Category: Currency

Economics Update (a Day Late) (Again!)

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Ambac share prices

MBIA Share price

We are Unbelievably Screwed, H/t The Big Picture


Job Turnaround? Perhaps the End of the Beginning, but Not the Beginning of the End

For a bit of Auld Lang Syne, let’s start with an update on the monoliner insurers…I’ve posted on them just once since May.

Ambac’s share price is collapsing on reports that it will file for bankruptcy, and MBIA posted a $728 million loss, which comes to about $3.50/share, and the shares are trading at about $3.69 right now….ouch.

The monoliner business model is that you create a company, get an AAA rating, and then make money by renting out that credit rating.

Among other things, it’s a way to soften the blow of the comparatively low credit ratings that states and municipalities get, and it allows for another revenue stream for the parasites on Wall Street to tap.

I think think that the entire business is essentially corrupt, and should be outlawed.

In any case, we do have news that might be a cause for optimism, with China’s industrial output and retail sales grew sharply in October, and the US Department of Labor’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey rose slightly in both September and October.

On the down side are the continued fall in retail sales (see 3rd chart down), and the vacancy rate in housing is at a 44-year high.

The recent news does not seem to have effected the price of Treasurys, though which were basically flat.

In energy, we have weather, specifically the fact that Ida was pretty weak by the time that it hit oil producing areas, driving oil down, and China’s gangbuster economic report drove the US dollar down.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

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It’s not just bankruptcies in the US that are on the rise. Personal insolvencies in the UK just rose to a new record.

In the US, Advanta filed for bankruptcy, which may seem like a minor thing, except for the fact that they were a huge player in small business credit cards, or rather, they were until they shut that down because of excessive defaults in May.

In energy, oil rose, largely on concerns about the potential effects of Tropical Storm Ida, and in currency, the IMF is suggesting that the Dollar has a way to go, so the dollar went down.

Economics Update

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Perspective from the Wall Street Journal:
Falling Hours & Wages Drove Productivity Numbers Up


Long Term Unemployment


Unemployment vs. the Stress Tests, H/T Calculated Risk


Employment:Population Ratio, H/t Calculated Risk


Average Weekly Hours, h/t The Big Picture

Well, I already mentioned that unemployment (U3) broke 10%, with non-farm payrolls falling by 190,000, (better than September), so the next thing is the productivity number, where, “Non-farm business sector labor productivity increased at a 9.5 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2009.” OMFG, that is a huge number.

Normally, this would be good news, but soaring productivity means fewer workers needed for a task, so in the short term it would tend to stall any recovery in the labor markets.

On the brighter side, we are now getting reports that hiring of temporary workers are increasing, which might presage a more general hiring increase, as temps tend to be hired earlier, because they are easier to get rid of.

On the other hand, US consumer credit fell for the 8th straight month in September, which indicates that the consumer is continuing to deleverage an pay down their debts.

It appears that wholesalers are deleveraging too, as wholesale inventories fell in September, though less than anticipated, and retail sales did rise, but inventories are at an all time low, 1.18 months.

In any case, the unemployment numbers drove a flight to safety, which drove Treasuries up, and their yields down.

This flight to safety has also drive both the dollar and the Yen up, while concerns about recovery has driven oil down.

Economics Update

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The Defendants in the Galleon Case….So Far
Click for PDF from SEC


H/t The Bondad Blog

It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless were better than forecast, 512,000, down from a revised 532,000 the prior week, comparing the initial numbers from last week, it’s 512K from 530K, a still quite impressive 18,000 drop.

The 4 week moving average fell 3000, to 523,750, and the continuing claims fell to 5,749,000, down 68,000 from last week’s number 5,817,000, though the initial figure there was 5,797,000m which is a 48K drop.

We are still seeing repercussions of the the Fed’s extended zero rate interest in energy and currency, with people worrying that the run up in commodities may be coming to an end, which pushed the dollar and Yen up, and oil down.

Economics Update

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The Misery Index Continues to Rise
H/t My Budget 360

Today will be a slow news day, because everyone is waiting on the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) statement tomorrow afternoon.

