Category: Defense Procurement

Further Indian Problems With Russian Arms Deals

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While the Indian military has had a long history of using Soviet, and later Russian weapons systems, on the naval side things have been strained lately, with delays, under-performance, and cost overruns being the rule rather than the exception, with the Admiral Gorshokov/Vikramaditya fiasco being most prominent.

Now the Indian Navy has
rejected the recently upgraded Kilo class submarines.

This appears to have been driven by integration issues with the Klub-S 3M-54E1 (SS-N-27 Sizzler) anti-ship/land attack missiles, which failed to strike the targets in tests.

I’m not sure if this will effect the massive medium fighter buy planned by the Indian AF, as the problems at this point seem to be limited to naval equipment.

Australia Looking at Procuring Russian Fighters

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I think that this is more gamesmanship than anything else. The Australian militaryreally want the F-22, but it has not been cleared for export, so so they claiming that they are evaluating the MiG-29 and the Su-35.

The Australians are not happy about having the buy the F-35 JSF, because it lacks the agility that they want, and because there are serious scheduling and budget issues.

The new defence minister has meanwhile warned that Canberra will not tolerate further delays or an increase in the cost of the F-35.

Additionally, Australia is making noises about canceling its $5.8 billion purchase of 24 F/A-18 E/F “Superhornets” as a part or reevaluating their defense needs.

My assessment is that they are playing chicken in an attempt to get the US Congress to change the law that prevents F-22 exports, though even with that hurdle taken care of, the development costs of an export version looks to be around $1 billion.

When the Department of Defense Homeland Secrity Wants It’s Money Back, You’ve Screwed Up

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So, the Coast Guard wants to to stretch and improve some (49) patrol boats, and the contract goes out to Lockheed-Martin and Northrop-Grumman, with the former doing the new systems, and the latter doing the hulls.

Small problem though, the systems don’t work, and the stretched boats buckle and leak. What’s more they leaked more than water. They used unshielded cables on the upgrade, meaning that your average Russian fishing trawler could listen in to a secure military network.

So the Coast Guard is asking for its money back:

The U.S. Coast Guard has asked a joint venture of Lockheed Martin Corp and Northrop Grumman Corp to pay $96.1 million for eight patrol boats that it modified, but that cannot be used.

I’m shocked, but less so than if it happened on a DoD, as opposed to a DHS contract*.

The coast guard is decommissioning (basically scrapping) the boats in question, and is taking back management of the program from the LSI (see my rundown on the LSI process, and why congress is moving to ban the process, here) of the , “$24 billion, 25-year modernization program known as Deepwater”.

Wouldn’t happen in the DoD. Too many generals who plan to work their retirements with the defense contractors.

*The strikethrough in the title is irony, not a correction.

Air Force Attempts Blackmail to Get More F-22s

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The USAF has been trying any means possible to keep the F-22 production line open.

This time, it is using the structural problems of the F-15 to do so.

Let’s be clear, this is a serious issue, but the USAF permanently grounding 180 aircraft is unnecessary.

It appears that the problem is the result of two things, the age of the airframe, and the fact that some of the longerons are defective.

That being said, the USAF personnel running around crying that the sky is falling, and so you get quotes like this:

“Do you try to patch a 25-year-old airplane that has been patched and patched and patched?” another senior Air Force official asked. “After the repairs, it will not be the same aircraft it was before.”

The answer, of course, is that it will be the same aircraft as before. The repairs are not cheap, my guess would be on the order of $200,000 to $300,000 per aircraft, and with a weight hit of somewhere between 50 and 100 kg.

Compared to something north of $150,000,000 for an F-22, it is an inexpensive solution.

One of the things that USAF is studiously quiet about is the fact that the F-15 is a superior platform for the interception of cruise missiles, because it has a larger antenna for its radar (Physics is a bitch, ain’t it).

Swedish Company Tests Hyper Velocity Missile

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It’s supposed to be able to achieve Mach 5.5 at sea level, that’s about 4200 miles per hour.


The article makes the suggestion that this might have been designed to be used with a multi transmitter anti-stealth radar system. Basically, you would target the missile on coordinates, and have no terminal guidance, so a shorter flight time would reduce error from the target changing course.

It would also be a potent anti-tank weapon, relying on kinetic energy for a kill, but it does appear to be a bit large for that application, as the 45 kg CKEM and 5 foot long(see picture below) can destroy any known armored vehicle.

The Saab-Bofors vehicle appears to be at least twice that size.

Congress Moves to Ban Lead System Integrator (LSI) Procurement

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The latest defense authorization bill bans lead LSI contracts:

2008 defense authorization bill includes a provision — section 802 — that would prohibit the Defense Department from awarding new contracts for lead systems integrator functions beginning Oct. 1, 2010. The bill also would place an immediate ban on such arrangements for programs that are not yet in low-rate initial production.

