Category: Elections

Let’s Get Rid of Bush Dog Leonard Boswell

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Ed Fallon is challenging Leonard Boswell in the Iowa primary. (I guess that they only do the caucus for presidential stuff, could someone confirm?

It’s a good idea to take

FWIW, Gore barely won in 2000, and Bush barely won in 2004, so it’s a competitive district, but if this isn’t a year for Democrats, particularly given the economy, it I’ll eat my hat.)

You can contribute via Act Blue, Fallon’s web site is not yet up.

Fallon is popular in the district, he carried it in the gubernatorial primary that he lost state wide, and Boswell has never connected well with the district, he moved following redistricting in 2000, and he’s voted for the war without condition and the Patriot act.

The primary is on June 3.

What The NV and SC Contests Mean, My Take

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First and foremost, Mitt Romney, who already had over half the total delegates selected, has further extended his delegate lead, by winning more convincingly in a larger state.

Second, I agree with Atrios:

I think McCain is easy to beat as a candidate, but I don’t think my mental health will survive the press fluffing of him for all these months.

I would also add that I will be missing the Freddie Thompson clown show. That stuff wrote itself.

On the Democratic side, I think that this was a significant victory for Clinton in a number of ways:

  • First and foremost, Hillary won the contest, regardless of the total delegate count. This does not bode well for California.
  • She completely blew Obama among Hispanics, notwithstanding his bragging about getting that vote in the senate race against Alan Keys. The only segment of the electorate to go for Keyes is the batsh#$ insane one.
  • She won 4 out of 6 of the special caucus locations on the strip.
  • I think that Edwards is done. He did not break double digits, and the data is fairly clear, though quite surprising to me, that Edwards voters will go Clinton as a second choice.

Obviously, we have South Carolina, where Obama is favored, but I think that these, and the generally superior organization of Clinton, will mean that she seals the deal on February 5.

Of cours, my predictive powers only marginally exceed Alan Keyes sanity, so don’t put any money down on my predictions.

I Agree, the Major Political Reporters Covering the Primaries are Useless

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Would that this would happen.

Some reporters should drop out of the campaign

By Martin Schram –
Published 12:00 am PST Sunday, January 13, 2008

The verdicts of Iowa and New Hampshire prompted a handful of the 2008 political players to depart from the presidential campaign trail.

But far too many remain for our own good.

Along with the handful of presidential candidates who dropped out so far, voters might be better served if a hundred or so of my political-reporter and pundit colleagues dropped out as well – and were replaced by journalists whose beats are about national security, economics, environment and health care.

For our coverage has not been serving the public interest by providing the sort of information voters really need to know – especially in the last weeks when many voters make their decisions.

I would add something more significant. That among top tier political reporters, not only is there a lack of understanding about the political issues of the day, there is actually an active disdain for knowing these issues.

It’s all about the game, not what it means to win or lose.

The coverage is cynical and juvenile.

Danny Glover Endorses Donna Edwards

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Danny Glover has endorsed Donna Edwards for Congress in the 4th district, against corrupt DINO Al Wynn.

Last primary, despite assaults on Edwards staffers by Wynn staffers, she came within a few thousand votes of winning, despite running a campaign on a shoestring.

To contribute, go here.

Note that the 4th district is very reliably Democratic, it covers most of PG county, so the real election is in the primary, held Feb 12.

The Turmoil in Kenya

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It appears that the allegations of vote fraud may be more than just bluster, as exit polls released by the International Republican Institute show that pposition leader Raila Odinga beat Mwai Kibaki by 8 percentage points.

In related news, the opposition party won the vote for speaker of the parliament.

I have no clue as to where this is headed, but I think that it’s now clear that Kibaka needs to go, and it’s better if it happens sooner rather than later.

Judge Rules that Mississippi Senate Election Must Be Held in 90 Days

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Haley Barbour loses one. The judge judge rules that the special election must be held sooner, rather than later.

In his order, DeLaughter said the election should be held “within 90 days of the governor’s Dec. 20, 2007 proclamation of writ of election…on or before March 19, 2008.