I think that the big news is that Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway has bought the Burlington Northern-Santa Fe Railroad, betting on recovery while further reducing his stake in Moody’s Investors Service.

Warren Buffet does not invest in things that he cannot get his head around, which is why he missed the dot com implosion, he couldn’t figure out how they could make money.

So now, he is dumping a financial company for rail, which implies to me that he sees a lot more trouble ahead for the banking industry, even as the economy recovers, and the demand for goods and services increases.

This is further reinforced by the September new factory orders rising by 0.9%.

Also the numbers for automobile sales were remarkably good, considering the “cash for clunkers” sales hangover.

There was strong sales growth for and strong October sales numbers from Ford, GM, Nissan, Hyundai and Kia, while sales for Toyota and Honda were basically flat.


Bummer of a birth mark, Chrysler

As for Chrysler, well…..”Bummer of a birthmark, Hal.

BTW, if you’ve been reading the financial press, you may not that they are touting a 4.4% increase in the MIT Center for Real Estate’s transaction-based index (TBI) index for the 3rd quarter.

One should note, as Calculated Risk does, that this is not the But this isn’t the monthly Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI), which actually showed a drop.

This is an index of, “commercial properties sold by major institutional investors,” and these institutional investors are likely avoiding the distressed properties like the plague.

It should be noted that things are still bad, with business bankruptcy filings rising 7% in October, a change from the drops in filings in August and September.

Gold surges to an all-time high – Nov. 3, 2009: “

Here’s a bonus for the gold bugs, gold hit a new high, $1,084.90/oz (troy) after the Reserve Bank of India announced that it was bought 200 metric tonnes of gold from the IMF. (What’s up with this? Really, I have no clue.)

In energy and currency, both oil and the dollar rose today.

Economics Update

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Commercial Real Estate Delinquencies
$ billion


Percentage
CRE Data H/t Realpoint (PDF) and FT Alphaville


ISM Employment Index v BLS Manufacturing Employment H/t Calculated Risk


Construction Spending

Yeah, we are in some sort of recovery, though I still think that the underlying problems, particularly as pertain to finance and real estate, have not been addressed.

The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing index rose to 55.7 in October, up from September’s 52.6 and its Manufacturing Employment index rose to 53.1, the first time that this index has broken 50, showing expansion, since April 2006.

On the other side of the Pacific, we have Chinese manufacturing growing for the 8th straight month.

Real estate news appears to be improving too, with construction spending rising in September, and the NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index rising for the 8th month in a row.

This news has had the anticipated effects in currency and energy, with the dollar falling on an increased risk appetite, and oil rising in expectation of increased demand.

Economics Update

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Employment Chart H/t Calculated Risk

Home Vacancy, Home Ownership Rates, and Rental Vacancy Rates Also Courtesy of Calculated Risk


Some Improvement on Homeowner Vacancy Rates


Note that the Rental Vacancy Rate is an All Time High

Thursday is the new jobless day, and new unemployment claims were basically flat, falling from 531,000 initial claims to 530,000. The 4 week moving average, a generally better metric, was down to 526,250, from the previous week’s 532,250, and continuing claims fell to 5,797,000 down 148,000 from last week’s 5,945,000.

All in all, generally good news.

Additionally, US GDP increased at a 3.5% annual rate in the 3rd, which is a solid, though not stellar, growth rate.

By way of example, the recovery in the early 1980s was around 7% for a full year.

There is also the question about how much of this was driven by cash for clunkers driven auto sales, and the first time home buyer’s tax credit.

The former has expired, and the is due to expire, though I would only give it a 1:2 chance that Congress won’t renew it.

In any case, the 30-year fixed mortgage was basically flat this week.

The market’s reaction to the GDP news was as expected.

There was movement from safety to higher rates of return, which drove US Treasuries down, and their yields up, and the Dollar fell.

Anticipation of a recovery also drove oil higher, to back above $80/bbl.

Economics Update

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Remember yesterday, when I said that consumer confidence fell? Well, that was the Conference Board. According to Nielsen, U.S. consumer confidence is up for the first time since 2007, as well as most of the rest of the world.

I think that both organizations conduct reputable surveys, but they got different answers because they asked different questions. This is something that one should consider for any survey.