This may seem to be a bit esoteric, but the basics of the LSI arrangement are the idea that the system is so complex that the military cannot contract management and oversight, so it gets handed off to a Lead Systems Integrator.

Shorter version: Fox, here are the key to the hen house.

The results:

  • FCS:

The outcome has been less than impressive. In 2003, when the LSI contract officially kicked off, Future Combat was meant to be a $92 billion effort; today, that figures stands at $200 billion, minimum — and maybe more than $230. An operating system that was supposed to require 33.7 million lines of code is now estimated to be 63.8 million lines big. “They’re getting to the point they should’ve been in 2003,” Francis noted.

Hull cracks, bad wiring, insecure network, and (of course) over budget.

  • Air Force Transformational Satellite:

    Shrinking performance, the LSIs refusing to verify program requirements , and (of course) over budget.

Israel Wants JSF As Soon As Possible, But Has Problems With Aircraft

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Unlike Japan, Israel has come to the conclusion that there will be no F-22 sales, so they want JSF deliveries as soon as possible (paid subscription reqired, preferably starting in 2012, because they want to add stealth as soon as possible.

There are, however, some road bumps on the way:

  • Lockheed-Martin is saying that there can be no foreign deliveries until 2014.
  • There are no Israeli weapons qualified for use on the aircraft, and it’s closed, tightly integrated architecture will make qualifying those weapons (Python 5 AAM and successors, Spice PGM) extremely difficult.
  • The IAF does not believe that it can perform its missions as a single seat aircraft.
    • As an aside, the USAF has been trying to get rid of the weapons system operator (guy in back) for years, probably to free up a few more planes for the fly-boys.
  • Integration of Israeli radar and EW systems could “difficult and expensive”.

These issues mirror many of the UK’s issue with the aircraft, where, as it currently stands, the RAF and the RNAF will not be able to maintain the aircraft fully, and in some cases aircraft would have to be sent back to the States for maintenance or upgrade.

Gripen Upgraded Engine Cheaper

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It turns out that in addition to providing 20+% more thrust, the F-414 has about the same air flow requirements, meaning no major redesign of the inlets, and it is actually cheaper than the F-404 derived RM12 that it replaces.

Of note, the AESA that they are looking at installing is angled:

Which could give lower radar cross section, and possibly better azimuth performance if the antenna rotates.

What is really amazing is that they expect the proof of concept demonstrator to fly next year.

To the degree that there is a Mirage III type success of this generation of aircraft, I think that it will be the Gripen, though purchases of the previous generation (or half generation depending on how you count) F-16s may still dominate the market because of the relatively low cost.

Czechmate in Austria

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In addition to this being a great headline, this also reflects something that we should see, but never do in US Defense procurement.

The Czech Republic canceled a $1.1 billion contract with Austrian manufacturer Steyr-Daimler-Puch Spezialfahrzeug to buy 199 Pandur II armored 8×8 personnel carriers.

The vehicles failed to meet 24 of the 93 required criteria, and missed their end of November delivery date.

In the United States, of course, we just throw more money at them.

France Finally Gets Foreign Sale of Rafale: 14 to Libya

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The deal appears to be done, though there are still “i”s to be dotted and “t”s to be crossed.

This is very good news for both the French air forces, who were looking for foreign sales to drop unit costs, and Dassault, who have been pulling their hair out over the flop that the aircraft has made in the world market.

14 is not a lot, but it makes the aircraft a lot more attractive to a second potential purchaser, as being the only export purchaser tends to create worries about support.

France May Finally Get a Foreign Sale of Its Rafale

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It looks like Libya is seriously considering the Rafale.

This is important to the French industry. The marketing of the Rafale has been abysmal. Previous French fighter aircraft, the various Mirage series aircraft, have been at the bottom of the market of their generation.

The planes have been smaller and lighter than most, if not all, its competitors (the Mirage did signifantly outperform the F-5 though).

The Rafale is a midsized aircraft, and so the nations considering it, and the capabilities that they require, are significantly different.

For this upcoming generation of aircraft, the Gripen is probably closest to staking out the role of the Mirage in the market.

A Puff Piece on The Future Combat System-Manned Ground Vehicle

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I think that Iraq has changed the way that the US Army looks at conflict. It’s obvious now that most of the obstacles that the US military will face are those in a counter-insurgency or similar non-conventional warfare.

That being the case, it is not surprising that the Army’s largest program, the Future Combat System (FCS), and in particular the Manned Ground Vehicle (FCS-MGV) is being redesigned.

That being said, the article I linked to is far more optimistic than I think is justified.

My background: I worked for three years on the Recovery and Maintenance Vehicle (FRMV), basically an armored wrecker, variant of the FCS-MGV.

