Category: Economy

Economics Update

Well, Ben Bernanke went before Congress, and said that there needs to be an extended period of low rates to ensure that the recovery.

Of course, in terms of real estate, the question is whether or not the Fed continues its policies to keep mortgage rates low, and considering the fact that new home sales fell to the lowest level on record in January, and mortgage applications fell this week, with the purchase index hitting its lowest level since 1997, housing is still on life support.

For that matter, so is commercial real estate, with the architecture billings index falling in January.

In any case, Bernanke’s talk about continued low rates drove the dollar down, which in turn drove oil up.

Monopolies Are Strangling Our Economy

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Graphic Courtesy of the WaPo

In Washington Monthly, Barry C. Lynn and Phillip Longman argue that the increase in jobless recovery and stagnation is an artifact of the increasingly monopolistic marketplace that we encounter:

If any single number captures the state of the American economy over the last decade, it is zero. That was the net gain in jobs between 1999 and 2009—nada, nil, zip. By painful contrast, from the 1940s through the 1990s, recessions came and went, but no decade ended without at least a 20 percent increase in the number of jobs.

…………

But while the mystery of what killed the great American jobs machine has yielded no shortage of debatable answers, one of the more compelling potential explanations has been conspicuously absent from the national conversation: monopolization. The word itself feels anachronistic, a relic from the age of the Rockefellers and Carnegies. But the fact that the term has faded from our daily discourse doesn’t mean the thing itself has vanished—in fact, the opposite is true. In nearly every sector of our economy, far fewer firms control far greater shares of their markets than they did a generation ago.

Indeed, in the years after officials in the Reagan administration radically altered how our government enforces our antimonopoly laws, the American economy underwent a truly revolutionary restructuring. Four great waves of mergers and acquisitions—in the mid-1980s, early ’90s, late ’90s, and between 2003 and 2007—transformed America’s industrial landscape at least as much as globalization. Over the same two decades, meanwhile, the spread of mega-retailers like Wal-Mart and Home Depot and agricultural behemoths like Smithfield and Tyson’s resulted in a more piecemeal approach to consolidation, through the destruction or displacement of countless independent family-owned businesses.

It is now widely accepted among scholars that small businesses are responsible for most of the net job creation in the United States. It is also widely agreed that small businesses tend to be more inventive, producing more patents per employee, for example, than do larger firms. Less well established is what role concentration plays in suppressing new business formation and the expansion of existing businesses, along with the jobs and innovation that go with such growth. Evidence is growing, however, that the radical, wide-ranging consolidation of recent years has reduced job creation at both big and small firms simultaneously. At one extreme, ever more dominant Goliaths increasingly lack any real incentive to create new jobs; after all, many can increase their earnings merely by using their power to charge customers more or pay suppliers less. At the other extreme, the people who run our small enterprises enjoy fewer opportunities than in the past to grow their businesses. The Goliaths of today are so big and so adept at protecting their turf that they leave few niches open to exploit.

One of the points that I have made when I discuss the role of the large monopoly Telcos and how this effects the availability and price of broadband is that when a company gets large enough, it’s more profitable to keep out competitors than it is to improve the quality and efficiency of its process.

If one understands the nature of any corporation, which is that they are short-sighted sociopaths by design, this makes perfect sense: You can spend billions on innovation, or millions on locking out and/or buying up competitors.

Even Sci-Fi author Jerry Pournelle, who describes himself as being somewhere to the right of Attila the Hun, says that for the free market to function, aggressive anti-trust activities are essential. (No link, it was from his “Chaos Manor” column in Byte about 20 years ago)

H/t Kevin Drum.

Greenspan Calls Meltdown “Greatest Financial Crisis”

Normally, I don’t listen to Alan Greenspan, but when he says the the financial meltdown is worse than the Great Depression, it bears noting:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday the U.S. economic recovery was ‘extremely unbalanced,’ driven largely by high earners benefiting from recovering stock markets and large corporations.