In the world of slightly more objective metrics, we have durable goods orders rising for the 4th time in 6 months, which is good news, but New home sales unexpectedly fell.

I’m not sure why new home sales falling was “unexpected”. They are recorded when the contract is made, and not when they close, whereas existing home sales are recorded at closing, which means that people who had not bought new homes by the end of August, were really pushing it to qualify for the first time buyer tax credit, which require that the deal be closed by the end of November.

The end of the tax credit is why mortgage applications fell, even though rates fell.

In fact the divergence between new and existing home sales (more later) is a real indicator of how much that tax credit is goosing things.

In the world of central banks, the Norwegian central bank raised its benchmark rate, but the New Zealand bank kept its rate steady.

Of course, there is some apples and oranges here, because Norway raised its rate to 1.5%, and the Kiwis kept their rate steady at 2.5%.

In either case, the markets are not being optimistic, with oil falling below $78/bbl, and the dollar and yen strengthening on a flight to safety.

Economics Update

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Chicago Fed Index Chart Pr0n H/t Calculated Risk


Your Moment of Zen

We have some dueling indices today, with the ATA Truck Tonnage Index falling, and the Chicago Fed reporting that its Midwest Manufacturing Index rose in September to levels approaching where they were prior to the recession.

Overseas, we have the Bank of Israel leaving its benchmark rate at .75%, German consumer confidence falling, and the South Korean economy growing at its fastest pace in 7 years, so it’s more mixed signals.

We are seeing an increased risk appetite among investors, which has driven treasuries lower, and pushed their yields up, though a statement by an official in the Chinese central bank that China should diversify its currency holdings, may have been a factor too.

In real estate, home prices in California fell by 7.3% from a year ago, largely on increased foreclosure sales.

In energy, oil fell again, and the dollar rose from this year’s lows, which would indicate a reduction in risk appetite, which is kind of counter to the results with the US treasuries above.

Finally, watch the video, it’s funny, in an, “I don’t know whether to laugh or cry,” way, and one note to the non-Brits, “Freddy” is Sir Fred Goodwin of the £ multimillion pension.

Economics Update

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Unemployment by State, h/t Calculated Risk


Architectural Billings Index, h/t Calculated Risk

Permanent Layoffs, h/t macroblog, which led Calculated risk to note that that it’s not a jobless recovery, it’s a “job-loss” recovery

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a collection of “anecdotal” data (it’s really more than “anecdotal”, but you know economists) about the economy, was released today, and it shows that the economy is stabilizing, with that data showing either flat, or slight upticks, in economic activity.

We also got the state by state unemployment report for September, and it is ugly. (see bottom pic)

In real estate, mortgage applications fell sharply on higher rates, and the Architectural Billings Index rose, but remained below 50, indicating further contraction in nonresidential construction

The news in the Far East was pretty good though, with the decline in Japanese exports slowing to a 10-month best, and China’s GDP growing by 8.9% year over year, though Chinese statistics are always somewhat suspect.

In energy, oil rose to a 1-year high, $81.37/bbl, and the dollar weakened to a 14 month low, hitting $1.5014:€1.0000, so the buck and a half barrier is broken again.

Economics Update

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Housing Start Graph Pr0n Courtesy of Calculated Risk


Foreclosure/Default Graph Pr0n Courtesy of The Big Picture

We are still not seeing any signs of inflation, with wholesale prices falling 0.6$ in September, largely on falling energy costs, so this is unlikely to repeat this month.

Also, the G20 country in the best fiscal position right now is Canada, and the Bank of Canada is keeping its benchmark rate at 0.25%, so it is declining to follow Australia’s lead.

In real estate, housing rose to 590,000, which was below expectations, and applications for housing permits fell.

In energy, the eight-day long rally has ended after briefly being about $80/bbl, though it’s likely just some profit taking.

8 Days is a long time in the commodities market.

Meanwhile, the dollar is up, largely on strong statements from various European central bankers and politicians about how they support a strong dollar.

Economics Update

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Commercial Real Estate Prices


Home Builder Confidence Graph Pron Courtesy Calculated Risk

Ummm…If you think that the real estate implosion is done, then you haven’t been following commercial real estate (CRE), where prices fell 3% in August, about a 42% annual rate,* though the year over year decline was “just” 32%, and it’s down 41% from its peak in 2007.

