Category: Defense Procurement

McCain Gets Punk’d

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McCain decided to to take a shot at Obama regarding the escalating cost of the new Presidential helicopter, the VH-71, which has suffered massive cost overruns (as a result of Bush and His Evil Minions™ gold plating the mofo):

Said the president’s former Republican rival, “Well, thank you, Mr. President. And thank you for doing this…Just one area that I wanted to mention that I think consumed a lot of our conversation on procurement, it was the issue of cost overruns in the Defense Department. We all know how large the defense budget is.”

And, McCain noted, “your helicopter is now going to cost as much as Air Force One. I don’t think that there’s any more graphic demonstration of how good ideas have — have cost taxpayers an enormous amount of money.”

Meow…..That’s a slam, right?

Not so much:

Said Obama, “I’ve already talked to (Defense Secretary Robert) Gates about a thorough review of the helicopter situation.”

Added the president, to laughter, “the helicopter I have now seems perfectly adequate to me. Of course, I’ve never had a helicopter before. So, you know, maybe — maybe I’ve been deprived and I didn’t know it.But I think it is a — it is an — an example of the procurement process gone amuck, and — and we’re going to have to fix it.”

I think that he was expecting this from someone, and had just the response to make the accuser look small and petty.

White House Push-Back On Pentagon Insubordination

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Obama’s people are demanding that all Pentagon staffers working on the budget sign a non-disclosure agreement:

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In an undated non-disclosure agreement obtained by Defense News, the administration tells defense officials that “strict confidentiality” must be practiced to ensure a “successful” and “proper” 2010 defense budget process.

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The pledge covers any data about the 2010 budget, including: “planning, programming and budgeting system documents and databases, and any other information” that concerns the administration’s internal discussions about “the nature and amounts of the president’s budget for fiscal year 2010, and any supplemental budget request during the current fiscal year.”

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“Under no circumstances will I disclose such information outside the Department of Defense and other government agencies directly involved in the defense planning and resource-allocation process, such as the Office of Management and Budget,” the agreement said.

I’m not sure if this is just paranoia, a recognition that there are a lot of Bushies burrowed in the bureaucracy who will work against this, or a realization that the Pentagon is completely out of control as an organization.

Maybe it’s all three.

European Aerospace Aggressively Pursuing Indian LCA Program

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With its indigenous Kaveri engine repeatedly delayed, India is looking to foreign engines to power light combat aircraft (LCA), the Tejas, and Eurojet is pitching its EJ200 as a competitor to the GE F414, and they are promising some, “special sauce”, thrust vectoring.

Unspoken in this bid to power the diminutive delta is the concerns that the Indian government has regarding ITAR restrictions which could hamstring sales to other nations.

This is also what is driving India’s interest in procuring an AESA radar from EADS for an upgraded version of the fighter.

More F-22s Appear to Be Coming

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The reports appear to indicate that the USAF will get 60 More F-22s, at a price tag of around $800-900 billion, though it appears that it will remain firmly in the “not for export” category.

Won’t be much use for the military, and it’s really expensive, the the wild blue yonder types are ecstatic right now.

How about if instead of the planes, we just chip in and rent them a hooker?

That way the taxpayer won’t be quite so f%$#ed.

Gripen/JSF in the Netherlands Gets Odd

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So, Saab is talking about cutting its losses on the fighter competition in the Netherlands if they order two F-35 test aircraft in the next few months, which brings them into the JSF test program, which makes sense, the fix has been in for some time here, with Lockheed throwing too much business Dutch industry’s way for them to say no.

But wait, there’s more.

The Netherlands is demanding a firm fixed price for the F-35, which Lockheed Martin is simply unable to do….The aircraft is still (!) not mature enough, and we are seeing price ranges from $60m to $160 million from various sources and what is counted. (The last number is from Air Power Australia, and they really dislike the JSF[Update: the Israelis are saying $200 million, more than the F-22])

Saab, meanwhile, has given a firm fixed price offer which covers pretty much everything from soup to nuts of around $79 million.

I don’t think that Saab has the least chance of winning this, but this is definitely interesting.

Israel Balking at JSF Cost

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The flyaway cost has gone from $50-60 million to something closer to $100 million, and the IAF is beginning to wonder if it is worth it, particularly since the electronic warfare and avionics systems are going to be locked up tightly, preventing the Israelis from customizing the aircraft to their needs.

Note that this is flyaway costs, which is the lowest measure of cost, so these budget numbers, which are still in flux, are only going to get worse.

I would also note that down the road, countries that want to upgrade their JSFs are going to get done like a 3 dollar whore by Lockheed Martin.

Update: We have these comments from a Israeli Air Force (IAF) chief procurement officer Brigadier-General Ze’ev Sni giving a $200 million price tag.

Well, Here Is a Vote of Confidence

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The Indian Army is refusing to induct the BrahMos missile into service without further tests.

My guess here is that the army is concerned that the 5000 lb supersonic missile won’t work reliably.

Considering the most recent failure, and the generally spotty record of India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), I’d want some real testing to verify this too.

There is also an element of bureaucratic infighting too, as Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor was at that test, where he was told that it was a success, but he visited the target area, and saw that it was a miss, and then DRDO criticized him for telling the press that it was a failure.

Oops.

Maybe Because She Didn’t Want Someone Ratting Out Bath Iron Works

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It appears that one of the sticking points on the stimulus package was that Senator Susan Collins insisted on stripping whistleblower protections from contractors from the conference report.