As to the changes, the first is having, “the suspension and seats inside the 27-ton MGV will be suspended from the ceiling, not bolted to the floor”. I’m dubious of this.

As anyone who has tried to get out of a hammock knows, it’s not easy. It’s less easy when one is in full battle gear (one variant, the ICV will carry 9 troops in addition to crew), and I think that the whole “getting hung up on the straps” is highly problematic.

Additionally, there may be issues of motion sickness, but I don’t have the background to evaluate that.

The article also goes on at great length about how the modular armor will allow upgrades as technology develops. This is absolutely true, but this is not a new development. It was always a required part of allowing the vehicle to achieve C-130 mobility.

The active protection system does qualify as a significant improvement in survivability against some threats, long range ATGWs, long rod penetrators, and short range RPGs.

It’s cannot to provide protection against IEDs, and it’s unlikely to be able to effect explosively formed penetrators, as the reaction time is too slow. Additionally, the system relies on radars, which means that the vehicle will be an emitter on the field, which can compromise signature reduction.

The purchase of the Israeli Trophy APS should give some good indications of the actual battlefield utility of such systems.

My guess is that the systems, APS, modular armor, and (perhaps) seats are far more likely to find their way into legacy systems than it is for the FCS-MGV to see service, with the possible exception of the NLOS-C howitzer system.

Pentagon Support for Useless, Overprices Boondoggle Gains Strength

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Yes, after years of lobbying, it looks like the Pentagon may support buying more F-22s.

It’s expensive, it’s designed for use against the non-existent Warsaw Pact, it has no advantages in a counter-insurgency campaign, and it is highly limited (the JSF is a far better bomb truck).

Additionally, any new production will have to update computer hardware and software, because the original architecture is obsolete.

Yet another indication that the USAF should be reintegrated into the Army. This is a toy for the wild blue yonder set.

Rare Glimpse Of Russia’s Future Cruise Missile

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This is the new Russian cruise missile, the Kh-101/102.
According to Aviation Week (paid subscription required) this is to have a roughly 5000km (3000 mi) range and a small radar cross section.

This compares favorably to the current Kh-55, a non stealthy design with a shorter range (2550 km) and smaller size (6m vs 8m).

On the bottom, about halfway down, appears to be a chin mounted air intake, though this might be some sort of EO sensor, as the -101 version is conventionally armed, and hence needs more precise targeting.

It can be carried internally on the Tu-160 Blackjack, and externally on the TU-95 Bear.

F-35 JSF Problems Worse Than Reported

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I was already aware that that flight testing had been suspended after a power system glitch, but was under the impression that this was a temporary flaw that did not effect flying characteristics, though it did lead to an emergency landing, as any major system dropout, no matter how short, should during testing.

After a series of 7 quite successful flights, the test flight program stops in February 2007 to fix some minor problems in the JSF flight control software. This is not unusual in the early stages of a test flight program. In March 2007, the JSF returns to flight status and takes off for the first supersonic flight. At the end of April the JSF prototype AA-1 takes off several times a week. But then, destiny strikes. On May 3, 2007 with the second test pilot Jeff Knowles at the stick, a serious malfunction hits the JSF. At 38,000 feet (12 km) level flight and at a speed of some 800 km/hour, the plane executed a planned, 360-degree roll but experienced power loss in the electrical system about halfway through the manoeuvre.

In an emergency procedure, power is restored and Jeff Knowles regains control of the plane. The pilot cuts short this 19th test flight and makes an emergency landing in Fort Worth, TX. Due to control problems with right wing flaperons, the JSF has to make that landing at an exceptional high speed of 220 knots (350 km/hr). The plane’s undercarriage, brakes and tires are damaged. The plane is stopped, surrounded by emergency vehicles, and towed away, but several eyewitnesses take pictures of the emergency landing.

This is not a glitch that does not affect flying characteristics. This a dangerous landing and the risk of loss of airframe and pilot.

Additionally, the power supply for the aircraft is about only 65% of necessary power, which, given that the F-35 has a power by wire setup on its control surface actuators means much more than just the radar or displays dropping out, it means potential loss of control.

Additionally, to save money, they want to cancel two of the test aircraft, and eliminate about 15% of the test flights. The excuse is that simulation will handle it, but more reasonably, this is budget games, because if problems are discovered on a fielded system, Congress is over a barrel to protect pilots already flying the aircraft.

Saab, manufacturer of the Gripen, which should be available with a similar sensor suite shortly, though not the same stealth or apyload/range performance is saying that its operating costs will be about 2/3 of the JSF (believable, considering that it is about 1/2 the size), so it becomes a compelling alternative…A MirageIII/V of this generation, if you will.

Considering that the Typhoon, Rafale, and Gripen are all fielded, it is unlikely that they will experience significant price increases (Gripen excepted if they do a growth version), and in the long run will likely be much cheaper.