Remember, commercial mortgages typically come due after 5 years, so we are going to see a lot of folks defaulting on CRE mortgages as their time comes up, because they will be under water.

It’s no wonder that the National Association of Home Builders’ Confidence Index has fallen, particularly when juxtaposed with the expiration of the let’s reinflate the bubble first time home buyer’s tax credit at the end of November.

Note that to qualify for the credit, you must close before November 30, which means that if you buy now, you are starting to cut it close.

Still investors seem to be sanguine about economic prospects, as they are pulling out of US Treasuries and the dollar while crude oil hit a 1-year high.

*The joys of compound interest. 3% a month over 12 months is not 36%, it’s 1.0312=1.42=42%.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

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H/T Calculated Risk for the Graph Pr0n


Yeah, CR again, this time LA Port Traffic

Notwithstanding green shoots, it still appears that consumers, who account for 70% of GDP,* remain pessimistic, with the Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 69.4, down from August’s 73.5, and well below the forecast that the number would be flat.

On the other hand, industrial production rose 0.7% in September, and capacity utilization (see top graph) rose to 70.5%.

You also have a secondary indicator of the economy, port traffic for the LA/Long Beach ports continues to fall.

Additionally, the banks who actually do make loans to real people, as opposed to the Wall Street parasites, are not doing well, with Bank of America posting a loss, and credit card delinquencies are rising.

Wall Street may be doing fine, but main street is still being hammered.

Meanwhile, in energy, the industrial production numbers drove oil to a 12-month high, and the US dollar recovered a bit, though it is still down for the week

*Or maybe not, see here.

Economics Update

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Retail Sales, Courtesy Calculated Risk


DJIA Since Late 1998

As much as I think that the crossing of arbitrary numbers is bullsh#@, and I think that covering the daily swings of the market is bullsh#@, and I think that the Dow Jones is perhaps an even bigger load of bullsh#@, the fact that the DJIA topped 10,000 today is the obvious lede in today’s economics news.

The Dow closed at 10015.86, the highest number in over a year.

It should also be noted this makes the return on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 10 years roughly 0%.

I still think that this is a dead cat bounce, fueled largely by the Federal Reserve printing money and laundering it into the stock market through the banks.

It appears that the Federal Reserve is similarly dubious about the meaning of the recent rally, as the newly released FOMC Minutes make notes about “Considerable Uncertainty” about the strength of the recovery, once the stimulus package wraps up.

When one looks at things like falling retail sales in September with the expiration of “cash for clunkers”, (though the number did beat expectations) and US business inventories falling in August, there is little sign that all this money doing anything but creating an equities bubble.

In real estate, we are seeing mortgage applications fall again as rates for the 30 year fixed mortgage head back above 5%.

The energy and currency markets are ecstatic about breaking the 10K barrier, which drove oil above $75/bbl for the first time in almost exactly a year, and because people are optimistic, and hence no longer looking for a safe haven, the Dollar weakened to $1.4924:€1.0000, the lowest number in 14 months.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

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Foreclosures hitting high end homes


Hotel Pulse Index


Baltic Dry Index, a Measure of Shipping Demand, Courtesy Barry Ritholtz

You know, there are very few guaranteed money makers, but one is owning baseball club, and the Chicago Cubs have just filed for bankruptcy, which says something about the state of the economy.

I know that this is really an artifact of Sam Zell’s completely idiotic business model, which seemed to be:

  1. Collect Underpants
  2. ?
  3. Profit

Except, of course, Zell was collecting short term loans, rather than underpants.

Of course, it’s not only big debtors like Zell who are getting into trouble. You are seeing foreclosures increasing among more expensive homes, which gives the lie to the constant refrain from many in the right wing that it’s all the fault of those n*gg*rs irresponsible borrowers.

It’s going to get worse, and it’s likely to create another crisis if Wells-Fargo’s numbers on Option ARMs carry across the industry, which are unbelievably grim:

“Several of our investors have questioned the current loss severity in light of negative amortization and home price decline,” researchers wrote in the report. “Our analysis suggests that option ARM loss severity will likely range between 60% and 70% provided home prices have stabilized.”