Small businesses and the jobless are still suffering from the aftermath of a credit crunch that was ‘by far the greatest financial crisis, globally, ever’ — including the 1930s Great Depression, said Greenspan in an address to a Credit Union National Association conference.

(emphasis mine)

While I have very little confidence in judgment of Andrea Mitchell’s husband, the time that any economist of any note says “worse than the Great Depression,” it’s time to think about why we aren’t fixing this.

Economics Update

The lede today is that consumer confidence fell much more than expected, down to 46.0, when the consensus forecast was 55.0, a 10 month low.

Additionally, home prices fell in the 4th quarter, though the housing optimists are noting that the year over year drop is “only” 2½%.

When one considers the fact that the 4th quarter was juiced by tax credits, it’s worse than it looks.

Japan, on the other hand, Japan’s exports grew sharply in the 4th quarter, with a 40.9% year over year, the biggest jump since 1980, largely on increases in exports to China.

Still the dismal consumer confidence numbers put the market in a mind to doubt that there will soon be a robust recovery, which drove oil prices down, and led to a flight to safety which pushed the Yen and the dollar up.

I Guess the Name Ig Nobel Prize Was Taken

So instead, the award for the, ” the economist most responsible for causing the Global Financial Crisis, ” is called the “Dynamite Prize in Economics,” and the winner is Alan Greenspan, with Milton Friedman and Larry Summers getting 2nd and 3rd places in the competition:

Dynamite Prize Citations

Alan Greenspan (5,061 votes): As Chairman of the Federal Reserve System from 1987 to 2006, Alan Greenspan both led the over expansion of money and credit that created the bubble that burst and aggressively promoted the view that financial markets are naturally efficient and in no need of regulation.

Milton Friedman* (3,349 votes): Friedman propagated the delusion, through his misunderstanding of the scientific method, that an economy can be accurately modeled using counterfactual propositions about its nature. This, together with his simplistic model of money, encouraged the development of fantasy-based theories of economics and finance that facilitated the Global Financial Collapse.

Larry Summers (3,023 votes): As US Secretary of the Treasury (formerly an economist at Harvard and the World Bank), Summers worked successfully for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, which since the Great Crash of 1929 had kept deposit banking separate from casino banking. He also helped Greenspan and Wall Street torpedo efforts to regulate derivatives.

Greenspan was a shoe-in.

*Full disclosure: While I never met the Milton Friedman, I have met his son, David, and have had a fair number of online discussions with him on our mutual hobby of history and living history.

Economics Update

Chicago Fed Index

OK, the good news is that the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s national activity index was positiver, so we are back to something resembling treading water, and US commercial real estate prices rose 4.1% in December.

Yes, that is a month to month number, and a pretty big jump at that, though it’s worth noting that, “prices are still down 29.2 percent year over year and 40 percent from the peak.”

Additionally, short sales of have jumped again in January:

According to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, short sales accounted for a substantial 15.9 percent of home purchase transactions in January. This was well above the share of other distressed property activity – with damaged REO accounting for 13.4 percent of activity and move-in ready REO making up 13.8 percent.

The January figures represent a steady increase in short sale popularity. As recently as November of 2009, short sales accounted for 12.4 percent of the home purchase market, according to the Campbell report, behind move-in ready REO at 12.6 percent and nearly even with damaged REO transactions at 12.3 percent.

I would note that when you add short sales, damaged REO (basically foreclosures), and undamaged REO together, means that at least 43.1% of all sales.

In energy, oil continues to climb, approaching $80/bbl, and in currency, and the dollar was mixed.

Core Inflation Fell For the First Time in 28 Years

Down 0.1% in January:

The cost of living in the U.S. rose in January less than anticipated and a measure of prices excluding food and fuel fell for the first time since 1982, indicating the recovery is generating little inflation.

The consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent for a fifth straight month, led by higher fuel costs, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Excluding energy and food, the so-called core index unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent, reflecting a drop in new-car prices, clothing and shelter.