Considering the history waste, fraud, and abuse at BIW, the largest private employer in the state, I could see how the distinguished gentlewoman from Maine might not favor transparency.

Baby Seal Gets More Expensive

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It appears that the F-35 cost overruns have already placed the program in Nunn-McCurdy breach in all but name, and a lot of the problem is that the program was poorly managed from the very beginning:

The Pentagon’s top weapons buyer says the huge cost increases and delays incurred on the F-35 joint strike fighter program were inevitable because the Defense Department didn’t spend enough money upfront to build realistic prototypes.

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For the JSF program, the Pentagon contracted with Boeing and Lockheed to build “technology demonstrators” and not “true prototypes.”

As a result, Young said, “the future of JSF cost growth was largely written in 2001 when budget and pricing decisions were made . . . based on inadequate knowledge gained from the JSF technology demonstrators.”

I’m so not shocked. In fact, I think that the DoD in general, and the USAF in particular do this on purpose to conceal the true cost of a program until it is too far along to cancel.

I’m beginning to think that the Pentagon needs to have its contracting authority pulled like the Coast Guard’s authority was late last year.

H/T Worldwide War Pigs

The Navy Still Doesn’t Know What it Wants

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So, the Navy is looking at a ‘future surface combatant’ (FSC) to replace the DDG-1000 Zumwalt.

It appears to be an improved version of the DDG-51 Arleigh Burke, with possibly a hull stretch and a new engineering plant, and definitely a new radar, the the Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR), which was originally intended to be first fielded on the nuclear powered CG(X) cruiser, which now looks to be pushed back a couple of years.

The idea that they are doing this to the DDG-51 implies that part of the problem with the Zumwalts was insufficient robustness to battle damage.

What is shows however, is that the Navy really does not have a coherent path forward.

What Are They Smoking?

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Russia and India now have an in-service date for their joint next generation fighter program, the PAK-FA, 2017.

This simply is not going to happen that soon, particularly when India is still unsatisfied with the level of technology transfer, and they haven’t yet agreed on the number of crew (Russia wants a single seater, India a 2-seater).

They may have a demonstrator, at a maturity level of the MiG MFI, or the BAE EAP in the next 5 years, but the former never saw production, and the successor to the latter the Typhoon, did enter service until more than a decade after it rolled out.

If this ever enters service, I’d my guess is that it would be closer to 2025 than 2017.

And the P-80 was 180 days from proposal to first flight……

More Adventures in the Incompetence of the Iron Triangle

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In this case, it’s the Marine Corps, who have found a disaster besides the EFV, the Growler, which is basically a stunted version of the Jeep Cherokee designed to fit in the cargo bay of the V-22 Osprey.

It’s supposed to serve for basic transportation, and to tow a trailer for a mortar.
As Paul McLeary notes, “Well take a look at the vehicle and tell me if you would want to tool around IED alley in Afghanistan in this thing.” (Emphasis Original)

In addition to being dangerously exposed in combat areas, it’s cost has skyrocketed:

The inspector general report said that the average cost of a single Growler has risen 120 percent, from about $94,000 when the contract was awarded in 2004 to $209,000 in 2008. The unit cost for the vehicle with mortar and ammunition trailer has grown 86 percent, from $579,000 to $1,078,000.

It turns out that part of this has been the Marines adding features, “air suspension … a new cooling system, power steering and power brakes, along with a beefed-up General Motors engine…,” of which only the air suspension would be considered crucial to the mission (it allows the vehicle to squat to fit in the Osprey).

Note that this contract was awarded in 2004, when it was clear that a thin skinned vehicle would not be acceptable in current conflicts.

Russian Defense Recapitalization Threatened by Financial Meltdown

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Vladimir Putin committed to major new spending on the Russian military. He has committed to 1 trillion rubles ($30.5 b) on new procurement, upgrades, and R&D.(paid subscription required)

Notwithstanding this spending, the Russian defense industry is still not in great shape, as commercial credit has largely dried up:

Putin met with industry leaders recently at Tactical Missile Corp. headquarters in Korolev, a Moscow suburb. The package unveiled by Putin includes the injection of 35 billion rubles in additional capitalization and the allocation of 100 billion rubles as a state guarantee on bank loans. Along with the loan guarantee, there is a further 15 billion rubles to compensate for high interest rates.

(emphasis mine)

Additionally, there is likely to be further rationalization (mergers and tighter integration) among manufacturers, as is evidenced by the continuing submergence of MiG in United Aircraft Corp. (UAC) with Sukhoi firmly in the lead.

In terms of likely purchases, the Russian air force is looking for upgraded Su-27s (SU-35 shown) in the near term, and the Indo-Russian PAK-FA in the long term.

Further Delays in Indian MMRCA Competition

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There is still no word on when when field trials will start for the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft fighter competition. (paid subscription required)

One of the issues that complicates this is mother nature: If the demonstrations do not finish by July, then they run into delays as a consequence of the monsoon season.

Current competitors for the medium fighter are the, “Boeing F/A-18, Lockheed Martin F-16, Eurofighter Typhoon, Mikoyan MiG-35, Saab Gripen, and Dassault Rafale.”

It’s intended to replace their fleets of older model MiG-21s, which are at end of life.

My guess would be the the MiG-35 has the inside track, the Indian AF already has operational experience with the MiG-29, though the least expensive over the life time is very likely the Gripen.

It’s unclear to me whether SAAB is submitting the base Gripen, or the improved Gripen NG.