Category: Defense Procurement

Rumors of FCS Cuts

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According to this report, half of the FCS-MGVs models would be significantly delayed, with only the NLOS-C (howitzer), C2V (command post), RSV (reconnaissance), and the Infantry Carrier Vehicle (ICV) staying in the pipeline.

This would mean that the MCS (tank), both medical variants, the mortar carrier, and the FRMV* recovery vehicle would be placed in limbo.

This makes sense. The howitzer is the most advanced, being given an aggressive development schedule following the demise of the Crusader, and the C2V and RSV are most heavily tied into the net-centric warefare.

As to the ICV, it carries a 9 person infantry squad, as opposed to the 6 person capacity of the Bradley (because if its manned turret), and the army has found this inconvenient in combat operations, to say the least, because it meant dispatching 2 IFVs if you wanted to send a full squad somewhere, so it actually would be a significant improvement over its predecessor.

Of course, there are a lot of unmanned turrets on the market now, and you could get the same for less by retrofitting them to the Bradley.

*Full disclosure, I worked on the Future Recovery and Maintenance Vehicle, FRMV, “wrecker” variant of the FCS-MGV† from 2003-2006 at United Defense (later BAE Systems after the Carlyle Group sold me to buy Dunkin Donuts).
†Future Combat Systems-Manned Ground Vehicle. These are the ones that are the tanks and APCs. As opposed to the various unnmanned vehicles, networking technologies, etc. that form the full FCS along with the MGVs.‡
‡Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

New Helos Finally Enter Russian Service

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With development beginning in the 1970s, the Mi-28N and the Kamov Ka-52 attackers, and the more recent Ansat-U training helicopter, are finally entering Russian service in meaningful numbers.

The Mi-28 “Havoc” was intended to replace the Mi-24 “Hind” in the 1980s, and the Ka-52, a derivative of the single seat Ka-50 attack helo, which was the winner, and then the loser, against the Mi-28 over the past few decades looks to serve as a scout attack helo.

It looks like both will eventually, the radar is still in development, be equipped with millimeter radar guided missiles, much link the longbow.

Boeing Jumps into Danish Fighter Competition

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Where its Super Hornet joins the Gripen NG and the JSF.

I think that the fix is in for the JSF, bribery and coercion offsets and diplomatic considerations making any other choice highly unlikely.

The Gripen is still the cheapest alternative, but the F/A-18 E/F is not only flying, but actually in service, and so is even more of a know quantity than the Gripen.

But like I said, there is a very hard full court press going on with this aircraft.

Eurocopter to Offer UH-72 Variant for ARH Contract

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After the Army canceled the Bell proposal because of delays and cost overruns and put out proposals for new bids, we are now seeing Eurocopter enter the fray.

As they are already delivering the UH-72A Lakota (EC145) to the US army, they may have a leg up on competitor Boeing.

Bell could reenter the competition too, but seeing as how their helo was canceled following a 4 year day and a threefold increase in development costs, I don’t think that they will.

Rumors that EADS Will Abandon A400M Transport

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They have suspended production and the prototype is yet to fly, though the engine has finally taken to the air in the C-130 testbed, and now the Financial Times Deutschland is reporting that EADS is considering walking away from the contract.

I’m not sure how that would work, but EADS is facing some fairly substantial penalties for the delays, and

My guess is that the rumors, and the dire statements made by EADS executives, are an attempt to move negotiations on delays in their favor.

JSF Breaks Nunn-McCurdy Limits

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Which means that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is massively over budget.

They have finally gotten to the point where they cannot use accounting tricks to cover this up.

I expect the unit cost to rise sharply now, and be near that of the F-22.

A number of people have been predicting this, most notably the House Appropriations Committee, who have been pushing for more Super Hornets, and the DoD, who were trying to accellerate purchases, doubtless to beat this announcement. (paid subscription required)

The 1990s Defense Industry Consolidation Did Not Save Money

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The report here only applies to a study of consolidation of U.S. shipbuilding operations, but having worked in the defense industry over that period, I can tell you it did not work there either.

Instead, you saw bizarre expensive workshare arrangements to preserve the only two entities capable of producing a weapon system, because if you only had one, then it makes sense to nationalize the industry.

It’s Rubinomics applied to the military-industrial complex, and a failure.

The 800 Pound Gorilla for the JSF

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It is that any nation operating the aircraft will be shut down in a very short time without direct US support.

As Bill Sweetman notes here, if the JSF progresses as anticipated, it will drive all other competitors out of business. Sometime around 2020, you could see the Typhoon, Gripen, Rafale and F-18 being unsellable, because, like the Italians and the F-104S, the nations using them cannot afford upgrades, because they have to go it alone.

While the Gripen model of using existing systems essentially unmodified in their aircraft might offer the ability to make support and upgrades affordable, there is a very real possibility that there will be no fighter industry left outside of the US/JSF and Russia, but the folks doing this do not have a good track record:

There hasn’t (for example) been one successful stealth warplane program since the F-117. The A-12 and Comanche were cancelled outright. The B-2 cost tens of billions to fix and is so costly to operate that efforts to sell more than 21 jets were unsuccessful. The F-22 works, but the current debate over whether to acquire more than 183 jets is driven to a great extent by the startling cost of maintenance and upgrades. JSF itself is already two and a half years behind the original schedule, and further problems are certainly not out of the question at this stage.

If your track record is Ishtar and Howard the Duck, and you tell me that you’ve got something that beats Gone With The Wind and Star Wars, you are going to have to prove it with more than a PowerPoint, or “trust me, but it’s secret.”