And still, the Federal Reserve is full of people who are batsh%$ insane inflation hawks, and there are two seats open, but Obama has not bothered to appoint people who are, you know, saner, in what is clearly a deflationary environment.

Economics Update

I already blogged about the big news of the day, the increase in the rate for the discount window, so the lede here, as it is every jobless Thursday, is initial unemployment claims, which rose by 31,000 to 473,000, though the 4 week moving average fell slightly, and continuing claims were unchanged.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its index of regional manufacturing activity, and the index is positive, indicating continued growth, for the 6th straight month.

In Wally World, Wal-Mart’s same store sales fell in the 4th quarter.

I’m not sure if this is just generally bad news, or if it implies that shoppers are moving upscale and spending more.

The rest of the news is driven by today’s Fed announcement, which drove treasuries down, and thus yields up, as well as pushing the dollar, and crude oil higher.

Please Check My Math

James Kwak in discussing Barack Obama’s putative deficit reduction panel, which is supposed to seat people from both sides of the aisle to address the deficit, asks the following question, “What if they put Mankiw and Krugman on this commission?”

Well, let us assume that both Greg Mankiw and Paul Krugman mass 75 kg.

It’s fair to characterize them as the economic equivalents of anti-matter and matter, so:

  • e=mc2
  • M=75+75=150 kg
  • e=1.35×1019joules
  • According to the wiki, a megaton is 4.184×1015 joules
  • This gives 1.35×1019 joules/4.184×1015 joules/megaton = 3226.5 megatons of energy released.

I think that this places the idea of placing both of them on the same panel as “imprudent”.

Economics Update

Mortgage applications fell last week, with home purchases leading the way relative to refinancing on the way down.

Even so, housing starts rose sharply, though as Calculated Risk notes, a lot of this is likely from home builders trying to complete houses in time before the latest round of housing tax credits expire at the end of April.

In the world of actually making stuff, US industrial output rose more than expected in January.

In the “looming train wrecks” category, the newly released minutes from the Fed’s January meeting show increasing confidence in the economy, it appears that there are some strong voices for the Federal Reserve to significantly shrinking their balance sheet, would would likely result in a significant, probably in excess of 50 basis points (½%), increases in mortgage rates, which would make an already shaky real estate market even more problematic.

In any case, the news on housing starts and industrial output drove both oil and the dollar is higher.

Economics Update

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Capital One charge-off rates, H/t Calculated Risk

Well, the New York Federal Reserve Bank just released its Empire State Manufacturing, Index, and it rose more than expected, from 15.9 in December to 24.9 in January, though I have no clue as to how the numbers went up:

……The details of the report were mixed. New orders slowed to 8.8 in February from 20.5 in the prior month. Shipments inched lower. However, inventories were flat in February after 17 straight negative monthly readings. Employment was positive for the second straight month……

I’m a little bit confused, but it appears that what we are seeing here is almost entirely stronger inventories, so as been noted before, it appears to be an inventory bounce.

In consumer credit, things appear to be moderating, in that default rates for the major card companies did not increase last month, or more accurately they didn’t rise last month for major credit card companies, except for Capital One, whose charge off rates rose from 10.14% to 10.41% in January. (See chart pr0n)

In real estate the National Association of Home Builder confidence index rose last month, albeit from an amazingly unambiguously crappy 15 to startlingly unambiguously crappy 17, where 50 is neutral.

In England, inflation rose sharply in January, to a 3.5% annual rate, which really isn’t scary at all, and additionally it should be noted that much of this was driven by the VAT (sales tax) increasing from 15% to a 17.5 as that stimulus measure expired, as shown by the fact that the, “CPIY rate of inflation, which strips out the effect of indirect taxes, fell from 2.8 per cent in December to 1.9 per cent in January.”

I just want to say, once again, that low inflation is a part of the problem, and another parts are the inflation hawks, both among regulators and among bond investors.