Hood cited Mississippi Code 23-15-855, which applies to U.S. senator vacancies. He and Barbour have differing interpretations of that statute.

This is significant for a number of reasons:

  • Special elections favor motivated parties, and the Democrats are motivated, and the Republicans are not.
  • Barbour’s appointee, Roger Wicker is largely unknown throughout the state, and it prevents the politicking to make him look like a real incumbent.
  • The RSCC is broke, and the DSCC is flush with cash, and the election must be held before the RSCC can recover.

I’m doing a happy dance now.

Another Republican House Seat in Play

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Rep. Jerry Weller (R-El Guatamala*) has decided not to run for re-election†, and both the Republicans and Democrats are scrambling to try to get the seat.

It’s been Republican for years, but appears increasingly competitive, With the vote being 46%D 43%R, and 11%Green in the last gubernatorial election.

*His wife is the daughter of Efrain Rios Mott, wanted by the ICC for genocide against Mayan Indians in Guatamala.
†He’s financially tied into Mott, and has a history of shady Central American land deals.

OK, Mukasey Actually Appears to Be Doing His Job

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Well, knock me over with a sledge hammer, it appears that Attorney General Mukasey is actually doing his job, at least in what has become the minority voting suppression division of the Justice Department under Bush and His Evil Minions™.

I’m pleasantly surprised, though Abu Gonzalez actually made me nostalgic for John Freaking Ashcroft, so it is a low bar.

First, John “Minorities will be Dead Soon” Tanner has resigned as head of the voting rights section, and is moving to the Office of Special Counsel for Immigration-Related Unfair Employment Practices in December, and last friday, his replacement, Christopher Coates, who was promoted from within the section, demoted Tanner’s former deputy chiefs, Susana Lorenzo-Giguere (who drew a salary while living at her Cape Cod vacation home) and Yvette Rivera (who has been accused of discriminating against blacks on staff).

Of note is that Rivera is being replaced by Tim Mellett, who was one of the professional staff who issued a report, subsequently overruled by the political appointees , that Tom Delay’s Texas redistricting was illegal.

OK, the Results in New Hampshire McCain & Clinton Win

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And I’m pulling down the polling spreadsheet, you can find it here.

McCain beats Romney. I figured that it would be closer.

Clinton beats Obama. This one shocked me.

And yes, my prediction that Huckabee would break 17% was wrong.

If I continue to get my predictions this wrong, I expect a job offer from the Bush White House.

My analysis: First, I wish that Paul had out polled Giuliani. Just because Mr. 911 deserves to be humiliated, like he did to his last wife by announcing the divorce on Mother’s day at a press conference. The man is a human stain, and the only candidate out there worse than the Avignon President, and his VP, the human snarl.

The American public supported Rudy because they did not know him, but over the past 2-4 months, they have who he is, and they would sooner French kiss a cow than vote for him.

As to McCain, it must be great for the press corps to have a “man crush” on you. He’s too damn old, and he’s hated by the Evangelicals and by the Wall Street Republicans…He won’t win.

Huckabee did OK, and will crush the opposition in South Carolina, notwithstanding Freddie Thompson’s clown show line in the sand down there. He may not have the nomination locked up, but he if he does not get the nomination, he comes in 2nd.

Clinton-Obama, I don’t know where it’s going. According to exit poll reports, the older voters were what put her over the top, and so I would give her a slight edge.

I don’t know the effect of her being misty-eyed at that rally. I just saw it as her being tired and a bit overwhelmed, and so I did not comment on it, but perhaps people wanted to see her in a slightly less reserved mode.

It certainly didn’t hurt.

An interesting phenomenon can be on the front page of Josh Marshall’s TPM there were a lot of people who do not care for Clinton who were incensed at the way the press went after her. It’s only 2-3 letters but I assume that it represents at least a segment of the population.

I can’t see Edwards getting any traction unless either Obama or Clinton crash and burn, which depresses me.

With Obama, you have a content free campaign (and dog whistle gay baiting), and with Clinton you have potentially disasterous dynastic issues. We’ve already had 20 straight years of presidents Bush and Clinton, which is too damn much.