(emphasis mine)

This is something to think about, and it’s my favorite defense procurement quote of the year, but this is not the gorilla that I mentioned.

The 800 lb gorilla is the fact, as Bill Sweetman notes, that any nation adopting the JSF will be completely unable to field those aircraft without active and aggressive support from the US/Lockheed Martin:

The JSF is unique in the degree of integration in its information systems. So far, for example, it has no open-standard transmit datalink, at least in stealth mode. The automated logistics system will continuously transmit operational information back to Fort Worth. Not only is it a coalition-optimized airplane, it’s hard to see how it could be operated at all without direct, constant US support.

He further notes that the JSF will be shipped without a jammer, which will not be an issue for the US, which has EA-6Bs and shortly E/F-18-Gs to provide standoff jamming, but is a real problem for other nations, who do not operated dedicated stand off jammers, and it is nigh impossible for them to retrofit such a system into a tightly integrated airframe…Truth be told, I’m not sure that they could even find power, much less signal to do so.

Finally, the JSF will not communicate with legacy aircraft. The US is planning to handle this with a MADL (the stealthy communications system installed on the JSF) on something like a business jet that will be well behind the combat zone, but again, any other nation operating the plane will not have this capability.

If I were a nation looking at operating the aircraft under these circumstances *cough* Israel *cough*, I’d be very concerned.

Because the USAF Thinks That There No Other Needs But Them

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So the boys in blue, despite officially eschewing a supersonic aircraft for their Next Generation Bomber, and canceling the Blackswift hypersonic demonstrator, are still looking for something that flies faster than Mach 1 and carries bombs. (paid subscription required)

If you’re confused, that’s what happens when you look at Air Force procurement programs recently. As Bill Sweetman notes, when talking about USAF procurement, “If your track record is Ishtar and Howard the Duck, and you tell me that you’ve got something that beats Gone With The Wind and Star Wars, you are going to have to prove it with more than a PowerPoint, or ‘trust me, but it’s secret.’“

They are looking at a tailless supersonic design, which would achieve the requisite broadband stealth, only, no one has gotten a tailless design to fly at supersonic speeds.

Basically, they are looking at advanced applications of fluidics for both the serpentine air inlets and the control systems.

Considering the drains of Iraq, Afghanistan, and now the US economy, and the complete lack of utility on the highest tech desires of the USAF, they have to smoking something pretty powerful.

Speaking of the Cluster F%$# that is the A400M Development Program

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It looks like EADS is asking for a further 2 year delay in service entry for the A400M military transport.

At the same time, a report says that the A400m is over weight and under-performing:

The FTD cited sources which said the current version of the A400M can carry only 29-30 tons of material, instead of an expected 32 tons, and that it is itself 12 tons overweight.

Nice to know that bloated under-performers in defense acquisition is not a special American monopoly.

If You Need to Incorporate Stealth into a Transport Aircraft

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Then maybe you have a problem like lack of air superiority over your airfields, which pretty much means “game over”.

This makes me wonder why the USAF is soliciting proposals from Boeing and Northrop-Grumman for stealthy STOL airlifters.

My guess is that this is a way to get additional money for a successor to the B-2 bomber through a back door, because there ain’t any money in the front door.

Obviously, this is technically challenging, if just because tailless designs do not lend themselves to short take-off and landing and the slow speeds that this entails.

The basic requirement, the ability to operate from a a 1,500-2,000ft landing strip and cruise at Mach 0.80 is doable, and has been done, even at the size that they are looking at, a 35T payload, roughly equivalent to an EADS A400M, which comes close to these goals…Or it will when it finally flies.

Clearly, the two proposals differ, with Boeing going with a tail, and they will rely heavily on things like blown flaps, and perhaps some application of the Coandă effect.


Boeing Concept


Northrop-Grumman Concept


STOL Technologies from Northrop-Grumman

India Buys 8 P-8I’s for $2.1B

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It’s the largest defense contract ever between India and the US for 8 of the Boeing 737 derived maritime patrol and anti-submarine aircraft.

They will replace a similar number of Tupolev-142Ms “Bear” turboprops.

They will carry sonar buoys, depth charges, torpedos, and Harpoon missiles for use against surface combatants.

Considering that the next largest Indo-US deal was a $962 million contract for 6 C-130J, this is a step up, both in size and technology transfer.

That being said, the US is still a bit player, with Russia, France , and Israel dominating the defense import market to India.

More Evidence of Chinese Carrier Aspirations

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We have reports that the China are in negotiations to buy Su-33 carrier based fighters.

I think that we will see moderately sized (about 50,000 ton) carriers joining the Chinese fleet in the next decade, but the real indicator of their naval aspirations will be their submarine and amphibious warefare ship fleets.

The carriers are primarily a national pride undertaking, not a military endeavor.

Guided Rocket Video Pr0n

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Direct Attack Guided Rocket (DAGR) guidance kit for the 2.75-inch rocket
vid and pic
Note that this a Lockheed-Martin analogue to BAE’s Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System that I wrote about a few months back.

The rocket and guidance, semi-active laser homing for DAGR, appears to be pretty much the same as APKWS, though it appears that the launcher is designed to be compatible with Hellfire, as opposed to the existing 2.75″ rocket launchers.

Here is the video for the earth shattering kaboom.

U.S. in Talks with India to Sell Star Wars Systems

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The US and India are in talks regarding the purchase of missile defense systems.

From a purely technical perspective, India’s defense needs are less challenging, the speed of an incoming missile increases with the distance with which it travels and Pakistan and China both share a border.

It’s unclear from the article whether this is a real attempt to sell systems to India, or a PR attempt intended by missile defense advocates on both sides to boost the government support for their respective systems.