In currency, the dollar fell on reduced concerns about the Greek financial meltdown, which increased risk appetite.

I am not sure why investors had reduced concerns about Greece though. (I’ll get to the Greek crisis in more detail later)

Additionally, we have a report that the Bank of Japan is planning more quantitative easing if the Yen strengthens to OJ May Expand Easing Should Yen Reach ¥87:$1.00.

In any case, the falling dollar had commodity traders buying oil, which drove the price higher.

Nice that Paul Krugman Has Come Around to My Way of Thinking

I’m not saying that it was a result of anything that I did, but he is now arguing that our economy needs “modestly higher inflation,” though he is talking more about problems in the Euro zone, as opposed to those in the US.

He does include the US though when he talks admiringly of a paper by Olivier Blanchard which notes that with higher inflation, a central bank has more room to cut rates before hitting the zero bound.

I would also note that he is still talking about rather modest inflation; a 4% instead of 2% target, while I would go for 6-8% for the next 3 years.

Economics Update

As today is a holiday in the United States, it was a fairly slow news day, but over the weekend, we got a report on house prices in the UK, and the asking price rose at the fastest rate in 3 years, of course, the whole problem with the real-estate crisis was the disconnect between ask and offer, so I’d wait for sale prices to rejoice.

In real estate in the US, delinquencies on commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) jumped in January.

On the brighter side, Japanese GDP grew strongly, largely on capital spending driven by exports.

In currency and energy, the Euro hit a 9 month low on the mess that is Greece, while crude oil was basically flat, up 6¢/bbl.

Economics Update

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H/t Calculated Risk


It appears that inventories are now in line with sales.
Downward trend is the result of increased efficiencies
H/t Calculated Risk

In the good news/bad news dichotomy, we see that retail sales rose ½% in January but consumer confidence fell:

January sales at U.S. retailers climbed more than anticipated, while consumer confidence unexpectedly fell this month from a two-year high, showing a recovery in household spending may be gradual.

Retail purchases increased 0.5 percent, the third gain in the past four months, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 73.7 from 74.4 the prior month.

Not sure what this all means, to tell the truth.

Sometimes teasing meaning out of the data is like drinking from a fire hose.

On the other hand, the data from Europe, where disappointing GDP numbers from Italy and Germany have unexpectedly fallen in the 4th quarter, is pretty easy to understand, as is the fact that Bloomberg’s Professional Global Confidence Index, fell on concerns that deficit problems among some nations in the Euro zone will hinder recovery.

By some countries, I mean, of course, the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain), who are largely hamstrung in their ability to deal with the crisis because of deficit requirements of, and the fixed exchange rate from, being in the Euro zone.

BTW, here’s a story that we may here more of in the next few months: there has been a surprising outflow of funds from “junk bond mutual funds:

High-yield, high-risk bond mutual funds last week had their biggest outflows since 2008, adding to signs that the junk debt market may be set for a “reversal.”

Investors withdrew $1.13 billion from mutual funds invested in high-yield debt, including exchange-traded funds, in the week ended Feb. 5, according to research firm EPFR Global. That’s the most since early in the third quarter of 2008 and reverses a $335.6 million inflow from the previous week, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR.

I do not know what is up (or more accurately down) here but someone out there knows something and is acting on it.

In any case, the problems in Europe, along with new Chinese actions to reign in lending by increasing bank reserve requirements, have raised concerns about the economy which driven crude oil down, and led to a flight to safety which has driven the dollar up.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

Well, yesterday was, as Atrios says, jobless Thursday, and unemployment claims fell more than forecast, falling to just 440,000, which is still not enough for an increase in non-farm employment.

The White House is predicting about 95,000 new jobs a month being created in 2010, but based on some quick numbers, a 1.1% annual labor force growth times 155,200,000 people in the US labor force divided by 12 months, there need to be about 142,000 jobs created each month just to accommodate natural growth, so things aren’t getting better, they are just getting worse more slowly.