I’m in Maryland, so if my vote counts, I’ll be amazed, but I’m pulling the lever for Edwards.

Franken Outraising Coleman

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Whatever side you are on in Minnesota, it’s clear that you will lose, because with the amount of money raised, Franken raised $1.9 million in the last quarter, and Coleman raised $1.7 million, you are going to be getting wall to wall ads.

Once you get wall to wall ads, they go negative, because otherwise they become background noise.

I’m wondering how long before Franken is accused of being a “Thespian”.

Coleman is ahead in cash on hand, about $6m to about $3.1m, and it’s likely that even with Franken out raising his next nearest primary opponent by a significant amount, he will have a serious primary campaign.

Of course, this election is all about him, Al Franken. (Old SNL reference)

My Prediction on New Hampshire

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Well, really I have only one, that Huckabee will do a lot better than the polling trend of 12% or so.

If you look at things like this report of large crowds for him, and the statements of the Republican establishment and the Washington punditocracy* to the effect that Huckabee supporters are mouth breathing morons, which would tend to have people not telling pollsters that they lean his way.

Additionally, independent voters are more likely to vote in the Democratic primary, simply because they believe that the next president will be a Democrat, which leaves a higher proportion of hard core conservatives voting.

I’m calling for 17+% for Huckabee. (A clarification, I’m not calling a win, just that he breaks 17%)

*Which might be better described as a Kakistocracy.

Christopher Hayes’ Proposals for Good Campaign Coverage

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His proposals are pretty common sense, but they would improve coverage a lot:

Then there’s the additional problem that the longer a reporter spends with a campaign, the more likely they’ll develop either a kind of contempt for the candidate and the campaign or a strange version of stockholm syndrome. Clearly this was the case during 2000 and 2004 when the dislike for both Gore and Kerry was palpable. This might be natural and human, but it breeds awful journalism.

Finally, we have the perenial complaint that the coverage focuses on the horse-race and the theater of the campaign and not on the issues. But I don’t really think that’s the fault of reporters. First, they have to file constantly on short deadlines. So even if Obama releases a tax plan one day, and you write a piece about that, that’s still only a one-day story. What do you write about the next day? Why, Obama sniping with Hillary or somesuch. Second of all, consider the imbalance in expertise between a campaign and those who cover it. When Obama releases a tax plan, it’s a product of a team of policy experts, who know the terrain inside and out. But the reporter who has to file the deadline piece about it doesn’t have any expertise on tax policy. So how could their coverage be anything but shallow?

His proposals:

  • Rotate Reports. After covering a candidate for a few weeks, they have heard the stump speech dozens of times, and wouldn’t know a new policy initiative if it bit them on the ass.
  • More long form non-deadline pieces. (If someone has been with a candidate for months, they can provide deeper insights).
  • Assign campaign coverage to beat reports. Hays gives the example of the New York Times‘ Jeff Zeleny covering an Obama tax proposal. The problem was that Zeleny does not do taxes, and most reporters are innumerate. However, the Times does have reporters who can do taxes and count, like David Cay Johnston, who has won a Pulitzer in this area.

The only thing that I would add is that, particularly for papers like the LA Times, WaPo, and Times, who can pick and choose their talent, don’t hire innumerate reporters.

I don’t care if you are covering politics, or architecture, or fashion, if you cannot read a balance sheet, you have no business being a reporter.

We are not talking differential equations, or even calculus, we are talking Algebra that should have been mastered in high school.

Von Spakovsky says good-bye to that job at the FEC | Political Insider

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Hans Von Spakovsky resigns from the FEC, though the Bush Administration has not withdrawn his nomination.

This is a man whose professional career has been, “Keeping N***ers from Voting”, and the fact that he is exiting the scene is a good thing.

One final, more trivial note:

Between that picture, which looks like a Waffen SS photo, which, juxtaposed with his name, just gives me the creeps.

Of course, he’s not a Nazi SS member. He’s a bigot, and a lier, and a follower of Jim Crow.

All par for the course for a nomination from Bush and His Evil Minions™.