is the argument that this will contribute to the, “cycle of violence”, which is such a useless cliche that it borders on the moronic.

Further I disagree with Mr. Ben-Ami’s assertion that, “strong diplomatic intervention by the United States, the Quartet and allies in the region to negotiate a resumption of the ceasefire,” is essential.

The Quartet has been part of the problem, as it has distracted the principals, Israel, the PA, and Hamas, away from dealing with each other, and toward gaming their position vis-a-vis support from the 4 nations. It has taken negotiation, and made it theater.

I believe that the stage given to all parties by the Quartet serves no one except the members of the Quartet, who are allowed to pretend that they are doing something positive.

At this point, the best course is for the rest of the world disentangle themselves from this situation.

As to final status negotiations, I do not believe that Israel can achieve its goals purely through military force, and I do not believe that the Palestinians, either Hamas or the PA are currently able to negotiate in good faith, as any serious good faith negotiations would result in compromises that would delegitimatize whoever made them.

I would also note the lesson of the American Civil War, where ambiguities that were “left for later”, became the basis for conflict. Incrementalism is the enemy of a solution, not a friend.

When the Other Guy is About to Overrun Half Your Country, Don’t Screw Around

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That seems to be basic common sense, but it appears that the government of the Democrat Republic of Congo don’t understand this.

It appears that talks between the government and the National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP) led by General Laurent Nkunda have broken down because they want to bring in other militias….You know, the ones that aren’t on a path to seizing half the country, because they do not have their act together:

The Democratic Republic of Congo government at the weekend invited around 20 other armed groups to participate in the talks, aimed at ending fighting in North Kivu province that has displaced a quarter of a million people since August.

The CNDP and the government of Congo are the only players here, and adding 20 people to the table is intended to simply diminish the CNDP.

Um….Hello? You need to get a clue: The CNDP is kicking the ass of your sorry excuse for the army, and can seize much of the region in a few weeks.

I would note that one of the 20 other groups invited is the genocidal Huto FDLR militia, who are the proximate cause of all this, because when they aren’t trying to kill Tutsi women and children in Rwanda, they are trying to kill Tutsi women and children in eastern Congo, though the governments of Congo and Rwanda have agreed to disband the militia.

Look for a Blowup in Mosul

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It appears that Nouri al Maliki is looking at enforcing his Shia vision of Iraq on the city of Mosul, and the Kurds living there are not amused:

The Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki is squeezing out Kurdish units of the Iraqi Army from Mosul, sending the national police and army from Baghdad and trying to forge alliances with Sunni Arab hard-liners in the province, who have deep-seated feuds with the Kurdistan Regional Government led by Massoud Barzani.

It looks like the US military will take no actions if a conflict breaks out.

Iraq, the gift that just keeps giving.

US Stages Cross Border Raid into Syria

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We have reports the US launched a commando raid into Syria, and U.S. officials have confirmed the matter.

It appears that somewhere around 8 people were killed. It appears that the target was, Abu Ghadiya who was described as, “Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia’s “most prominent” smuggler of foreign operatives,” by US sources.

Needless to say, Syria and Iran have condemned the attack.

The analysis here seems to be that the Bush administration is doing this for two reasons, to coerce more action by the local governments against such people, and to establish a precedent for the next president to follow.

What I would worry about is someone like Cuba deciding that this precedent applying to the, and bullets flying in Miami as a result.

The Truth About the Surge: It’s Ethinc Cleansing

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A study of satellite imagery, finding vacant houses by the absence of lights noted that ethnic cleansing was essentially complete by the time that the surge began, and is in fact a major reason for the reduction of ethnic violence. (see here and here)

“Our findings suggest that the surge has had no observable effect, except insofar as it has helped to provide a seal of approval for a process of ethno-sectarian neighborhood homogenization that is now largely achieved,” Agnew’s team wrote in their report.

(emphasis mine)

Heck of a surge, Davie.