On the other hand, the news out of California, that tax receipts are well in excess of predictions, is legitimately good news.

Finally, in a discovery of the blatantly obvious, a the TARP’s Congressional Oversight Panel has determined that commercial real estate is imploding, and this threatens the viability of many small and mid sized bank. …………Hoocoodanode?

Economics Update

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H/t Calculated Risk

We have the numbers for the December trade deficit, and it increased by 10.4%, largely on the increases in energy imports. (See graph pr0n)

In the nexus of banking and real estate, home mortgage demand fell last week, despite the fact that rates fell on the 30 year fixed mortgage, and as the Mortgage Bankers Association notes, the fall is in new home purchases, refinancing continues apace:

The Refinance Index increased 1.4 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7.0 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 7.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

In international finance, the Bank of Korea kept its benchmark steady 2%, largely in response to surging unemployment in South Korea.

Australia, on the other hand, experienced the largest growth in the workforce in 3 years.

In currency, the dollar was mixed, largely on reports that a deal may be in the offing in the Euro Zone for Greece’s debt mess, news of which also drove oil prices slightly higher.

Economics Update

Normally, I don’t talk stock prices, particularly the Dow, which is an arbitrary and not particularly accurate metric of the stock market, but the fact that the DJIA closed below 10,000 today has a significant effect on the thinking of the markets, or at least on the thinking of the financial journalists.

On the other hand we do have some good signs, most notably that the interest rate premoum on junk bonds appears to be falling, which generally implies that financing is becoming more available.

Additionally, it appears that some sort of deal is in the offing with the EU to bail out Greece, which has driven voth the Yen and the dollar lower, because investors are not looking so hard for safe havens.

As is the norm, the falling dollar has driven oil higher.

The Employment Numbers

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H/t Calculated Risk


Employment Population Ration, h/t Calculated Risk


Part time involuntarily, h/t Calculated Risk


Worst recession since WWII, h/t Calculated Risk


Temp hiring, which is a leading indicator, is improving, h/t Calculated Risk


Birth/death model, h/t Daily Reckoning

Well, the good news is that the unemployment rate fell to 9.7%. The bad news is that non farm payroll fell by 20,000, while analysts had forecast an increase of 5,000.

Unemployment falling is therefore entirely the result of people, most notably white women, having stopped looking for work, so I would not call it a good thing.

The fact is that long term unemployment, people who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks,* has hit 4.1% of the civilian workforce, an all time record.

Barry Ritholtz digs a bit deeper, and finds positive data points:

  • The household survey shows an increase, and the household survey covers small business missed by the business survey.
  • Temp employment increased, and temp hiring leads full time hiring, assuming that companies don’t go “permatemp”.
    • I would note that I have anecdotally observed this when I call “job shops” about contract work. Things to seem to be picking up, hence 2 interviews (1 in person and 1 phone) in the past 2 weeks, as versus 1 (phone) interview in the prior 6 months.
  • Part-time for economic reasons (underemployed) fell sharply (3rd graph from top)

As I noted yesterday, there was a big change in the “birth/death” adjustment, (bottom graph) and the adjustment appears to me to be more of an exercise in political number manipulation than a reasonably applied statistical technique.

In any case, if you scroll down on the full BLS report, they talk about the adjustment:

Table A presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjust-
ed basis for January through December 2009. The revised data for April 2009
forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the
sample to the new benchmark level, as well as updated net business birth/death
model adjustments and new seasonal adjustment factors. The November and
December 2009 revisions also reflect the routine incorporation of additional
sample receipts into the November final and December second preliminary
estimates. The total nonfarm employment level for March 2009 was revised down-
ward by 902,000 (930,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis), or 0.7 percent. The
previously published level for December 2009 was revised downward 1,390,000
(1,363,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis).

So they were off by over 1 million in December … Oopsie.

You can see Bloomberg’s interactive page on the effects here.

*Full disclosure, this set includes yours truly, who has been out of work for about 30½ weeks.