So 60+% of the option ARM are expected to go bad, even if house prices are not falling any further.

We are also seeing a continued drop in hotel activity, which implies that both consumer and corporate travel remain moribund.

The bottom piece of chart pr0n is the Baltic Dry Index, basically an index of shipping costs, though it is also a very good proxy for shipping demand, and this appears to indicate that the need for shipping, and hence the level of international trade, is still well off.

We are some seeing some interesting activity in US Treasuries now, with bonds rising, and their yields thus falling, on the expectation that the Fed will print more money and that inflation will remain low, but Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are also showing signs of expanded demand, which implies that at least part of the bond market is betting on increased inflation in the relatively near term.

We have some good news, in that the recession appears to be well and truly over…..In New Zealand, with retail sales jumping there.

This would explain why both the $NZ and the $Aus rose significantly yesterday….Well, that and the fact Australia’s central bank raised rates last week.

The US dollar was otherwise mixed, weaker vs. the Euro, but up vs. the Pound Sterling and Yen.

Oil rose yesterday too, as a result of a combination of cold weather in the US and optimism about the economy.

What’s the Difference Between a Trend and a Media Fad?

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Change in Reserves

Truth be told, I don’t know, but this article from Bloomberg is about the 5th or 6th article that I’ve seen this week, so either a tiptoe toward the exits is beginning, or the press is going all herd mentality on the rest of us:

Central banks flush with record reserves are increasingly snubbing dollars in favor of euros and yen, further pressuring the greenback after its biggest two- quarter rout in almost two decades.

Policy makers boosted foreign currency holdings by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nations reporting currency breakdowns put 63 percent of the new cash into euros and yen in April, May and June, the latest Barclays Capital data show. That’s the highest percentage in any quarter with more than an $80 billion increase.

I honestly don’t know which one it is, though I kind of hope for a falling dollar, since many of the inefficiencies in our economy are due to an excessively high dollar, which both creates large trade deficits and harms domestic production, and serves to prop up Wall Street and enable it to seize a greater proportion of our economy.

(On edit, added chart pr0n)

Conspiracy Theories Abond on US Dollar

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We are now getting reports that, “Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France are planning to start trading oil using a basket of currencies,” rather than the US dollar, over the next decade.

The source is The Independent, which has a pretty good reputation as a newspaper, even if it publishes in tabloid (excuse me, “compact”), and it is cast as one involving much in the way of cloak and dagger secrecy, which is a bit much.

Additionally, they cast the invasion of Iraq as being driven by Saddam Hussein’s decision to Euro denominate his oil sales driving the invasion of Iraq, when this is clearly not the case.

There are any number of reasons for such a discussion to take place, most notably greater stability in oil prices for the rest of the world, though there might also be a desire to re-balance the unipolar world that allowed the United States to invade Iraq with impunity in the first place.

Economics Update (Catching Up)

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Unemployment Claims, Courtesy Calculated Risk


Consumer Credit, Courtesy of EconomPic


Office Vacancies, Courtesy Calculated Risk


Office Investment, Courtesy Calculated Risk


Strip Mall Vacancies, Courtesy Calculated Risk

So, we have some news on the unemployment front, with new unemployment claims falling to 521,000, a 33,000 drop, with the 4 week moving average falling 9K to 539,750, and continuing claims falling by 72K to 6.04 million.

We also have some good news from Australia has become the first G-20 central bank to raise its benchmark rate, by 25 basis points (¼%) to 3.25%.

My guess is that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) is premature in this action, as is generally the case with first movers coming out of a recession, but it means that the next central bank will likely be correct, or at least less wrong, as the second movers, such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, who both kept their rates unchanged, generally are in such things.

Still, 3¼% is pretty damn low by historical standards.

It could be that Australia’s rate hike may force other central banks’ hands though, as their rate increase appears to have pushed prices down, and yields up, on US Treasuries.

We also saw retail sales rising for the first time in over a year in September, and the Institute for Supply Management has released its Non Manufacturing Index, which rose to 40.9, up from 48.4 in August, and the first time that it has been above 50, meaning expansion, as opposed to that whole 2nd derivative is positive thing, for the first time in 11 months.

So, it appears that there is some sort of recovery in the works, assuming that something else bad does not happen, like US apartment vacancy rates hitting a 23-year high and rents falling, consumer credit continuing to contract, CRE taking a hit as office vacancies go up as rents go down, along with strip mall vacancies hitting a 17 year high, and wholesale inventories falling in August.

Much of what worries me is real estate, though it has to be said that mortgage applications have risen as the rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage has fallen to 4.87%(!).

It does appear that the good economic news, along with the Australian rate hike, has had an impact on currencies and energy, with oil rising above $71/bbl, and the dollar falling on both an increased risk appetite, and downward pressure from the Aussie rate hike.

As to how much is optimism, and how much is the rate hike, the fact that gold hit a new high, and gold is typically seen as a hedge against uncertainty leaves me inclined to lean toward the pessimistic view, but then again I always lean toward the pessimistic view.

Economics Update

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Well, notwithstanding the “green shoots” that every fool (Ben Bernanke) is crowing about Consumer Confidence fell to 53.1 in September, down from 54.5 (revised) in August, and well below the predicted 57.0.

While this may not effect spending for the Christmas holiday, it does look like it’s putting a crimp in Halloween spending, with consumers planning to spend about 20% less this year.

Of course, we are still seeing some good news, such as the Case-Shiller home price index rising for the 3rd straight month, but, as Barry Ritholtz notes, it’s still down 13.3% for the year.

I would also add, that these are seasonally adjusted numbers, which really make no sense when a market is as out of whack as this one is, it’s YoY that gives meaningful data.

We also have the Chicago Fed’s National Activity index falling in September, to -.90, from August’s -0.54, indicating further contraction.

Overseas, we are seeing more good news though, with consumer confidence in Germany increasing to a 16 month high, and the Brazilian central bank being confident enough that it is starting to clamp back down on credit, which means that they are worried about inflation.

One hopes that the Brazilian bankers are not jumping the gun here.

In insurance, we have a bit of nostalgia, with the monoliner insurers popping up their head again, as S&P cut both MBIA, Inc. and MBIA Insurance credit ratings, to BB-minus and BB-Plus respectively.

Both ratings are below investment grade. (i.e. junk)

In energy, it looks like the consumer confidence numbers have driven oil prices down, to $66.71/bbl, and it looks like natural gas prices are about to fall off a cliff, because the salt domes, depleted oil fields, and aquifers used to story the fuel have reached capacity, meaning that anything pumped has to be sold, and delivered as soon as it leaves the ground.

Gasoline prices are continuing their fall too.

Meanwhile, the dollar is up, largely on increased worries about the economy, though the rate cut by Russia’s central bank has also made the USD more attractive to investors.

Economics Update

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Blah, blah, blah!

Well, let’s lead with housing sales, since it gives me an opportunity to start with one of my pet peeves: Journalists pumping up news as better than it is.

CNN leads with New home sales rise for 5th straight month in August,which sounds good, sales went from a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 429K, up from July’s 426K, so what’s the problem?

Well the problem is that the forecast was for 440K, and a 3K gain is about ¾%, nothing to phone home about, and as Calculated Risk so ably notes when he looks at the numbers and declares that sales were flat, “This is a slight increase from the revised rate of 426 thousand in July (revised from 433 thousand).” (emphasis mine)

So there was an increase relative to the revised figure, but a drop when compare initial figure to initial figure, and in any case, an honest description for this would be “flat”, or “down slightly”, not a hed screaming a 5th straight month of increase.

In either case, we are still seeing week demand for manufactured goods, as evidenced by the 2.4% drop in durable goods orders, though the Truck Tonnage Index rose in in August, which compares to the drop in rail traffic I reported 2 days ago.

In the world of finance, banks losses in big mofo loans, the so-called syndicated loans, tripled in 2009.

In energy, revelations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions pushed oil up, though it is still well below $70/bbl, and in currency, the dollar fell broadly, hitting a 7½ month low vs the Yen, and remaining near the 1-year low vs the Euro that it hit a few days ago.